Paramount/DreamWorks fallout... a primal scream therapy thread for Blu-ray fans

[nomad2010]

does anyone find it odd that Blu-Ray has superior specs, superior sales, and who knows how many PS3's out there but yet even though Blu-Ray is outselling HD-DVD at rates of 3 to 1 now, why would any company side with HD-DVD?

Anyone with common sense would side with the one that is selling better and the one with the better specs. So why is there even a war?

[JTK]

Originally Posted by nomad2010

does anyone find it odd that Blu-Ray has superior specs, superior sales, and who knows how many PS3's out there but yet even though they are outselling Blu-Ray at rates of 3 to 1 now that any company would side with HD-DVD?

Anyone with common sense would side with the one that is selling better and the one with the better specs. So why is there even a war?

Great post!

Answer to your question: Money talks and bull@#$% walks, despite all the logic and common sense facts you just cited.

When you can pay off a studio with a $150 million in cash and incentives...it's amazing what can happen.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by nomad2010

does anyone find it odd that Blu-Ray has superior specs, superior sales, and who knows how many PS3's out there but yet even though they are outselling Blu-Ray at rates of 3 to 1 now that any company would side with HD-DVD?

Anyone with common sense would side with the one that is selling better and the one with the better specs. So why is there even a war?

Tight pocketbooks, ego, arrogance, and an unwillingness to take risks by the BDA have attributed to them allowing HDDVD to be in the game this long.

[tron3]

You never know how this will pan out. Maybe after 18 months Paramount will say, "Well, we got our money to support HD-DVD. Toshiba's technology lived a little longer and helped ease the losing battle. Time to transition and abandon HD-DUD once and for all." This might just be a ploy to keep Toshiba from going under too quickly.

Sony and company should approach Paramount and say, "Listen, after your agreement with MS is over, we are willing to buy you guys back to blu-ray."

[Scorxpion]

MONEY TALKS BABY

we are facing it in our life

if you have money you have power

[Blu Titan]

I agree with you, but it is what it is my friend. The Blu will win, no doubt.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Scorxpion

MONEY TALKS BABY

we are facing it in our life

if you have money you have power

The Lookout!

[Proteus]

This is America.

America loves drama.

The rest of the world has already chosen Blu-ray. Done, signed, sealed and delivered.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Proteus

This is America.

America loves drama.

....

Here is some drama for you. Paramount jumping up and down on Oprah's couch screaming, "I'm in love with Bill Gates.... I'm in love with Bill Gates..."

Sorry, there is no vomiting emote.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Proteus

This is America.

America loves drama.

The rest of the world has already chosen Blu-ray. Done, signed, sealed and delivered.

^^ This is an excellent point.

We all forget about what's going on outside of the U.S. with this thing...

I'll say it again: The EU sure has MS's number, don't they?

[Scorxpion]

Originally Posted by BTBuck1

The Lookout!

correct you catch it BRAVO

i would like to add a comment to the thread title yes this WAR makes sense because i want my favourite format called Blu-Ray to win

i'm feeling it BD is the superior format and not the other one and hopefully not always money can buy it

[atdm71]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Cheaper players will be coming. But, I'll point out that Blu-ray standalones have been selling better than HD DVD for over a month now, despite being more expensive. This is why the Paramount thing happened.

Blu-ray:

Leader in disc sales
Leader in player sales
Leader in quality
Leader in disc selection
Leader in new releases
Leader in blockblusters
Leader in exclusive studio box office
Leader in capacity
Leader in bandwidth

Leader in classy posters on forums

It seems to be game over now, except for a staggering ignorance being shown by some studios and many zealots.

Gary

Leader in security (?)
And by leader in quality, you could sub-categorize that one by adding, video; audio; and the physical asset itself; the silky smooth protective coating which simply oozes of greater manufacturing quality.

[richteer]

Originally Posted by nomad2010

does anyone find it odd that Blu-Ray has superior specs, superior sales, and who knows how many PS3's out there but yet even though Blu-Ray is outselling HD-DVD at rates of 3 to 1 now, why would any company side with HD-DVD?

Anyone with common sense would side with the one that is selling better and the one with the better specs. So why is there even a war?

Well, it wasn't always like it is now. Most of last year, HD DVD had a commanding lead, and Blu-ray's launch was less than auspicious. To that, add the fact that various studios aligned the way they did (when in all honesty, the next hi def medium was anyone's guess), and you have the makings of the war.

Things started swinging into Blu-ray's favour when the PS3 was launched last November, and Blu-ray has built up a commanding lead all of 2007: Blu-ray discs are outselling HD DVD discs by at least 2:1, Blu-ray had 7/8 studio support, we had Blockbuster, Target, and BJ's announce their Blu preference.

Universal was the sole hold out, presumably because of some exclusivity contract they signed some time ago.

So yeah, the writing was essentially on the wall for HD DVD. This upcoming Xmas would've probably seen a relatively huge upswing in Blu sales, and the war would've been all but over. With the war over, the entire movie and CE industries would be aligned behind one high def format, and mass-market adoption would have followed, resulting in big profits all round.

