Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Hatter

I want whatever drugs Dr. Tam and co.are taking to come up with irresponsible fear mongering figures of potentially reaching 60000 daily cases in the country of Canada. That's a 12-15x multiplier based on current record days.

Those are models; she used that one, just recently released ... middle graph, orange line ^ (worst case scenario) ...

20201122_012659.jpg

She said right now with the grey <maintain>, we are on line for between 15,000 and 32,000 cases a day.
She's an expert, she follows the science.

[LordoftheRings]

Models (various forecast) in the USA ...

• https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...d-3728f392f819

• https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...asting-us.html

[Hatter]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

Those are models; she used that one, just recently released ... middle graph, orange line (worst case scenario) ...

It's still highly irresponsible. That orange line is still quite a reach even if all measures were lifted and things went back to normal. No need to include it at all and needlessly worry people. The grey line is equally absurd.

[LordoftheRings]

I agree; there's just no way that Canada is going to get up to 60,000+ cases a day by the end of December...that'll be the day. Canadians are responsible people, they know what to do, mask up.
But 22,000 cases a day by that time; that I think we might get.

I don't make those models, the expert Canadians scientists do.
I remember not that long ago the US was averaging roughly 40,000 new cases a day. They just hit a record high of 204,000+. In the last week it is roughly between 160,000 and 200,000 a day, no?

20201122_163147.jpg

Anyway it is what it is.

[Hatter]

More people live in California alone versus all of Canada so can't really compare..

[LordoftheRings]

• https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN28000Q

• https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...given-to-trump

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Hatter

More people live in California alone versus all of Canada so can't really compare..

True; 37.9 million (Canada) vs 39.5 million (California).

It was just a mention on how exponentially numbers can go up, and fast.
In the US they went up from 40/45,000 average to 175,000 average now (roughly, last week).
See the graph I provided just above.

Would you like one for Canada? ...And California alone?

20201122_165736.jpg

20201122_165811.jpg

[LordoftheRings]

More stats for Canada, from Canada ... released November 17, and Nov. 14
And those graphs I provided earlier are the ones based on what our Health expert just said couple days ago, from that same Canadian pdf file ...

20201122_012217.jpg

20201122_012333.jpg

20201122_012505.jpg

20201122_012553.jpg

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by Hatter

I want whatever drugs Dr. Tam and co.are taking to come up with irresponsible fear mongering figures of potentially reaching 60000 daily cases in the country of Canada. That's a 12-15x multiplier based on current record days.

Exponential vs Linear

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by Hatter

It's still highly irresponsible. That orange line is still quite a reach even if all measures were lifted and things went back to normal. No need to include it at all and needlessly worry people. The grey line is equally absurd.

Well we wouldn't want to worry people into possible changing their irresponsible behaviour now would we.

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by LordoftheRings

True; 37.9 million (Canada) vs 39.5 million (California).

It was just a mention on how exponentially numbers can go up, and fast.
In the US they went up from 40/45,000 average to 175,000 average now (roughly, last week).
See the graph I provided just above.

Would you like one for Canada? ...And California alone?

Attachment 251313

Attachment 251314

I'd suspect any and all graphs you came up with for him would be a wasted effort on your part...

[LordoftheRings]

Originally Posted by Pondosinatra

Well we wouldn't want to worry people into possible changing their irresponsible behaviour now would we.

Touché!

* It is what it is; a modelling projection. Scientists use them during pandemics.
It's like a guide for preventive measures. We hope (pray) for the best, and prepare for the worse. ...Mask up, stay safe.

Our Canadian Health expert put it honestly and straight forward when she mentioned that < maintain > grey area, and with worse case scenario. She's doing . . . her job.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox_x...ature=youtu.be

[shane01]

Nothing but bad news the past few days. Hope things get better. No one is very happy right now.

I absolutely believe the daily increases numbers. My aunt and uncle had COVID-19 (recovered) thanks to my uncle going into work, where it spread, and giving it to my aunt. This is the closest it’s gotten to me this year, in terms of people I know contracting the virus.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

like with Eli Lilly's bamlanivimab –

Regeneron monoclonals Casirivimab and imdevimab now (as of yesterday) received FDA EUA.

