Real 4k disks - what do you think the rollout timeline will be?

[mjbethancourt]

Originally Posted by mredman

more then that. Look how much big blockbuster movies sell on blu ray. Physical media will likely never go away when studios make millions on it. Even CD and DVD's still get released

I'm not predicting the "death" of blu-ray, I'm predicting that it will be superceded. We had this same conversation here a few years ago about the demise of DVD (back in 2009, I believe). The majority of posters were saying that DVD would cease to exist in the next year or two because blu-ray was finally starting to take a good chunk of market-share, and I said that DVD would hang on and co-exist as a lesser "bargain" format, perhaps indefinitely. Naturally, everybody else in the thread spent the next week exhaustively berating me as a stupid, crazy "closet HD-DVD fan"... well, the years passed, and look who was right.

I'm saying the same thing now about blu-ray: it will be superceded as the mass-market standard at the end of the decade, but it will continue to exist and sell well for many years beyond that.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

The majority of posters were saying that DVD would cease to exist in the next year or two because blu-ray was finally starting to take a good chunk of market-share

IMO: there is little chance that Blu-ray (or EST, UHD Blu-ray, hockey pucks, what have you) will ever match DVD. The ownership market has become too fragmented for any one device or service to dominate like DVD has/does. They are predicting that rental will surpass ownership in the not too distant future.

[Geoff D]

I agree. The success of DVD was unprecedented, and it was so darned popular that anything following in its wake would have had a hard time keeping up. Add to that the proliferation (and subsequent fragmentation) of the streaming market, and there's so much choice for consumers that physical media is on a hiding to nothing. And yet, those darned LPs, CDs, DVDs, Blu-rays etc are still being made...

The folks who smugly predict that 4K BD won't become an all-conquering standard are preaching to the converted, because we all know that we're through the looking glass regarding streaming and whatnot. BUT there's still room for the format to come to market and serve what may well end up being a select group of enthusiasts, providing it doesn't get drowned at birth by a cluster**** of 4K streaming services.

[Penton-Man]

Wendell, I think you’re right. DVD was kind of like the ’72 Miami Dolphins….http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Miami_Dolphins_season

[blonde_devil]

Originally Posted by Geoff D

I agree. The success of DVD was unprecedented, and it was so darned popular that anything following in its wake would have had a hard time keeping up. Add to that the proliferation (and subsequent fragmentation) of the streaming market, and there's so much choice for consumers that physical media is on a hiding to nothing. And yet, those darned LPs, CDs, DVDs, Blu-rays etc are still being made...

The folks who smugly predict that 4K BD won't become an all-conquering standard are preaching to the converted, because we all know that we're through the looking glass regarding streaming and whatnot. BUT there's still room for the format to come to market and serve what may well end up being a select group of enthusiasts, providing it doesn't get drowned at birth by a cluster**** of 4K streaming services.

I mentioned it somewhere else but dvd was the big step in home entertainment. laserdisc was the quality step from vhs but those discs were just too damn big and they had too make issues. with dvd, you had something that looked familiar to people but with noticable improvements over anything that had some before. plus it was adaptable - you could use them for home data, storage, etc. problem with bluray/hd-dvd is that the average person doesn't see the improvements the way they did with dvd. sure, the picture is clearer but that's about all they see. the next big thing in terms of home entertainment needs to be somehting very different so people see the changes and improvements that it has. 4K is great but I don't know if the average person will care enough about it.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Geoff D

The folks who smugly predict that 4K BD won't become an all-conquering standard are preaching to the converted, because we all know that we're through the looking glass regarding streaming and whatnot. BUT there's still room for the format to come to market and serve what may well end up being a select group of enthusiasts..

Mountain bike racing is niche in the world of bicycle riders (consumers who own and ride bicycles). Senior class (Masters) is even niche of niche, but that doesn’t mean that the involved enthusiasts don’t totally enjoy it….and have been doing so since the early ‘90’s.

Do I care that my next door neighbor only has a ‘beach cruiser’ and tools around the bicycle trail at the beach with all the tourists? No....I Don’t Care. Different strokes for different folks.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

During all the insightful analysis, please don't forget to be courteous to the OP of this thread and vote...https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...le#post8203412

Tally so far…

2014 – 4 votes
Late 2014 – early 2015 – 1 vote
2015 – 2 votes
2015 – 2016 – ½ vote (I think that more than a one-year-span-guess only deserves half value)
2016 – 1 vote
2018 – 1 vote

[mjbethancourt]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Tally so far…


2015 – 2016 – ½ vote (I think that more than a one-year-span-guess only deserves half value)

Why not just split the point, and give each year a half-point?

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

Why not just split the point, and give each year a half-point?

We could and it’s up to Darren (the OP) but, personally I’d prefer to encourage no more than 12-month specific forecasts, thusly the valuation.

[Penton-Man]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Tally so far…

2014 – 4 votes
Late 2014 – early 2015 – 1 vote
2015 – 2 votes
2015 – 2016 – ½ vote (I think that more than a one-year-span-guess only deserves half value)
2016 – 1 vote
2018 – 1 vote

Need more voting....and less expert opinions.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Put me down for 2014

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by UNCMT9

Years. A lot of people still don't have HDTV's.

Where are these people? I don't know any.

[Steedeel]

2015 for me. Want it sooner though

[Penton-Man]

To Wendell ^ and Steed ^, done.

Tally so far…

2014 – 5 votes
Late 2014 – early 2015 – 1 vote
2015 – 3 votes
2015 – 2016 – ½ vote (I think that more than a one-year-span-guess only deserves half value)
2016 – 1 vote
2018 – 1 vote

As an aside, this job is much easier than L'armée’s…https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=218262

[KRW1]

2015 I think, late probably. 2014 will be the year they start banging on about 4k in a big way.

[DiscoDan]

It's not even November and I've noticed some really big discounts on BDs. I think Studios are already gearing up to dump their inventory and move on to 4K. If the first 4K disc isn't introduced by Christmas '14, I'll be shocked.

[Penton-Man]

Tally so far…

2014 – 6½ votes
2015 – 4½ votes
2015 – 2016 – (meaning a two year time span) ½ vote
2016 – 1 vote
2018 – 1 vote

[reanimator]

If the BDA is announcing a 4KBD spec at the end of this year, the question is how fast can the manufacturers get something into the production pipeline and onto the store shelves.

I'll vote 2015, with hopes that Sony will move faster to have something ready for Christmas 2014.

[singhcr]

I think 2015 is a realistic timeline for 4K discs. I would expect to see more affordable 4K TV's some time in 2014 along with HDMI 2.0 compliant AVR's, etc and the 4K BD format being announced with early models coming out the next year.

[Penton-Man]

Tally so far…(somebody needs to break the tie as only one horse wins)

2014 – 6½ votes
2015 – 6½ votes
2015 – 2016 – (meaning a two year time span) ½ vote
2016 – 1 vote
2018 – 1 vote