81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Since HD discs have to overcome that pricing level, you can't really ignore it overall.

But, these formats have been out only 12-15 months.

DVD hit 1 million players at the 14 month point. But, it was still inconsequential to VHS sales at that point. It's hard to properly measure it this time (because of add-ons, and the PS/3) but, you could argue that right now there are about 800-900K equivalent next-gen players. That's pretty darn close. Both had a format war, but DIVX wasn't nearly as serious.

History compresses for people, and DVD is now seen as having destroyed VHS overnight. So, why hasn't it happened yet for HD over DVD?

Things could be better. But, they actually aren't too bad at this point.

Gary

And they didn't have someone trying to derail DVD. Everyone was on board - so not too bad at all indeed.

[iceman]

Originally Posted by goodstuff

Final DVDEmpire 7/10 week numbers:



http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365841484489

70-30 and then 78-22, now we are talking. Guess some people saw the Blockbuster news

[Aaron]

Originally Posted by Iceman

70-30 and then 78-22, now we are talking. Guess some people saw the Blockbuster news

I guess a lot of people saw the Blockbuster news! We're blowing HD DVD away.

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by Iceman

70-30 and then 78-22, now we are talking. Guess some people saw the Blockbuster news

78-22. Now thats what I am talking about


Fellow BD-lovers, here's our mission, should we choose to accept it:

Lets get hd-dvd to a position where it is a rounding error in overall HDM sales.

--

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

Fellow BD-lovers, here's our mission, should we choose to accept it:

Lets get hd-dvd to a position where it is a rounding error in overall HDM sales.

Now that would just be mean.

BD 95% HD-DVD 5% ±5% margin of error


fuad

[Anthony P]

You are still comparing to 50/50 rather than the metric in question.

Blu-Ray Buckeye: not at all, why do you think I added how SI and YTD have not changed

A 51:49 week would slightly lower the YTD and SI figures since both are higher than 51:49. However you probably wouldn't see it because there are far greater total numbers in the YTD & SI stats.

exactly what I said. a 51:49 week (not that it will happen) won't change the number we see for 3 reasons

1) the SI/YTD total of the previous week in actual numbers will be very big (you are comparing one week to 6 months

2) we have numbers that are rounded and any difference will not make it change by more then .1

3) chances are that such a week won't be determined by an extremely strong HD DVD week but most likely a bad week by HD DVD

if each week roughly the same number of disks sell (let's say 100k) the average after 30 weeks is 70-30 that would mean it is 2100k for one side and 900k for the other. Now the 31st week it is 51k and 49k that will give new totals of 2151k and 949k and the ratio becomes 69.4 and the other becomes 30.6


obviously not all weeks are equal and weeks where HD DVD is closer to BD tend to be weeks that BD has sold less

so that if we assume that the average is 100k and the 70-30 but we also assume that this week it is 51:49 but only 50k disks sold in total then it becomes 2125.5 andso the ratio is 69.7 that will be in the magazine as 70 (no change)

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by Iceman

70-30 and then 78-22, now we are talking. Guess some people saw the Blockbuster news

Just FYI, the 78-22 for "Week of July 17th" is the week starting on that day, and that number will be updated several times during the week. It won't be final until the next number is posted on July 24th.

The previous 70-30 number is final, though.

yeah, i know it's confusing
gandalf

[Croweyes1121]

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/hd-dvd-g...n-decline/4600

Why is this in such contrast to all the stats pointed out on this forum? I don't get it. I hate seeing stories like this run if they're not true. Can someone explain this to me? Granted, this is coming from HD DVD's promotion campaign, so I know you have to consider the source, plus...

1. I'm sure they're STILL not counting the PS3 (or the reported surge in ITS sales since the recent price drop).

2. I'm sure part of their increase in software sales has to do with their ever-increasing freebies packaged with their now dirt-cheap players.

But those stats are still daunting when you read them. I need a pep talk, guys.

