81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by baccusboy

Blu-ray has a VERY weak summer. It's very disappointing, actually.

They could have gone in for the kill, but instead, it's nothing but 300 and a bunch of crap.

Even with a "crap" summer, they outsell hd-dvd which has released 2x the software. Late Q3 and Q4 are now the target. I guarantee you, we will be seeing a HUGE push.

[Smackos]

Originally Posted by The Don

well, they just had 17 titles released a few weeks ago...

this could explain why they made it look so close last week

Agreed mate but it's the same old story, new releases get the lions share of sales and the back catalogue titles are just fillers that most people overlook. I know thats generalising things but for the most part it's true.

[phloyd]

The Patriot is a catalog title and it did pretty well on BD.

[Anthony P]

Blu-ray has a VERY weak summer. It's very disappointing, actually.

They could have gone in for the kill,

don't forget there are many ways to show the obvious. Hopefully one of them will make the other person think.


Showing a blockbuster will have more sales on A instead of B is one of them

Showing that a good week on one and a bad week on the other still has more sales for the one with a bad week is an other

Back in early Q1 every HD DVD fanboy was either “it is just people trying it out” or “it is because there are some good BD titles but no good HD DVD titles”(which was always a bit funny since they also would say that there were tons of HD DVD but no BD titles that they wanted). It is easy for people and companies that want to mislead or want to be mislead to try and dismiss how much better BD is doing. On the other hand a few weeks where HD DVD should have an advantage and yet sales like crap will show the reality of the situation “More people are buying BD and more people will always buy BD because more people have devices that can play BD.”

[GoldenRedux]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

On the other hand a few weeks where HD DVD should have an advantage and yet sales like crap will show the reality of the situation “More people are buying BD and more people will always buy BD because more people have devices that can play BD.”

Perhaps this was the master plan behind the BDA's reasoning to slow Summer releases all along? Perhaps they knew that they would still outsell HD-DVD, even with little to no releases, thus proving once and for all to hollywood and the average consumer who really reigns supreme. The calm before the storm.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

“More people are buying BD and more people will always buy BD because more people have devices that can play BD.”

Exactly.

BTW, welcome aboard! We all saw your goodbye post on AVS. It may have been archived in the HD Rant thread.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by GoldenRedux

Perhaps this was the master plan behind the BDA's reasoning to slow Summer releases all along? Perhaps they knew that they would still outsell HD-DVD, even with little to no releases, thus proving once and for all to hollywood and the average consumer who really reigns supreme. The calm before the storm.

Sales are slower in the summer. And people that have been working their arses off at the home vid divisions need to take some time away from work.

It seems clear that Universal chose the wrong time to go on hiatus (Q1) and the wrong time to open the floodgates (now).

Gary

[Anthony P]

it did not do too badly in the ranking, but let's face it, it was #4 and sold 82.3% of the top title. It was beaten by three titles that had sold reasonably well and have been out for some time. My guess is that that week was most likely a slow week more then a good performance by the Patriot.

I also think that being independence day during the week might have helped it a bit (I would have guessed Untouchables would have done better, but then again I never saw The Patriot).

[Anthony P]

Perhaps this was the master plan behind the BDA's reasoning to slow Summer releases all along? Perhaps they knew that they would still outsell HD-DVD, even with little to no releases, thus proving once and for all to hollywood and the average consumer who really reigns supreme. The calm before the storm.

don't know if it is a master plan, the summer is a bad time for releases, people take vacations, spend more time outdoors then in their cave... My guess they most likely thought that waiting until fall and Christmas for the good stuff would mean better sales. I just think they assume (and so do I) that it won't be bad for BD (like someone mentioned earlier).

PS studios do stuff like that all the time (analyse the benefits and ramifications of releasing a title a certain date). That ius what I find funny when I see people post "so and so posponed their BD/HD DVD date for title X". I always ask myself if the guy just crawled out from under a rock because that has always happened with DVD. If studio X has too strong a title you will see the rest moving theirs so that they don't lose sales.

[Anthony P]

Exactly.

BTW, welcome aboard! We all saw your goodbye post on AVS. It may have been archived in the HD Rant thread.

thanks for the welcome. I still hope there is hope for AVS, but I could not take the garbage that is allowed to be posted there any more. I don't fully blame the mods (like some here) and even less the owners, I just think the HD DVD mafia was there to abuse a system of moderation that was not working.

I also did not assume that my letter would stay there long, but every time someone disappeared who’s name I recognized I always wondered why and I felt a good bye was in order.


PS one of the reason that I decided to register here was seeing a bunch of people I recognized from there (like you) who used to (or still are) making intelligent posts.

[Anthony P]

It seems clear that Universal chose the wrong time to go on hiatus (Q1) and the wrong time to open the floodgates (now).

not sure about that, my guess is that Universal is thinking this is the best chance for them to have a good week and make some BS excuses. I can't imagine GE looks at all the details, but they are not dumb either. Sooner or later (if Universal wants it or not) GE will need to see results.

Let’s face it, even some intelligent people (that don’t tend to make delusional posts) on AVS thought that Universal had a chance (though slim) to take one of the last weeks in June.

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

not sure about that, my guess is that Universal is thinking this is the best chance for them to have a good week and make some BS excuses. I can't imagine GE looks at all the details, but they are not dumb either. Sooner or later (if Universal wants it or not) GE will need to see results.

