Twilight Time Discussion Thread

[Persianimmortal]

Originally Posted by joie

No, I did mention that there was an assumption that all copies would sell (in an earlier post). I think that all copies will eventually sell.

They've already said that for some titles they've released, they may never sell enough copies to recoup their cost. They provided one example:

There is one particular Fox title, I’m loathe to say what it is, but one of the first ones that we did on standard DVD has sold so poorly, at the projected rate of sale, it would take 20 years to sell out. That’s our gamble and that's our loss.

I think it's an incredibly bold assumption that every release they have will sell out given the relative obscurity of some titles. Furthermore, even if it sells out over 3 years, that's still a major upfront cost which is only recouped after several years. Hardly the road to making massive profits.

TT has already said that discounting titles is not a consideration, as it will completely undermine their model. Once buyers get a whiff that a title will be discounted at some point, they will not buy at the time of release. Furthermore, it also ruins the collectability, and hence future sales of upcoming TT releases.

So your assumptions are extremely flawed in arriving at a 50% profit per title. But whatever profit they're making, if it's extravagant then it will attract competitors which will drive down prices. I personally doubt this will happen for niche classics.

Originally Posted by joie

It doesn't matter whether we know precisely what their numbers are. They gave us ballpark figures that provide a lot of insight into their business.

They provided that insight precisely so people wouldn't spend endless hours second-guessing and trashing their model based on completely wild assumptions. Obviously it's backfired in a way, because now people are still going to spend endless hours explaining why TT is doing it wrong based on half-assumptions. It's one of those wonderful aspects of the Internet - everyone is seemingly an expert at the theory, but no-one actually knows anything about the practice.

Once again, the market is wide open if anyone else wants to take the substantial risk of paying upfront to studios to license and product quality BDs of classic films, some of which may never do particularly well. For now, I'm glad TT has taken on the task and turned some of my favorites into quality BD form

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by joie

Yes, there is an opportunity for other small distributors to do something like Twilight Time is doing. Someone willing to take a lower rate of return could eat their lunch!

Well, aside from the fact that they're using a different business model, there already are some other distributors that just license films from the studios. The idea is as old as Criterion, at least.

The fact that TT already has the lead in the limited-edition model means that anyone who tries to repeat this strategy will be trying to play catch-up, possibly without having as good a relationship with the studios as TT already does.

In the end, I don't think that it will matter terribly much which company does it, because the business model is likely going to be largely unchanged, and the level of success they enjoy will continue to depend on the demand being there.

Originally Posted by Persianimmortal

I think it's an incredibly bold assumption that every release they have will sell out given the relative obscurity of some titles. Furthermore, even if it sells out over 3 years, that's still a major upfront cost which is only recouped after several years. Hardly the road to making massive profits.

TT has already said that discounting titles is not a consideration, as it will completely undermine their model. Once buyers get a whiff that a title will be discounted at some point, they will not buy at the time of release. Furthermore, it also ruins the collectability, and hence future sales of upcoming TT releases.

So your assumptions are extremely flawed in arriving at a 50% profit per title. But whatever profit they're making, if it's extravagant then it will attract competitors which will drive down prices. I personally doubt this will happen for niche classics.

They provided that insight precisely so people wouldn't spend endless hours second-guessing and trashing their model based on completely wild assumptions. Obviously it's backfired in a way, because now people are still going to spend endless hours explaining why TT is doing it wrong based on half-assumptions. It's one of those wonderful aspects of the Internet - everyone is seemingly an expert at the theory, but no-one actually knows anything about the practice.

Once again, the market is wide open if anyone else wants to take the substantial risk of paying upfront to studios to license and product quality BDs of classic films, some of which may never do particularly well. For now, I'm glad TT has taken on the task and turned some of my favorites into quality BD form

Exactly what I was trying to say - thank you for saying it better. I am also glad that TT has taken on the task!

[Persianimmortal]

Before I go, I had a few more wishful titles for TT, mainly some of the classic Frank Sinatra films which I doubt will get mainstream BD releases:

Young at Heart (1954)
The Man With the Golden Arm (1955)
The Tender Trap (1955)
Some Came Running (1958)
A Hole in the Head (1959)

Three of the above got a major DVD release by Warner in 2008 as part of the "Sinatra Golden Years" boxed set, so I'm not sure if or when they'll ever be released on blu by Warner. I suspect they'll think the DVD release is more than enough for fans.