So M$ and/or the HD DVD group got nervous and didn't want the war to end (M$ stands to benefit the most from this), so they bribed Paramount and Dreamworks (who supported both formats) to drop support for Blu-ray by giving them $150m in "promotional consideration".

Yes, the war could've been over in a few months, but Paramount has ensured that it will last longer. :-(

How long will it be before J6P says "bollocks to this" and ignores high def movies completely (a la SACD and DVD-A)?

[Mr.Neutral]

It kind of makes sense. I mean consumers can't even agree on which is better and which should win, so why should we expect the companies who came up with the technologies to?

Since Toshiba and Sony couldn't agree on something, we ended up with 2 formats. So far, I think its been beneficial. I think its helped drive prices down.

And take me for example. Back in November, I wasn't about to spend what was needed for blu-ray. I bought the HD DVD add on. I loved it. Now I could watch even more movies in High Def! Well.. when I'd get new movies from netflix and they'd be in DVD, it would be a downer for me.. I think its really my love for HD DVD that got me in to blu-ray. I wanted it all. What was great is that HD DVD got me in at a low price and when blu-ray became more affordable, I was then able to jump in there too.

If it wasn't for the add on, I still might not own either.

And even today I still don't think having the war is bad. Both formats continue to grow. At the rate they are going, critical mass for studios will be reached at some point and they won't be able to ignore lost sales.. that's when things will change.

[sore_and_crucified]

The consumer is left to pick up the bill yet again though!!

[Mr.Neutral]

Originally Posted by sore_and_crucified

The consumer is left to pick up the bill yet again though!!

True. But its not necessarily a big bill. With the free movies, the cheapest HD DVD player is really no more expensive than a good upconverting DVD player.

And Blu-ray players are getting there quick too.

Just think - if there was no format war, we could still be looking at the PS3 as being the least expensive player and all standalones being hundreds more than it.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by Mr.Neutral

True. But its not necessarily a big bill. With the free movies, the cheapest HD DVD player is really no more expensive than a good upconverting DVD player.

And Blu-ray players are getting there quick too.

Just think - if there was no format war, we could still be looking at the PS3 as being the least expensive player and all standalones being hundreds more than it.

I disagree. The Market is suppossed to mature in a slower fashion. What this war is doing is dividing the Hometheater enthusiast, stripping the quality out of players prematurely and leaving the average consumer confused. When you complicate things, you alienate people. Those people do not need 2 choices. It is bad enough that HDDVD re-used the DVD name, which IMO infers to the avg. person that it will work with their HD upconvert DVD player.
Believe me, it is asked by me at BB atleast once a week. If it weren't for 2 formats, I believe we'd have even larger adoption than now.

2nd Gen players have never been built as poorly as what Toshiba is offering in their A2/A20...those are the most rinky dink slapped together POS i've seen save the Insignia & Lite-on DVD stuff you see at BB. IMO $300-400 is WAY too much for those. Toshiba/HDDVD isn't doing ANYONE any favors with these things.

[JimPullan]

Read this commentary from Hollywood-in-Hi-Def:

"Market Conditions & Logic Don't Coincide with Paramount/DreamWorks Abandoning Blu-ray


Paramount and DreamWorks have made their decision to drop Blu-ray and are now reportedly locked into that for the next 18 months, so there is no point in complaining about the situation since it clearly isn't going to change.

But it may still be instructive to point out marketplace facts that raise questions about the logic behind the decision because if it is found to be a decision based primarily on incentives offered rather than what is in the best interest of the consumer or what has the best chance of succeeding, then consumers should be aware of that before they get burned by a format that may be abandoned when their HD DVD contract ends in 18 months (if the format lasts that long) or before consumers unwittingly assist in creating a situation where no hi-def fomat becomes successful due to a prolonged battle that hands a complete victory to electronic video distribution.

* We've already pointed out DreamWorks chief Jeffrey Katzenberg's comments from less than 5 months ago (well after the first hi-def holiday selling season and the launch of PS3) saying he didn't believe hi-def discs would amount to more than a "niche business." Katzenberg has not made clear what has changed so dramatically in the marketplace in the last 5 months to make him do such a flip-flop in his thinking. In fact, Paramount officials said this week that industrywide hi-def sales numbers are so small at this stage that it's too early to draw any concrete conclusions, so what is Katzenberg basing his new perspective on?

* Paramount used the 50 GB space of Blu-ray on more than a half-dozen of their titles. That space is not available on HD DVD so they will need to use additional compression to get the same amount of content on a smaller capacity disc. Is that good for consumer? Even so, they could use that same compression technology to get even more content on the BD disc.

* Paramount says that part of their decision to go with HD DVD was the availability right now of advanced interactive features. That's an interesting priority to tout since Paramount has not exactly been on the forefront of introducing either cutting edge or a great number of interactive features in their HD DVD titles thus far, with a few exceptions including the PiP commentary on "M:I3." And they certainly haven't given Blu-ray interactivities much of a chance -- I don't recall Paramount including even the most basic BD-J interactive features on many of their BD titles. So, one has to wonder about how much that was truly a factor in the decision to abandon Blu-ray.

