81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[WickyWoo]

The amazon rankings were really not strong for spidey's. Presales were way worse then transformers. Hell right now spidey 3 isn't even in the top 10 a week and a bit after launch on amazon.

Don't forget sales are split on the box and single

[dobyblue]

Spider-man 3 has been way more in the public view than Transformers was.

My gf and I were doing groceries on Monday night and at the self scan all 8 scanners had a big "Spider-man 3" DVD thingy above the customer display screen saying "Dont forget your copy of Spider-man 3 on DVD"

In between the pharmacy and electronics area there was a massive Spider-man display with the trilogy and both widescreen DVD versions.

Spider-man 3 will have sold well and I'm sure the Blu-ray versions will have also.

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Don't forget sales are split on the box and single

and dont forget BB, the largest retailer for HDM actually had teh lowest price......if BB sells th emost with inflated prices, i can only imagine how many they sell when they advertise the LOWEST price for the box set

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by blu2

Here's the article on the 90K number:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6498141.html

This is Walmart, Circuit City, Best Buy, etc.

That's a significant bump up in a few days.

Last I heard, I think the number of HD DVD standalones was somewhere around 400-500K, so if so, that's a 20+% increase in a few days.

Time will tell on the media sales.

That 400,000 number was for all standalone players; 53% HD DVD, 44% Blu-ray and 3% Dual format. That works out to roughly 212,000, 176,000 and 12,000 respectively.

That was from the first week of October at the HDTV conference.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Flux88MPH

I did however explain that neither was a full count of the population and only a survey or poll just like any other.

This right here sums up the problem I have with your statements.

If you ask me how many Blu-Rays I have, and I say 50, I could be lying. I could misremember. I could have known I was going to be asked so rushed out to buy more, or sold off some I already had.

If you go to my home and count my Blu-Rays, and I have 50, there is zero room for wiggle room. I have 50. No more, no less. No ambiguity. No flex room. No possible manipulation of the numbers.

The former is what they do for TV ratings. The latter is what they do for Disc sales.

Now it is possible that they only hit stores which a certain demographic of person shops at. But by hitting 60% of retailers including the largest, the probability of a significant demographic getting ignored is near zero.

It is also possible that the stores themselves lie about the numbers sold. However any store which did so would eventually end up with some severe litigation. They aren't telling approximates, they are telling exact numbers.

The rest of what you've built up is just drivel based on your mistaken assumptions that informal polls are somehow equivalent to hard numbers.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Don't forget sales are split on the box and single

Exactly. A #30 + #70 = ???

[Blubaru]

I’m pretty worried about this week.
If they sold as many players as they said this could be a problem.

100,000+ players X 10 free movies per player = about 1,000,000 movies plus what ever other crap sales they have going on.

1,000,000 will most certainly beat anything we sell.



Lets hope those free movies won’t count

[WickyWoo]

and dont forget BB, the largest retailer for HDM actually had teh lowest price......if BB sells th emost with inflated prices, i can only imagine how many they sell when they advertise the LOWEST price for the box set

No, they don't. They sell at what is needed to make a profit at a B&M. Stores people can't survive on Amazon's 5% margins.

[Flux88MPH]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

This right here sums up the problem I have with your statements.

If you ask me how many Blu-Rays I have, and I say 50, I could be lying. I could misremember. I could have known I was going to be asked so rushed out to buy more, or sold off some I already had.

If you go to my home and count my Blu-Rays, and I have 50, there is zero room for wiggle room. I have 50. No more, no less. No ambiguity. No flex room. No possible manipulation of the numbers.

The former is what they do for TV ratings. The latter is what they do for Disc sales.

Now it is possible that they only hit stores which a certain demographic of person shops at. But by hitting 60% of retailers including the largest, the probability of a significant demographic getting ignored is near zero.

It is also possible that the stores themselves lie about the numbers sold. However any store which did so would eventually end up with some severe litigation. They aren't telling approximates, they are telling exact numbers.

The rest of what you've built up is just drivel based on your mistaken assumptions that informal polls are somehow equivalent to hard numbers.

The problem here is that if we went to your house and counted we would all assess the total count. The difference between this and Nielsen is that NOT EVERY SALE IS COUNTED and the 40% portion that isn’t is guesstimated based on the other sales at other retailers. People that shop at Wal-Mart have different buying habits than those who shop at places like Magnolia Hi-Fi/Best Buy and Amazon.

Nielsen numbers are kind of like Sex Panther from Anchorman.