Just a wishlist of my favorite Sinatra movies to go along with TT's Pal Joey release

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by Persianimmortal

TT has already said that discounting titles is not a consideration, as it will completely undermine their model. Once buyers get a whiff that a title will be discounted at some point, they will not buy at the time of release. Furthermore, it also ruins the collectability, and hence future sales of upcoming TT releases.

In my opinion I don't buy that type of hysteric mentality that (most) buyers will not buy a title if they "get a whiff that a title will be discounted at some point." That's the same as saying all buyers are too cheap. In my case I buy titles because I want those titles regardless that there is a 100% chance that the title will decrease in price in the future; I'm not the only one that does this. The reward is that I get to enjoy the BD much earlier than if I wait for it to go on sale at some point in time.

Criterion titles are usually listed at an MSRP ($39.95) higher than TT and are typically priced above $30. I don't see people complaing about Criterion's pricing structure. Criterion also discounts their titles at times but that doesn't stop people from buying the titles when they're first released. Some people may hold off but I think the impact is overly exaggerated.

Basically, TT is OK with taking a bigger loss on that title. Now if they discounted that title a bit they might be able to minimize their loss and recoup some of their costs when compared to what they would lose without discounting. Now, only TT knows their internal costs and it's their choice not to discount.

I hope in the end TT is successful so that more titles can be brought to market. I do wish they would do more to market the TT brand to increase their recognition. Then maybe they could recoup their initial investment faster so they could release even more titles sooner rather than later.

More options are always better and there are way too many older titles that may never see the light of day on BD.

[ROclockCK]

Originally Posted by Persianimmortal

Before I go, I had a few more wishful titles for TT, mainly some of the classic Frank Sinatra films which I doubt will get mainstream BD releases:

Young at Heart (1954)
The Man With the Golden Arm (1955)
The Tender Trap (1955)
Some Came Running (1958)
A Hole in the Head (1959)

Three of the above got a major DVD release by Warner in 2008 as part of the "Sinatra Golden Years" boxed set, so I'm not sure if or when they'll ever be released on blu by Warner. I suspect they'll think the DVD release is more than enough for fans.

Just a wishlist of my favorite Sinatra movies to go along with TT's Pal Joey release

But TT only has deals for catalogue titles from two studios Persianimmortal: Fox and Columbia (including TriStar and Sony). Unless there are some major sea changes at the other studios, you won't see MGM, Warners, Paramount or Universal movies on their schedule.

[BluBonnet]

Originally Posted by ROclockCK

But TT only has deals for catalogue titles from two studios Persianimmortal: Fox and Columbia (including TriStar and Sony). Unless there are some major sea changes at the other studios, you won't see MGM, Warners, Paramount or Universal movies on their schedule.

I would not be so sure about that. Paramount and Universal and MGM already license movies to Criterion; I believe Paramount has also been licensing to Olive. So it just might be that they're waiting to put together an agreement once TT has had time to establish its presence a little more solidly.

[oildude]

Since some of you are thinking of titles to suggest on TT's website, I'll repost my most wanted wishlist of older Fox titles (there are more I want to add, but I'll keep it at my top 12 for now - or at least my top 12 until ROclockCK reminds me of some I forgot ).

Please feel free to suggest any or all of these to TT. (especially the first three).

The Blue Max (1966) by John Guillermin, who also directed Rapture - I thnk it was his next film.
Fantastic Voyage (1966)
China Gate (1957) - written, produced, and directed by Samuel Fuller
Von Ryan's Express (1965) - Sinatra in a great WWII prison escape film.
Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea (1961)
Sink the Bismarck (1960)
The Young Lions (1958) - one of Brando's best roles
The Agony and the Ecstasy (1965)
North to Alaska (1960)
The Enemy Below (1957)
The Snows of Kilimanjaro (1952)
King of the Khyber Rifles (1953)

Most of these were shot with Cinemascope lenses. I had Journey to the Center of the Earth on the list, and whaddya know it actually got announced.

Columbia has some great titles in their catalog - I will always want more classic sci-fi, more noir, and more Harryhausen - but Fox has so many great titles it is ridiculous.

[BluBonnet]

A very good list, oildude! I would be especially happy to see "Fantastic Voyage" and "Snows of Kilimanjaro" released via TT!

