81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[nhaase]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

Can't see how you believe that. Retailers will make that decision for them very quickly if these trends keep up. They will tire of the battle and once they have enough data, let's say a full year's worth, they will grant real estate in their stores, and inventory for e-tailers, to the clear winner. 2:1 is not a healthy ratio for a format war... that is 1 side getting their nutbag crushed in.

Good GOD man! Very true, though.

[Blue]

There is something mathamatically wrong with the figures being posted, the graphs indicate weekly (for about the last 6 weeks) Y2D (has been swinging slowly BD's way until the new graphs were implemented) and total (Since inception). The Y2D should be still slowly swinging Blu-ray's way, seeing that Blu-ray has beaten HD-DVD every week for months and normally by a massive margin. It's impossible for the Y2D percentage to swing away.

Assuming total constant sales from week to week (an increase every week makes it even more favourable for Blu-ray) you would expect the Y2D to be increasing by at least 1% per month (will get slower later in the year) but in April BD was 69% now back to 68% (even with a rounding error it should have made it back to 69% even 70% or higher). One of those two graphs is wrong.

[phloyd]

Actually both YTD and SI should slowly swing towards the weekly ratio.

If the YTD ratio is higher than the weekly, it can be deduced, converging towards the weekly ratio.

Currently this is the case.

EG, if BD has sold 7000 and HD DVD 3000 for the year, YTD is 70:30.

If this week is BD 600 and HD 400 (60:40), we get a total YTD of 7600 vs 3400, which is roughly 69:31.

So the YTD will change to be closer to the weekly ratio even though BD still outsold HD DVD.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

I will point out one negative:

Fox was predicting a 3.5:1 advantage for BD by the end of March. Of course, Fox themselves is quite significantly to blame for this not occuring since they postponed a whole mess of decent titles.

Gary

Commando (Fox)*
Dances with Wolves (MGM)*
Dodgeball (Fox)*
Dude, Where's My Car? (MGM)*
The Fly (1986) (Fox)
From Hell (Fox)
Hannibal (MGM)
Ice Age (Fox)*
Me, Myself & Irene (Fox)*
Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Fox)*
The Princess Bride (MGM)*
RoboCop (MGM)*
The Silence of the Lambs (MGM)
The Thomas Crown Affair (1999) (MGM)
Tristan & Isolde (Fox)
Turistas (Fox)


The list above represents titles by FOX/MGM that Were/Are delayed.
Of that list I put an * next to titles I planned/plan to buy. Quite a few.

[cdblu]

imo shelf space should reflect sales. for example ytd for bd is 68 to 32 hd-ded right? so shelf space should be 68:32 in favor of bd. i also agree about making this a sticky.

[Deciazulado]

The pie chart for the 5-13 week "Year-to-Date" graphic is wrong, being the same one as the "Week Ended 5/13 pie" chart so instead of having a 68%/32% pie it has a 62%/38% pie


5-6


5-13
'


The central Year-to-Date 5-6 pie chart should have been the one used for the central Year-to-Date 5-13 graphic.

[Helicon]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

having a 68%/32% pie it has a 62%/38% pie

Good detective work

Here is the real pie (5-13):




While I'm at it, here is the pie for 12-16

[bykes]

Originally Posted by Helicon

Good detective work

Here is the real pie (5-13):




While I'm at it, here is the pie for 12-16

I think something is wrong with that first pie.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by Shin-Ra

It would be SO sweet to see a "longitudinal" version of the year-to-date and since-inception pie charts. Initially they would show almost an entire disc of RED with only a sliver of blue. Two single moving pie charts would show the history of the Blu-ray HD-DVD formats. Once Blu-ray made its move the blue slivers would progressively grow and grow while there was a corresponding and ominous (for HD-DVD fanboys) steady shrinkage of the red portions of the two pie charts. Definitely would be sweet. And demoralizing for the HD-DVD folks.

[Blue]

That is another issue and not what I was refering too, about 4 weeks ago the ratio was 69% Blu-ray 31% HD-DVD (ignore the pictures, just read the article - for those not over 18 ignore this comment). Blu-ray has outsold HD-DVD EVERY week for quite some time, so the ratio should be moving to 70 /30 or even 71 /29 not heading the other way (or is that the figure that is wrong).

Week End Week Year To Date Inception
08-Apr-07 62% 69% 56%
15-Apr-07 61% 69% 57%
22-Apr-07 52% 68% 57%
29-Apr-07 71% 68% 58%
06-May-07 60% 68% 57%
13-May-07 62% 68% 57%

Although Blu-ray is winning every week it's stagnant or going backwards in the total sold for the year or since inception. The Average is 61% for the weekly totals, if this is correct the Year to date should look more like
69%
69%
69%
70%
70%
71%
A similar but slower pattern for the Since Inception.

