81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[docjan_uk]

I spent a good portion of yesterday wandering around central london and getting tempted by a few BD's. Unfortunately there was no way in hell I was gonna spend £25 on a movie. Infact it shocks me that anyone would spend that much rather than just go to Amazon and it 25-30% cheaper.

Heh, the ONE movie I've been waiting for (Sunshine) cost £28 in all the big stores.
Whatever.

[thebluemax]

Originally Posted by Vonscoot

Rat on DVD did so bad that WM was allowed to return all overstock discs 3 days after the movie came out... normally we have to wait 2 weeks to send back overstock new releases.

So

[darinp2]

Sorry if you guys have already covered this, but as I posted elsewhere, it looks like the things about Ratatouille selling 40% more than SM:3 on DVD was for their first weeks, since HMM has the ratio at over 5x for Ratatouille's first week vs SM:3's 2nd week. But it looks like Ratatouille didn't do as well in comparison to SM:3 on Blu-ray.

Here is part of what I posted elsewhere on this (with some clarification added):

Originally Posted by darinp2

Ratatouille sold almost 4x what I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry did on DVD (100% to 26.19%).

I am disappointed about how the Pixar stuff did on Blu-ray, but at least the percentage with Chuck and Larry is better (100% to 19.52% for Ratatouille to that one on Blu-ray).

Compared to the 2nd week of SM:3, Ratatouille didn't do as well on Blu-ray as DVD (100% to 34.98% for Blu-ray), and that was even including that the box set added another 15.38% for SM:3 for Blu-ray, but less than 2% for DVD. Counting the box sets as one SM:3, the ratios would be 100% to 20.6% for DVD and 100% to 50.36% for Blu-ray. Or in other words, Ratatouille sold 5x as many DVDs as SM:3 did this week, but only twice as many BDs (when the box sets are included). Of course, we don't know how much drop-off there was for SM:3 on DVD or Blu-ray from week 1 to week 2, but still interesting.

--Darin

[toocheezy]

Originally Posted by TheSentinel

Hey, after about 3 months of owning a PS3 and much wallet emptyness I'd say i'm not doing too bad, 26 titles in my library with 5 more on the way. 2 of which are box sets of movies and 1 season. Just a bit late to the party is all .

I would have to agree. I have had my PS3 since April, and the Blu-ray player was one of the main reasons why I bought one. I used to have a 360 until I got the red rings of death. I truly love my PS3. But I used to rent my BR's from netflix, and I just recently started purchasing. I figured that whatever I could do to help. But I just hate it when people say that PS3 owners are using their players for gaming only. All my friends that have PS3 use their BR players. But I am buying movies and I will continue to buy BR movies, and I know that millions of people across the world are doing the same. I just wish that the Neilsen numbers reflected the total sales around the World instead of the U.S. because I know the numbers would be alot different, and people wouldnt be saying that PS3 owners arent doing there part.

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

I spent a good portion of yesterday wandering around central london and getting tempted by a few BD's. Unfortunately there was no way in hell I was gonna spend £25 on a movie. Infact it shocks me that anyone would spend that much rather than just go to Amazon and it 25-30% cheaper.

Heh, the ONE movie I've been waiting for (Sunshine) cost £28 in all the big stores.
Whatever.

It's the same over here most of the time. I shop Super Target, and most of the time I visit the disk section to admire the fact that Blu-ray has twice the shelf space as the other brand. However, the prices are at the maximum for every disk. They don't have a weekly sale as they do for SDs that have just been released. Online is the only place I ever order any Blu's.

Until they do begin to lower the prices at the retail outlets like Target where many shop on a daily or weekly basis, Blu-ray is going to seem too expensive when you're required to pay $29.99 for a disk that is available in SD for $15.99 or so.

-Greg

P.S. Of course, HD is equally expensive.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

I just don't see them cutting prices much below the PS3. Sony just won't have that. It would kill PS3 sales, which aren't where they would like to see them anyway.

I still think a rebate situation is the way to boost standalone sales without dropping the actual price, and becoming locked-in on a pricepoint like HD-DUD has.

They'll have to, the PS3 is $399 and 1.1 capable, the Panssonic $499 and 1.1 capable, who's going to pay more than $299 for a 1.0 first gen player?

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

Yeah, I will probably go neutral by next year if nothing changes, BUT, and this is a very big BUT for all to know.... I don't see myself purchasing more than a few HD-DUD discs.

Therein lies the difference between BR and HD-DUD -- there's a lot more to buy that's worthwhile on BR.

Me too, but I'd wait for a $99 1080p HD-DVD player, and only buy major HD-DVD exclusives.

I'd still buy 5-1+ movies in favour of Blu-ray.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by richteer

Without Warner being exclusive, I can't see us ever getting to 80:20 consistently. What I find ironic is that in almost every other industry, a 2:1 ratio that has held up for a year would be the mark of a true winner, and the debate would be over.

