81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[L or S of Perfect?]

While a good movie, bourne will not outsell transformers. Bourne will not deliver any sort of "death blow" to blu-ray. Wasn't that transformers job? After 2 weeks, look what happened...

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I'd like nothing more than vaughn to be proven completely wrong. It did not sound right that Pirates did less than 100k and only 3 titles were over 10k.....then he says the overall volume was HUGE. It just didn't add up.

he didn't say that in the past when he leaked numbers that he was estimating this time he did. he was def. favoring hd dvd with these predictions. i believe the 3 movies in the five figures range would have to be PE HD DVD, Superbad, Pirates 3. so transformers couldn't even crack 10k a few weeks before xmas, thats suprising, and same with 300 on blu-ray thats been doing a solid 12-15k/week, spiderman has been doing about 20k and now im expected to believe it just collapsed down to 9k, and die hard dropped off the deep end too, DV your numbers don't make sense. im starting to smell fear and that the numbers on fri. are going to be huge.

[JBlacklow]

With the data from VB, I wonder if we can discount David's estimate.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by JBlacklow

With the data from VB, I wonder if we can discount David's estimate.

well, VB didn't say if they got their info from videoscan, so i don't think we can discredit DV just yet.

[mel2]

Talk about having nothing to buy. hd dvd only has one new title from the last 4 weeks in the hd dvd top ten this week and it was battlestar galactica. very sad.

Rentrak's Top 10 selling discs for w/e 12/09 for each format as published by Video Business:

Blu-ray
1 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END (DIS, $34.99)
2 SUPERBAD (SONY, $43.95)
3 LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD (FOX, $39.98)
4 RATATOUILLE (DIS, $34.99)
5 300 (WB, $34.99)
6 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
7 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
8 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL (DIS, $34.99)
9 THE POLAR EXPRESS (WB, $28.99)
10 DIE HARD COLLECTION (FOX, $129.98)

HD DVD
1 TRANSFORMERS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 300 (WB, $39.99)
3 THE BOURNE SUPREMACY (UNI, $34.99)
4 OCEAN'S THIRTEEN (WB, $39.99)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
7 SHREK THE THIRD (DW/PAR, $39.99)
8 BATTLESTAR GALACTICA: SEASON 1 (UNI, $99.98)
9 POLAR EXPRESS (WB, $28.99)
10 HEROES: SEASON 1 (UNI, $99.98)

[Digital Filmmaker]

I was hoping that there would be a big Blu BOGO this week - like with the Transformers week. I bought 12 BDs last week with the two Amazon BOGOs. So far, I've only bought one BD this week, and will probably end it with three or four more. Too bad there wasn't a big Blu exclusive title to counter Bourne, but I still think that Blu-ray will prevail in numbers for the week - hopefully, but by a very slim margin.

[stockstar1138]

[QUOTE=mel2;410486]Talk about having nothing to buy. hd dvd only has one new title from the last 4 weeks in the hd dvd top ten this week and it was battlestar galactica. very sad.

Rentrak's Top 10 selling discs for w/e 12/09 for each format as published by Video Business:

Blu-ray
1 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END (DIS, $34.99)
2 SUPERBAD (SONY, $43.95)
3 LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD (FOX, $39.98)
4 RATATOUILLE (DIS, $34.99)
5 300 (WB, $34.99)
6 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
7 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
8 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL (DIS, $34.99)
9 THE POLAR EXPRESS (WB, $28.99)
10 DIE HARD COLLECTION (FOX, $129.98)

HD DVD
1 TRANSFORMERS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 300 (WB, $39.99)
3 THE BOURNE SUPREMACY (UNI, $34.99)
4 OCEAN'S THIRTEEN (WB, $39.99)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 PLANET EARTH

well it looks like DV was is discreditied, he claimed PE was #1 for HD DVD

[atomik kinder]

[QUOTE=stockstar1138;410490]

Originally Posted by mel2

Talk about having nothing to buy. hd dvd only has one new title from the last 4 weeks in the hd dvd top ten this week and it was battlestar galactica. very sad.

