81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Shin-Ra]

Originally Posted by marzetta7

Nielsen/VideoScan Numbers ending October 14th

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom102107/

WE: BD-71% HDD-29% YTD: BD-66% HDD-34% SI: BD-61% HDD-39%

Glad to have contributed with my Edward Scissorhands purchase last week.

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by Shin-Ra

Glad to have contributed with my Edward Scissorhands purchase last week.

And did you go bananas with the BOGO this week?

[Beta-guy]

anyone think this week will be 90/10?

[Slackr89]

Originally Posted by Beta-guy

anyone think this week will be 90/10?

that would be freakin' sweet. but what i think we are all waiting for eventually is 100-0

[Jack Torrance]

Originally Posted by Beta-guy

anyone think this week will be 90/10?

No... it's TRANSFORMERS HD-DVD week. Blu will still win, but it will be closer than last weeks numbers.

[Grisle]

Originally Posted by Beta-guy

anyone think this week will be 90/10?

I wish, but anything above 50% for us is great imo!

[Copywriter]

I ordered two more (non BOGO) BLUs today.

I really need to stop talking with you people about BLU.

[mattym]

looking at this logically, most of us expected hddvd to win next week comfortably, but the BoGoF offer has changed the landscape, so i think 60:40 is reasonable enough, paramount havent been shouting about sales, but then a lot of the amazon and online sales of TF will have been from Europe, seeing as we dont get it until december...

[Trebar]

Originally Posted by cpgator

I am not saying it should be a loss leader. However, if Sony can sell the PS3 for $500 or less - what could they sell it for if it didn't have the gaming parts, HDD, etc - just a BD player?

You seem to think it is a positive that Sony and the other companies can make a lot of money off the early adopters - I don't see that as a good thing. If Sony (or someone else) can make an inexpensive 1080p player - they should.

And regarding "It's only proving over and over that _price does not matter as much as some poeple think" - price does matter, and is one of the big reasons the average consumer has not bought in the HD format. Price matters a lot.

The price does matter a lot in the end. Right now the overall numbers are fairly meaningless as far as overall media sales are considered. I have posted before that the first player that drops below $200 will cause the U.S. adoption to jump from 5-7% to about 20-25%. The 5% group cares about quality above most other factors. The 2nd 20% cares about the overall cost of the entire system just as much as quality. After that group adopts whichever format, then you have the people that don't have any HD components (some might have an LCD TV) but are looking to buy if the price is right (50-60%). That group tends to buy players at $100, Recievers $250, TVs $300-$500 and will try to get by on all the other stuff they have. This group is also not as tech savy so by the time they get on board there can't be anything more complex in the setup than plug in the cables and maybe 2 or 3 menu settings or they will be quite disatisfied.

I hear a lot of banter about who is winning sales and such but the numbers are miniscule in the final tally. Only mass production will determine the next-gen winner, whichever company can do it and still make a profit that is. If they can't get yields up and prices remain over $200 for players and $1000 for decent TVs then HD/Blu will be very slow to supplant DVD. DVD players by this time in the cycle were already dropping to $150 for interlaced back in 1999 when sales finaly took off. I would be very concerned if there is less than 30-40% usage by this time next year due to the rate of technology changing.

Right now we are just finishing the first quarter of the football game. The hardcore fans are cheering Blu but 99% of the world are still flipping channels.

[edgebsl]

Not sure I agree with this.

I bought my first DVD player: a 3rd gen Pioneer form J and R for $299.
I think the prices are ok for this stage of the game.

Blu ray prices will undoubtedly drop. But Toshiba hastened their price drop.
Blu didnt follow suit and has still come out on top.

This was the same for the cd.
First year: expensive.Think a grand.
Second: More like 500 bucks
Third: Start to see players around a few hundred bucks and starts a wider adoption.

CD and DVD followed a 3 to 4 generation step before dropping prices down to joe blow consumer level.

This time Toshiba said "lets just drop the prices right now!"

Interesting it didnt work.

[aristotles]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict 76:24. Transformers on HD DVD is not selling as well as the fanboys were hoping for.