If you, your parents or grandparents develop mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19, but do not need to be hospitalized nor need O2 and fit one or more of the criteria for being at high risk -
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...tment-covid-19
https://www.fda.gov/media/143894/download

I would strongly recommend you go on record and ask the ER physician about Eli Lilly’s or Regeneron’s monoclonals and consider the infusion. Remember there is a very narrow window as to them being effective so one can’t procrastinate. This could be a life saving measure until we get the vaccines.

follow-up from ^ yesterday, with the casirivimab + imdevimab emergency use authorization news being reported this evening on national news outlets like so –

COVID-19 vaccine could be available by December - YouTube

and a reminder as to what’s under the media radar and hopefully also comes to the same fruition (I'm thinking it will) - https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...r#post18268460

[Chaotic]

My whole family has gotten it or is getting it. My uncle (in another state) just got it from his son. Makes me wonder if I had it & didnt know. Since I'm extremely vulnerable, i should've gotten it by now.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by shane01

Nothing but bad news the past few days.

Two well proportioned SoCal hotties last night caught on video breaking curfew by dining out after 10 PM in my neighborhood –

[Show spoiler]

at least they were 6 ft. apart and masked

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by ctujackbauer

OC Register - Toilet paper runs short again as hoarding resumes amid coronavirus spike

This was so much fun the last time, who's ready to do it again?

Maybe if they'd stop posting fake stories, it wouldn't become a self-prophesy.

I saw another article about the "upcoming shortage" again today - the image they posted of bare shelves was originally posted by the New York Times back in April - I did a reverse image search which proved it! Yup, they just copied over a photo from an article back in April, with the intention to mislead us to thinking that is a fresh photo taken recently. Scummy reporting.

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

There's also -
Did you wear it properly, pretty sure a disturbing percentage of the population do not.
If you wear disposables, do you switch them frequently enough?
If you wear reusables, do you wash them every time you use them?
Circling back around to the first one because even in the workplace so many people use them incorrectly multiple times in a shift.
Are you wearing gaiters or bandanas, which I'm pretty sure don't actually protect anyone.
Also slightly related, are you still socially distancing as much as possible?
These are the things the people want to know.

There were articles a while back that showed that gaiters do indeed offer some protection, roughly equivalent to homemade masks, depending on materials. Those early bogus reports that claimed gaiters were useless was unfortunate because any protection people wear is better than nothing. Discouraging people from wearing something is a bad idea. But lots of knee-jerk reactions to those earlier articles meant many stores banning them.

[sfmarine]

Originally Posted by mar3o

There were articles a while back that showed that gaiters do indeed offer some protection, roughly equivalent to homemade masks, depending on materials. Those early bogus reports that claimed gaiters were useless was unfortunate because any protection people wear is better than nothing. Discouraging people from wearing something is a bad idea. But lots of knee-jerk reactions to those earlier articles meant many stores banning them.

I wear a gaiter which I prefer because it's more comfortable and I can always have it around my neck. Only place I was not permitted was the Apple store of all places. They do not allow gaiters. Disney World banned them as well. My guess is because they can fall down. Mine never fall down and that article you referenced did prove that they are effective so I'll continue to wear them.

[ctujackbauer]

Originally Posted by mar3o

Maybe if they'd stop posting fake stories, it wouldn't become a self-prophesy.

I saw another article about the "upcoming shortage" again today - the image they posted of bare shelves was originally posted by the New York Times back in April - I did a reverse image search which proved it! Yup, they just copied over a photo from an article back in April, with the intention to mislead us to thinking that is a fresh photo taken recently. Scummy reporting.

It's not a fake story here. Every Costco in the area has supply limits and is out of toilet paper, paper towels, bottled water, and disinfectant wipes. Grocery stores like Ralph's are like that too. You can google for Los Angeles grocery shortages and see other sources.

Also, they're just reporting on what's happened already - Costco and Ralph's were out of toilet paper about a week before the OC Register article.