Because Blu-Ray will "obviously" be replaced rapidly by streaming only...

[Steedeel]

Worm, I see it in my own family. It is happening.

As for your comment about headphones, tech is advancing more rapidly these days. Things are simply not going to have 20 year life-cycles in future.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Worm, I see it in my own family. It is happening.

As for your comment about headphones, tech is advancing more rapidly these days. Things are simply not going to have 20 year life-cycles in future.

my point was that people have been listening to music with portable devices for DECADES. this is nothing new.

[Steedeel]

When I said headphones I was referring to high quality ones used with one's hi if system.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

When I said headphones I was referring to high quality ones used with one's hi if system.

when I was saying "headphones" I was referring to your original statement of how you can't believe that kids are listening to music on lossy audio tracks with cheap tinny head phones. I was saying that kids have been doing that for 20-30 years... music has always leaned toward the portable aspect. first it was bulky boomboxes on the shoulders, then it was walkmans, mini disc players, then discmans then mp3 players...

[Captain Kirk]

I don't know a single person who has abandoned a TV for a tablet or smartphone. I'm on an iPad with my HDTV in the background. I'm not going to watch a movie on a tiny screen without a legitimate reason such as traveling, exercising, lounging on the beach or something else that makes having a TV unrealistic. I sometimes watch a TV show on my computer while I'm working, but its more for mental distraction.

I have no interest in streaming since I have multiple TVs and setups and I just don't find it feasible. Plus, I enjoy special editions and cases. I still buy vinyl for the nostalgia and sound quality. Vinyl has even had a recent upswing in interest and sales.... When you think something's found its peak it hasn't.

[Steedeel]

Not abandoned now, near future. As more people adopt tablets. I certainly hope not though.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by wormraper

when I was saying "headphones" I was referring to your original statement of how you can't believe that kids are listening to music on lossy audio tracks with cheap tinny head phones. I was saying that kids have been doing that for 20-30 years... music has always leaned toward the portable aspect. first it was bulky boomboxes on the shoulders, then it was walkmans, mini disc players, then discmans then mp3 players...

Oh right. Sorry.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by vargo

The logical conclusion to your argument is that eventually the caps will be 0 MB. Enjoy the internet while you can folks.

not at all, if the guy was talking about a young kid that is growing would your response be "The logical conclusion to your argument is that eventually the kid will be 10' tall"

or if it was about someone on a diet that is losing weight "The logical conclusion to your argument is that eventually the person will weigh 0 lbs"


even if he did mean that an ISP account will come with 0GB and it is all usage. why would that necessarily be such an impossible idea? When I went to the bar the other day, they expected me to pay for every beer I ordered and when I filled up my car for as much gas as I wanted, and some highways do charge on how many miles you travel on them. Why can't , for example, an ISP charge 10$ a month plus 5$ for each 10GB you use (just to make an example?) aren't most stuff in this world usage based and not fixed cost?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by vargo

The average broadband speed in the US gets faster every year (currently 6.6Mbps). More people have access to high-speed internet (10Mbps) every year (currently 16% of the country). More people get internet access full-stop every year.

I agree, but you are forgetting the other side of the coin. Like you said, a long time ago it was B&W, today we watch 3d 1080p, 4k should be out soon. You are forgetting that A/V is not fixed either. In 1997 when DVD came out the disks were 4.7GB, by 2005 none of the films came out on SL DVD but they were all DL and 8.5GB, in 2006 we had BD and for the first few months it was 25GB,. now more or less every film is on a BD 50. BD started off with 1080p, and they upped the BW in order to be able to do BD3D. We are now waiting for 4K which will need more BW and capacity.


like you say 6.6Mbps is the norm now (I will take your word for it) and 16% have 10mbps. The question is how far (in years) are we away from the 100 mbps needed to approximate streaming BD quality? And are we likely to still be happy with 100 mbps and BD quality or will we want 3D UHD (or more by then) and the BW it requires? Also talking about one video is nice, but do you live alone? has it never happened that one person will want to watch something while someone else might want to watch something else or surf the web? So what is necessary for one stream is not enough if it is "the future"

To say that broadband speeds will prevent streaming from taking over is akin to someone in 2006 saying Bluray would never catch on because there arent enough factories to replicate the discs.