Brian Fantana (Paul Rudd) on Sex Panther-
“They've done studies, you know. They say 60% of the time, it works every time.”

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

No, they don't. They sell at what is needed to make a profit at a B&M. Stores people can't survive on Amazon's 5% margins.

WickyWoo, they did. I bought it for $60.99 at BB, it was in their add.

At the time of the release, amazon was $62.xx....they are now $.04 cheaper than what i paid...but my point stands nontheless =)

[Jimbo976]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

I’m pretty worried about this week.
If they sold as many players as they said this could be a problem.

100,000+ players X 10 free movies per player = about 1,000,000 movies plus what ever other crap sales they have going on.

1,000,000 will most certainly beat anything we sell.



Lets hope those free movies won’t count

10 free movies? I don't think the A2's at Walmart had any free movies other than the 5 you can mail in for. The A3 has 2 or 3 titles in the box with them but I don't think the A2 does. The 5 free movies by mail certainly don't count for sales either.

And since the majority of those players in the firesale were sold at Walmart and Walmart software sales are not part of the Nielsens then I don't think there is much to worry about on the direct sale of these boxes.

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

I’m pretty worried about this week.
If they sold as many players as they said this could be a problem.

100,000+ players X 10 free movies per player = about 1,000,000 movies plus what ever other crap sales they have going on.

1,000,000 will most certainly beat anything we sell.



Lets hope those free movies won’t count

well, 5 are mail in and 2 are i box. Also, thats for the A3 only, in store (IE Best Buy or CC..)...not at walmart. So your numbers are insane

[w_tanoto]

question: which shop counts towards nilsen number? i know dvd empire is not.
how about playusa.com?

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Flux88MPH

The problem here is that if we went to your house and counted we would all assess the total count. The difference between this and Nielsen is that NOT EVERY SALE IS COUNTED and the 40% portion that isn’t is guesstimated based on the other sales at other retailers. People that shop at Wal-Mart have different buying habits than those who shop at places like Magnolia Hi-Fi/Best Buy and Amazon.

Nielsen numbers are kind of like Sex Panther from Anchorman.

Brian Fantana (Paul Rudd) on Sex Panther-
“They've done studies, you know. They say 60% of the time, it works every time.”

Wal*Mart's HD movies right now pale in comparison to Best Buy, Circiut City and Amazon.

[Iron Man]

I expect at least a 70-30 split this friday.

Fantastic Four: Rise of the silver surfer managed to make 71-29

[mel2]

It really depends on how many combined sales for spidey 3 and the boxset. if it's over 100k I see an easy 20 point swing just like transformers did when it sold around 100k. If so then I see around 75:25 for the week. remember, we had a bogo deal that week and transformers still managed a 20 point swing. all hd dvd had the spidey week was that friday of liquidated players. I just wonder why sony is soooo late with reporting their numbers. I do have a feeling that ratatouille will sell 170k and set a new high def record.

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by Steverhcp02

and dont forget BB, the largest retailer for HDM actually had teh lowest price......if BB sells th emost with inflated prices, i can only imagine how many they sell when they advertise the LOWEST price for the box set

I cancelled my Amazon order to buy at Best Buy since it was slightly cheaper and I had it on release day without having to wait.

[Blu Titan]

I am confident that we are going to be very happy on Friday!

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

Wal*Mart's HD movies right now pale in comparison to Best Buy, Circiut City and Amazon.

Especially considering most of them dont carry any at all. I suspect Wal-Mart is not the first place anyone thinks of when buying HD DVD or Blu-Ray.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Flux88MPH

The problem here is that if we went to your house and counted we would all assess the total count. The difference between this and Nielsen is that NOT EVERY SALE IS COUNTED and the 40% portion that isn’t is guesstimated based on the other sales at other retailers. People that shop at Wal-Mart have different buying habits than those who shop at places like Magnolia Hi-Fi/Best Buy and Amazon.

I addressed this in the exact post you responded to.

If you don't see that 60% is a statistically significant sample, then you are completely hopeless.

They include the two largest offline and the largest online media provider for HDM.

Just because it's not 100% doesn't mean it's useless, or wrong.

And yet again you deflect. I'm explaining to you why it's not the same as TV rankings and you deflect it to "It's not perfect". Of course it's not. That is irrelevant. Completely irrelevant.

You have to provide a better reason to not trust it then "It's not perfect".

Stop the endless deflections. You have an undefensible position and I think you know it, because you are slippery as an eel.