Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[blueshadow | Kosty]

I think the poll was not actually posted as a link to any consumer web site. It was given as an internal link to individuals selected or invited to do the poll or from a site that the pool participants for Harris Interactive had access to, General consumers could just not randomly click entry and participate in the survey. It was from a preregistered and preselected pool of eligible respondents. The survey itself besides the poor wording of the HD DVD related question and the stupid clueless writeup and analysis was based on a proven methodology. But that methodology is a tool and here it was clearly misused. Like a bad driver for a sports car the result was a poor result and a serious accident. Its not the method's fault it was the way it was used.

[2010CAMARO]

I keep hearing conflicting reports whether the Blu-ray format will last or if it will just fade away

I recently bought a player and a bunch of discs (I love the format) but it seems thateverywhere I turn people are offering reasons as to why I should not invest in Blu-ray and to save my $ for digital downloads.

The main reasons being (in no particular order)

1/ Digital downloads will replace Blu-ray/dvd within the next few years

2/ It is too expensive for the avgerage person given the worldwide economic climate.

3/ People will not upgrade their dvd collections.

4/ People are scared that they are buying the modern day version of a beta machine and don't want to get burned.

5/ People are happy enough with the current dvds.


So what's the story? Is Blu-ray worth investing in or is it going the way of beta? I'd hate to trade in my current dvd's only to have to buy them again.

Any thoughts?

Thanks in advance.

P.S. Forgive me if this topic has been talked about before. I'm new here.

[maygit]

I don't see why blu-ray won't succeed. First to note, the costs of manufacturing will come down as almost all things do given time. That goes for both the costs of the movies and the players. Second, digital downloads will probably live side by side with blu-ray. A lot of old people with money to burn do not own P.C.s and would not beable to support digital downloads leading room for another format. Also, many people prefer to have hard copies of items. Plus, digital downloads would take hours to obtain, especially movies in blu-ray quality around 30gb+. Finally, the digital downloads could end up costing more than BD's in the long run. I can almost garauntee internet service providers soon in the future will begin charging for how much bandwidth you use per month(they already kind of do). That will eventually lead to pay as you go internet cards! Can any say Tracweb? InterNet10?

Don't get me wrong, i'd support digital downloads myself but i just don't believe they will whipe out blu-ray in the next 5 years.

[AgentBLU]

digital downloads can not have the kind of HD audio we have now on Blu-ray.....nuff said.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by 2010CAMARO

So what's the story? Is Blu-ray worth investing in or is it going the way of beta? I'd hate to trade in my current dvd's only to have to buy them again.

Any thoughts?

The sales data make it obvious that BD is the future,

look at this


Gladiator and Braveheart made the top ten sales chart based pretty much only on BD sales. Many have moved from DVD to BD.

as for people saying BD is doomed, just look at who they are, you will always find a link back to computer/DL companies. They have a vested interest in spreading FUD to con people out of spending their $ on BD and on their products which are not going anywhere.

but if you want point by point of how stupid they sound

1/ Digital downloads will replace Blu-ray/dvd within the next few years

The internet does not have enough BW to make this possible and won't have in the next few years. Also how many people want a PC in the middle of the living room?

2/ It is too expensive for the avgerage person given the worldwide economic climate.

BD players are under 200$ and some around 100$ (I think) Netflix charges 1-4$ more and some places don't have a difference, movie purchases are usually under 5$ difference for new titles.

who are these people that can afford DVD and purchase/rent a lot but can't afford BD? (because who cares about the guy that cares about neither and if all the people that buy/rent a lot move to BD then there won't be much for DVD.

Also if people are so cash strapped to get BD then how are they supposed to have the cash to go DL? (point $1)

3/ People will not upgrade their dvd collections.

I am sure some people will not upgrade some titles, does it matter? do you think anyone cares that I decided not to upgrade some of the VHS tapes I had because I was no longer interested in the content?

Let me ask you this, do you think a studio cares (today) if 5 years ago you bought the DVD and today you are not re-buying the title? You are not buying the DVD you are not buying the BD, you just don't count. If that earlier copy is still playable, if it is in a landfill no one but you cares.

4/ People are scared that they are buying the modern day version of a beta machine and don't want to get burned.

isn't that why the FUD is around? but let me ask you this. We have a common format supported by all electronic companies and all the studios, on the other hand we have several DL services all of which are incompatible. Why would anyone in his right mind be worried about BD more then appleTV, Hulu, Vudu, Netflix DL... which are proprietary and could disappear if the company goes bankrupt or changes direction? Even if one assumes DL is the future, it is obvious that not all of them can survive.