Rentrak's Top 10 selling discs for w/e 12/09 for each format as published by Video Business:

Blu-ray
1 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END (DIS, $34.99)
2 SUPERBAD (SONY, $43.95)
3 LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD (FOX, $39.98)
4 RATATOUILLE (DIS, $34.99)
5 300 (WB, $34.99)
6 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (DIS, $34.99)
7 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
8 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL (DIS, $34.99)
9 THE POLAR EXPRESS (WB, $28.99)
10 DIE HARD COLLECTION (FOX, $129.98)

HD DVD
1 TRANSFORMERS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 300 (WB, $39.99)
3 THE BOURNE SUPREMACY (UNI, $34.99)
4 OCEAN'S THIRTEEN (WB, $39.99)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 PLANET EARTH

well it looks like DV was is discreditied, he claimed PE was #1 for HD DVD

Just thinking the same thing

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

vaughn says he was estimating the numbers, so i feel this source to be much more credible. it does not appear as if the numbers are shipped numbers either, because they talk about dvd sales (not shipments) and i would think disney would have put more than 160k on store shelves too. i think DV understated POTC, because Rat did not do nearly as well as a lot had expected (70k). i'd be intrested to see what kind of effect this has on his %s if this is true. i'd say it easily bumps bd up to about 78:22.

I think Vaughn is just reading the numbers off Videoscan, I don't think he's estimating.

Nonetheless, the 160k is definitely not the shipped number. I know how many Disney shipped, and it's a lot more than that.

[Jimbo976]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

well it looks like DV was is discreditied, he claimed PE was #1 for HD DVD

Rentrak != Videoscan

I think the discrepancy between what DV said (under 100,000 for POTC) and the Video Bus article (160,000 for POTC) is because the numbers he is reading are only the actual units sold that were recorded by Videoscan at points of sale. Since Videoscan only track a little over 50% of the sales (maybe 60% - can't remember) it will not show the full total. Extrapolation and estimation have to be done to get actual total sales per week.

Note that he also said Videoscan did not show Transformers, Spiderman 3 or Live Free or Die Hard as having 100,000 in their 1st weeks.

Quote from him...

No title sold over 100K this week. In fact, according to the VS numbers, Transformers didn't sell that many, SM3 didn't sell that many and DH4 didn't sell that many. The VS numbers don't count all outlets nor does it account for sales to rental outlets, so while I'm very confident that all of the titles listed above sold over 100K copies in their first week, they include all sales and not just the VS sales data.

[Chris Beveridge]

IF some of the rankings hold up in videoscan, and we get percentages, it'll be very interesting to see how Superbad sells when taken against pirates. Comedies typically do not do well, but if this sustained well, that's a very positive sign considering how poorly comedies have done on HD DVD. And it potentially bodes well for the Simpsons movie too.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by Jimbo976

Rentrak != Videoscan

I think the discrepancy between what DV said (under 100,000 for POTC) and the Video Bus article (160,000 for POTC) is because the numbers he is reading are only the actual units sold that were recorded by Videoscan at points of sale. Since Videoscan only track a little over 50% of the sales (maybe 60% - can't remember) it will not show the full total. Extrapolation and estimation have to be done to get actual total sales per week.

Note that he also said Videoscan did not show Transformers, Spiderman 3 or Live Free or Die Hard as having 100,000 in their 1st weeks.

Quote from him...

how are we going to account for the discrepency in him saying PE was #1 for HD DVD for the week and the REntrek numbers saying it was not. he said he was estimating, i don't think he knows anything. plus, hasn't he always leaked the numbers on thurs. before.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

how are we going to account for the discrepency in him saying PE was #1 for HD DVD for the week and the REntrek numbers saying it was not. he said he was estimating, i don't think he knows anything. plus, hasn't he always leaked the numbers on thurs. before.

Based on the detail he's given about differences in sales volume of titles...

I think it's safe to say he's just reading the numbers verbatim, not estimating. These numbers are actually complete earlier than thursday, so it's not at all out of the question he has em this early. And his data seems correct...I see no reason to doubt it.

As for the discrepancy of PE number 1 versus Rentrak...look at last week. PE was number 1 on videoscan, and like number 7 on Rentrak. That discrepancy seems consistent with last week's actual numbers.

[WickyWoo]

2. Bourne does 125k

Seriously seriously doubt it. While some people enjoy it, Bourne is not HD porn. It's a grainy, high contrasty, shakey cam mess of a film in the cinematography.

Transformers is pretty, and that alone is good for at least 20k in sales. Bourne will do 60-70k

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

how are we going to account for the discrepency in him saying PE was #1 for HD DVD for the week and the REntrek numbers saying it was not. he said he was estimating, i don't think he knows anything. plus, hasn't he always leaked the numbers on thurs. before.

