Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[bruceames]

Excluding New York, Covid 19 deaths in the first half of May (1st - 16th) were 21,903. The last 16 days (17th - June 1st) they were 14,958. That's a decline of 32%. But since it can take up to 4 weeks from symptoms to death, the snapshot is looking a little further back in time than it would be for cases.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Deaths are a questionable metric when states like Florida, and Georgia among others appear to be covering up their deaths and/or not filing them as COVID deaths.

I doubt they are covering them up. Rather just not reporting consistently. You'll notice deaths are down over their norms in many states over the weekend. They "catch up" during the weekdays.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I doubt they are covering them up. Rather just not reporting consistently. You'll notice deaths are down over their norms in many states over the weekend. They "catch up" during the weekdays.

The chief manager Florida's covid dashboard was pressured to resign because she was ordered to cover up data, and she disagreed with it. De Santis then tried to smear her name.. There's other incidents of Florida covering up data as well. Also look up the stories of them having a significant increase in their Flu deaths this year compared to the past.

[bruceames]

The inconsistency in daily deaths reporting is rather apparent when you look at the line graphs.

Here is cases, which look fairly consistent.




Here is deaths, and as you can see, there is a dip every weekend and a corresponding spike a few days later.



So no coverup conspiracy going on.

[Bigdog]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Deaths are a questionable metric when states like Florida, and Georgia among others appear to be covering up their deaths and/or not filing them as COVID deaths.

I have seen multiple people claiming the reverse though and having loved ones pass away and then wondering why they see Covid marked as the reason on the death certificate when clearly it was not. So as always the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

The chief manager Florida's covid dashboard was pressured to resign because she was ordered to cover up data, and she disagreed with it. De Santis then tried to smear her name.. There's other incidents of Florida covering up data as well. Also look up the stories of them having a significant increase in their Flu deaths this year compared to the past.

So you still think they are covering up cases, by calling it death by another cause, even though the person was fired?

[MifuneFan]

Florida Health Department manager told to delete coronavirus data is ousted

One day before a top Florida Department of Health data manager lost her role maintaining the state’s COVID-19 data, she objected to the removal of records showing people had symptoms or positive tests before the cases were announced, according to internal emails obtained by the Tampa Bay Times.

On Tuesday, a spokeswoman for Gov. Ron DeSantis said she had been fired.

According to the emails, department staff gave the order shortly after reporters requested the same data from the agency on May 5. The data manager, Rebekah Jones, complied with the order, but not before she told her supervisors it was the “wrong call.”
By the next morning, control over the data was given to other employees, according to an email Jones posted Friday on a public listserv. Jones, the department’s geographic information systems manager, wrote that she was no longer handling questions about the department’s “Florida’s COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard.” She implied her removal was an act of retribution.

Jones said Tuesday that she was offered a settlement and the option to resign in lieu of being fired, effective May 26.

The dashboard that Jones managed is the best official source for in-depth data on how the deadly pandemic is moving through the state. Studying it is the surest way to know where outbreaks are growing and where testing is being done. Without access to the data, Floridians would have to rely on the word of officials and politicians without being able to verify for themselves.

Along with the dashboard, the department releases the same data, with only slightly more information, in daily reports, as well as in another format that allows for easier data analysis.

In her Friday email to subscribers of a COVID data listserv, Jones said she was reassigned on May 5 “[f]or reasons beyond my division’s control” and warned that whoever took over may be less straightforward.

“As a word of caution, I would not expect the new team to continue the same level of accessibility and transparency that I made central to the process during the first two months. After all, my commitment to both is largely (arguably entirely) the reason I am no longer managing it,” she wrote.

“They are making a lot of changes. I would advise being diligent in your respective uses of this data.”

Jones also told CBS12 in Tallahassee on Monday that she refused to “manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen” the state.

When asked during a Tuesday news conference about Jones’ public email detailing her reassignment, DeSantis said he did not know who she was but that he had been shown an email that Jones sent to her supervisor, apologizing.

His spokeswoman, Helen Aguirre Ferré, wrote in an email to reporters after the news conference that Jones “exhibited a repeated course of insubordination during her time with the Department, including her unilateral decisions to modify the Department’s COVID-19 dashboard without input or approval from the epidemiological team or her supervisors.”

Ferré's email included the email that DeSantis referenced. Sent Saturday, Jones told her supervisor that her comments about the employees replacing her had been misconstrued.

“What I meant when I said I don’t expect the same level of accessibility is that they are busy and can’t answer every single email they get right away,” Jones wrote to her supervisor. “Is this one of those stupid things I shouldn’t have said?”

Read more here: https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...r-emails-show/

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

So you still think they are covering up cases, by calling it something else, even though the person was fired?

I do. That person specifically says to take the dashboard's data with a grain of salt because they're not being held to the same standards that she had when she managed it.

[MifuneFan]

Very interesting read on an earlier incident of Florida's Dept of Health blocking medical examiners from releasing their own data:

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/lo...vid-19-deaths/

The article isn't specifically about them covering up deaths, though they acknowledge at least a 10% discrepancy between the two. The article mentioned some interesting things that could certainly point to under-reporting, such as:

A major point of contention between the Department of Health and medical examiners was the fact that DOH had been excluding non-resident deaths from its count. Whereas medical examiners count deaths where the person died, DOH's practice has been to count deaths based on the deceased's state of residence. This means that losses among seasonal residents — who account for over 1 million people — have been excluded from the state's death toll.