[ROclockCK]

Originally Posted by oildude

Since some of you are thinking of titles to suggest on TT's website, I'll repost my most wanted wishlist of older Fox titles (there are more I want to add, but I'll keep it at my top 12 for now - or at least my top 12 until ROclockCk reminds me of some I forgot ).

Not this time oildude. The original deal with Fox was for titles that had never been released on DVD (in North America at least). So I focused on those MIAs, and thought both of us were indulging in pure wishful thinking regarding classic 'Scope titles that already have DVDs, such as Fantastic Voyage and Sink the Bismarck!

Originally Posted by oildude

The Blue Max (1966) by John Guillermin, who also directed Rapture - I thnk it was his next film.
Fantastic Voyage (1966)
China Gate (1957) - written, produced, and directed by Samuel Fuller
Von Ryan's Express (1965) - Sinatra in a great WWII prison escape film.
Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea (1961)
Sink the Bismarck (1960)
The Young Lions (1958) - one of Brando's best roles
The Agony and the Ecstasy (1965)
North to Alaska (1960)
The Enemy Below (1957)
The Snows of Kilimanjaro (1952)
King of the Khyber Rifles (1953)

Most of these were shot with Cinemascope lenses. I had Journey to the Center of the Earth on the list, and whaddya know it actually got announced.

After Demetrius and the Gladiators and especially Journey to the Center of the Earth, I think both of us have been a bit too conservative in our picks...as in "Oh, they'll never let that one go!" Both Fox and Columbia are clearly in a catalogue licensing mood these days though, and it isn't just confined to their vault 'dust gatherers' anymore. So you you might actually get a more mainstream war movie like The Blue Max much sooner than you think.

[oildude]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

A very good list, oildude! I would be especially happy to see "Fantastic Voyage" and "Snows of Kilimanjaro" released via TT!

On the wikipedia website entry for Fantastic Voyage, there is a link to films from 1966. What a great year for movies that was!

One Columbia title that jumped out at me is The Lost Command, starring Anthony Quinn. I saw that one on network TV in the 1980s and later bought the DVD.

[SpartanIre]

[Show spoiler]

Originally Posted by oildude

Since some of you are thinking of titles to suggest on TT's website, I'll repost my most wanted wishlist of older Fox titles (there are more I want to add, but I'll keep it at my top 12 for now - or at least my top 12 until ROclockCk reminds me of some I forgot ).

Please feel free to suggest any or all of these. (especially the first three).

The Blue Max (1966) by John Guillermin, who also directed Rapture - I thnk it was his next film.
Fantastic Voyage (1966)
China Gate (1957) - written, produced, and directed by Samuel Fuller
Von Ryan's Express (1965) - Sinatra in a great WWII prison escape film.
Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea (1961)
Sink the Bismarck (1960)
The Young Lions (1958) - one of Brando's best roles
The Agony and the Ecstasy (1965)
North to Alaska (1960)
The Enemy Below (1957)
The Snows of Kilimanjaro (1952)
King of the Khyber Rifles (1953)

Most of these were shot with Cinemascope lenses. I had Journey to the Center of the Earth on the list, and whaddya know it actually got announced.

Columbia has some great titles in their catalog - I will always want more classic sci-fi, more noir, and more Harryhausen - but Fox has so many great titles it is ridiculous.

I'll have to check out the others on your list but I am definitely in for:
North to Alaska
The Enemy Below
The Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea
The Blue Max

[Persianimmortal]

Originally Posted by BluBonnet

I would not be so sure about that. Paramount and Universal and MGM already license movies to Criterion; I believe Paramount has also been licensing to Olive. So it just might be that they're waiting to put together an agreement once TT has had time to establish its presence a little more solidly.

Yes I'm not completely clear as to why TT can't make deals with other studios. We'll have to see, as sadly many of the films I want are owned by Warner and Paramount Once again, a giant list from TT of potential licensing candidates would really help us all focus on what's possible and what's not.

From oildude's list, I would definitely love:

North to Alaska (1960)
Fantastic Voyage (1966)

[BluBonnet]

One more title from Fox I'd forgotten: Robert Aldrich's "Sodom and Gomorrah" (1962), starring Stewart Granger and Pier Angeli:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056504/

Fox released it as a widescreen LD, but never on DVD (in the US). So it'd be a perfect title for TT. It's not one of the great sandal epics, but it's still pretty good.

