81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[The Big Blue]

Maybe I'm missing something obvious but why the Blu-ray drop from Q1>Q2?

[davidPS3]

Originally Posted by aphex

If we lose transformers week, then I think there's a chance we might lose this week too. 2001, The Shining and Clockwork orange are all delayed on amazon and other internet sites long enough to stop them from counting in this weeks sales. Although I heard best buy has theres and they make up most sales, hddvd might still win with there's more readily available along with tf residual sales. Not to mention last weeks bogo may affect this weeks sales(ppl being broke).

But if we win this week then we aint got shit to worry about.

I think your getting ahead of yourself here. We do not know if we lost last week, we will know the numbers this friday. To then go on and say we are going to lose this week is over the top. Blu has been winning every week, yes there is a chance we could have lost last week, but we don't know yet.
Let's keep the positive vibe going here.

[Go Blu]

I still believe we won the week.

Even when you look a the most conservative of numbers and each only making one BOGO purchase thats a pretty impressive number. More than 190k at any rate.

I still think it is interesting that they posted the press release a week before Fridays numbers are out. I think they needed to get in their hype before the results. Which they prob already know are not favorable to them.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by The Big Blue

Maybe I'm missing something obvious but why the Blu-ray drop from Q1>Q2?

Fox and MGM hiatus.

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Odd. I picked them all up last night...grabbing them out of a massive stack of each. This was at a Best Buy.

Yesterday, I Picked up with no problem about 7 films at Best Buy, all the new releases (& 1 catalog title) I wanted anyway.

[CptGreedle]

I think we are doing well. HD-DVD can't keep up the pace like that for long, since we have so many releases coming out soon and so much more support.
I estimate that if Transformers was on BD, it could have made about $2 million in addition to the HD-DVD sales.
Sucks to me Paramount.

[yakman]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

I estimate that if Transformers was on BD, it could have made about $2 million in addition to the HD-DVD sales.
Sucks to me Paramount.

$2 million as opposed to that a $150 million check?

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by yakman

$2 million as opposed to that a $150 million check?

That $2 million is just a little off.....if the cost to my distributor is around $25 and the claim of 190k HD sold is accurate, then BR could have sold as much as 400k last week which would have been a loss of around $10 million.

Still $150 million check and the loss of $10 million in BR sales, it's a win. The problem is it's not just Transformers, you still have Shrek 3 and heck remember they didn't release BoG back in August. Also all the little boxoffice titles they are losing on. Then next year when Iron Man comes out only on HD, they could lose another $10+ million off that titles alone if they don't release it on BR.

So my point is yes, right now it was a good move to just take the check if all they wanted was money. However the longer you get into the contract the less sense it makes because it seems BR is only getting bigger.

[The Big Blue]

Also, my understanding about the bribe was that it was split 100M/50M (can't remember for certain which got the bigger share but I think it was DW)

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by The Big Blue

Also, my understanding about the bribe was that it was split 100M/50M (can't remember for certain which got the bigger share but I think it was DW)

paramount got 100 million, dreamworks got 50 million.

[yakman]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

That $2 million is just a little off.....if the cost to my distributor is around $25 and the claim of 190k HD sold is accurate, then BR could have sold as much as 400k last week which would have been a loss of around $10 million.

Still $150 million check and the loss of $10 million in BR sales, it's a win. The problem is it's not just Transformers, you still have Shrek 3 and heck remember they didn't release BoG back in August. Also all the little boxoffice titles they are losing on. Then next year when Iron Man comes out only on HD, they could lose another $10+ million off that titles alone if they don't release it on BR.

So my point is yes, right now it was a good move to just take the check if all they wanted was money. However the longer you get into the contract the less sense it makes because it seems BR is only getting bigger.

So, at $10 million lost sales for Transformers Paramount can do that another 14 times in the next 16 months and break even on the deal. Then there is selling it as a Blu-ray catalog title to consider. I don't think Paramount has the ability to release another Transformers nearly every 4 weeks for the next 16 months.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

paramount got 100 million, dreamworks got 50 million.

