Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[bruceames]

Here's a recent article which helps explain differing viewpoints on herd immunity.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-t...nity-20200630/

I'm not saying New York and other places have achieved herd immunity, but they are well on their way to it, and are far more protected as a result, then the South and West states of the U.S. getting hit right now.

[y2jman]

finally the wait has been over with got my Mustafa ali and nwo black and white face mask pre order back on 19th last month today

now I got my own masks to wear and if they fall off do the adjustable ear loop thing but maybe these won't fall off my ears not sure yet

[Hayabusa85]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

The hunt for the origins of this "joke" would probably be more entertaining than the news.

[MrHT]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Here's a recent article which helps explain differing viewpoints on herd immunity.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-t...nity-20200630/

I'm not saying New York and other places have achieved herd immunity, but they are well on their way to it, and are far more protected as a result, then the South and West states of the U.S. getting hit right now.

I hope Worldometer is wrong again. It's showing over 1,000 new cases in NY today thus far.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by MrHT

I hope Worldometer is wrong again. It's showing over 1,000 new cases in NY today thus far.

They are. Interestingly, they're not even breaking down New York by county anymore, which would have shown that they've consistently had BS data for Suffolk county that doesn't exist. Trust the official data only. NYS shows there were 875 new cases from 69,945 tests, or 1.3% positive test rate.

https://forward.ny.gov/percentage-po...gion-dashboard

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by Cinema84

Sorry if this sounds silly but has anyone done any studies on the possible long-term effects of constantly sanitizing your hands? Lol. All that strong Ethanol/alcohol has to have some kind of adverse effect. I don't know about anyone else but I smear Purell (and other sanitizing products) on my hands about a dozen times a day minimum. I even purchased a huge container of Isopropyl alcohol from Amazon but I'm afraid to use it because it says Industrial grade. Am I overdoing this?

Maybe. Are you using this much because you're at work?

There's no need to use that much sanitizer that often unless you're outside and don't have immediate access to a sink and soap, like coming directly from the grocery store, it's a good idea to use a bit of hand sanitizer just before you enter your car. Or if you're hopping from store to store (try to minimize this), use sanitizer between stores. If you're at work that's trickier because you can't go use the bathroom sink every time you touch something.

But at home, there's zero reason to do this. Studies have proven without doubt that washing your hands with plain old hand soap is all you need to clean your hands of the virus if it's indeed on your hands. The soap breaks down the molecular structure of the virus so that it easily rinses off with water. That's why you're supposed to wash your hands for a full 20 seconds - to give the soap enough time to break it down. Any hand soap will do - I use either foaming or regular liquid soap. Even liquid dish soap should work I'd imagine. Wash good for 20 seconds then rinse, and you're fine. Do this whenever you're worried you just touched something that may have been infected (like an apartment outside door handle). Many hand soaps also have moisturizers to help with dryness, or us lotion afterwards if your hands are getting too dry. The humid summer air will help with that.

And anti-bacterial soap is useless for this and doesn't add any extra effectiveness - COVID-19 is a virus, not a bacteria.

[Penton-Man]

welp, I guess some people didn’t like hearing about BBC Radio4’s interview with Anthony Fauci today -
https://twitter.com/justinhendrix/st...99482138501122

[ay221]

You can use a product like the kooty key. Use it to open most commercial style doors and use it for keypad and such. Spray it with lysol after a few uses.

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by ay221

You can use a product like the kooty key. Use it to open most commercial style doors and use it for keypad and such. Spray it with lysol after a few uses.

I'd use it regularly, only to use the word "Kooty."

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by veritas

Shut downs by county seem pretty pointless to me honestly. If for example they find out restaurants are causing the surge in a county and they close the restaurants down but the county 20 miles way is open people will just go one county over. In the long run these very small shutdowns will just spread corona virus. To really have effective quarantines you need to either enforce travel restrictions in and out of areas (pretty impossible in the us) or you need the quarantines to be over large enough sections that its at least the majority of people won't leave the quarantine generally.

In the US they would have to do like they do in China if they want to slow down the spreading. It just won't happen; you know it, I know it, they know it, we all know it.

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

She wrote it a week ago.

Last month (June 5) on Facebook (could be even from before* that, and from someone else than 'Broke' Miller).

Here's another one ...

"I always knock on the fridge door before I open it...just in case there's a salad dressing."

"I'm so desperate for hockey I turned on the fireplace just to boo the Flames!"

