81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

True, but it's nice to win the whole of 2007 anyway.

I'm glad Winn's numbers weren't genuine. I really expect to see Blu-ray over 60% share (even with all the HD DVD deals flying around).

yeah the 52 weeks was great...

but saying we dominated the entire 2007 sounds so much better...

[Rustmonsteru]

Originally Posted by Ops2p

Quote:
Which is why next week will be the last...unless Warner announces their intentions before the numbers come out, at which point, it won't matter anymore.

Could someone please explain this

Warner goes Red so it doesn't matter.

Or Warner goes Blu so it doesn't matter.

Or am I just reading into something thats just not there.

I think everyone is reading way to much into that. Relax.

[g.k.]

Originally Posted by Rustmonsteru

I think everyone is reading way to much into that. Relax.

Definitely, DV has stated numerous times that he believes that whichever way Warner goes will eventually be the winning side and end the war, so from that point of view the numbers wouldn't matter anymore regardless.

[xmositox]

Well if warner goes red......

I think we are pretty much split down the middle

Warner Paramount Universal (and their smaller studios)

VS

Sony Lionsgate Fox Disney (and their smaller studios)


It will pretty much be a stalemate unless one their a another shift and another studio changes side.

If Warner goes Blu then its all over.....

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by xmositox

Well if warner goes red......

I think we are pretty much split down the middle

Warner Paramount Universal (and their smaller studios)

VS

Sony Lionsgate Fox Disney (and their smaller studios)


It will pretty much be a stalemate unless one their a another shift and another studio changes side.

If Warner goes Blu then its all over.....

Warner is in the best position of all the studios currently, they are getting the benefits from both formats. Why should they control the cards? I understand the benefits of going exclusive, but why THEM? Universal could just as easy see what they are missing out on and play their hand as well. I just don't see why were putting all our cards into Warner?

[UTVOL06]

man, people are beating this WB issue to death. Why can't we just wait and see what happens at CES?

[zipbags]

Originally Posted by UTVOL06

man, people are beating this WB issue to death. Why can't we just wait and see what happens at CES?

Where's the fun in that?

[Azumi]

Post edited (posted in the wrong thread)

[w_tanoto]

so, what's the number for the last week of 2007? (after that 76 and 61%)?

sorry, i missed large amount of posts, and am using dial-up

[Jimbo976]

The week that ended Dec. 23 was 61:39 Blu-ray as well as the week before it was.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

Warner is in the best position of all the studios currently, they are getting the benefits from both formats. Why should they control the cards? I understand the benefits of going exclusive, but why THEM? Universal could just as easy see what they are missing out on and play their hand as well. I just don't see why were putting all our cards into Warner?

It's easy, Warner going exclusive to either side would literally assure the war ends due to all the big titles being exclusive only on that said format. IMO they have the most potential with big titles releasing throughout the year (not comedies that don't sale but BIG ACTION titles):

I Am Legend (will be $250 mill or more by the time it hits dvd) - I'm thinking this is a title that will hit April or May this year.

Dark Knight (this will be at least $200 mill or more by the time it hits dvd) - This is a Nov tent pole title that will rival Iron Man in consumer awarness.

Then there is titles like Speed Racer or 10,000 BC. Titles that are perfect for highdef. That's why it's really assumed if Warner does go HD-DVD exclusive it will be a HUGE hit to Blu-ray because it would mean it's quite possible that most of the big action hits would be exclusive to HD-DVD for 2008. Heck Iron Man and The Mummy 3 is already assumed exclusive on HD.....consumers will notice if the big Warner hits are exclusive to either format.

[CptGreedle]

[Elandyll]

My Predictions for 2008

1 - Within the first three weeks of January, we see the first 8x-2x or worse ratio in Nielsen-Videoscan history for Blu Ray vs HD DVD (for Blu, of course)

2- HD DVD tries to compete with a B1G1 or two during the rest of Jan-Feb, but is pretty much stuck around 7x-3x at best

3- There was No Major anouncements at the CES, except that Warner confirms they are re-evaluating their stance, Blu Ray chinese players and Funai players are anounced for Spring at sub $249 prices, and a Big Bulky Retail store anounces they are going Blu Ray exclusive, which goes to make big headlines in the industry and the press.
Gates at his keynote speech does not anounce anything special regarding HD DVD, but put a big emphasis on the future of digital distribution and VoD (aka dowloads), and hints at a new (more "HD oriented") version of Vista, that he will name Vista Cruiser (ok I'm pushing it).
Several new 1.1 models are presented, and Sony anounces the deadline for 2.0

4- Following this, Toshiba and HD DVD enter a phase of thrashing and pushing, end of jan/early Feb with more Amazon Bogos, some Walmart deals and probaly another "special" with A3's at $79 or $89 for a week end.
Blu Ray anounces machine prices down to $249 for 1.0 players for Spring, along with the arrival of the new 1.1 models
HD DVD fanboys anounce that with the 3 days $79 machines, it's over for Blu Ray, despite the numbers of standalone players having shifted toward Blu seriosuly since Xmas 07...