Yes, HD DVD offers more of the interactive features right now and all HD DVD players since Day One were built to be compatible with those features, unlike the first generation Blu-ray players. But Paramount knew that would be the case in 2005 when they made their decision and they have known that every step of the way since then. It's no different than the first generations of DVD players that were not fully compatible with the first software advancements. So why would a studio wait until this stage of the game, when all Blu-ray manufacturers will be forced to build all those extra features in players in less than 90 days, and just as two studios have already announced movies that will include those advanced interactive features beinning as early as this fall.
Could it be that the imminent introduction of those features on Blu-ray is that threatening to HD DVD?

* We've already pointed out that when Paramount made its decision to adopt Blu-ray in October 2005 they cited their data research on the format's "cost, manufacturability and copy protection solutions" and "the key advantage of including Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3."
I'll grant the fact that a lot can change in 22 months and that sales of the PS3 have not been nearly as strong as projected or hoped.
Nonetheless, 1.5 million PS3s in the U.S. alone is still 5 times as many HD DVD players in the market, even if only a percentage of PS3 owners are using them to play Blu-ray movies. Clearly the percentage of people watching Blu-ray movies on PS3 is large enough that Blu-ray movies are outselling HD DVD by 2:1, including Paramount's own movies. Even if the numbers are still relatively small, there are no numbers I have seen that show HD DVD movies selling stronger than Blu-ray or projecting HD DVD movies to sell stronger than Blu-ray in the near or distant future.

Here are the current disc sales statistics (UPDATED TO REMOVE SPECIFIC PROPRIETARY NUMBERS):

For the Week ending 8/5/07:

* Several hundred thousand overall hi-def units sold (BD & HD)
-- 62.2% Blu-ray units
-- 37.8% HD-DVD units

Top-selling titles week ending 8/5:

* "300" (Warner) several hundred thousand units -- 67% of overall units sold for the week (combined BD & HD)
-- 65% Blu-ray
-- 35% HD DVD

* "Hot Fuzz" (Universal) very low tens of thousands of units -- 3.8% of total units sold for the week (HD-DVD only)

* "Shooter" (Paramount) very low tens of thousands of units -- 3.3% of total units sold for the week (BD & HD combined)
-- 65% Blu-ray
-- 35% HD DVD

YTD 2007:
* Blu-ray sales: 67% (low single-digit millions)
* HD DVD sales: 33%

Inception-to-Date Overall Sales:
* Blu-ray sales: 60.3% (low single-digit millions)
* HD DVD sales: 39.7% (very low single-digit millions

Inception-to-Date Top overall hi-def disc sellers:
#1 - "300" Blu-ray: (low hundreds of thousands)
#2 - "Casino Royale" Blu-ray only: (very low hundreds of thousands)
#3 - "300" HD DVD: (less than 100,000)

Top 20 selling titles since inception:
* 15 are Blu-ray
* 5 are HD DVD

So how can any business executive look at these numbers and decide that the consumer prefers HD DVD or that the consumer would be better off with HD DVD only?
Even if you say these overall numbers are too small (and they are indeed relatively tiny), they are the only numbers out there to work with at this point. What data were Paramount/DreamWorks using to decide to abandon Blu-ray?
if you're going to pick one format over the other, why choose the one that is clearly getting trounced even in the small current market?
Why abandon Blu-ray at this point if not for reasons unrelated to existing market conditions?

It would be one thing if Paramount/DreamWorks had sided with a single format since the beginning, as has Universal, and felt compelled to maintain that position a little longer. But since the studio has been releasing on Blu-ray since the beginning, there is no obvious or stated reason that justifies abandoning Blu-ray at this stage of the game.

If Paramount/DreamwWorks really want to do what's best for the consumer, why make this move that further muddies the waters for consumers, many of whom have already weighed in this week to say they will now wait even longer before making a decision to jump into the hi-def disc market at all? Why couldn't the studios continue to support the HD DVD format and the lower hardware retail pricing while also continuing to offer their movies in Blu-ray? If they really believe HD DVD is best for consumers, then why not let consumers demonstrate that desire themselves by making that decision at the store rather than yanking away any option for them to buy a Paramount/DreamWorks movie on either format?
Maybe it's because consumers were already showing a clear preference to buy Paramount and Warner movies on Blu-ray when given a choice.

After 22 months, why not wait a few more months to see how the market plays out as Blu-ray introduces its full interactive features? If Blu-ray doesn't come through with those features as promised or the format experiences some major technical or unexpected cost issues, then a decision at that time would be reasonable.
How could a few extra months releasing on Blu-ray hurt HD DVD sales if that's what consumers really want anyway?
Maybe the backers of HD DVD believed they could not withstand another holiday selling season against Blu-ray and needed Paramount/DreamWorks to abandon Blu-ray in order to have any chance of survival."

[Bond007]

Word!!!

[cawgijoe]

The whole thing is extremely strange from a business perspective and very short-sighted. I don't think we have all the answers. There is something missing. It's actually a very cool mystery for a good investigative reporter to look into......