81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[GasCat]

Originally Posted by Iceman

Hey, if you can't win you can at least try to sabotage the whole market...

Yup, that's been the M$ strategy all along.

It's funny the Blu makers had to step things up because of HD-DVD. Now the VOD market is having to do the same thing. I think the studios are catching their breath right now.

[Smackos]

VOD will have the same impact as Rentals, there will always be a part of the market that will want them and that's fair enough but anyone that thinks that it will REPLACE disk sales fully is just straight wrong. Reason.. people like myself would rather have a physical, tangible media that they really do feel they own rather than clinging to the hope that such and such company will always be in business, always have the service up and running and always want to offer you that 17 year old film that nobody else watches anymore that you still want. Also, if VOD REALLY took off then the companies letting you download through them will start to baulk at the prices of bandwidth they're paying out on. If any inroads happen it'll be more with the rental market than the buying market.

The one thing people forget about buying films on demand is that whilst the likes of microsoft "let" you re-download them on xbox live for example it's a different kettle of fish to the likes of itunes. That music you buy on itunes is still in your possession at all times, it's always stored on your player, your pc etc. You don't have this with VOD, it's just the ability to re-rent any given movie again for the same money as having your own copy at home..

Back on topic now.. anyone want to have a guess as to what to expect by January for the average weekly percentage figures Blu-ray to HD DVD to be?

[phloyd]

I am running with 80:20 in favour of BD for the holiday season prediction.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by patrick99

These posts are expressing the latest HD DVD talking point: which format is winning the format war? DVD.

DVD is certainly not growing much as a format, and both HD formats are.

So, rather than saying DVD is winning, it would be more accurate to say that DVD isn't losing its king of the mountain status as fast as people had hoped.

And it is the war that is to blame. I'm convinced a lot of people are simply waiting for a resolution.

Gary

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

DVD is certainly not growing much as a format, and both HD formats are.

So, rather than saying DVD is winning, it would be more accurate to say that DVD isn't losing its king of the mountain status as fast as people had hoped.

And it is the war that is to blame. I'm convinced a lot of people are simply waiting for a resolution.

Gary

I wholeheartedly agree.

[goodstuff]

Final DVDEmpire 7/10 week numbers:



http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365841484489

[Zotar]

Brilliant news.

If anyone wants a laugh, then go over to thedvdforums.com where an HD-DUD fanboi has posted a link to these very stats as proof that Blu-ray is no longer enjoying a 2:1 sales advantage over HD-DVD and that it is more like 3:2 with it "getting pretty close to 1:1".

Me thinks he linked to this page before the final weekend stats came in. All together very funny, and I couldn't resist a chuckle about it on post 69.

Zotar

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by Zotar

Brilliant news.

If anyone wants a laugh, then go over to thedvdforums.com where an HD-DUD fanboi has posted a link to these very stats as proof that Blu-ray is no longer enjoying a 2:1 sales advantage over HD-DVD and that it is more like 3:2 with it "getting pretty close to 1:1".

Me thinks he linked to this page before the final weekend stats came in. All together very funny, and I couldn't resist a chuckle about it on post 69.

Zotar

That Mars Bar comeback is a classic.

[goodstuff]

Apparently midnightwatcher did the same thing at AVS, citing an earlier chart that showed only 53/47 for the 7/10 week and called it an HD-DVD "comeback". The new chart with the final numbers was posted over there as well

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=873846

[groovyone]

Originally Posted by goodstuff

Apparently midnightwatcher did the same thing at AVS, citing an earlier chart that showed only 53/47 for the 7/10 week and called it an HD-DVD "comeback". The new chart with the final numbers was posted over there as well

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=873846

He kept reffering to it too, and hasn't commented yet now that the final numbers are out and show a very different story!

[GoldenRedux]

Pwnadge!

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

well not really, if it is the same then it neither increases nor erodes.

As for the rest even though mathematically you are right, we have rounded numbers, so my guess is that even if it became 51:49 one week it would most likely mean that very few movies have sold and so no change in either SI or YTD that is visible

Just look at it so far YTD has been the same since May 20th and SI has been the same for 2 weeks and was the same (1% different from this week) for 4 other weeks.