5- Mid Feb., Warner cancels several HD DVD releases scheduled for later on.
Speculations run wild in the blogosphere, HD DVD fanboys say that they are just preparing to go Red exclusive.
Worldwide, the ratio Blu / HD is published and said to be about 80-20.

6- End of Feb., in a speech of general intentions/policy for Warner, the new CEO (about middle of speech, among other things) denotes that after carefully reviewing the market, the logical move is now for Warner to go Blu Ray exclusive, with all new releases affected. He notes (him or a Rep later in Q&A) that Catalog titles still only present in HD DVD only will be released by year end on Blu progressively following this change. BB most notably will have a "BR deluxe" release jointly with the "Dark Knight" release.

7- End of Feb. Major commotion in HD industry, Analysts publish their "HD DVD is dead" prognostics and journalists akin. Other retail stores anounce their intention of going Blu Ray exclusive within a short period of time.

8- Mid March, NBC/Universal in a speech toward their investors declare that it now makes sense for them to move toward Neutrality, given the strength that blu Ray shows and that its finalized spec is looming on the horizon.
The Nielsen sales ratio is now deadlocked in the high 80's low 10's for Blu Ray.

9- Mid April - The new Chinese BR players arrive, your average Samsung 1400 can now be found as low as $198, a Funai 1.1 at $219, and a Chinese 1.0 (1.1?) at $149. Denon anounces its first 2.0 for the summer, ultra high-end, for a price of $699/$799 (will be found at $499/$599 by Xmas).

10 - end of April/early May - BDA anounces War is all but over, with more than 80% (since Weinstein joined) of the film market, and a split at 90-10 of disc sales.
Hardware sales of standalones Blu Ray since Inception just passed HD DVD+Add on, as sales, alredy strong in 08, exploded with the cheaper models.

11- Mid May Sony releses the BD-600, their first 2.0 with BD-Live enabled, along with the grand opening of "Home" for PS3. BD-Live uses can share tons of things (reminiscent of the HD DVD "favorite scens and co), and PS3 Blu Ray viewers can create a "virtual home", etc...
At first a $599 player, the BD-600 will rapidly fall in the $399-$499 range (before Xmas 08).

12- June 2008 / An insider leaked to Niki / NYT that Toshiba is about to propose a "ceasefire" to the BDA. In exchange for stopping the production of any and all HD DVD, Toshiba is allowed a voting spot on the BDA board members. The BDA votes yes, Tosh is in minority on the board anyway.
Paramount, un-surprisingly, uses this as an excuse to go back to Neutral with a Press-anouncement with the key point being that "the consumers have chosen, but we will not give up on the HD DVD market at this point". A lot of people note the hypocrisy between this and dumping Blu Ray from one day to the next in 2007. Some think that the $150M contract might allow them to go Neutral under certain conditions, but not Blu Exclusive (until Feb. 09, that is).

13- July 2008, official anouncement by Toshiba, primarily to their shareholders, to explain the change in strategy. Placing the blame of the HD DVD fiasco squarely on the CEO of Toshiba Electronics' shoulders, he anounces his resignation effective end of July 2008.

14- August 2008, It becomes nigh impossible to find a HD DVD players, no software available except on Amazon (used) and Ebay. Some Walmarts still have a few stocks of A2's and A3's unsold, discounted putting the emphasis on "DVD upscale converter". Most people now scoff at the "1080i" only label.
Despite not having moved from their supposed "Neutral" standpoint, neither Univeral or Paramount schedule any HD DVD releases, and haven't been since a few weeks. The HD DVD releases previously anounced have mysteriously vanished from the "Coming Soon" pages. Both Studios just wish that nobody will ask them about it, and trying hard to forget about this "stupid war".
Some Blu Ray Recorders/ Hard Drive combo are scheduled to arrive year end to Europe and the US (already avail in Japan for a while).

15 - September 2008, article in HMM "High Def takes Flight!", anouncing that with new titles regularly in the top sellers spots, HD is really starting to show its strength, and volumes are now starting to look like what they should have been if the war hadn't put everything on hold for so long. The terms "Blu Ray High Def" and "High Def" are getting to be pretty much synonymous for your average person. Some retail vendors still don't know that Blu Ray players can play DVDs, and advise HDTV buyers to buy both a DVD upconverter -and- a Blu Ray player <rolls eyes>.
Samsung and LG anounce that they will pogressively phase out their HD DVD / Blu Ray combos in favor of Hard Drive/BR recorder combos, but no rush as they can play BR anyway.

