Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Teazle

Well ... I think we're getting close to the point where BD in large vols. will be cheaper than DVDs in small vols, despite the fact that hi-def mastering is (or at least has been) more expensive than mastering & encoding for crappy ol' SD. So I think it's scale more than quality at work here.

The way it's going for _some_ titles (action blockbusters), soon it will scarcely be economical to press DVDs -- for some titles it will be a better strategy for the studio to force BD on the consumer, much as DVD was forced on us, title-by-title, over VHS circa 2004.

My prediction is that within 18 months we'll have the first BD "Matrix" i.e. timed BD exclusive of a major blockbuster from WB. It will be painless as the first-week sales for the action genre approach 70% Blu by that time.

I pulled these #s (18, 70) out of my butt but I stand by them anyway as a rough approximation of what I think will happen.

When the DVD version does come out it won't be cheaper than the BD. When asked why, the studios will simply say "Volumes aren't there anymore".

agree that one day studios will stop making DVDs, but until then they will always be cheaper. Warner was selling DVDs in China for 1-2 USD, http://arstechnica.com/old/content/2006/07/7306.ars
I am sure they where still making some $ from it. The issue is replication is extremely cheap, you don't pay 20$ for a BD because of the plastic, that is why some titles can be bought for 10$ and others under 5$ but for the content (the movie that cost millions to make). So as long as they feel they can make more money by also offering the DVD they will and it will be cheaper unless they decide they want to force BD, but at that point I think they will just abandon DVD.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

agree that one day studios will stop making DVDs, but until then they will always be cheaper. Warner was selling DVDs in China for 1-2 USD, http://arstechnica.com/old/content/2006/07/7306.ars
I am sure they where still making some $ from it. The issue is replication is extremely cheap, you don't pay 20$ for a BD because of the plastic, that is why some titles can be bought for 10$ and others under 5$ but for the content (the movie that cost millions to make). So as long as they feel they can make more money by also offering the DVD they will and it will be cheaper unless they decide they want to force BD, but at that point I think they will just abandon DVD.

I agree somewhat. It's not just replication costs at issue though. Distributing any disc in small vols inevitably drives up the unit cost. So due to the nature of distribution for physical I think we really could see the point where DVD cost to consumer matches / exceeds that of BD, at least on select mass market feature film titles. And as you say at that point DVD will quickly be sacked for those movies.

The situation I imagine for say 2013-4 is DVD being virtually withdrawn for titles like the next Nolan Batman movie, i.e. the core of the home video business: big BO earning Hollywood feature films. BD will dominate this central category.

I predict the overall size of home video market will be modestly reduced but (thanks to Blu-ray) not completely tanked, yet BD having "only" c. 40% revenue share due to relatively slow consumer uptake of catalogue on BD and persistence of DVD sales in other categories.

Digital doesn't much feature in my predictions -- my thinking is, if home video market is shrinking mainly due to exhaustion of catalogue sales, a consumer reluctant to rebuy a movie on Blu will not exactly be jumping to buy it as a DL. So those looking to digital to boost home video revenues significantly will be disappointed.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Teazle

I agree somewhat. It's not just replication costs at issue though. Distributing any disc in small vols inevitably drives up the unit cost. So due to the nature of distribution for physical I think we really could see the point where DVD cost to consumer matches / exceeds that of BD, at least on select mass market feature film titles. And as you say at that point DVD will quickly be sacked for those movies.

My understanding is distribution is done by the replicator, (obviouly to the main distribution centers and distributors) but after that, things will obviously be bunched together (actualy they are probably bunched before that), if a BB asks for 5 copies of the DVD and 50 of the BD to the warehouse, they won't be shipped separately, same if a mom & pop orders from a distributor.

Let me ask you a simple question if I buy 20$ online from Futureshop.ca, Amzon.ca or Bestbuy.ca here in Canada I get free delivery so if shipping (and lets face it, I am sure shipping to stores is cheaper) was that onerous then how can they ship that one 20$BD to me for free?

again we are talking small meaningless differences that don't affect the final price. I can buy a movie on day one and pay X$ I can wait a bit and pay Y$<X$ wait some more and it is in the 5$ garbage bin, why is it X, Y and 5? obviously everything else is the same (i.e. it did not cost that much more to replicate it or ship it....) it is priced that way because studios know that the guy that wants it as soon as it comes out is willing to pay more for that and that the person that is waiting for the garbage bin prices won't buy it otherwise, the same here, are you buying BD's? if so, why? because you are willing to pay more because they look at sound better then the DVD, so why would the studio sell it to you at the same price as the DVD? Even if one day BDs will be priced the same as DVD is now, then the DVD price will drop to still be a bit lower , like the 5$ the guy willing to buy the DVD but not the BD is doing that because they are not willing to pay BD prices.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

My understanding is distribution is done by the replicator, (obviouly to the main distribution centers and distributors) but after that, things will obviously be bunched together (actualy they are probably bunched before that), if a BB asks for 5 copies of the DVD and 50 of the BD to the warehouse, they won't be shipped separately, same if a mom & pop orders from a distributor.

