81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[k20king]

Time for a Buy-a-thon?!

I will be Buying over 20 BD's in the Next 2 Weeks!

[bbg]

How do we know that the week ending 12/30 will be 61:39?

I heard someone say it's on DV - what's DV?

Sorry for the noob questions ...

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by k20king

Time for a Buy-a-thon?!

I will be Buying over 20 BD's in the Next 2 Weeks!

The fact that people say things like "Buy-a-thon" with a straight face is disturbing.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by greekjgg

I'm not going to push the panic button, but wouldn't a 1% increase in YTD for HD Dud during the 4th quarter suggest that they did have to move quite a bit of titles to take that 1% chunk for us?

It would seem that little things like this are what Warner would discuss in planning for the next year.

Averaging two huge sales weeks of 61:39 (as of these 12/23 numbers) into the YTD 65:35 average was apparently enough to swing it a point to 64:36.

I highly doubt that will mean anything for Warner. If anything, they were looking to see if all the cheap HD DVD units dumped on the marketplace were going to cause any sort of major swing toward HD DVD. A barely perceptible blip isn't what they were looking for. HD DVD had some good titles and sales, and they couldn't even come close to parity in individual weeks, much less the YTD.

[Proteus]

Well... Now that WB announced Blu exclusivity I guess we can not worry about these numbers anymore.

It's all over.

I'm gonna miss checking in here weekly for the latest Neilsens...

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by NutsAboutPS3

But why do we care about so called "gained ground" in percentage terms? If a football team is 2-0 down at half time and 4-1 down at full time, we don't describe them as having pulled back in the second half just because their share of the goals has gone from 0% to 20%. We describe them as having had their ass handed to them.

Because momentum is a huge thing in this industry, and because it doesn't end in the second half like a football game. If, to use your numbers, a format war starts off 100:0 then goes to 75:25, you can bet people's interest will start perking up to see what's going to happen next.

If HD DVD pulls out a miracle and goes 80:20 the next two months, they will at that point be considered by far the winning format, even though they will not have passed total BD sales yet. Any movement in that direction is going to be interesting if it's significant and sustained.

DVD was considered a big success when it will still losing to LaserDisc. Why? Because it had all the momentum. LaserDisc numbers were trending down, and DVD numbers were trending up.

By the time DVD actually caught up with LaserDisc sales, the news stories about it were pretty tiny because nobody cared about LaserDisc anymore. By your logic in a previous post, LaserDisc was still "winning" right up to that point, but they'd already been completely written off by everyone.

Now, before I get misinterpreted, I do not see any turnaround for HD DVD. Their cheap players were a last big attempt to move the numbers in a big way, and it budged them a tiny bit, and, combined with some good titles and sales, got them only a percentage point gain in the YTD numbers. That unimpressive performance now looks more like a last gasp than a second wind.

All I'm doing it pointing out mathematically when the HD DVD to BD ratio is higher than the YTD/SI ratio, for that week they gain ground in the YTD/SI numbers. Likewise, when the BD numbers are better, then they gain ground.

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

DVD was considered a big success when it will still losing to LaserDisc. Why? Because it had all the momentum. LaserDisc numbers were trending down, and DVD numbers were trending up.

Well, what we have here is more like both BD and HD DVD numbers trending up, but BD trending up faster than HD DVD in absolute terms, even if that results in HD DVD slightly increasing their percentage share while falling further and further behind in absolute terms.

Anyway, it seems Warner see it my way and have made the right decision.

Just remember that the only reason people on forums look at %s is because that is mainly all we are given by HMM. In the industry they have the real numbers of absolute numbers sold, and that is what they will have looked at to make their decision.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by NutsAboutPS3

Sorry, but your logic is like saying that a football team that is 2-0 down at half time and 100-1 down at full time has gained ground in the 2nd half because their share of the goals went up from 0% to 1%. I don't think anybody thinks about it like that in the real world, they look at the gap in absolute terms not as a percentage.

So in the real world nobody looks at percentages, they think in absolute terms?

How odd then that all the industry magazines seem to obsessed with percentages. They must be living in a fake world.

Both are obviously important. At this point, where it's a format war and the consensus seems to be one side is going to win it, the percentages are what counts, with a bias toward current numbers. Can you seriously deny that if the numbers went like this in future weeks you wouldn't be worried?:

61:39
60:40
59:41
58:42
57:43
56:44
55:45
54:46
53:47
52:48
51:49

Be honest, at this point are you saying, "ha ha, we've increased our absolute lead EVERY WEEK", or are you saying, "uh oh"? So far all your posts indicate the former, but I'm not buying it.