16- October 2008, Several Cable providers, including Cox, anounce the availability of a HD DVR/ Blu Ray player box. This is hot on the tail of a leaked "good surprise" being prepared by Sony for Xmas 08.
First HD/ Blu Ray recorder combos being sold around $499.

17- Xmas 08 / Sony unveils a new patch (possibly paying extension) for the PS3 that transforms it into a full HD DVR in the US (been avail. for a while in Japan).
Walmart has a $329 Samsung Blu Ray + Hard drive Combo offer.


Here. Maybe just a "tad" on the optimist side, and probably too fast, but that's my 2008 list of predictions for a happy Blu world

[krispyjala]

Originally Posted by Elandyll

My Predictions for 2008

1 - Within the first three weeks of January, we see the first 8x-2x or worse ratio in Nielsen-Videoscan history for Blu Ray vs HD DVD (for Blu, of course)

2- HD DVD tries to compete with a B1G1 or two during the rest of Jan-Feb, but is pretty much stuck around 7x-3x at best

3- There was No Major anouncements at the CES, except that Warner confirms they are re-evaluating their stance, Blu Ray chinese players and Funai players are anounced for Spring at sub $249 prices, and a Big Bulky Retail store anounces they are going Blu Ray exclusive, which goes to make big headlines in the industry and the press.
Gates at his keynote speech does not anounce anything special regarding HD DVD, but put a big emphasis on the future of digital distribution and VoD (aka dowloads), and hints at a new (more "HD oriented") version of Vista, that he will name Vista Cruiser (ok I'm pushing it).
Several new 1.1 models are presented, and Sony anounces the deadline for 2.0

4- Following this, Toshiba and HD DVD enter a phase of thrashing and pushing, end of jan/early Feb with more Amazon Bogos, some Walmart deals and probaly another "special" with A3's at $79 or $89 for a week end.
Blu Ray anounces machine prices down to $249 for 1.0 players for Spring, along with the arrival of the new 1.1 models

5- Mid Feb., Warner cancels several HD DVD releases scheduled for later on.
Speculations run wild in the blogosphere, HD DVD fanboys say that they are just preparing to go Red exclusive.
Worldwide, the ratio Blu / HD is published and said to be about 80-20.

6- End of Feb., in a speech of general intentions/policy for Warner, the new CEO (about middle of speech, among other things) denotes that after carefully reviewing the market, the logical move is now for Warner to go Blu Ray exclusive, with all new releases affected. He notes (him or a Rep later in Q&A) that Catalog titles still only present in HD DVD only will be released by year end on Blu progressively following this change. BB most notably will have a "BR deluxe" release jointly with the "Dark Knight" release.

7- End of Feb. Major commotion in HD industry, Analysts publish their "HD DVD is dead" prognostics and journalists akin. Other retail stores anounce their intention of going Blu Ray exclusive within a short period of time.

8- Mid March, NBC/Universal in a speech toward their investors declare that it now makes sense for them to move toward Neutrality, given the strength that blu Ray shows and that its finalized spec is looming on the horizon.
The Nielsen sales ratio is now deadlocked in the high 80's low 10's for Blu Ray.

9- Mid April - The new Chinese BR players arrive, your average Samsung 1400 can now be found as low as $198, a Funai 1.1 at $219, and a Chinese 1.0 (1.1?) at $149. Denon anounces its first 2.0 for the summer, ultra high-end, for a price of $699/$799 (will be found at $499/$599 by Xmas).

10 - end of April/early May - BDA anounces War is all but over, with more than 80% (since Weinstein joined) of the film market, and a split at 90-10 of disc sales.
Hardware sales of standalones Blu Ray since Inception just passed HD DVD+Add on, as sales, alredy strong in 08, exploded with the cheaper models.

11- Mid May Sony releses the BD-600, their first 2.0 with BD-Live enabled, along with the grand opening of "Home" for PS3. BD-Live uses can share tons of things (reminiscent of the HD DVD "favorite scens and co), and PS3 Blu Ray viewers can create a "virtual home", etc...
At first a $599 player, the BD-600 will rapidly fall in the $399-$499 range (before Xmas 08).

12- June 2008 / An insider leaked to Niki / NYT that Toshiba is about to propose a "ceasefire" to the BDA. In exchange for stopping the production of any and all HD DVD, Toshiba is allowed a voting spot on the BDA board members. The BDA votes yes, Tosh is in minority on the board anyway.
Paramount, un-surprisingly, uses this as an excuse to go back to Neutral with a Press-anouncement with the key point being that "the consumers have chosen, but we will not give up on the HD DVD market at this point". A lot of people note the hypocrisy between this and dumping Blu Ray from one day to the next in 2007. Some think that the $150M contract might allow them to go Neutral under certain conditions, but not Blu Exclusive (until Feb. 09, that is).