"I used to wonder what it would be like to be able to read people's minds. Then I got a Facebook account and now I'm over it."

_____

Did someone mention 209,000 new cases today (global). ...Beats yesterday's record.
Over 5,000 departed (5,155 today global). Mexico: 30,000 if not tomorrow Saturday.
_____

* Edit (yes it is, from May 15): https://www.barrypopik.com/index.php...avirus_terms1/
They are in alphabetic order; just scroll down to "This is the first year ..."

[whiteberry]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

The hunt for the origins of this "joke" would probably be more entertaining than the news.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

Bruce, how is herd immunity working in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia ...? They are into straight and radical and definitive lockdowns in most Asian countries. In North American culture it simply doesn't work. And South America still don't believe we're living in a pandemic.

• Australia had few cases recently (73), they are keeping a close watch on it. Overall Australia is doing excellent ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rn-to-lockdown


• New Zealand ... https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...id-19-outbreak

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

Exactly. The Northeast most certainly did *NOT* slow down because of herd immunity.

Neither of you understood what Bruce said. There is a very good chance NY DID slow down because of HIT% just as Stockholm has. The only difference was, Stockholm intended to do it.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Todd Tomorrow

There is no country in Europe which is getting close to herd immunity because that would take years to achieve and risk hundreds of thousands of deaths. I live in Germany, we are doing relatively well because the country went into lockdown early and adopted measures like masks and social distancing very thoroughly, which we are still keeping up. Overall the number of people who got infected is far too low to achieve anywhere close to heard immunity. Infection rates in Germany have gone way down due to the measures we adopted. Not even the European countries which got hit early and badly like Italy and Spain are anywhere near achieving a level of immunity of 60%, where we can start to talk about herd immunity.

Incorrect, herd immunity may not be anywhere near 60%. It may be 15-20%.

[LordoftheRings]

I've read what Bruce said. I just replied from another point of view, the Asian way.
• https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=10809

This virus is so new that nobody knows exactly what it does long term and what it will do in the future.
A vaccine seems like the best way out and it won't happen for a while.

Just something couple months old ... herd immunity ...
¤ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/o...-immunity.html

Another one ...
¤ https://www.discovermagazine.com/hea...ainst-covid-19

The cost (lives) was high in New York, New Jersey, Italy, Spain, UK, France, ... now it's down big time.
I just don't know this Fall, this Winter, next Spring ... in those same areas.
This virus is just too unknown. Can it strikes again in New York, I just don't know.
How long immunity lasts, I just don't know.
There are too many unknowns...and the best examples we can learn from that we have are from Taiwan and other countries who still have it under control. And for how long, I just don't know.
I'm looking @ China again now with another big lockdown; they learned from the past.

That's a high price what New York and New Jersey paid. Only time will tell if nature of life in these two regions had an influence for the better or worse in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 months from today.

A vaccine ... or vaccines ...
Because nothing is for certain...immunity, time, antibodies, vaccine, ... too new this virus, too virulent, too invisible, too tricky, and not every country was prepared for it, and now it's no preparation but extreme measures to fight it so it doesn't kill too many by spreading too rapidly.

As a Canadian I'd like to see much more testing.
As a neighbor to the US I'd like to see better control and better obedience to the rules of health, science.
There's no doubt that masks help to slow down the spreading, to save lives, to save businesses.
This is something that all of us we contribute to more or less. More means wearing masks in most places in the US, less means objecting to masks and mass gathering (not good).

IMHO

[Waboman]

Originally Posted by ay221

You can use a product like the kooty key. Use it to open most commercial style doors and use it for keypad and such. Spray it with lysol after a few uses.

Been trying to get the wife’s kooty key for ages. She ain’t giving it up. Although wine helps. As does jewelry.

[DanTheMan]

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will indeed be returning this Saturday, July 4th on ESPN at 12pm EST, 9am PST.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mer...h-of-july/amp/

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by DanTheMan

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will indeed be returning this Saturday, July 4th on ESPN at 12pm EST, 9am PST.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mer...h-of-july/amp/

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

I've read what Bruce said. I just replied from another point of view, the Asian way.
• https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=10809

This virus is so new that nobody knows exactly what it does long term and what it will do in the future.
A vaccine seems like the best way out and it won't happen for a while.

