81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[PrinceLH]

If CE companies can't turn a profit, they won't make a player... this is straight out of Econ-101. And without CE support, the BDA would be just like Toshiba, which is like a man with both impotence and "performance issues"... no matter how much viagra ($) microsoft gives toshiba to prop them up, they still climaxed too soon, and are already rolling over to go to sleep, while blu ray is building a base for better long term performance and market penitration without being artificially propped up.


That last paragraph is nothing short of brilliant. Well done!

While I like to agree with most of this post, I also think that it would be a good time to start moving out the profile 1.0 players for under $300.00. I would love to buy a new 1.1 or 2.0 player and either sell or give my profile 1.0 to a relative and keep the Blu momentum going forward.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Iceman_II

If CE companies can't turn a profit, they won't make a player... this is straight out of Econ-101. And without CE support, the BDA would be just like Toshiba, which is like a man with both impotence and "performance issues"... no matter how much viagra ($) microsoft gives toshiba to prop them up, they still climaxed too soon, and are already rolling over to go to sleep, while blu ray is building a base for better long term performance and market penitration without being artificially propped up.

Obviously we have two very different market penetration strategies at work here. Toshiba's desperate strategy is intended to prime their market for "razor blades" (e.g. their future royaltees) and not "razors". They have no real interest in other CE vendors - it's their baby.

Blu Ray vendors, since many of them gain nothing from royalties, want to make a healthy profit on the hardware side.

It doesn't matter how desperate the HD DVD strategy is however, or whether Sony or some other Blu Ray vendor adopting a similar strategy would screw the other Blu Ray CE vendors. The question is whether Toshiba will successfully flood the market with cheap players and shift media sales.

Honestly we all hope Toshiba's strategy will be impotent, but really it is hard to know what is going to happen over the next six weeks.

There's nothing any of us can do at this point but keep supporting the format and have confidence that the BDA companies will take steps to maintain or grow market share.

If BDA succeeds and ultimately shift the scales definitively that's great.

Worst case, we can probably expect reasonably priced dual format players in a year or so.

[T-Wrecks]

The real question is: "What sales percentage will it take and how long must it be sustained before a neutral studio decides its time to go all in for Blu-ray and cause a siesmic shift that is needed to hasten an end to this war?"

Is it 70/30 for 3 solid months? Is it total sales volume large enough to provide a sample that validates/is convincing statistical information? If so, then what volume must be hit?

We are definitely being blu-wooed as if we are "so very close" to victory by the neutral parties, but I believe this is just another tactic to garner sales until I see the proof.

Thoughts?

[Joe Cain]

Originally Posted by T-Wrecks

The real question is: "What sales percentage will it take and how long must it be sustained before a neutral studio decides its time to go all in for Blu-ray and cause a siesmic shift that is needed to hasten an end to this war?"

Is it 70/30 for 3 solid months? Is it total sales volume large enough to provide a sample that validates/is convincing statistical information? If so, then what volume must be hit?

We are definitely being blu-wooed as if we are "so very close" to victory by the neutral parties, but I believe this is just another tactic to garner sales until I see the proof.

Thoughts?

No idea what the actual numbers are, but that sounds right. There have been some posts on the Insiders thread which suggest many parties are waiting for certain milestones to be hit---total units sold, a certain sales ratio advantage over time, and so on. What those targets are and what the hard numbers are is impossible to say, but if the industry wants HDM to succeed I think everyone involved is aware a dual format market won't play in prime time. BD is much closer to hitting any of those targets by virtue of its success to date: if this were the Tour de France, BD has yet to surrender the yellow jersey.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by T-Wrecks

The real question is: "What sales percentage will it take and how long must it be sustained before a neutral studio decides its time to go all in for Blu-ray and cause a siesmic shift that is needed to hasten an end to this war?"

Is it 70/30 for 3 solid months? Is it total sales volume large enough to provide a sample that validates/is convincing statistical information? If so, then what volume must be hit?

We are definitely being blu-wooed as if we are "so very close" to victory by the neutral parties, but I believe this is just another tactic to garner sales until I see the proof.

Thoughts?

I don't think it is a matter of being steady.
I would think that they want to see a steady increase.
If you are selling somewhere between 100k-200k possible players a month plus stand alones it is only natural for them to expect numbers grow week to week and month to month.
Winning week after week is nice and is part of the equation but only part.

[Iceman_II]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

I don't think it is a matter of being steady.
I would think that they want to see a steady increase.
If you are selling somewhere between 100k-200k possible players a month plus stand alones it is only natural for them to expect numbers grow week to week and month to month.
Winning week after week is nice and is part of the equation but only part.

I disagree a bit... you know what they say, figures lie, and liars figure... You can spin the numbers into anything you want, but if you look at them in a vacuum, as total numbers sold increase, the rate of growth in multiples may only need to be constant, but it MUST be higher, much higher in raw numbers to sustain the 2:1 margin, and trust me, the numbers guys in Hollywood know this. The studios are looking for a consistant, year over year steadily increasing income stream. I believe consistancy shows them that, not spikes in sales due to weekly aperitions due to what ever flavor of the month is released. The fact that more people would rather buy blu catalog titles than would rather purchase red catalog titles AND their biggest blockbuster of the year makes the HD-DVD format almost laughable.

(yes, BOTH blu and red had BOGOs that week, so any redbois that are reading this, don't even try to whine about it)

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

I don't think it is a matter of being steady.
I would think that they want to see a steady increase.
If you are selling somewhere between 100k-200k possible players a month plus stand alones it is only natural for them to expect numbers grow week to week and month to month.
Winning week after week is nice and is part of the equation but only part.