Warner going Blu-exclusive would be fantasic for two reasons: 1) the war would be that much closer to being over, and 2) we wouldn't have to put up with bit-rate starved HD DVD ports.

If Warner are looking at this from a worldwide perspective, 12 months on Blu-ray will have an 80-20 advantage when you take into account the increasing European/Japanease markets.

They don't amount to much right now, but 2008 will be the breakthrough year for hi def.

[Justbrowsing]

Originally Posted by thebluemax

I see a lot of big talk on here, but not enough BD owners are buying Blu-Ray movies, especially PS3 owners. It appears to me that Standalone owners buy more BD's ...

Friends. This is exactly the problem. Not including the people on this forum, PS3 owners are not reliable Blu-Ray customers. All of the statistics show this to be true. This week's numbers in light of all the PS3s that were sold should make it as clear as day to even us mere mortals.

PS3 sales will not win this war. They definitely help us in the short term when the overall HD market is small. But as more regular people buy HD/Blu-Ray stand alones, their attach rates will dwarf the sales of Blu-rays to PS3 owners.

Think about it this way... How many DVD players are there in peoples homes? How many gaming consoles? If the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD standalones approach anywhere near the number of DVD owners... then disc sales will skyrocket well beyond the little bitty numbers we have been arguing about for the last two years.

That is why there are TWO facts that should not be ignored:

1- Sales ratios to date mean absolutely nothing. The entire market could double, then triple in the next year. While numbers like 45-weeks to zero sound impressive in this room, it means nothing to studios and industry decision makers. They need this market to be much much much bigger and will get behind whatever it takes to get the market there. Please understand this.

2-Its the price of stand alone players that is going to drive mass-adoption of the format. Even if every PS3 owner bought X blu-rays, it would not come remotely close to how many blu-rays/hd-dvd's will be sold if HD/Blu-ray stand alone players are adopted by the masses.

BOTTOM LINE: BLU-RAY PLAYER PRICES MUST COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IF WE ARE TO WIN THIS WAR. PERIOD. END OF STORY.

[yakman]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

i can't imagine spiderman 3 selling 100% more copies than ratatouille, ratatouille was a much better movie.

PS3/gamer effect? The top selling HDM are SM3, 300, and Transformers.

[yakman]

Originally Posted by lztp6k

Still a good week for Blu. I'm not surprised the pixar titles didn't move as much as most everyone thought. Shrek won't move for them either.

I think Shrek will do fairly well for them as it is the only decent family title they have as of yet. I think a lot of guys will pick it up to justify having bought a DUD to the wife and kids. I'd bet it will be their 3rd best title sales to date.

[jsb_hburg]

Originally Posted by Justbrowsing

(snip)

BOTTOM LINE: BLU-RAY PLAYER PRICES MUST COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IF WE ARE TO WIN THIS WAR. PERIOD. END OF STORY.

Lexicon or CRA need not be retained to understand that the market for Blu-ray players exhibit elastic demand. Certainly, BDA manufacturers must be working towards driving the player cost structure downwards without having to resort to subsidization to lower retail price.

The HD DVD share for this past week should not have exceeded 30% but for Toshiba's subsidization of free movies scanned at the point of sale with firesale A2 units.

Over the last approximately 15 months, the price of a Samsung player, for example, has declined from $999 to $299. Prices will likely continue to decrease incrementally with each passing month until such time a significant consumer adoption equilibrium has been achieved.

Considering studio affiliations, there is no hope for Toshiba. The best solution for Toshiba is to announce a dual format player at CES '08 or soon thereafter. When and if such event occurs, the best outcome for consumers is the exclusive use of the better Blu-ray technology by all studios.

The price differential story has been at play since the Blu-ray format launched almost 15 months ago. As for standalones, BDA manufacturers have sold players at or above cost while Toshiba has sold its players for well below cost. Despite the subsidization effect, Blu-ray has consistently outsold HD DVD by 2 to 1 for movies.

There is no cause for concern. Continue buying your BDs, even WB BDs even though WB does not optimize for BD for video.

[FFObsessed]

65:35 is pretty good but I hoped for more.

What release list corresponds with next Friday's numbers?

[WickyWoo]

Considering studio affiliations, there is no hope for Toshiba. The best solution for Toshiba is to announce a dual format player at CES '08 or soon thereafter. When and if such event occurs, the best outcome for consumers is the exclusive use of the better Blu-ray technology by all studios.

That definately won't happen

They won't throw in the towel, until after Christmas 08

The price differential story has been at play since the Blu-ray format launched almost 15 months ago. As for standalones, BDA manufacturers have sold players at or above cost while Toshiba has sold its players for well below cost. Despite the subsidization effect, Blu-ray has consistently outsold HD DVD by 2 to 1 for movies.