[SpartanIre]

Originally Posted by Persianimmortal

Yes I'm not completely clear as to why TT can't make deals with other studios. We'll have to see, as sadly many of the films I want are owned by Warner and Paramount Once again, a giant list from TT of potential licensing candidates would really help us all focus on what's possible and what's not.

From oildude's list, I would definitely love:

North to Alaska (1960)
Fantastic Voyage (1966)

It sounds like because of the connections TT has with Columbia and Fox, especially considering the initial 10+ movies they licensed, that is where their focus lies right now. Hopefully the other studios will submit their own lists at TT's request for catalogue films...

[benbess]

Originally Posted by Persianimmortal

Yes I'm not completely clear as to why TT can't make deals with other studios. We'll have to see, as sadly many of the films I want are owned by Warner and Paramount Once again, a giant list from TT of potential licensing candidates would really help us all focus on what's possible and what's not.

From oildude's list, I would definitely love:

North to Alaska (1960)
Fantastic Voyage (1966)

Warner--so far anyway--doesn't ever license anything to anybody. It's either WB does it or it never gets done.

The founders of TT have said that even sticking with just Columbia/Sony and Fox that they will literally not be likely to live long enough to get through their lists for these two studios. So I think in any brainstorming we should strictly stick to Columbia and Fox for now.

Wishes for other studios beyond Fox and Columbia should just go to the general wish list area on this site, and not on this thread imho.

[Yami]

Warner actually does licence titles out, they did so recently with the BFI, it's just much more difficult.

I think TT should stick with the deals they've got right now to be honest.

[Akijama]

Originally Posted by oildude

Since some of you are thinking of titles to suggest on TT's website, I'll repost my most wanted wishlist of older Fox titles (there are more I want to add, but I'll keep it at my top 12 for now - or at least my top 12 until ROclockCK reminds me of some I forgot ).

Please feel free to suggest any or all of these to TT. (especially the first three).

The Blue Max (1966) by John Guillermin, who also directed Rapture - I thnk it was his next film.
Fantastic Voyage (1966)
China Gate (1957) - written, produced, and directed by Samuel Fuller
Von Ryan's Express (1965) - Sinatra in a great WWII prison escape film.
Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea (1961)
Sink the Bismarck (1960)
The Young Lions (1958) - one of Brando's best roles
The Agony and the Ecstasy (1965)
North to Alaska (1960)
The Enemy Below (1957)
The Snows of Kilimanjaro (1952)
King of the Khyber Rifles (1953)

Most of these were shot with Cinemascope lenses. I had Journey to the Center of the Earth on the list, and whaddya know it actually got announced.

Columbia has some great titles in their catalog - I will always want more classic sci-fi, more noir, and more Harryhausen - but Fox has so many great titles it is ridiculous.

Good list.I'd like to add few more titles:

The Flight of the Phoenix (1965) - I assume this title is too "big" for TT,since they licencing more niche(obscure) titles from 20th Century Fox.
Walter Hill's The Driver (1978)
Joseph L. Mankiewicz's great and underrated 5 Fingers (1952) starring James Mason.
The Incident (1967) - I think this one didn't even get a DVD treatment!?
The Panic in Needle Park (1971)
Emperor of the North Pole (1973)
Fort Apache, The Bronx (1981)
Kiss of Death (1947)
Fallen Angel (1945)
Nightmare Alley (1947)
Night and the City(1950)
The Abyss (1988) - Yeah,it's a joke :P
and offcourse - Laura (1944) but that's job either for Fox or Criterion.

I'll repeat once again : Probably none of this will happen,'cause TT mostly licencing obscure titles from Fox,but we can dream,right? ^^

[benbess]

Originally Posted by Akijama

Good list.I'd like to add few more titles:

The Flight of the Phoenix (1965) - I assume this title is too "big" for TT,since they licencing more niche(obscure) titles from 20th Century Fox.
Walter Hill's The Driver (1978)
Joseph L. Mankiewicz's great and underrated 5 Fingers (1952) starring James Mason.
The Incident (1967) - I think this one didn't even get a DVD treatment!?
The Panic in Needle Park (1971)
Emperor of the North Pole (1973)
Fort Apache, The Bronx (1981)
Kiss of Death (1947)
Fallen Angel (1945)
Nightmare Alley (1947)
Night and the City(1950)
The Abyss (1988) - Yeah,it's a joke :P
and offcourse - Laura (1944) but that's job either for Fox or Criterion.

