Paramount/DreamWorks fallout... a primal scream therapy thread for Blu-ray fans

[cartier]

Originally Posted by moweeis

naah, they are both formats. We just got the first title exclusive as it's a sony title his films are split among the companies =)

Yes, but he was able to stop Universal from releasing his movies on HD-DVD. My understanding is he retains control for the distribution of all movies he has directed.

What I am wondering is can he say to Paramount, you can release Indiana Jones, Saving Private Ryan etc but only on Blu-ray. From this point there are a few possibilities.

1) Paramount says okay blu exclusive
2) Paramount says bring it out on HD-DVD too
2a) Spielberg says okay, they come out on Blu-ray and HD-DVD (I think this is unlikely)
2b) Spielberg says no, and we don't see it in any HD format
2c) Paramount tells the HD-DVD group "we tried", and it will be an exclusive Blu-ray title.

[EricJ]

Well, now that we're past the explanations, let's bring the thread up to current speed:
Have there been any rumblings from the DOJ, SEC, or whoever else is in charge of anti-trust, now that Katzenberg sang like a canary to the NYT, and the story's hit the mainstream WSJ headlines?

I know wheels of investigation grind slowly (qv. that LG player), but the news always likes a good anti-MS scandal, you think we would have heard one by now.

[GarettP]

We can only hope these wheels are already turning, it would be dumb to not look into the anit-trust part of this.

[jtconnolly]

Josh, you heard of anything?

[WickyWoo]

The problem is that by the time it actually hits trial any damage will have been done long ago

[jtconnolly]

But they can hault production if there is some evidence, right?

[GetSmart]

Does anyone here remember the DVD Format war that took place a decade ago???? This same thing happened, the EU didn't get involved neither did the Federal Government there is no history for any kind of government action in this case.

This isn't the first optical format war.

I understand being upset but try to be smart about it at the same time.

[jtconnolly]

Your'e right, but we also did not have the money we do today either, Money talks and maybe the past war will convince Sony and the BDA to ask the matter to be looked into.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by GetSmart

Does anyone here remember the DVD Format war that took place a decade ago???? This same thing happened, the EU didn't get involved neither did the Federal Government there is no history for any kind of government action in this case.

This isn't the first optical format war.

I understand being upset but try to be smart about it at the same time.

MS has been convicted for similar practices since that time so there is a history.. and MS are involved with HD-DVD as well.

Of course the U.S. gov't did nothing substantial to punish them - which is the real issue anyway.

The EU is a different kettle of fish and has become far more aggressive in the last decade over MS practices in the software industry. It would most likely come from them.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by jtconnolly

Your'e right, but we also did not have the money we do today either, Money talks and maybe the past war will convince Sony and the BDA to ask the matter to be looked into.

Sony would be fools not to:
Even if it is "playing dirty", when you can investigate the competition with Probable Cause, that's playing dirty and staying CLEAN.

(And that's not even mentioning the Sweet, Sweet Revenge factor, for all those imaginary antitrust harrassments MS tried to sic on Sony...)

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by grognard66

The importance of hitting the $199 "magic number" cannot be overstated as every major electronic consumer device realizes the vast majority of its sales after hitting that number.

But, they're not usually faced with being only use it for half the purpose, right? If a cool TV hits $199, would people rush out if it only plays 1/2 the channels available?

The importance of the lack of full studio support FOR EITHER HDM FORMAT cannot be overstated.

The rules of thumb only apply if there are not other mitigating circumstances.

[WickyWoo]

Does anyone here remember the DVD Format war that took place a decade ago???? This same thing happened, the EU didn't get involved neither did the Federal Government there is no history for any kind of government action in this case.

It really wasn't a format war. It was Open DVD vs a Pay Per View format that no one liked

In this case we're dealing with 2, essentially identical (as long as the bits are there) products that are incompatible. I don't think DIVX ever even came out outside the US, so the EU wouldn't get involved.