[Blu Titan]

Statistics can be manipulated in many ways. However, it is unethical (not illegal in most cases)to do so when they intention is to deceive. When you look at the software sales numbers, it is apparent that blu-ray's has sold approximately 66% of all HD movies. The advantage for blu-ray will continue to increase in Q3 and Q4. The end of years number should have blu-ray in the lead of 75-80%.

[BlurRay]

Blu had a great 1Q and the second wasn't as good so it dropped 5%. No biggie

[nhaase]

Let's all remember that the Q1 includes March, a month in which HD DVD only released movies on week. It's pretty easy to have a better Q2 when your Q2 only includes two months of releases. HD DVD promo group seems to have forgotten that little tidbit.

[BlurRay]

I'm sure they didn't forget, but that is the reason there was a big increase becasue of such a bad 1Q. ANd BD drop becasue their 1Q was very good. It would have been hard to top it in 2Q since not many PS3s were sold in 2Q.And there were all the Blu disc sales in 1Q which helped the sell so many titles in 1Q.

[jdsanko]

HD-DVD folks want to talk about "stand alone" hardware sales. THis is clearly specified in the 7-16 article on the same site about HD-DVD's lead in Europe. Both articles state that more than 180,000 HD-DVD stand alone players have been sold. Prior to the price cut, Sony sold 1.5 million PS3's. I saw a survey that said "only" 14% of these owners play BD's. If so, that is still 210,000 users, not counting stand alone BD player sales. And remember, most of these stats predate the PS3 price cut, and the 2nd generation lower priced BD players. It does cover Toshiba's fire sale.

If MS had put a HD-DVD in the original XBox 360, HD-DVD may have had a chance. The key is software sales and the HD-DVD folks are careful to dance around these numbers. The software comes from the studios and they could care less what you buy, just so it is something. Their releases will ultimate focus on where they can get the most sales.

[BlurRay]

What about the numbers that really matter? The NPD numbers.

[WickyWoo]

If MS had put a HD-DVD in the original XBox 360, HD-DVD may have had a chance

They'd be in the same pickle Sony was. Having to launch a $500+ console.

That's why they didn't do it, especially since they had so little invested in the success/failure of the format (on the grand scale), compared to what they stood to lose launching at that high price

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Croweyes1121

1. I'm sure they're STILL not counting the PS3 (or the reported surge in ITS sales since the recent price drop).

They're careful to partition the hardware into "overall" (all hardware) and "CE player" (stand-alones). So, they are including the PS/3 in the BD hardware. That's the only way a drop could have occured (PS/3 was down about 50% Q2 over Q1).

The sales of Dell PCs with BD drives, cheaper BD burners, and of course cheaper BD CE players were notable for Q2.

Gary

[WriteSimply]

This thread is in the wrong forum. BD software means PC/MAC/Linux BD playback software or encoding software.

And we already have the mega Nielsen thread.


fuad

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by BlurRay

What about the numbers that really matter? The NPD numbers.

NPD track hardware sales.

Nielsen VideoScan track movie sales.

It's not that one 'really matters' and the other doesn't. They record different things.

On the hardware side (NPD) we have to consider all devices capable of playing HD discs. These include PS3, Blu-ray standalones, Xbox 360 add-on, HD DVD standalones, PC & laptop optical drives.

But, as with DVD, the studios are not especially interested in what sort of device the customer uses to play the discs. What is interesting (and what REALLY matters) is how many discs they sell.

[iceman]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Just FYI, the 78-22 for "Week of July 17th" is the week starting on that day, and that number will be updated several times during the week. It won't be final until the next number is posted on July 24th.

The previous 70-30 number is final, though.

yeah, i know it's confusing
gandalf

Yeah I know... it used to be that way, but nowadays I think they might be final... not sure though... we'll see next week

[Anthony P]

It's not that one 'really matters' and the other doesn't. They record different things.

Fozziwig: there is one other difference, NPD gives augmented numbers, VS are straight numbers.


i.e. if NPD says 92k 360 add ons sold last year, it could be more but could be less, it is their assumption based on them thinking they get info for X% and that for the whole it should be Y% more

If VS says BD sold 1M disks then BD sold >1M because VS does not have all the disks and obviously some other stores (like Wal Mart) have sold some disks as well.