I thought it was the other way around. Paramount $50 mil, Dreamworks $100 mil.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by yakman

So, at $10 million lost sales for Transformers Paramount can do that another 14 times in the next 16 months and break even on the deal. Then there is selling it as a Blu-ray catalog title to consider. I don't think Paramount has the ability to release another Transformers nearly every 4 weeks for the next 16 months.

Correct....if sales patterns say exactly the same. Going into 4th qtr next year Iron Man could sale 4 times the amount of Transformers for all we know.

My point was as time goes on it's obvious there are going to be a ton of Bluray players added. If PS3 is basically winning for BR right now when every analyst has said it has pretty poor sales for a console....imagine this new price change with their heavy hitting games next year. There could be 20+ million PS3's out their next year in the 4th qtr......yes it's very possible they lose money on the deal. Remember the contract expires after the 1st qtr of 2009. That is a lot of titles.

btw, Transformers sales is for one WEEK. Shrek 3 is coming up and made almost as much money in the boxoffice. So as much as you would like to think it's not possible to to accumlate that much in sales for BR in the next 18 months.....you could be wrong.

[simpsonps121]

An interesting thought - I wonder how much the Best Buy sale of the Xbox 360 HD-DVD Drive will impact this war.

I would assume they will sell out of their existing stock of HD-DVD drives. (I have no clue what that is...)

I checked CAG - as of last night they had over 30K views of thier topic. I did not check SD and FW.

Let's say that 30K buy the drive. That is 30K more that bought for the express intent of buying HD-movies. That may swing this war 5% of so...

But what do I know..

Matthew

[clyon]

Originally Posted by simpsonps121

An interesting thought - I wonder how much the Best Buy sale of the Xbox 360 HD-DVD Drive will impact this war.

I would assume they will sell out of their existing stock of HD-DVD drives. (I have no clue what that is...)

I checked CAG - as of last night they had over 30K views of thier topic. I did not check SD and FW.

Let's say that 30K buy the drive. That is 30K more that bought for the express intent of buying HD-movies. That may swing this war 5% of so...

But what do I know..

Matthew

$179 is the MSRP
no sale on Bestbuy web site, is there an instore sale or something?

30k untils is a big stretch. Most of the people that wanted one alreadly have the add-on's, 10,000 sold the last I have read.

[WickyWoo]

People will buy it for the freebies, it's unlikely they'll get hardcore into it

If anything, they'll use it to Flix HD DVDs are rip them

[simpsonps121]

ok, this is a huge post on CAG, SD, FW.
Basically $179 for HD-Player, Heroes Season 1, and any 2 Free HD-Movies $34.99 or less. Player includes King Kong and also the rebate for the 5 free HD-DVD's. (Granted, the movies stink.)

Matthew

[blitz6speed]

This is CAG you are talking about, they'll buy the whole bundle, then sell everything off peice by peice, making an extra 100+ in the process. Thats why they are called Cheap Ass Gamers.

[ryoohki]

Hey... don't you guys think that the release of Star Trek : TV Series is DVD/HD DVD combo (without a DVD release) will boost the Neisel Videoscan number and screw everything in the stats. Since all those ST fan without a HD DVD player will have to buy this boxset to watch it..

[mycroft]

Originally Posted by clyon

$179 is the MSRP
no sale on Bestbuy web site, is there an instore sale or something?

30k untils is a big stretch. Most of the people that wanted one alreadly have the add-on's, 10,000 sold the last I have read.

NPD estimates that there are around 250-300K add-ons, not 10K. Where did you hear this 10K number? I notice you've asserted it before, but it's still wrong, no matter how many times you say it
Even at 300K, they're still only at 5% of xbox user penetration. However, considering how well the XBox sold this month, if 5% of the new users buy the addon, that's 25000 new addons last month (compared to 120K new PS3 users)