5/ People are happy enough with the current dvds.

and "people" where happy enough with VHS before they got DVD.

[mjbethancourt]

Those concerns were all discussed and answered two years ago.

Dowload will exist, but it won't mount much of a competition.

Blu-ray is not expensive, that is a myth which is finally starting to roll back.

It really doesn't matter if people upgrade their DVD collection or not, the majority of home video sales are new releases. As people come on board, they stop buying DVDs, and blu-ray's share keeps growing.

That "beware the next Beta" is negativity that should have been laid to rest last february when blu-ray finally officially defeated HD-DVD. Blu-ray is here to stay, there should be no doubt about that. It is the clear winner of all current formats, it will take a revolution in performance to displace it.

Blu-ray is not the future, blu-ray is now.

[coolmilo]

Yes, the Op's list does not mean much today. However, I have some more current concerns with the format:

1. The price for new releases is still too expensive. New releases should be priced to sell on release day. $20 or less is reasonable. Watchmen is a good examply of what can happen to Blu-ray if the movies were priced properly.

2. Quality control with many titles (think Gladiator).

3. Not enough of the big catalog titles are being released. Some good titles have been delayed.

4. Even though DVD sales are decreasing, Blu-ray sales are not increasing when compared each week. Blu-ray is always 10 to 12% of DVD sales.

I think this holiday season will tell us much about the future of Blu-ray. I hope the future is a bright future for the format and addressing these concerns will help improve the format.

[mjbethancourt]

MSRP is too high, and that is a problem. All titles are available for completely reasonable prices on Amazon, (average is about $20 or less); but, to the typical schmoe who hasn't bought into blu-ray yet, he sees them on the shelf at Wal-mart or Best-buy for $30 and thinks that's the going price. That's no good.

I disagree about the quality issue... I don't think that hurts sales at all, the only people who care about the PQ on 'Gladiator' are people who have already bought into blu-ray and high def and have developed an exacting standard that might even be unreasonable: they can't all be the best-of-the-best, there's going to be a range of PQ/AQ, no matter what, because the source material isn't standardized across all titles.

[Afrobean]

Afrobean here to hammer home points others have already taken a stab at.

Originally Posted by 2010CAMARO

1/ Digital downloads will replace Blu-ray/dvd within the next few years

This is unrealistic for average Americans, let alone elsewhere in the world. It is also impossible to reach BD's quality levels on downloads, even in the foreseeable future. My understanding is that downloads/streams are lucky to reach BROADCAST level quality.

2/ It is too expensive for the avgerage person given the worldwide economic climate.

Entertainment industries are some of the most recession-proof of all industries. Anyone who says "people won't invest in new entertainment during economic downturn" doesn't understand economics or human nature. Entertainment is escapism.

If a person can't afford 20~25 bucks for new releases on release day, they have a few options: buy cheap titles only, wait to buy, shop around, or just stick to renting. Having a BD player and receiving BDs from Netflix still lets you enjoy the higher quality picture and sound available without making one pay the sometimes heavy price gap.

3/ People will not upgrade their dvd collections.

Upgrading is not necessary to enjoy Blu-ray in the here-and-now or in the future.

This is quite possibly the stupidest point anyone might try to make against Blu-ray.

4/ People are scared that they are buying the modern day version of a beta machine and don't want to get burned.

Beta failed because of poor hardware/software adoption compared to its competitor of VHS. Blu-ray succeeded in defeating its competitor in HD DVD, is enjoying unanimous support from all major studios and hardware manufacturers, and while DVD is going down, Blu-ray adoption is growing at an amazing rate. Streaming has grown at an amazing rate for the rental market, but downloads/streaming isn't making a real dent on the purchase-to-own market.

5/ People are happy enough with the current dvds.

As people continue adopting HDTVs, they will discover that over-the-air broadcast network TV gives better picture than DVD, and this will encourage them to adopt an ownership platform that provides HD content.

[syncguy]

Digital downloads cannot compete with HD blu-ray unless Internet capacity is boosted and home access is improved which would cost billions of dollars. I cannot see anyone footing a bill for a massive Internet upgrade during next few years.

[lobosrul]

I don't see why the sales numbers on that chart are so encouraging. Gladiator and Braveheart just had a new BD release but no new DVD release. Only 2 other titles on the list are above 1 quarter of total sales, and one of them is Disney's Earth, which I'm guessing is HD demo material, and a special case of sorts. Most other titles are down around 10%, thats not impressive. The one good thing I would take from that list, is 17 of the top 20 titles are available on BD.