13- July 2008, official anouncement by Toshiba, primarily to their shareholders, to explain the change in strategy. Placing the blame of the HD DVD fiasco squarely on the CEO of Toshiba Electronics' shoulders, he anounces his resignation effective end of July 2008.

14- August 2008, It becomes nigh impossible to find a HD DVD players, no software available except on Amazon (used) and Ebay. Some Walmarts still have a few stocks of A2's and A3's unsold, discounted putting the emphasis on "DVD upscale converter". Most people now scoff at the "1080i" only label.
Despite not having moved from their supposed "Neutral" standpoint, neither Univeral or Paramount schedule any HD DVD releases, and haven't been since a few weeks. The HD DVD releases previously anounced have mysteriously vanished from the "Coming Soon" pages. Both Studios just wish that nobody will ask them about it, and trying hard to forget about this "stupid war".
Some Blu Ray Recorders/ Hard Drive combo are scheduled to arrive year end to Europe and the US (already avail in Japan for a while).

15 - September 2008, article in HMM "High Def takes Flight!", anouncing that with new titles regularly in the top sellers spots, HD is really starting to show its strength, and volumes are now starting to look like what they should have been if the war hadn't put everything on hold for so long. The terms "Blu Ray High Def" and "High Def" are getting to be pretty much synonymous for your average person. Some retail vendors still don't know that Blu Ray players can play DVDs, and advise HDTV buyers to buy both a DVD upconverter -and- a Blu Ray player <rolls eyes>.
Samsung and LG anounce that they will pogressively phase out their HD DVD / Blu Ray combos in favor of Hard Drive/BR recorder combos, but no rush as they can play BR anyway.

16- October 2008, Several Cable providers, including Cox, anounce the availability of a HD DVR/ Blu Ray player box. This is hot on the tail of a leaked "good surprise" being prepared by Sony for Xmas 08.
First HD/ Blu Ray recorder combos being sold around $499.

17- Xmas 08 / Sony unveils a new patch (possibly paying extension) for the PS3 that transforms it into a full HD DVR in the US (been avail. for a while in Japan).
Walmart has a $329 Samsung Blu Ray + Hard drive Combo offer.


Here. Maybe just a "tad" on the optimist side, and probably too fast, but that's my 2008 list of predictions for a happy Blu world

Thanks for typing all that up. It's a very good, detailed guess of what might happen. Here's to 2008 being another great blu year!

[ottscay]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

Haha, that's AWESOME!. For anyone who doesn't get it, go brush up on your US history...

[beavis667]

Originally Posted by Elandyll

17- Xmas 08 / Sony unveils a new patch (possibly paying extension) for the PS3 that transforms it into a full HD DVR in the US (been avail. for a while in Japan).

How does the PS3 HD-DVR work? Does it record over the air stuff HD with the help of a USB HD tuner or something?

[CptGreedle]

Originally Posted by ottscay

Haha, that's AWESOME!. For anyone who doesn't get it, go brush up on your US history...

[Elandyll]

Originally Posted by beavis667

How does the PS3 HD-DVR work? Does it record over the air stuff HD with the help of a USB HD tuner or something?

Possibly
I just remembered reading an article about Sony working on this jointly with Cable opearators in Asia, probably preparing to launch a big HD DVR (Ps3 based) offer through some cable operators in Japan and a few otehr Asian countries.
Analysts say that MS is preapring the same for the Xbox, the lack of an integrated HD player being of course a handicap vs the PS3 offer
(but again the release of a Xbox with HD player would most certainly be too little too late at this point)

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by ottscay

Haha, that's AWESOME!. For anyone who doesn't get it, go brush up on your US history...

For those who do not know:

"Join, or Die"

A political cartoon drawn in 1754 by Benjamin Franklin. It was published in the Pennsylvania Gazette in support of the Albany Congress, whose purpose was to present a united English colonial front against the French in North America at the outbreak of the French and Indian War. In this cartoon, entitled "Join, or Die," Franklin is making the point that if England's American colonies (labeled with initials) do not stand together against the French, they will be no more effective than small pieces of a chopped up (and hence useless) snake. It is only if they act together that they can prevail. The words are very few but powerful: "Join, or Die."

Historian Thomas A. Bailey has termed this cartoon "the most famous cartoon of the colonial era" (Bailey, 56). Colonial cooperation was indeed needed during the French and Indian War, and was even more necessary later during the American Revolution.

The point of Benjamin Franklin's 1754 political cartoon was well made, and the colonial cooperation that it helped to foster led eventually to the creation of the United States of America.

[Shin-Ra]

See:

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