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by Proteus

Well... Now that WB announced Blu exclusivity I guess we can not worry about these numbers anymore.

It's all over.

I'm gonna miss checking in here weekly for the latest Neilsens...

I'm giddy, but am too going to miss the weekly analysis. We can still do it for a while, but we all know this WAR IS OVAH! SHOW'S OVAH!

[Terjyn]

You can look at percentages, but not universally, you have to look at more.

Last year HD-DVD was winning 100% to 0%. Was this a meaningful number?

Percentages always need a context. We don't have a context to understand percentages, and only rarely have, that being when they released actual numbers to go with them.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

61:39
60:40
59:41
58:42
57:43
56:44
55:45
54:46
53:47
52:48
51:49

This actually has a context. It shows a trend over time. The problem with the HD-DVD argument has always been that they use an individual week, with no context, and say it means something far more global than a single week.

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

How odd then that all the industry magazines seem to obsessed with percentages. They must be living in a fake world.

Not at all, it's a mechanism for them to reduce the value of the information they give us. The full details with absolute numbers cost a lot of money. The fact that they give us the %s for free tells you which bit of information they see as more valuable.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by Proteus

Well... Now that WB announced Blu exclusivity I guess we can not worry about these numbers anymore.

It's all over.

I'm gonna miss checking in here weekly for the latest Neilsens...

Ha ha, I'm here reading this thread, arguing about percentages vs. total numbers, and meanwhile it all becomes irrelevant. Now NutsAboutPS3 and I can be friends again and I don't have to contend with Terjyn's context argument.

Definitely good news. It will still be fun to watch the numbers just to see how they decline over time. At least for a while. And it certainly won't be as intense. Hell, even if HD DVD did pull off a fluke win in the next week or so, it would just be amusing at this point.

Kind of funny that the conventional wisdom had settled into "nothing is going to happen for a while and you guys are going to be disappointed at CES". I didn't buy it, because the head honcho of Fox Home Video clearly indicated some big move (what else could it be but Warner?) would make it clear by CES, which meant CES or earlier, that we would have one format soon:

“The table is probably set for high-def in 2008,” says Dunn. “I think by CES it will be pretty clear there will be one format.”

Link: http://www.variety.com/VR1117977725.html

[Iceman_II]

Dear lord, there are people on this board who can make statistics dance well enough to get approved as honorary FUD'meisters by the other team...

The comparison of 100-1 being statistically better than 2-nill is asinine. All bets are off when you deal with a less than statistically significant sample, and when you DO Have a statistically significant sample, the percentages hold true.

This isn't a football match, it isn't a race to some ultimate finish line where total numbers count... sales ratios are what the studios look for when figuring out what sales will be going FORWARD. Historic sales are useful only in that they help you project future sales and growth. Stock holders don't give a damn about what your sales were last quarter, they want to know what your sales will be NEXT quarter.

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Ha ha, I'm here reading this thread, arguing about percentages vs. total numbers, and meanwhile it all becomes irrelevant. Now NutsAboutPS3 and I can be friends again and I don't have to contend with Terjyn's context argument.

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Definitely good news. It will still be fun to watch the numbers just to see how they decline over time.

Definitely, I've thought for quite a while that the only reason why a consumer would be HD DVD exclusive is if they are confused and do not understand the situation. Now that all Warner releases will be timed BD exclusives until the end of May, it will become clear how many of these confused people there are, because why else would anyone wait and buy the HD DVD versions rather than switching over to Blu-ray straight away?

[Rob Tomlin]

Now that we have Warner, who cares about these numbers?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Now that we have Warner, who cares about these numbers?

Yeah. How many threads just became redundant?

What will we talk about now? Ooo, how about movies and players?!!!

[Jimbo976]

The numbers will go in the 80's and maybe even 90's in the spring leading up to WB discontinuing Red disc releases.

Once Universal starts releasing on Blu-ray it will be completely over.

I agree though. I want to buy a new player/receiver now unless they will come out and say that the PS3 will support DTS HD MA.

[C6 Z06]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Yeah. How many threads just became redundant?

What will we talk about now? Ooo, how about movies and players?!!!

Sweet! A great problem to have.

[dialog_gvf]

I wonder what the NEW new numbers will be this week?

DVD: 99
Blu-ray: 1