Coronavirus (NO POLITICAL OR SOCIAL COMMENTARY PLEASE)

[mar3o]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/colorado-...204932662.html

Looks like that restaurant that defied state orders to stay closed has been forced to shut down again:

In response, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis announced Monday that the state was suspending the restaurant’s operating license for 30 days “until it’s established that there is no longer a threat to public health.”

[MifuneFan]

Good.

[veritas]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

Weeks? S.F. ordered a shelter in place to start on March 17th. NY order theirs (called "Pause) on March 22nd..

SF: https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/fil...r-in-Place.pdf
NY: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/gov...xecutive-order

In terms of weeks into the outbreak. New york was a couple of weeks ahead of the bay area in terms of exponential growth and how long Their number of cases had been growing. The doubling rate in new york from march 17th to march 22 was also 3 days so by waiting 5 days they increased their problems by a nearly a factor of 4.

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by mar3o

https://www.yahoo.com/news/colorado-...204932662.html

Looks like that restaurant that defied state orders to stay closed has been forced to shut down again:

i posted this last page

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by Lacit170

i posted this last page

Yup, I just noticed that. Oops. Oh, well it deserved to be posted twice anyways.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by veritas

The odds of a second wave in a decent portion of the country is nearly 100% with our current plan in most of the country. We have states with an R a little greater then 1 loosening restrictions and we have people as a whole doing worse at social distancing the longer the quarantine goes on. When you put the two together you would need a miracle to not get exponential growth. At this point its almost guaranteed we open up to some degree and we see exponential growth again the only real question is how quickly states will re implement shelter in place rules.

The main difference between New York and the bay area was that New York delayed a few weeks longer then the bay area in implementing a shelter in place.

The main difference is that New York is much more densely populated and relies heavily on public transport. I think their shelter in place started about a week after, if not a few days.

But as being the hardest hit, they will have the advantage of having 25% or more of their city being immune. And they will probably be more cautious then, say, another area that wasn't so heavily hit.

Don't underestimate the effectiveness of masks either. That's going to stay a requirement this fall and winter. Cloth masks on average filter out 50 to 70% of viral particles in the air. So yeah, they help protect you too, not just yourself from others. And when you have nearly everyone wearing them where required, it increases the level of protection.

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by veritas

In terms of weeks into the outbreak. New york was a couple of weeks ahead of the bay area in terms of exponential growth. The doubling rate in new york from march 17th to march 22 was also 3 days so by waiting 5 days they increased their problems by a nearly a factor of 4.

Okay it's easy to say that in hindsight, but 14 days prior to the shelter in place, NYC literally had 7 official cases. You could say oh they should have shut everything down right then and there, but that's a hard thing to just assess when you're dealing with very few cases at that point. . I think regardless of the timing, whether earlier or not, NYC was inevitably going to have a major problem based on our population density, and being the major travel hub that we are. I think only when looking back can you say "oh if you did this, or did that differently lives could have been spared".

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by AeroK

How long was it between the positive test and the negative antibody test?

6 weeks

[MifuneFan]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

6 weeks

I believe antibodies (the IgG one) develop some 3 or so weeks after a person has recovered, but it could be longer in some cases.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by veritas

I think never shutting down is one of our biggest problems actually. If we do a hard lock down where we close basically everything except hospitals for a couple of weeks we could get R well below one and exponentially shrink the number of cases to a level where we could contact trace. A hard lockdown is also actually enforceable since their isnt a laundry list of reasons for people to be out of their house making enforcement simple.

What I think we should have done is say we are doing a hard lock down in 1 week. The lock down will last 2 weeks and during that time even grocery stores will be closed. After about 2 weeks their should be about 1/10th or less the number of new corona virus cases daily and everything can go back to normal until the number of corona virus cases gets above a certain level in which case we again just shut down for a couple of weeks. With modulation the world can keep spinning and we could have a somewhat normal economy some of the time.