The estimating was obviously a hint-hint, so you should expect the numbers he said to be the ones that show up on Friday. Rentrak has been way different than Nielsen/Videoscan before, so I don't think that means much. And his comment about no title selling 100k read like he meant they didn't the First Alert numbers, but then only one title has (300 on Blu-ray) and studio claims seem to be about double the First Alert numbers at this point.

I'm a little baffled as to why people are upset with Dave about this. I appreciate that he is providing these numbers (and I think the odds are close to zero that when we see HMM it will be different than what he said, unless there is a rounding issue).

--Darin

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

I'm coming out of my posting hibernation to call BS. I appreciate the boundless optimism, but Bourne is going to do CRAZY well. Transformers doesn't appeal to the (affecting hoity-toity faux British accent) more sophisticated film connoisseurs. Bourne does. And should, frankly! Nevermind. The point is, the Blu-Side has a shit load of youngins and gamers due to PS3 effect, while HD DVD doesnt. People bought HD DVD players just for the movies, and I've got to believe that "film buffs" or "film Nazis" or whatever you want to call them, the Michael Imperiolis (man I hate that ad), are gonna buy a lot more Bourne. It may not topple BD's reign, but we're not helping anyone by downplaying that title. It's at 111 on the IMDb's top 250 OF ALL TIME, the most critially acclaimed action movie of the year and made a shit load of money. Hell, I really liked Transformers quite bit, but I'd shoot my mother in the face on her birthday to get Bourne on BD!

Apparently the stores weren't notified of this since what I checked out had at least 4 times as many Harry Potter DVDs as Bourne DVDs. (BDs and HD DVDs as well) Many stores only had a few spaces dedicted to Bourne while Harry Potter had enire racks and shelves. It think it was a mistake to release Bourne on DVD the same week as Potter.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Seriously seriously doubt it. While some people enjoy it, Bourne is not HD porn. It's a grainy, high contrasty, shakey cam mess of a film in the cinematography.

Transformers is pretty, and that alone is good for at least 20k in sales. Bourne will do 60-70k

i was being overly conservative. i wanted to show ppl how ridiculous numbers would have to get just to achieve a tie. its not going to happen for hd dvd..

[blu2]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Seriously seriously doubt it. While some people enjoy it, Bourne is not HD porn. It's a grainy, high contrasty, shakey cam mess of a film in the cinematography.

Transformers is pretty, and that alone is good for at least 20k in sales. Bourne will do 60-70k

Bourne sold 3M DVDs on the 1st day, which is not too shabby. I think you're low balling bourne, but time will tell.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6512540.html

Sources say that counting sales into the rental channel, The Bourne Ultimatum has sold 3 million copies on its first day on sale in North America. That is strong considering Shrek the Third, which trumped Bourne at the box office by about $100 million,was estimated to have sold about 1.5 million to 2 million on its first day. Bourne grossed $227 million in the U.S., to Shrek’s $321 million.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Apparently the stores weren't notified of this since what I checked out had at least 4 times as many Harry Potter DVDs as Bourne DVDs. (BDs and HD DVDs as well) Many stores only had a few spaces dedicted to Bourne while Harry Potter had enire racks and shelves. It think it was a mistake to release Bourne on DVD the same week as Potter.

Speaking of this, Fry's Electronics here (Dallas) was quite interesting.

They didn't (seem to) order any HD-DVD Potter box sets, nor too many of the movies either.

So there is a *massive* Harry Potter display. Two entire sides devoted to DVD, almost 2 to Blu-Ray, and a single shelf for HD-DVDs. On top of the whole thing was a huge pile of Blu-Ray and DVD box sets. Not a single HD-DVD box set in the entire display.

I wish I'd found someone knowledgeable at the store to ask why all this was, it was shocking. That particular Fry's couldn't have helped HD-DVD sell that week even if they were invaded by all of AVS, they flat out didn't have the discs.

Fun part was in spite of all of this they weren't selling out. :P

Bourne, by the way, had a small pile in the HD section and that was it.

[Dave J]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

how are we going to account for the discrepency in him saying PE was #1 for HD DVD for the week and the REntrek numbers saying it was not. he said he was estimating, i don't think he knows anything. plus, hasn't he always leaked the numbers on thurs. before.

A little background on Rentrak. They only track B&M stores and not any online retailers.

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.