I'll repeat once again : Probably none of this will happen,'cause TT mostly licencing obscure titles from Fox,but we can dream,right? ^^

Great list--except for the Abyss, of course, lol!

I think there is a good chance some of these might come out through TT.

I'm not sure the Fox titles so far are exactly obscure. Both The Egyptian and Demetrius and the Gladiators were big budget Cinemascope epics back in the day--and at least moderate hits. The TT people themselves were somewhat surprised they got the rights to them. And so I think the rest of these titles do have at least something of a chance...

[ROclockCK]

Originally Posted by benbess

Warner--so far anyway--doesn't ever license anything to anybody. It's either WB does it or it never gets done.

...or more likely these days, it just goes to their Warner Archives MOD DVD-R program. Ditto for MGM. Paramount has its Olive Films subsidiary. Universal is the only studio with a locked-tight vault and no clear direction what they intend to do with their catalogue assets.

Originally Posted by benbess

The founders of TT have said that even sticking with just Columbia/Sony and Fox that they will literally not be likely to live long enough to get through their lists for these two studios. So I think in any brainstorming we should strictly stick to Columbia and Fox for now.

Agreed. From the Redman interviews, we know they submitted a list of 200 titles to Fox, which got whacked down to 100 by the studio for various reasons (including management faves that Fox *might* still do). Of the remaining 100, some masters weren't up to snuff in terms of AQ/PQ (e.g. only available in old letterbox transfers, such as Sodom and Gomorrah). So even some of those will have to remain on the back burner until the studio PIP team readies them for HD. I don't know what the final count is, but let's say only 50 of the 100 Fox titles are available and HD ready. At the rate of 1 release per month (the other goes to Columbia), it will take Twilight Time at least 4 years to go through their original Fox list...that takes us up to 2016!

The big unknown here though is how many titles that weren't on the original list (because they already had North American DVDs), are now up for grabs because Fox has had second and third thoughts about their retail viability under the home label. Demetrius and Journey fall into this category, which means if TT managed to get those titles, then probably a handful more could be falling into their hands too. Say it's only a couple of dozen more, but that'll take another 2 years. Now we're up to 2018!

Originally Posted by benbess

Wishes for other studios beyond Fox and Columbia should just go to the general wish list area on this site, and not on this thread imho.

Just from a practical standpoint, it's clear that TT already has its hands full with the Fox catalogue, and is equally committed to Columbia. So yes, any discussion of TT's release schedule will defacto be more confined...at least for the foreseeable future.

[ROclockCK]

Originally Posted by Akijama

Good list.I'd like to add few more titles:

The Flight of the Phoenix (1965) - I assume this title is too "big" for TT,since they licencing more niche(obscure) titles from 20th Century Fox. - after the surprise Demetrius and Journey announcements, I bet TT can get it
Walter Hill's The Driver (1978)
Joseph L. Mankiewicz's great and underrated 5 Fingers (1952) starring James Mason.
The Incident (1967) - I think this one didn't even get a DVD treatment!? - which makes it a perfect fit for TT, assuming a decent master exists
The Panic in Needle Park (1971)
Emperor of the North Pole (1973)
Fort Apache, The Bronx (1981)
Kiss of Death (1947)
Fallen Angel (1945)
Nightmare Alley (1947)
Night and the City(1950) - Criterion already has that one in their DVD collection, but they might do an upgrade to Blu
The Abyss (1988) - Yeah,it's a joke :P - wouldn't be a joke to James Cameron, and Fox wouldn't dare p*ss him off
and offcourse - Laura (1944) but that's job either for Fox or Criterion - should be, but I wouldn't consider it a lock for either label.

I'll repeat once again : Probably none of this will happen,'cause TT mostly licencing obscure titles from Fox,but we can dream,right? ^^

LEGEND: I highlighted in red the ones that I think have a reel chance - at least they fit the general profile. Anything from the Fox Film Noir series I've left gray...Fox might put a box of those together themselves (anchored by Laura?). All other comments are in blue.

Another great list Akijama. For some of those movies, I really appreciate the memory jog (I forgot The Incident and 5 Fingers were Fox!)