This is also interesting:

Hospital stays trend shorter in Florida

Florida's hospitalization lengths were days shorter on average than in many countries around the world. Florida's median hospital length for the deceased was seven days, with 45% of the decedents dying within 6 days.

The numbers are closer to those observed in the much more overwhelmed medical system in Italy, where hospital stays before death averaged eight days.

Average data from cases across China, Italy and South Korea used by the University of Washington modelers is longer, with hospital stays prior to death being estimated up to 10 days.

In the UK, the country’s Chief Medical Advisor Chris Whitty reported average hospital stays for COVID-19 patients of 8 days for those not requiring ventilation, and 16 days for those requiring more advanced care.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

I do. That person specifically says to take the dashboard's data with a grain of salt because they're not being held to the same standards that she had when she managed it.

Well if that's the case, then they have probably been doing it all along, which means there still will be consistency in the before and after comparisons. The deaths will be under-reported, but I'm more interested in trends, and some consistency is needed. Cases really can't be used for this until testing capacity is reached.

[bruceames]

Here are the numbers for Florida.

Tests:
April 321,782
May 638,944
An increase of 98%

Cases:
April 27,352
May 22,473
A decline of 18%

The percentage of positive cases:
April: 8.5%
May: 3.5%

Deaths:
April; 1213
May: 1244
An increase of 2.5%

So in spite of doubling testing capacity from April to May, cases dropped nearly 20%. Since deaths are actually up a few percent, if anything they would be "covering up" fewer deaths than before, since the national trend is deaths dropping faster than cases, due to increasing testing capacity.

[MifuneFan]

A colossal increase of 98% in testing, yet a decrease in the raw number of cases doesn't raise any red flags to you? Oof.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

An increase of 98% in testing, yet a decrease in the raw number of cases doesn't raise any red flags to you? Oof

No why should it?

[bruceames]

Georgia...

Tests:
April 132,863
May 255,073
An increase of 92%

Cases:
April 22,226
May 20,831
A decline of 6.3%

The percentage of positive cases:
April: 16.7%
May: 8.2%

Deaths:
April; 1009
May: 922
A decrease of 8.6%

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by bruceames

No why should it?

In most situation, an increase in testing usually leads to an increase in cases found. To have done 300,000 more tests in May, yet ended up with 5,000 less positives than April makes little sense to me. You think a state as large as Florida just acted responsibly, and flattened the curve? Because I'm not buying that, sorry.

[bruceames]

One more for the road: Texas

Tests:
April 287,308
May 621,565
An increase of 116%

Cases:
April 24,821
May 36,200
An increase of 45.8%

The percentage of positive cases:
April: 16.7%
May: 8.2%

Deaths:
April; 741
May: 890
An increase of 20.1%

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

In most situation, an increase in testing usually leads to an increase in cases found. To have done 300,000 more tests in May, yet ended up with 5,000 less positives than April makes little sense to me. You think a state as large as Florida just acted responsibly, and flattened the curve? Because I'm not buying that, sorry.

Well that's the thing. For the U.S. as a whole, testing increased by 97% from April to May, yet cases decreased by 20%. So Florida was about average in that regard. The difference was that Florida deaths did not decrease in proportion to the national average. Thus my point about them likely under-reporting less in May (if at all).

It just goes to show that despite doubling the testing capacity, cases are down, which is a good sign.

[bruceames]

I read a letter to the editor in the WSJ, from an M.D., that it's possible low levels of exposure to the virus, but not enough to get infected, can nevertheless enhance immunity, via antibodies created from fighting it off. Very interesting if true and it could explain why New York's cases dropped so quickly. Haven't found any articles online that mentions this though.


Here is the letter from yesterdays' edition.

Dr. Marc Siegel writes that a surgical mask will protect you, only a little
(“Will a Face Mask Protect You?,” oped, May 19). In fact, a surgical mask
filters 78% to 97% of one-micron particles. When everyone wears masks,
the reduction is even greater especially when keeping some distance.
The size of the inoculum determines
the likelihood and severity of infection in respiratory viral infections. It
is not necessary to avoid every viral
particle when the minimum infecting
dose is often 500 to 1,000 particles.
The CDC recently reported that the
majority of transmission of Covid-19
is through aerosols. The rate of infection from surfaces is estimated to be
only about 6%, with the remainder
from aerosols and contaminated
hands.

At our hospital, we have not had
any infections among the hundreds of
staff with direct exposure to patients
with Covid-19 because they have been
wearing masks, face shields and
gloves. It is even possible that low
levels of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 may
contribute to herd immunity without
disease.

It is important to encourage consistently wearing a surgical mask in
public, maintaining distance, hand
washing, avoiding large gatherings
that are super-spreader situations
and testing with contact tracing and
isolation. This will reduce the R0,
suppressing the epidemic. Each activity is important but wearing masks is
the most important.
THOMAS BIRCH, M.D.
Teaneck, N.J

[chip75]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

A colossal increase of 98% in testing, yet a decrease in the raw number of cases doesn't raise any red flags to you? Oof.

It would be like seeing five red cars in your state and then researching how many red cars there actual are ... and finding only five red cars.

Something's gone wrong somewhere.

[Batman1980]

It's called cover-up.