The main reason IMO that BD is suffering is the "good enough as long as its cheap and easy" mentality of today's consumers. Thats exacerbated by the current recession. Look at music downloads, they're still mostly crappy mp3 quality.

As far as HDTV picture quality, most of it is just plain bad. Theres only a few channels on Dish Network that I'll even watch except for sporting events and news (HDNet, HDNet movies come to mind). Most other channels I find myself thinking, I'd rather watch this on DVD. Either the picture is terribly soft or theres annoying snipes all over the place, or its stretched. If the majority of consumers cared about the quality of what they're watching the few of us that do wouldn't have to put up with it. As far as OTA TV, sure the 2 channels I have left with no sub channel are great. Heres what Sunday night football looked like here last weekend:


(click twice for the full size image)

Of course it wasn't that bad when nothing much was happening. In case anyone wonders, PNG's are lossless.

Now as the question why digital downloads aren't taking off:

Part of it is indeed because our internet infrastructure in the US sucks. But the other problem is convenience. Not that many people want to watch a TV show or movie on their computer. Sure there are set top boxes for some services now, but that adds expense. Plus theres the problem of only some titles being available on any given service. Combine all that with the fact that many times digital download costs more than renting a DVD, or indeed a BD, and its not hard to see why its not catching on.

EDIT: Also, the box office money on that list makes me shudder. Hannah Montana movie made over twice as much money as State of Play! The masses are morons.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by lobosrul

As far as HDTV picture quality, most of it is just plain bad. Theres only a few channels on Dish Network that I'll even watch except for sporting events and news (HDNet, HDNet movies come to mind). Most other channels I find myself thinking, I'd rather watch this on DVD. Either the picture is terribly soft or theres annoying snipes all over the place, or its stretched. If the majority of consumers cared about the quality of what they're watching the few of us that do wouldn't have to put up with it. As far as OTA TV, sure the 2 channels I have left with no sub channel are great. Heres what Sunday night football looked like here last weekend:

I don't know what this paragraph is trying to say. Is it really trying to say "I'm throwing pointless unrelated detail at you?"

Also, if you don't know why that data is impressive you need to look at context and history. 1 in 7 of a typical title on Blu-Ray is not the sign of a failing format, when a year ago all but the best titles were 1 in 20.

[lobosrul]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

I don't know what this paragraph is trying to say. Is it really trying to say "I'm throwing pointless unrelated detail at you?"

Also, if you don't know why that data is impressive you need to look at context and history. 1 in 7 of a typical title on Blu-Ray is not the sign of a failing format, when a year ago all but the best titles were 1 in 20.

HDTV: because of a previous post that said viewers will see how great HDTV quality is and rush out to buy a BD player.

Market share fluctuates from week to week, but in mid september last year BD's revenue share was 8% (https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...postcount=625), and this week it is 11% (https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=1982). Not an impressive gain IMO, and where would it be without the BD only re-releases of Gladiator and Braveheart? There was a week in October 2008 where it hit 11% BTW, probably due to the release of the Matrix trilogy on BD.

And don't take my post the wrong way. I'm not saying BD will fail, and right now its the last bastion of really excellent quality video, HDTV is a downright failure. All the reasons for it succeeding make perfect sense to those who actually care about picture and audio quality, but unfortunately I think thats a minority of Americans.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by lobosrul

I don't see why the sales numbers on that chart are so encouraging. Gladiator and Braveheart just had a new BD release but no new DVD release. Only 2 other titles on the list are above 1 quarter of total sales, and one of them is Disney's Earth, which I'm guessing is HD demo material, and a special case of sorts. Most other titles are down around 10%, thats not impressive. The one good thing I would take from that list, is 17 of the top 20 titles are available on BD.

The main reason IMO that BD is suffering is the "good enough as long as its cheap and easy" mentality of today's consumers. Thats exacerbated by the current recession. Look at music downloads, they're still mostly crappy mp3 quality.

As far as HDTV picture quality, most of it is just plain bad. Theres only a few channels on Dish Network that I'll even watch except for sporting events and news (HDNet, HDNet movies come to mind). Most other channels I find myself thinking, I'd rather watch this on DVD. Either the picture is terribly soft or theres annoying snipes all over the place, or its stretched. If the majority of consumers cared about the quality of what they're watching the few of us that do wouldn't have to put up with it. As far as OTA TV, sure the 2 channels I have left with no sub channel are great. Heres what Sunday night football looked like here last weekend:


(click twice for the full size image)

Of course it wasn't that bad when nothing much was happening. In case anyone wonders, PNG's are lossless.