Only one problem with this analogy. If a replication plant sees demand for BD there is an incentive to add replication lines since the studio is charged on the number of disks replicated. So the more BDs replicated the more $$$ the plant makes and that pays for the extra lines. But in this case, the more films you get from Apple the more money Apple makes, the more films you get from Vudu the more they make and the more people that use Netflix the more Netflix makes. .... Neither you nor these companies pay for any investment the telcos need to do in the infrastructure. So the example fails sionce you don’t want to pay for each GB you DL but you want the benefit from the higher capacity.

Bandwidth caps are a short term response to inadequate infrastructure. But in the medium to long-term infrastructure upgrades to meet demand. The internet is a vital part of any country's infrastructure so its very short-sighted to look at it like some immovable obstacle.

Agree in most part. What you are forgetting is that if the infrastructure is not there and we need caps now , when, let’s face it, the digital video market is smaller than niche and the quality beyond pathetic. How can it be short term when the idea is that at some point everyone will be watching high quality video over the internet. These caps will be here for a long time and more and more places will add them as demand grows. What you are forgetting is that there are two lines moving, infrastructure and A/V when one moves so does the other. You talked about more people having faster speed and Netflix counters with a new 3D and SHD option which will need more BW. This will be a tug of war for a long time so I don't see caps going away any time soon.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by The_Donster

Whether physical media people like it or not, streaming is here.

yup, have not seen anyone argue that, we all agree it is here. The issue is some people think pohysical media won't be here soon. And that is what does not make sense. If I miss a show and it did not get PVRed I use streaming. But when I want to sit down and watch a film and relax then I go with the BD option.

Is it up to the quality than you can get on a BD? As others have pointed out, depends on your internet provider.

I have tried several streaming options, can you tell me which one you use and has BD quality? the only one I know that claims that soon they will have BD quality for DL (not streaming) is Kaleidascape, nothing else I tried even comes close to BD quality, now if you said DVD quality, then I would be in agreement with you.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Not abandoned now, near future. As more people adopt tablets.

but why? if they have not abandoned it yet why will it be in the future? will tablets in the future come with a built in LED projector that can make a 10' image? If a person today watches a youtube video by himself on a tablet but watches on TV at other times, why would that change? Will the situations (for example wanting to hang around with friends) not exist in the future? Everyone I know has adopted smart phones and tablets, they are good for their jobs, but they suck if, for example, you want to have a super bowl party. They suck if you have a family get together, they suck if you don't want to hold through the hole movie a small display near your eyes and you would rather just sit and relax and you can because you are at home. I don't know if the "bedroom" TV will be gone sooon. But BR TVs have only been a factor for maybe around 30 years (especially if we get into kids rooms).

[Blu-Dog]

Streaming will not work, and everyone, especially in the industry, knows it.

1. Every cable provider has OnDemand, including a few 3D movies. The movie industry knows full well this is not a viable revenue producer. $6 to $15 for a 24 hour viewing window? It hasn't happened.
2. Tablets and phones? I won't waste your time or mine talking about this.
3. Not a single broadcast, cable, or satellite station is sending signals at 1080p. 4K is on the horizon, and we see the ship, not just the smokestack. Everything is fully compressed - video and audio. For some, there's no interest in high resolution; they just want to watch The Game, or My Soap Opera, but movie fans are very different. Their product should be available maxed out, and have repeat viewings. See #1.
4. Content owners don't want to spend a fortune protecting copyrights. They want the customer to pay. Sell them a disc, and it's done. Stream it? They play whack-a-mole daily, expanding the sized of their stream, and see an increase in #1.
5. For those who don't understand what bandwidth is, it basically is the size of the pipe your data comes through. To expand the size, or increase the flow, you have to either make ridiculous compressions ratios, expensive equipment to route the signals, and upgrade the receiving equipment in the home. Solution? Just sell a disc to those wanting content. Problem solved. You aren't going to get happy campers telling them that they have to wait two hours (or more) on a crowded pipe, to see a movie at some exorbitant price - just one time. Sell them a disc. Problem solve.

The "wouldn't it be cool" folks look at small-screened gimmicks and their own rig in their own home, and never get to a high vantage point and look at all those rooftops down there. They want all of them pulling down data, all the time, at dirt cheap prices?