Either way, MS pretty much just hung their payola thing against the BDA

[WickyWoo]

Even Ramadan lets you eat after sundown

The Indy movies will be on Blu, so there is no reason to boycott it

In fact it's BETTER, because after that long Blu drought, if Paramount has not de-exclusived they'll see the numbers they've been missing

[Chris Gerhard]

It looks to me like Paramount received a payment to continue releasing titles on HD DVD. Paramount can show no profits were being made from either format, and the HD DVD group offered the payments and incentives and Paramount accepted and continues to release HD DVD titles. If there is an agreement that states Paramount is being paid by HD DVD to drop out of the Blu-ray side, then I agree there may be something worth investigating. Paramount can't be expected to continue supporting Blu-ray with no profits being made, so there was certainly no criminal act by anybody because that simple business decision was made. Without a written agreement indicating wrong doing, I sure can't see how anything looks inappropriate on the surface. I sure don't like it, but I am not calling for a criminal investigation.

Chris

[stockstar1138]

The EU absoutley hates MS, its already looking into BD with Disney and Fox, so why not look at HD DVD with MS, Uni, and Para. Heres the biggy. If the EU does find anything, even if the damage is already done to BD, its going to cost MS a lot, straight out of the Home Entertainment budget. With another huge blow to that part of MS, good chance we wont be seeing ps3....oops i meant xbox 720 with HDMI 1.3, Bluetooth, Cell Processor, and Wifi out of MS as coporate pressure will just be to strong to drop the deparatment (Zune, XBOX, HD DVD, ETC) and how will they do digital dl without an xbox. i don't think its a coincidence we have yet to see anytype of handheld or any rumors of a new xbox, where krazy ken already basically confirmed ps4.

[Gamma_Winstead]

I will be in line at midnight for Indy 4 so I guess i will not be boycotting it!

[cartier]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Even Ramadan lets you eat after sundown

The Indy movies will be on Blu, so there is no reason to boycott it

In fact it's BETTER, because after that long Blu drought, if Paramount has not de-exclusived they'll see the numbers they've been missing

I have no intention of boycotting it I was just wondering if others advocating the boycott would and if so how do they justify it.

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

The importance of the lack of full studio support FOR EITHER HDM FORMAT cannot be overstated.

The rules of thumb only apply if there are not other mitigating circumstances.

Agree.. but that's why it ONLY works in the PS3's/BD's "favour" IMO. There is now a large audience ready to be wooed..HD-DVD will take years to get there now.

I'm not going to say it as this point ... but I'm pretty sure I know where certain folks are going and had planned to shoot for from the very start. If it plays out differently I'll post my thoughts .. but for now I'm not saying.

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by grognard66

Interesting post, Canada. I think you may have inadvertently explained Paramounts and Warner Brothers rationale for their past comments though. The problem Blu-Ray is having is that game devices historically have represented a trivial percentage of movie playing devices. The fact that there are so many more PS3's out there than stand-alone HD-DVD's proves that fact as Blu-Ray should be outselling HD-DVD movies by at least 4 to 1 if people viewed PS3's as movie devices.

You are making the same mistakes as the studio's are. First, to look at the PS3 as merely a game machine is a huge mistake. Its an entertainment center which happens to include gaming. Gaming machines don't play SACD's, don't upconvert DVD's, doesn't upsample CD's, and certainly wouldn't play HD discs. The basic XBOX is a gaming machine.

The PS3 has taken conventional wisdom and flipped it on its ear. If you don't adjust to that reality, you will sadly underestimate the strength of a 800lb gorrilla in the room.

Secondly you are taking worldwide sales of the PS3, and attaching US sales of software to it. We have yet to see worldwide sales of software applied to worldwide sales of hardware. If you took US hardware and applied it to US sales, the attachment rate goes up.

The attach rate is so low precisely because PS3's are game machines that happen to play movies and not vice versa - and most people who buy a PS3 bought it to play games primarily. The CD format just celebrated it's 25 year anniversary which helps put things in perspective. Studios are not looking at the next few years but the next 20+ years. In that context, PS3 sales will represent an insignificant number of total movie playing devices.