[Deciazulado]

Well, if they are using the wrong pie chart, there could also be something wrong with the numbers.

[Musashi]

I can't wait till the charts reflecting the sales of Pirates come out. That'll net us a few points.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

Well, if they are using the wrong pie chart, there could also be something wrong with the numbers.

The numbers by definition have a few issues in them but are probably at least directionally correct. Look at the following stats from Blue's post:

Week End Week Year To Date Inception
08-Apr-07 62% 69% 56%
15-Apr-07 61% 69% 57%
22-Apr-07 52% 68% 57%
29-Apr-07 71% 68% 58%
06-May-07 60% 68% 57%
13-May-07 62% 68% 57%

Go from week ended 4/29 to week ended 5/6... the From Inception for Blu-ray dips from 58% to 57%. That simply isn't possible given the data. The Blu-ray share for the week was 60%. It was a dip from the prior week but there's no way that a 60% week can erode a 58% From Inception number; The week would have to be below 58% to erode the figure.

[RUR]

New figures now out:

For w/e 5/20 BR 58%, HD DVD 42%

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052707/

[bluflu]

Originally Posted by KenB

New figures now out:

For w/e 5/20 BR 58%, HD DVD 42%

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052707/

You know it's a slow week when Warner's at top.

[RUR]

Originally Posted by Blue

That is another issue and not what I was refering too, about 4 weeks ago the ratio was 69% Blu-ray 31% HD-DVD (ignore the pictures, just read the article - for those not over 18 ignore this comment). Blu-ray has outsold HD-DVD EVERY week for quite some time, so the ratio should be moving to 70 /30 or even 71 /29 not heading the other way (or is that the figure that is wrong).

Week End Week Year To Date Inception
08-Apr-07 62% 69% 56%
15-Apr-07 61% 69% 57%
22-Apr-07 52% 68% 57%
29-Apr-07 71% 68% 58%
06-May-07 60% 68% 57%
13-May-07 62% 68% 57%

Although Blu-ray is winning every week it's stagnant or going backwards in the total sold for the year or since inception. The Average is 61% for the weekly totals, if this is correct the Year to date should look more like
69%
69%
69%
70%
70%
71%
A similar but slower pattern for the Since Inception.

The math says that so long as the weekly figure is lower than the YTD or SI, YTD or SI will decrease. If the weekly figure is higher than the YTD or SI, those figures will increase. One problem we have is that Nielsen stopped giving us the decimal (e.g. 69.2% is now provided as 69%), causing the inevitable rounding errors and fogging the numbers. That's why it takes weeks of weekly figures below the YTD to cause a 1% reduction in YTD 68% to 67%.

[marzetta7]

Still looks like Blu-ray is maintaining its 60/40 split. I hope it jumps 70/30 with Pirates next week and maintains its dominance.

[RUR]

Originally Posted by marzetta7

I hope it jumps 70/30 with Pirates next week and maintains its dominance.

Definitely will be an interesting week. Personally, I think HD DVD's gonna take a beating, Matrix or no Matrix. Django (aka Mr. Personality) posted a while back that Matrix will sell more than all BD's combined for the week. I'm looking forward to respectfully reminding him of that prediction.

[RUR]

W/E 5/20

Top 10 hidef sellers

1 The Fountain BD 100.00
2 Planet Earth HD 84.89
3 The Fountain HD 66.64
4 Planet Earth BD 61.80
5 Stomp the Yard BD 50.01
6 Casino Royale BD 41.61
7 Night at the Museum BD 38.23
8 Deja Vu BD 34.96
9 Digital Video Essentials HD 23.70
10 Batman Begins HD 23.52

Top 5 BD
1. The Fountain 100.00
2. Planet Earth 61.80
3. Stomp the Yard 50.01
4. Casino Royale 41.61
5. Night at the Museum 38.23

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. The Fountain 78.50
3. Digital Video Essentials 27.92
4. Batman Begins 27.70
5. Smokin' Aces 24.95

[jon s]

until Warner antes up and starts releasing some of the missing titles (Batman Begins, Grand Prix, etc) and Fox starts scheduling and releasing more titles, I do not expect the sales figures to change much. right now, only Sony-Columbia, Paramount and half-a**ed Warner are releasing titles on Blu-Ray, not enuff to really to push sales over one side.