Now as the question why digital downloads aren't taking off:

Part of it is indeed because our internet infrastructure in the US sucks. But the other problem is convenience. Not that many people want to watch a TV show or movie on their computer. Sure there are set top boxes for some services now, but that adds expense. Plus theres the problem of only some titles being available on any given service. Combine all that with the fact that many times digital download costs more than renting a DVD, or indeed a BD, and its not hard to see why its not catching on.

EDIT: Also, the box office money on that list makes me shudder. Hannah Montana movie made over twice as much money as State of Play! The masses are morons.

Off-topic here, but man, that is horrible HDTV quality!!! Is that OTA,Cable or sat? I can tell by the graphics that it is HD but did the game switch to a non HD camera? I've seen that happen before. I thought something was wrong with mine years ago until I realized that the network was switching between HD and SD cameras !!!! Happens in Football more than any sport, baseball has always had the best HD then its a tie between basketball and hockey!

[kefrank]

Pretty much all of the OP's concerns are moot, given that Blu-ray has already established itself, at the very least, as a niche format for enthusiasts and is growing in the casual consumer market as well. It's already beyond the point of "fading away" and has provided a profit boost to studios, filling in some of the gap left by declining DVD sales. Though the home video market is much different today, consider that Blu-ray is already well-beyond the market penetration that laserdisc had and laserdisc was around for many, many years. Even if the market share stopped right where it is today, Blu-ray would still remain for many years to come. There is no point in being concerned at this stage in the lifecycle.

[lobosrul]

Originally Posted by prerich

Off-topic here, but man, that is horrible HDTV quality!!! Is that OTA,Cable or sat? I can tell by the graphics that it is HD but did the game switch to a non HD camera? I've seen that happen before. I thought something was wrong with mine years ago until I realized that the network was switching between HD and SD cameras !!!! Happens in Football more than any sport, baseball has always had the best HD then its a tie between basketball and hockey!

Thats over the air on KOB-TV (1 sub channel) Albuquerque. Sunday Night Football is all HD cameras now. On more static shots (less movement) the picture actually looks quite good. And on my 42" plasma from about 7 ft it doesn't look nearly as bad as a screen cap from a desktop, but its very noticeable.

[Al_The_Strange]

Another issue against digital downloads is the freaking content protection. Most downloads I see are available for a limited time, for a limited number of downloads, and perhaps even a limited number of usages. Might be fine for a few uses on a computer or portable player, but why bother when an optical disc can play the movie indefinitely?

[HD Man]

I think digital downloads will become the popular method for viewing std def matrial, but it won't begin to equal Blu-ray quality. Plus, think about all of the people who have a hard enough time now downloading firmware upgrades, computer updates, etc. I just worry about the introduction of some new "Super Blu-ray" format that would require the purchase of all new equipment/discs. But hey, that's part of the fun of enjoying electronics.

Go back and watch one of the "best" VHS or beta movies, and you will think you need glasses and wonder how you even sat through that!!

[Rhygar]

Off Topic.

Originally Posted by coolmilo

===============================================
Universal Studios, please help Paramount fix Gladiator. I want to buy it!!!
===============================================

Coolmilo, from what I understand Universal did the transfer for Gladiator and Paramount did the transfer for Braveheart. So you want to switch the companies around.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by lobosrul

I don't see why the sales numbers on that chart are so encouraging. Gladiator and Braveheart just had a new BD release but no new DVD release.

you miss the forest for the trees, obviously BD having 97 and 96 % of the market for those titles is because the BD is new and almost no one is interested in buying the DVD any more. the 97/96 are not important, but that old catalogue titles got into the top 10 of movie sales for the week based almost only on BD sales. How often do you think old catalogue titles (even if re-released) make the top 10? It shows 2 things
1) BD owners are willing to upgrade their DVDs to BD (even when some complain about the quality of the BD)
2) That BD has enough marketshare to make a big difference in the list.

Market share fluctuates from week to week, but in mid september last year BD's revenue share was 8%, and this week it is 11%...

let me ask you this, if I sell 10 objects for 30$, that makes 300$ revenue, if I sell 20 objects for 15$ that also makes 300$, 300$=300$, and in revenue it appears as nothing has changed, but in the above example my market doubled.

BD prices have generally fallen from last year also like you mentioned, not to mention, like you pointed out that sometimes box sets can influence $ a lot while units very little, and that any weekly numbers will be influenced by what came out.