See above on the attachment issue. You cannot assume these days that the majority of people are buying the PS3 for gaming only. That may have been the case 5-10 years ago, but this is a new ball game. I don't play games, I will NEVER play a game, but I own the PS3 for its HD and SACD playback. I have started buying SACD's because of my PS3. Many early adopters bought the PS3 because it was the cheapest way into blu-ray(alot of folks fit in this catagory.

Studios do not look 20 years ahead. It is impossible to know what will happen, or what will exist 20 years from now. 20 years ago we were knee deep into VHS, and there was absolutely no talk of HD on disc, DVD, SACD, DVD-A, DolbyTHD or Dts MA. Twenty years later, they are all here, and some of these technologies are pretty mature.

Studios understand that the average game device only has a 5-6 year life cycle and that early Blu-Ray movie results are skewed as early PS3 adopters look for things to do with their units until the game catalog matures - at which point they'll spend more time playing games on PS3 than watching movies.

Studio's have no experience measuring the impact of entertainment centers. This is a new dirt. Studio's look at the cost of producing and marketing a disc vs profit from sales. Since the first week in January, bluray has outsold HD DVD 2-1 here in the states. Currently PS3 has a 3-1 hardware advantage. A 3-1 hardware advantage combined with a 2-1 sales advantage is something the studios are looking hard at. Currently both the lower cost Panasonic and Sony players are selling better at some stores than the HD DVD A2. At my local BB where a good friend of mine manages tells me he cannot keep the lower cost Sony bluray player in stock more than a couple days. These are trends the studio is looking at.

It is worth noting that stand-alone HD-DVD players outsell stand-alone Blu-Ray players by 50% and the continued price difference between the formats will likely see that ratio maintained (or even increase) this Holiday Season. The importance of hitting the $199 "magic number" cannot be overstated as every major electronic consumer device realizes the vast majority of its sales after hitting that number.

This format war is far from over..

That 50% number was pre lower cost bluray players. We have not gotten any updated numbers since these figures were released. $199 is not a hard figure, it could be any figure around that. But this is all depends on FULL support from the CE and studios. HD DVD is very close to the price, but has no additional support studio wise as Paramount was serving them already. In this condition $199 might not be the end all for either format. Too many conditions are different to apply that HD DVD driven model to either format.

The war is over when one cries uncle. Toshiba may never cry uncle, and Bluray can still be the consumers choice.

[stockstar1138]

I am absoultely disgusted with the amount of Fear from this forum. Lets put ourselves in MS's shoes. They are trying to make a deal to prolong the war. The best way to do that is to get MORE support for HD DVD, not LESS for blu-ray. So who are they going to target first? Disney and Fox and Lionsgate. Obviously they are still gung-ho blu due to constant releases from them til 08. So MS failed and failed and failed! Next your gong to go after the two neutral studios, most likely with the biggest one, Warner, first. Warner didn't stop blu-ray production, so it looks once again like MS failed. Desperate to get a studio to change they offered a butt load of money to their last hope: paramount and they accepted. now given paramount has put out less than 10% of all things blu, its the smallest blow we could have suffered. Now if WB already turned down MS once why would MS come back? well, one answer could be more money, but lets evaluate that further. Where from MS is this money coming from, the Home Entertainment Division. what has neve posted a profit at MS: the home entertainment division. now after years of pleas to the MS board about how it would be profitable and has failed MS every quarter, would the board apporve 400 million dollars of payments to movie studios for a format that the corporation has stated will fail! remember the Entertainemt Division is trying to keep the XBOX alive, the catalyst of its plans to offer DL content, its stalled the war enough with uni and paramount, XBOX officialy fell into 2nd place today as the Wii overtook it, and the PS3 inched even closer. without XBOX, DL content is nothing, XBOX needs exclusive games more than anything to keep some momentum gog, so in other words look for MGS IV or FFXIII to go to the 360 before Warner goes to HD DVD. and also remember the BDA is much more powerful than MS, so any offer will be countered.