There is no cause for concern. Continue buying your BDs, even WB BDs even though WB does not optimize for BD for video.

For the sake of accuracy, the bestselling Blu player out there, the PS3 IS subsidized, but unlike Toshiba with an actual expectation of ROI through game sales (current best estimates put the 80GB at breakeven or close, while the 40GB is probably losing about $50, or 5 game sale royalties per unit)

[Esox50]

For those discussing BD standalone player prices, go and search post history from paidgeek and kjack. Based on what they've posted, it seems the major BD Ce's have little interest in driving player prices down or subsidizing players. kjack has also said that he is doing work with China. Since we are past the Profile 1.1 10/31/07 deadline, here's what I see for 2008 (lots of which will be discussed/shown at CES08):
The major BD CEs (Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, etc) are going to allow China to do the <$299 1.1 players.

The brand name CEs will release Profile 1.1 players at $349 - $499. Most of them will also show BD LIVE (AKA Profile 2.0) players, probably will full DTS MA decoding for $499-$699. Of course, you'll also have players from companies like Denon etc for > $1,000.

Summary:
* Profile 1.1 <$299 = Chinese players
* Profile 1.1 $349 - $499 = major BD CEs such as Sony, Panny, Pio, etc
* BD Live $499 - $699 = major BD CEs such as Sony, Panny, Pio, etc
* Specialty "High End" 1.1 and BD Live players > $999


Here's a sample:
https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...postcount=5168

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...postcount=4920

[Esox50]

I just wanted to add to my post above, since I see *some* people freaking out over the sales ratio "only" being 65/35. What are the two last talking point of HD DVDers? One, PiP. Two, player price.

Now let's take a look:
One, we have three (or is it four) PiP titles already announced for early January 08. I think it's one from Sony, one from Fox, and two from Lion's Gate. The PS3 will get a firmware update in late December to be Profile 1.1 compliant, so instantly 90% of BD folks have final profile players. This talking point of HD DVDers is over in 6 weeks.

Two, based on what I posted regarding player prices with a quote from kjack, does anyone think that the price gap between HD DVD and BD 1.1 players is not going to be significantly closed in 2008? By the middle/end of 2008, this gap will be negligible IMHO. Talking point of HD DVD = gone.

I'm sorry, but I see a few people sounding alarms because we didn't win by a 4:1 ratio. That's crazy. Only on the internet can people who are losing week after week (i.e. HD DVD fans) rejoice in the fact that they didnt lose "by that much", and at the same time have people on the leading side freaking out.

Read some of my previous posts with more quotes from Insiders. I have no doubt that next year is the year of "BD hardware", and that by mid year, this is all going to be clear whether HD DVD is still going to even be around. WB and to a lessor extent, Universal, will both be revisiting their current release arrangements; we know this based on some very subtle posts by some people here with an impeccable track record.

[WickyWoo]

I think people are ignoring the real reason why the pricing isn't as important

A store makes less than 10% on an HD DVD player

They make 30-35% on a BD player

So if BD players are moving the same as HD players, which one do you think the retailers would rather carry? Retailers in the end are the only people who really matter in the war, because what they don't carry, people can't buy

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

I think people are ignoring the real reason why the pricing isn't as important

A store makes less than 10% on an HD DVD player

They make 30-35% on a BD player

So if BD players are moving the same as HD players, which one do you think the retailers would rather carry? Retailers in the end are the only people who really matter in the war, because what they don't carry, people can't buy

Very good point...

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

I think people are ignoring the real reason why the pricing isn't as important

A store makes less than 10% on an HD DVD player

They make 30-35% on a BD player

So if BD players are moving the same as HD players, which one do you think the retailers would rather carry? Retailers in the end are the only people who really matter in the war, because what they don't carry, people can't buy

At the same time, most people don't care what a store makes on a player, and why should they? The bottom line is their own cash outflow, from their perspective.

But I also absolutely agree with you from the retailer perspective as well, and it's a huge part of the chain. They are a key stakeholder in this as well, along with the CEs, studios, and consumers. In some of my previous posts, I have noted that if some retailers flat out dropped HD DVD next year, that would go a long ways towards solving this fiasco. Now, are they going to drop BD, which is basically everyone except Toshiba, Universal, and Paramount? Or are they a going to drop HD DVD which has minimal support in the industry? Clearly it would be the latter, given the current state of things. Universal and Paramount would obviously just recover easily by starting to release on BD. Toshiba would just produce dual format players for a while.

[jsb_hburg]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

That definately won't happen

They won't throw in the towel, until after Christmas 08



For the sake of accuracy, the bestselling Blu player out there, the PS3 IS subsidized, but unlike Toshiba with an actual expectation of ROI through game sales (current best estimates put the 80GB at breakeven or close, while the 40GB is probably losing about $50, or 5 game sale royalties per unit)

Yes, sadly, I know it's all pie in the sky at this point in time.