You are still comparing to 50/50 rather than the metric in question. A 51:49 week would slightly lower the YTD and SI figures since both are higher than 51:49. However you probably wouldn't see it because there are far greater total numbers in the YTD & SI stats. Even and 80:20 week isn't going to cause a major jump.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by aaronwt

The point is most people couldn't care less about HD, let alone BD/HD DVD. Your average person is fine with DVD resolution which would include On demand and Video downloads in SD. Most people who have an HD set don't even watch any HD content. If they cared about HD content that wouldn't be the case.

You are trying to oversimplify things and make a call well before the end of the game. People are buying HDTVs and not hooking them up to HD content because they are confused, illinformed and poorly educated on the subject. It is NOT because they don't want HD. Many people think they are getting HD content when they are not.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

You are trying to oversimplify things and make a call well before the end of the game. People are buying HDTVs and not hooking them up to HD content because they are confused, illinformed and poorly educated on the subject. It is NOT because they don't want HD. Many people think they are getting HD content when they are not.

Exactly. People buy an HDTV, watch regular cable and DVD, and say DVD looks real good, don't need to pay $10/month to get tha cableco's HD option. (They are probably further confused by all the "Digital Cable" stuff they already have, which makes it sound like it's the next generation thing = HDTV.)

For me, it wasn't until I actually picked up the HD tuner that my jaw dropped and I realized how much I was missing. DVD's (especially the anamorphic ones) already look much better than regular cable a lot of people think that's the best their TV can do.

I think Sony's strategy to give away 5 free BD's with PS3's is an excellent idea, to get people's jaws drop. Once you realize how much better it can get, there's no going back.

enjoy
gandalf

[aaronwt]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

DVD is certainly not growing much as a format, and both HD formats are.

So, rather than saying DVD is winning, it would be more accurate to say that DVD isn't losing its king of the mountain status as fast as people had hoped.

And it is the war that is to blame. I'm convinced a lot of people are simply waiting for a resolution.

Gary

I thought I read where DVD sales are still growing. Just not as fast as in the past.

[Blu-dock Saint]

Originally Posted by aaronwt

I thought I read where DVD sales are still growing. Just not as fast as in the past.

With deals like what Best Buy is giving I can see why. 7.50 for dvd's, select ones that is, its on their website.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by aaronwt

I thought I read where DVD sales are still growing. Just not as fast as in the past.

Wouldn't that be "not growing much"?

I think at best it is a few percent per year the last few years. And let's take Q3 (right now). What will be the YOY increases for HD discs Q3-2006 v. Q3-2007?

Gary

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Wouldn't that be "not growing much"?

I think at best it is a few percent per year the last few years. And let's take Q3 (right now). What will be the YOY increases for HD discs Q3-2006 v. Q3-2007?

Gary

Well, make sure for a mature product like that to use revenues or profits instead of just units. When you are giving something away for $7.50 at Walmart, the unit sales don't really impress me anymore.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

Well, make sure for a mature product like that to use revenues or profits instead of just units. When you are giving something away for $7.50 at Walmart, the unit sales don't really impress me anymore.

Since HD discs have to overcome that pricing level, you can't really ignore it overall.

But, these formats have been out only 12-15 months.

DVD hit 1 million players at the 14 month point. But, it was still inconsequential to VHS sales at that point. It's hard to properly measure it this time (because of add-ons, and the PS/3) but, you could argue that right now there are about 800-900K equivalent next-gen players. That's pretty darn close. Both had a format war, but DIVX wasn't nearly as serious.

History compresses for people, and DVD is now seen as having destroyed VHS overnight. So, why hasn't it happened yet for HD over DVD?

Things could be better. But, they actually aren't too bad at this point.

Gary

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

History compresses for people, and DVD is now seen as having destroyed VHS overnight. So, why hasn't it happened yet for HD over DVD?Gary

This is true in just about everything. People have very little perspective in regards to facts and time. It skews how they view everything.