81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[gear]

Originally Posted by powersfoss

It's amazon.com only if you can believe that. Can you imagine if all the retailers are reporting similar results?!

Thanks, if others are reporting similar results its going to be really bad week for HD, again.

[Anthony P]

Now I know why I quit going there. Some of the posts are pretty funny. $100 HD DUD players by Easter? Like anyone will care?

he must be thinking at what he will be asking for his HD DVD player and disks on e-bay

[Anthony P]

Totally disagree. The average consumer will want the biggest tv possible with the cheapest components. All you gotta do is go to Wally-World to withness it. They will buy the biggest crapiest TV then want a cheap DVD player. You HAVE to cater to that market no matter how much you hate it as it is probably 90% of the masses. Mass adoption is the only thing that will end the war and to do that you have to have a cheap player. PERIOD....Mark it down!

and that consumer can and will buy a 30$ DVD player which means he is not counted the buyer that wants a decent player and realizes DVD won't give him the HD experience and is willing to pay for it will most likely buy a BD player because that is the way he will get the best and top movies from most studios.

[SolidBlu]

my prediction is 80/20

[Anthony P]

I am not saying it should be a loss leader. However, if Sony can sell the PS3 for $500 or less - what could they sell it for if it didn't have the gaming parts, HDD, etc - just a BD player?

what you are missing is the number of units, what you are also missing is the competitive pricing in gaming machines.

You seem to think it is a positive that Sony and the other companies can make a lot of money off the early adopters - I don't see that as a good thing.

no one is saying that, but what you need to realize is that creating a new format takes a lot of money. That money needs to be recouped somewhere. You might not like that most of it is recouped on the early adopters but it is the only place it can. It might not be fun that Y$ is made on every player but that Y$ will be used to work on the next development and once the sum of Y$ matches what the format cost to develop can the remaining difference really be thought of as profit.

[Anthony P]

I beleive these are the highest numbers I have seen....what are the highest? anyone know?

no, tied for 3 with some other weeks. The top are 3/18 had 81% (CAsino Royal) and 7/22 74% (premonition)

[monkyman]

I think you people that are guessing the sales ratio for this week to be anything more than 55% blu are in for a surprise. None of these charts or sales figures count pre-sales for this week, rather spread out over the last few, but will be included in the Nielsons this week. 50,000-100,000 presales is going to make a big difference in a small HD market.

[powersfoss]

Originally Posted by monkyman

I think you people that are guessing the sales ratio for this week to be anything more than 55% blu are in for a surprise. None of these charts or sales figures count pre-sales for this week, rather spread out over the last few, but will be included in the Nielsons this week. 50,000-100,000 presales is going to make a big difference in a small HD market.

It is my understanding that sales count when your credit card is charged, *not* the shipping date.

[Anthony P]

my guess 60:40

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by powersfoss

It is my understanding that sales count when your credit card is charged, *not* the shipping date.

Amazon don't usually charge before they at least start the shipping process.

I have seen some evidence thought that this can happen on a Sunday. It does seem though that for the 2 for 1 they got quite behind in shipping out discs...

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by powersfoss

It is my understanding that sales count when your credit card is charged, *not* the shipping date.

Yes, it is charged when shipped, but the pre-sales for transformers were not counted when shipped, rather when ordered. Meaning their is probibly thousands of copys NOT in this weeks sales charts, rather spread over the last few weeks. This is why you see Spiderman at say, number 50 on the sales now, because the orders count now on the sales charts, not the week it ships.
It will however count on the Neilsons this week, meaning no matter how good the sales charts looked this week, if you add in the thousands of pre-orders, Transformers and HD-DVD may do better than you think.

[powersfoss]

Originally Posted by monkyman

Yes, it is charged when shipped, but the pre-sales for transformers were not counted when shipped, rather when ordered. Meaning their is probibly thousands of copys NOT in this weeks sales charts, rather spread over the last few weeks. This is why you see Spiderman at say, number 50 on the sales now, because the orders count now on the sales charts, not the week it ships.
It will however count on the Neilsons this week, meaning no matter how good the sales charts looked this week, if you add in the thousands of pre-orders, Transformers and HD-DVD may do better than you think.

How is it that the Nielsen/VideoScan ratings count a movie when the charge goes on the credit card at pre-order time and count for that week, but in this case you're saying all those pre-orders will be counted the week the movie is released? Which one is it?

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by powersfoss

How is it that the Nielsen/VideoScan ratings count a movie when the charge goes on the credit card at pre-order time and count for that week, but in this case you're saying all those pre-orders will be counted the week the movie is released? Which one is it?

Amazon shows the sale on the top 100 when ordered, reguardless of the sale date, Neilson only counts the date Amazon reports the sale as completed.

Again, look at Spiderman on Amazon, It is in the top 100 sales today, because it is being pre-ordered. Neilson however will not count it until it is actually paid for and Amazon reports that sale.

On the release day, pre-orders will not show up on Amazon again as sales, or eproduct wars.

You never know how many copys of a movie have been pre-ordered.