That is not in the near future. That being, at least ten years. Probably more, data packages are not getting smaller.

[dib2]

Originally Posted by The_Donster

Honestly guys this is no different than when your cable goes out as my wife pointed out.

Right and the quality of the audio and video from the cable provider sucks too. I can't control the cost. If I want it I have to pay. Where as with physical media I can buy when I want and I don't have to pay if I think it is over priced.

I like net flicks for basic brainless TV but when I tried to watch it on the big screen it looks really bad and sounded horrible. If I could get the same quality streaming as blu-ray and only pay for what I want to watch I'd be ok with that but I would still by physical media.

[krazeyeyez]

Originally Posted by dib2

Right and the quality of the audio and video from the cable provider sucks too. I can't control the cost. If I want it I have to pay. Where as with physical media I can buy when I want and I don't have to pay if I think it is over priced.

I like net flicks for basic brainless TV but when I tried to watch it on the big screen it looks really bad and sounded horrible. If I could get the same quality streaming as blu-ray and only pay for what I want to watch I'd be ok with that but I would still by physical media.

Which is exactly why streaming is competition for cable and satelite, not so much for physical media. Its a great alternative to cable if your not a sports fan or don'tneed to own every tv show you may decide to watch. It also allows sampling for stuff before you buy which comes in handy with genres like anime that can command hefty import prices. I can't imagine limiting myself to only watching media on blu-ray. Just like i couldn't imagine in the dvd days not having cable.

[Steedeel]

I recently had a chance to check out streaming at a friends place. How you streaming guys put up with the picture dropping to a mish mash of pixelation and artefacts even for a minute is beyond me. It would take me right out of the movie. Maybe in a few years streaming will not seem so naff. At the moment it has trash written all over it. HD streams that in my opinion, are no better than DVD. Maybe 4k streams will resemble bluray in ten years time

[slimdude]

Streaming is vastly inferior to blu-ray as far as A/V quality is concern! And for those who prefer streaming, over physical media, doesn't care anything at all about quality whatsoever. Their main priority is the convenience. Nothing can take the place of physical media!

[Steedeel]

Agreed. Watching something like Prometheus on a streaming platform instead of bluray home theatre would be an insult to the cinematography.

[Tok]

Steedeel,

Streaming will be with us in the future, but as a replacement to the rental system. Streaming doesn't satisfy collectors and most collectors don't like the idea of paying a fee everytime they want to watch their favorite films.

Also you have to realize there are some on this board with an agenda and/or still have an axe to grind due to BD winning the format battle.

Look until someone announces they are no longer going to produce discs I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

The majority of the revenue generated in the home video industry is from selling physical media directly to consumers and it has been that way since DVD. Sure the gravy days are over, but for as much as the studio system fought it at first it ended up being their major source of revenue.

The studios are walking a fine line if they are considering eliminating physical media in favor of streaming services. PPV didn't kill VHS or DVD and I don't expect Netflix/Vudu/CinemaNow/UV to kill the Blu-ray disc.

[slimdude]

Originally Posted by CraigW

Steedeel, The majority of the revenue generated in the home video industry is from selling physical media directly to consumers and it has been that way since DVD.

Actually consumers begin purchasing physical media in the home video market was laserdisc, in 1978.

[Tok]

Originally Posted by slimdude

Actually consumers begin purchasing physical media in the home video market was laserdisc, in 1978.

slimdude,

you missed the point. I know about LD. I had a player. LD was a niche market. That's why many of the titles were licensed to be manufactured and produced by other companies.

The point is that DVD was the homevideo format that created the largest revenue stream the studios had ever experienced.

Sure there were some sell through hits on VHS, but the bulk of the VHS revenue was from the rental market. I have a Video magazine from the mid nineties when DVD was being developed. There was geniune concern about the industry moving to a sell through format. Remember at this time you saw some blockbusters priced for sale for consumers at initial release but the fact was that most of the industry was producing VHS for the rental industry. Most titles were not available for purchase for months or years after the intial release.

Warren Lieberfarb of WHV, basically pushed the industry to being based on immediate sell through. The industry was very skeptical of DVD being a sell through format.