Just something couple months old ... herd immunity ...
¤ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/o...-immunity.html

Another one ...
¤ https://www.discovermagazine.com/hea...ainst-covid-19

The cost (lives) was high in New York, New Jersey, Italy, Spain, UK, France, ... now it's down big time.
I just don't know this Fall, this Winter, next Spring ... in those same areas.
This virus is just too unknown. Can it strikes again in New York, I just don't know.
How long immunity lasts, I just don't know.
There are too many unknowns...and the best examples we can learn from that we have are from Taiwan and other countries who still have it under control. And for how long, I just don't know.
I'm looking @ China again now with another big lockdown; they learned from the past.

That's a high price what New York and New Jersey paid. Only time will tell if nature of life in these two regions had an influence for the better or worse in 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 months from today.

A vaccine ... or vaccines ...
Because nothing is for certain...immunity, time, antibodies, vaccine, ... too new this virus, too virulent, too invisible, too tricky, and not every country was prepared for it, and now it's no preparation but extreme measures to fight it so it doesn't kill too many by spreading too rapidly.

As a Canadian I'd like to see much more testing.
As a neighbor to the US I'd like to see better control and better obedience to the rules of health, science.
There's no doubt that masks help to slow down the spreading, to save lives, to save businesses.
This is something that all of us we contribute to more or less. More means wearing masks in most places in the US, less means objecting to masks and mass gathering (not good).

IMHO

There are many doubts! And those aren't the best examples at all, you're completely ignoring the difference in cultures and western cultures will not follow eastern cultures.

Slowing down spread doesn't save lives in Canada...so many Canadians seem to have forgotten what slowing the spread to save lives means, because somewhere along the way the meaning was perverted and most people just nodded their heads and didn't ask why.

We were given modelling that said 3-4% mortality rate and hospitals being decimated, that's what "stay inside, save lives, slow the spread" meant. The lives that would be saved? The ones that would go to hospital and not have a bed. That modelling turned out to be grossly flawed. The CDC best estimate at the moment is 0.26% IFR.

Current ICU occupancy (for beds equipped with ventilators) in Ontario from CVD patients? 1.2%. EDIT - sorry, it's dropped again...it's been dropping every day despite lots of protests in Toronto, gatherings in parks and beaches people are up in arms about, no masking mandates in most places, it's now at 0.9% (26 patients on ventilators out of 2811 beds) - https://covid-19.ontario.ca/

A few stumbling blocks appeared along the way suggesting herd immunity wasn't the right idea, chiefly a) we don't get immunity and b) too many people would die to reach 70%.

As more and more science has arrived we can see the stories from Singapore about being infected again were due to contaminated/false tests. HIT may be massively lower than 70%. Hospitals aren't being decimated from CVD. We have hospitals now back up to a high capacity because of surgeries finally resuming, hospitals are businesses and they don't make money sitting at 1.2% occupancy.

Masking doesn't work in western countries, we don't wear masks properly. The evidence for masking is of "low certainty" according to last months review of 39 studies on masking by The Lancet. We don't mandate policy off low certainty evidence if "science" and not politics is leading the way. We have other methods with moderate to high certainty evidence like hand washing and distancing if we want to slow the spread, yet we're not mandating those first? Seems backwards. We are seeing poor masking etiquette on a wide scale. Everywhere you look you'll see people with poor masking etiquette that you do NOT see in China or Japan. They know how to use masks.

Here in the west? Let's denigrate people who want to discuss the science and call them pu**ies as Tom Hanks so wisely did yesterday. Let's not bother attempting any sort of education on proper masking guidance at the mainstream media level, at every subway entrance, at every mall entrance, in newspapers, etc., let's just mandate it and ignore the body of science we have on what the negative effects might be and just hope for the best? That's not science.

In Canada, we have more class.

From PHAC - DON’T JUDGE OTHERS FOR NOT WEARING A MASK.
Kindness is important as some people may not be able to wear a mask or face covering

https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/hc...overing-en.pdf

That's the Canada I know. Recommendations and education work far better than mandates.

[bruceames]

Cases are up 38% from last week, which coincidentally is the same amount it was up last week from the week before. Now at 47,243. Up from 34,158 last week (through Thursday) and 24,805 two weeks ago. Cases have nearly doubled in two weeks.




Deaths continue to decline, down 7.4% from last week. But again deaths a lagging indicator, based on cases around 3 weeks ago (only at 21,416). Deaths will probably start to go up during the next week, but it might stay flat. Then it will certainly go up after that (although perhaps not rising as fast as cases have).



last weeks charts
https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...5#post17789495