[TJones8124]

He is saying that the Amazon charts report pre-orders/sales the day that the customer purchases/puts them in the cart and checks out. The N-Ratings show items sold the day they ship.

So, even if the Amazon showed Transformers at #100 this week, you still have all of the presales that are not counted in Amazon's ranking for this week (they were counted previous weeks). These presales will be counted in the Neilsen's for this week, the week in which the disc is actually shipped (and can therefore be counted as sold).

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by monkyman

Amazon shows the sale on the top 100 when ordered, reguardless of the sale date, Neilson only counts the date Amazon reports the sale as completed.

Yes, but I don't think any of that is relevant. Transformers is the number one selling title this week in high-def world by a wide margin.

The only "chart" people are talking about is the average sales rankings (in number from top position, not number of units sold) at Amazon. Although a good measure to gauge general trends when the distribution of both formats are similar, it is notoriously unreliable when there is one huge-selling title (as it is this week). Transformers can go from #10 to #5 and double the sales (for instance), but that will only count as 0.5 in the average of top 10. The tenth best selling Blu-ray title can sell one unit and move up from #1000 to #995, and that will count as the same 0.5. However, in terms of number of units sold (what Nielsen reports, and the only number that counts), we're probably talking a difference of a few thousand versus one.

That's an extreme example, but HD-DVD can easily win this week while only having one movie in the top ten high-def sellers.

And I'm not saying it's a particularly big deal if they do. In baseball analogy, it's like a base hit in the 9th inning of a no-hitter with the score 15-0. Or in American football, a field goal with 5 seconds left of a 42-0 game. (Hey, isn't that like the Nielsen weekly score this year?) Or in Association football, a goal in the injury time in the second half with the score 8-0. (Or a hockey game of 21-0 or a rugby match of 116-0 or...sorry, don't know enough about cricket to come up with a reasonably outrageous score here. ) The losing team is still going to lose, they will just have avoided going into the record book as being completely shut out.

enjoy
gandalf

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

Oh it doesn't apply to people with a HDTV and a BD player and not a PS3 owner. Because if you have a dedicated player, you know what you want out of it. The majority of PS3 owners however gets a Trojan device - either for BD playback or games!

Sorry, I meant PS3s too when I said "Blu-ray player". It includes people who bought the PS3s primarily for games but do know it plays Blu-ray movies too and have an HDTV so they can see the difference. I still think those who are willing to pay $14.99 for a new release DVD can be convinced to pay $19.99 for a Blu-ray relatively easily.

Catalogue titles are a different story. Now we're competing with $4.99 clearance bin DVDs and people may already own the movie in DVD. Those will have to be a whole lot cheaper than $19.99.

enjoy
gandalf

P.S. My 750th post!

[powersfoss]

Originally Posted by monkyman

Amazon shows the sale on the top 100 when ordered, reguardless of the sale date, Neilson only counts the date Amazon reports the sale as completed.

Again, look at Spiderman on Amazon, It is in the top 100 sales today, because it is being pre-ordered. Neilson however will not count it until it is actually paid for and Amazon reports that sale.

On the release day, pre-orders will not show up on Amazon again as sales, or eproduct wars.

You never know how many copys of a movie have been pre-ordered.

Alright, I think I see what you mean. Still though, even considering all the pre-sales, with all the new blu releases and BOGOs, I will still predict a win. How does 55:45 sound? More realistic?

I hope it's more than that but if you're basically saying blu is going up against all pre-orders for Transformers then I guess I should just be happy with a win at all no matter how slim. Now I'm really glad I bought 10 BDs last week.

We'll find out Friday. Go BLU!

[Sonny]

we have to wait till friday for the #'s ,if all the BOGO are counted there is no reason Blu-Ray cant win the week by a 60/40 & even if they dont whats 1 week anyway, (even as much as I'll hate it) & Blu-Ray's perfect streak will be lost, but in the grand sceem of things this is just a blip on the radar. I just dont need the hd-duders boasting how they won, when in truth they have lost there a$$ with the hole FORMAT!!!!!!!!!!

[Lee Christie]

Originally Posted by Sonny

we have to wait till friday for the #'s ,if all the BOGO are counted there is no reason Blu-Ray cant win the week by a 60/40 & even if they dont whats 1 week anyway, (even as much as I'll hate it) & Blu-Ray's perfect streak will be lost, but in the grand sceem of things this is just a blip on the radar. I just dont need the hd-duders boasting how they won, when in truth they have lost there a$$ with the hole FORMAT!!!!!!!!!!

Breaking Blu-ray's streak could be damning for consumer confidence if the HDUDers made a big enough deal of it. Format wars can be won or lost by public perception and consensus reality not by actual reality. That's why transformers worries me. But not take any note of me, i'm a pessimist.

[PS3Maniac]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

Breaking Blu-ray's streak could be damning for consumer confidence if the HDUDers made a big enough deal of it. Format wars can be won or lost by public perception and consensus reality not by actual reality. That's why transformers worries me. But not take any note of me, i'm a pessimist.

Just remember, though. If anyone tries to use that line on you, just bring up the bribe, and that should shut up all but the most diehard DUDders.