This isn't China and besides you have to get food somehow. There really isn't any correlation to the severity of lockdowns and how much they lowered cases. Going to the grocery store isn't as risky now that masks are required and they have plexi-glass installed, one way aisles, and other safety measures. Those that weren't in place until the lockdown was ongoing for over a month. \

Outside it's safe. One extensive contact tracing study of 3000 cases found that only 2 of them were from outside. The air is just too vast and dilutes particles very quickly. So locking people inside is not the answer and will just lower their immunity due to not getting enough vitamin D from the sun and lack of exercise as well.

[mar3o]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/workplace...050155366.html

“The people who are getting sick right now are generally people who are working,” Dr. Mark Escott, a regional health official, told Austin’s city council. “That risk is going to increase the more people are working.”

Austin’s concerns will likely be mirrored in communities nationwide as the reopening of stores and factories creates new opportunities for the virus to spread.

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by MifuneFan

I believe antibodies (the IgG one) develop some 3 or so weeks after a person has recovered, but it could be longer in some cases.

And...there is a lot of evidence that they're just not 100%.

[Batman1980]

SANTA FE, N.M. (KRQE) – The New Mexico Department of Health announced Monday that COVID-19 testing will be available to all workers in the state starting May 12.

All workers in New Mexico will now have access to a test, symptomatic or not. This includes all government employees, utility and construction workers, grocery and pharmacy workers, retail and wholesale, food services or other service industries.

“It is important to the Department of Health and this administration to increase testing for all New Mexicans and provide access to COVID-19 testing to as many persons as possible,” said NMDOH Cabinet Secretary Kathy Kunkel in a press release. “In addition to ‘by-appointment-test-and-go’ opportunities at all public health offices in the state, we have expanded our ‘open drive-up testing’ sites and we are also available for on-site testing.”

Lovelace Hospital in downtown Albuquerque will be open to the public for anyone needing or wanting a coronavirus test. The drive-thru clinic will be open from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. and testing will be free. Anyone going to the test site should bring your insurance care and limit the number of people in the vehicle to two.

“Increased testing allows for increased case surveillance and contact tracing which helps us mitigate community spread and keep New Mexico safe,” said Secretary Kunkel in the same release.

Source - KRQE.com

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by bruceames

This isn't China and besides you have to get food somehow. There really isn't any correlation to the severity of lockdowns and how much they lowered cases. Going to the grocery store isn't as risky now that masks are required and they have plexi-glass installed, one way aisles, and other safety measures. Those that weren't in place until the lockdown was ongoing for over a month. \

Outside it's safe. One extensive contact tracing study of 3000 cases found that only 2 of them were from outside. The air is just too vast and dilutes particles very quickly. So locking people inside is not the answer and will just lower their immunity due to not getting enough vitamin D from the sun and lack of exercise as well.

i still think the mask effectiveness is vastly being over generous when it comes to homemade ones. all depends on materials being used etc...

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Lacit170

i still think the mask effectiveness is vastly being over generous when it comes to homemade ones. all depends on materials being used etc...

Maybe, I got the estimate from a respected biologist. He said they block out 10-90% of the virus particles, which 50-70% being the most common range. The masks are mainly to stop the larger droplets anyway, so the cloth masks can block those effectively. Aerosols are a less common way of contracting the virus.

[mar3o]

I don't understand why store owners like the restaurant in Colorado thinks they can get away with violating state orders and re-opening without even practicing any safe distancing or limiting customers. They even allowed dining in which is not allowed currently. What did they think was going to happen?

[Lacit170]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Maybe, I got the estimate from a respected biologist. He said they block out 10-90% of the virus particles, which 50-70% being the most common range. The masks are mainly to stop the larger droplets anyway, so the cloth masks can block those effectively. Aerosols are a less common way of contracting the virus.

10-90% lol

cmon

[IndyMLVC]

I gotta tell you...Chinese Food is practically found every few blocks in NYC. It kills me that those places have been closed for 2 months. That's my go-to comfort food.

[Leeon0]

Wet markets have been around for ages, and then this virus suddenly erupts out of the blue in tandem with the US-China trade war.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

I gotta tell you...Chinese Food is practically found every few blocks in NYC. It kills me that those places have been closed for 2 months. That's my go-to comfort food.

I'ma sneak off after Thursday's 8 mile run and get some Panda Express to go, haven't had decent fake Chinese since probably early March.