Let’s face it, even some intelligent people (that don’t tend to make delusional posts) on AVS thought that Universal had a chance (though slim) to take one of the last weeks in June.

I thought the week with 12 exculsives was for sure going to be that week. I mean, they had the hd-dvd price drop sale, 12 exclusives, etc. The blockbuster news just thrashed any chance of hd-dvd winning ever again. I will admit that hd-dvd DID have some momentum till right before the BBV announcement, it all went to waste right after.

[Blu Titan]

To be honest, I think that HD DUD is going to get blasted on the Nielsen's the next couple of weeks. They are releasing zero titles for the 17th. In addition, they are releasing a whole bunch of titles that have been "played" out, or have marginal consumer interest on the 24th. I have an MBA in business administration (not that that makes me more knowledgeable than anybody else here), and it is very amusing some of the posts I have read lately. Currently, the Blu-Ray camp has all of the options. They have a strong alliance, and superior software sales (which will greatly increase in Q4). Toshiba is basically utilizing the only viable strategy left to them, which is price reductions on HD DVD players. Sony could do a millions things to increase sales of Blu-Ray players or software, if it needed to. At this point Sony is maintaining nice profit margins, while Toshiba is basically trying to stay afloat. I think that Sony's strategy regarding the promotion of the Blu-Ray format will be discussed in future textbook editions of business strategy. The end of year numbers (software sales) will be Blu-ray 75-80% of the total HD market. Red boyiz read it , and weep.

[Anthony P]

BlueNeon


agree

[dobyblue]

I believe that Blu-ray will have 90-10 sales in November and December all thanks to just two exclusives.

Spider-man 3
Pirates 3

Add in all the other movies whether neutral or exclusive like the Harry Potter movies, Transformers, Ratatouille, Die Hard 4, FF4SS, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

HD DVD is dead in the water.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by monkyman

Actually no, If the weekly numbers went down to 51% blu and 49% HD-DVD, the YTD and SI numbers would start to go down as a result also.

Here's another thought, now that blockbuster is renting only blu-ray, there may be a tendency in some people to go out and rent a new release rather than buy it.

You are correct on item 1. The weekly number has to exceed the metric you are tracking against (YTD or SI) if you want it to increase that number otherwise it erodes it.

You are probably wrong on item 2. The more exposure something gets the better. There may be hiccups in buying through this phase but more than liekly having rentals available will drive sales. Also, I'm assuming that the copies the rental companies buy count as unit sales.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Let’s face it, even some intelligent people (that don’t tend to make delusional posts) on AVS thought that Universal had a chance (though slim) to take one of the last weeks in June.

Hey, *I* did too (you can look it up here). I figured the 14:2 week would result in a pre-order booking effect that would have HD DVD get a slight win.

I'm absolutely shocked that the Universal Catalog Society crowd was nowhere to be seen. It's as if Universal didn't release a darn thing (the numbers didn't really budge).

Gary

[GoldenRedux]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Hey, *I* did too (you can look it up here). I figured the 14:2 week would result in a pre-order booking effect that would have HD DVD get a slight win.

I'm absolutely shocked that the Universal Catalog Society crowd was nowhere to be seen. It's as if Universal didn't release a darn thing (the numbers didn't really budge).

Gary

I never for one minute believed that they would take the lead or even make it close. I couldn't see how they could with so few players and so much fewer titles. Even in the slow release weeks for Blu-ray, people were going back and buying back-titles that they missed previously. There is no way for the red crowd to catch up, the way I figure it.

[ra1024]

I think the reality is starting to sink in with the HD DVD supporters. Only the die hard fanatics (MS employees?) are claiming HD DVD still has a chance.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by GoldenRedux

I never for one minute believed that they would take the lead or even make it close. I couldn't see how they could with so few players and so much fewer titles.

My opinion was based on how the pre-order booking had dominated the sales numbers for months. No emotion. It was merely an opinion based on the stats.

But, leading up to the big day the rankings on Amazon was a clue that pre-orders on those Uni catalog titles weren't all that hot. Probably because the quality issue was already front and center and everyone was in wait and see for the reviews. But, it seems Uni didn't send out many discs beforehand since the reviews have slowly trickled in since (PQ still mediocre across the board).

Originally Posted by GoldenRedux

Even in the slow release weeks for Blu-ray, people were going back and buying back-titles that they missed previously.

Last weeks Nielsen's backs that up. Top 8 to BD, and a good spread of sales.

Originally Posted by GoldenRedux

There is no way for the red crowd to catch up, the way I figure it.

The 14:2 week was the last gasp IMHO. HD DVD had to show a signficiant swing in sales. They had to give every user and studio a moment of pause. But, it was a complete failure. The numbers were as if HD DVD hadn't released a thing and both sides were coasting.

HD DVD is now a dead format. The last few weeks have shown that the Uni catalog that they are able/willing to release doesn't have enough appeal even to the zealots desperate for content to make a blip.

Some, are hoping HD DVD hangs on. But, the prevailing attitude in retail, media, users and the studios is that the war must end for HD discs to really catch on. And, despite that meaning some lost sales, the strategic decision is to drop HD DVD and push Blu-ray.

Some point to TotalHD MIA as indication that even Warner has come to realize this.

Gary