There is a steady increase. As the market grows it takes a bigger increase to maintain the same ratio.

This is why the claim that Blu-Ray is "only" keeping a 2:1 ratio is fairly laughable.

[UTVOL06]

Mendelssohn: A Midsummer Night's Dream (Opus Arte)
Star Trek: The Original Series -- The Complete First Season (Paramount)
Tremors (Universal)

Those are the HD-DVD Releases for the 20th...I think Blu-ray is gonna kill HD with its Die Hard series release.

[DealsR4theDevil]

Originally Posted by UTVOL06

Those are the HD-DVD Releases for the 20th...I think Blu-ray is gonna kill HD with its Die Hard series release.

Trek fans, and we all know they are crazy about Star Trek, will be getting the season 1 HD DVD because it is a combo DVD/HD DVD and there is no DVD version coming out. Fortunately for us, there are not enough of these people to change the numbers drastically.

What Toshiba should do is not release any Universal or Paramount movies on DVD only on HD DVD/DVD combo discs. That way people would be buying HD DVDs all the time and it would be more about getting an HD DVD player for $99 after their collection built up enough. Honestly I do not know why they would not do this.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by DealsR4theDevil

What Toshiba should do is not release any Universal or Paramount movies on DVD only on HD DVD/DVD combo discs. That way people would be buying HD DVDs all the time and it would be more about getting an HD DVD player for $99 after their collection built up enough. Honestly I do not know why they would not do this.

lol, ok Paramount might be a ***** but they are not a stupid *****. That would be financial suicide for a stuido to do that specially when their intrest in this war stop and ends with that $150 million check. There is no way they would kill their DVD sales (and yes, this would cost them millions upon millions) to boost a format that essentially small potatoes right now. They don't get the royalties so there is no reason to do this.

[CptGreedle]

Paramount only got $50 million, Dreamworks got $100 million.
If Dreamworks changes to a new studio, who knows what will happen.
But right now we should not worry about it.

Paramount made a financially secure decision, at least for instant gratification. I am sure sometime next year they will see how staying neutral would have benefitted them more. But the CEOs are weak greedy people, and obviously have made bad choices before.

We will just have to wait and see what happens.

[ryoohki]

Prepared for screwed up numbers in 2 weeks, there's no version of the Remastered Star Trek TOS on DVD, just the HD DVD Combo, and knowing Star Trek Fan, it will indeed do influence this.

remember there's like MILLIONS of DVD Player owner in NA...

[user friendly]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

Paramount made a financially secure decision, at least for instant gratification. I am sure sometime next year they will see how staying neutral would have benefitted them more. But the CEOs are weak greedy people, and obviously have made bad choices before.

There's no way that staying neutral would have benefited them more, it's the main reason they didn't stay neutral. Do you realize how many movies they would have to make in the time frame of 18 months, to make $150m?

This was an amazing deal for Dreamworks/Paramount and it was only for 18 months. They shafted the BD fans but it's not that important too them at this point. Basically, they're waiting for the contract to end so they can get back in the HDM race. First movie to come, I can almost see it now, Transformers on BD.

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by ryoohki

Prepared for screwed up numbers in 2 weeks, there's no version of the Remastered Star Trek TOS on DVD, just the HD DVD Combo, and knowing Star Trek Fan, it will indeed do influence this.

remember there's like MILLIONS of DVD Player owner in NA...

I highly doubt that. It isn't even selling well on Amazon where people tend to buy box sets and double disc sets over the standard issue dvds. All the Trek fans already have their original UNTOUCHED sets. They don't want something that has been messed around with. It ain't gonna happen.

[gear]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

I highly doubt that. It isn't even selling well on Amazon where people tend to buy box sets and double disc sets over the standard issue dvds. All the Trek fans already have their original UNTOUCHED sets. They don't want something that has been messed around with. It ain't gonna happen.

I agree this set was already been introduced back at the end of 2004. Sure they cleaned it up, but how many people will pay $125 for something they already own and see on TV every week in reruns.

[sj001]

Speaking of Neilsen numbers... does anyone know if they will be released this Friday due to Thanksgiving and all?

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by gear

I agree this set was already been introduced back at the end of 2004. Sure they cleaned it up, but how many people will pay $125 for something they already own and see on TV every week in reruns.

You do realize that this is the remastered versions where they fixed and added effects and all of that right?
As far as I am aware they have never been released yet other than showing once a week at like 11pm on some back woods tv stations.

[UltimateFighter]

Is anybody else worried about this?

We've got:

I Know Who Killed Me
Jin-Roh: The Wolf Brigade
The Omega Man
Paprika

VS. the following from HD-DVD

Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Hot Rod
Mr. Bean's Holiday
Old School
The Omega Man

I'm actually worried about this I hope we have some more BOGO's to dish out or a ton of residual sales.

[dakota81]

No one can buy any other movie than that list next week? And are you suggesting the BDA actually needs to give away free movies just for the satisfaction? Why are you worried?

[UltimateFighter]

Originally Posted by dakota81

No one can buy any other movie than that list next week?

Of course they can. That's why I was hoping for a large amount of residual sales!

Originally Posted by dakota81

Why are you worried?

Because new releases tend to be the main driver of sales for their respective week. Our new release lineup sucks for that week and it worries me that our sales leverage over HD-DVD for that week may slip. Nothing that would affect the SI or YTD#'s but a weekly win for HD-DVD in the holiday season is not something I want them to be able to claim.