[bhampton]

I think when we win next week, I'm just going to take a vow to ignore HD DUD forever more. I don't enjoy the format war but it's like taking a look at a car wreck as you drive by I am hooked on trying to follow it. It's just making me more sad for the fools that choose HD DUD and I need to just get over it and forget about it.

I hope we win this week.

-Brian

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by Trebar

The price does matter a lot in the end.

I agree but not on hardware. I believe the prices of hardware on a format launched just over a year ago is quite acceptable, given the quality it delivers. The hardware prices can go lower eventually.

I think the bigger dent that can make people, especially those with PS3s, to look into BD is software, that is movies. Though even now I don't think volume can match DVD at the moment, if BD prices are within US$1 of DVD and given similar extras (audio quality of PCM/TrueHD/DTS HDMA is not an extra) then those with PS3s who rarely buy BDs might do so. Right now it's about US$5 to US$20 (box sets) more than DVDs. As we've seen with the BOGO promotion, lowering the prices makes people buy more than they would've.

The reason the BD studios have not done it is because DVD is still their cash cow. Also per disc cost of BD is higher than on DVD. If the replication costs can be reduced further, then the BD studios may be more than amenable to level out their prices to US$1 of DVD. Once they do that, people will be more attracted to buying BD than DVD. Studio support + lower software prices = more BD player adoption and higher sales.


fuad

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

I agree but not on hardware. I believe the prices of hardware on a format launched just over a year ago is quite acceptable, given the quality it delivers. The hardware prices can go lower eventually.

I think the bigger dent that can make people, especially those with PS3s, to look into BD is software, that is movies. Though even now I don't think volume can match DVD at the moment, if BD prices are within US$1 of DVD and given similar extras (audio quality of PCM/TrueHD/DTS HDMA is not an extra) then those with PS3s who rarely buy BDs might do so. Right now it's about US$5 to US$20 (box sets) more than DVDs. As we've seen with the BOGO promotion, lowering the prices makes people buy more than they would've.

I don't know. Do you really think it has to be that close?

I mean, if you have an HDTV and a Blu-ray player already, are you going to buy a DVD when a BD is also available for, say, $5 more? I agree maybe $10 is too much but a $5 difference ($14.99 vs. $19.99) is probably acceptable.

For those who don't have an HDTV, yes maybe it has to be within $1 since they are essentially investing in the future, but if you have an HDTV, I think the prices can be a little futher apart, no?

enjoy
gandalf

P.S. Of course, the price ratio is also important, so for those DVDs that are in the $4.99 bargain bins, a BD will have to come within $1 or $2 to compete. I'm talking mostly about new releases above.

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by gand41f

I don't know. Do you really think it has to be that close?

I mean, if you have an HDTV and a Blu-ray player already, are you going to buy a DVD when a BD is also available for, say, $5 more? I agree maybe $10 is too much but a $5 difference ($14.99 vs. $19.99) is probably acceptable.

Oh it doesn't apply to people with a HDTV and a BD player and not a PS3 owner. Because if you have a dedicated player, you know what you want out of it. The majority of PS3 owners however gets a Trojan device - either for BD playback or games!

I suspect that before 2009 ends either with or without the end of the format war, a plateau of BD player sales would be reached. Then this move - software prices reduction - would be the right move for the studios to do.


fuad

[stringent]

Wow those numbers rule! Great stuff!

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Beta-guy

anyone think this week will be 90/10?

In order to get to a 90:10 on Transformers week, Blu-Ray would have to sell in excess of ~800,000 copies in a single week.

Considering that they are somewhere less than 4 million on the year, that's impossible...BOGO or not.

[powersfoss]

Originally Posted by Beta-guy

anyone think this week will be 90/10?

Transformers week or not, the BD sales with all the BOGOs have been terrific. I'm gonna say 75:25 for blu. I just never seen eproductwars so one sided before. Go Blu!

[gear]

Guys where does eproductwars get their numbers from, is it just amazom or others as well?

[powersfoss]

Originally Posted by gear

Guys where does eproductwars get their numbers from, is it just amazom or others as well?

It's amazon.com only if you can believe that. Can you imagine if all the retailers are reporting similar results?!