Let me ask you a simple question if I buy 20$ online from Futureshop.ca, Amzon.ca or Bestbuy.ca here in Canada I get free delivery so if shipping (and lets face it, I am sure shipping to stores is cheaper) was that onerous then how can they ship that one 20$BD to me for free?

again we are talking small meaningless differences that don't affect the final price. I can buy a movie on day one and pay X$ I can wait a bit and pay Y$<X$ wait some more and it is in the 5$ garbage bin, why is it X, Y and 5? obviously everything else is the same (i.e. it did not cost that much more to replicate it or ship it....) it is priced that way because studios know that the guy that wants it as soon as it comes out is willing to pay more for that and that the person that is waiting for the garbage bin prices won't buy it otherwise, the same here, are you buying BD's? if so, why? because you are willing to pay more because they look at sound better then the DVD, so why would the studio sell it to you at the same price as the DVD? Even if one day BDs will be priced the same as DVD is now, then the DVD price will drop to still be a bit lower , like the 5$ the guy willing to buy the DVD but not the BD is doing that because they are not willing to pay BD prices.

OK, I think we must each mean something different by "distribution" b/c to me very clearly it is not done by a disc replicator. I think that some authoring houses may own their own replication facilities e.g. Sony DADC ???, so there may be some vertical integration there -- is that what you were thinking of? -- but distribution proper is another story.

Examples -- Image doing distribution for Criterion. Vs. WHV doing distribution for themselves. Ultimately due to smaller scale, for Criterion BDs there's an extra middleman (image) between Criterion and Best Buy. This is one reason, attached to scale, the Criterions cost more than Warner Blu-rays. That's all I was referring to.

I agree it should not be a big amount per disc; OTOH there has to be a way to explain why e.g. a Criterion title of a 1960s film goes for $35 when a WHV title of a movie from the exact same period goes for $18 ...


PS. Re: your question, I don't know about postage for online sales; I was thinking mainly of B&M retail.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Teazle

OK, I think we must each mean something different by "distribution" b/c to me very clearly it is not done by a disc replicator. I think that some authoring houses may own their own replication facilities e.g. Sony DADC ???, so there may be some vertical integration there -- is that what you were thinking of? -- but distribution proper is another story.

Examples -- Image doing distribution for Criterion. Vs. WHV doing distribution for themselves. Ultimately due to smaller scale, for Criterion BDs there's an extra middleman (image) between Criterion and Best Buy. This is one reason, attached to scale, the Criterions cost more than Warner Blu-rays. That's all I was referring to.

OK, my misunderstanding, I thought you meant transportation: i.e. getting the BD/DVDs made at the replicator to the store where you buy it, which is why I included stores shipping to my home as my example of why it is minimal. For that the studio gets the orders but usually the replicator is the one that ships the orders.

Now I guess you meant mastering costs i.e. restoring the film, making a digital file, making extras, making the encoding and disk master (i.e. everything pre replicator). If this is what you meant, then it is also minimal, we can eliminate the first three because the same digital master (for film & extras) will be used for the DVD , DL and BD and any other media to be distributed (i.e. if that costs 1M$ and they sell 1M BDs and 1 DVD, that cost will be gotten back from 1M+1 copies sold and not just the 1 DVD). What is left is the encoding and disk master. Now encoding

I agree it should not be a big amount per disc; OTOH there has to be a way to explain why e.g. a Criterion title of a 1960s film goes for $35 when a WHV title of a movie from the exact same period goes for $18 ...

there is
1) Criterion does tend to do a bit more so they might have higher restoration costs
2) Criterion sells movies with small markets (it is one thing to say 20k copies and an other to say 1M BDs and 1K DVDs)
3) Criterion has to pay for the content
4) Criterion has a very small number of titles available to it
5) why must there be a way to explain it? other then that is what Criterion/WHV has chosen to value their product as. I have a client that makes food products sold at the supermarket. For one chain they also make a store brand, in those stores they sell the name brand and store brand, now sometimes there can be small differences between the two, but in this particular case they are 100% identical it is only the packaging, one batch is done for the store brand and name brand, but the name brand is still more expensive at the store.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

5) why must there be a way to explain it? other then that is what Criterion/WHV has chosen to value their product as. I have a client that makes food products sold at the supermarket. For one chain they also make a store brand, in those stores they sell the name brand and store brand, now sometimes there can be small differences between the two, but in this particular case they are 100% identical it is only the packaging, one batch is done for the store brand and name brand, but the name brand is still more expensive at the store.

+1 -- the Criterions are overpriced while some WHV titles (dare I say it) too cheap!

[andyman1970]

Originally Posted by Teazle

+1 -- the Criterions are overpriced while some WHV titles (dare I say it) too cheap!

Criterion overpriced and WHV too cheap? What Warner titles are too cheap? Most in my opinion are overpriced even on the low end due to the quality typically associated with Warner releases. To me it seems as though WHV and all the other studios are rushing titles out now just for a quick profit due to the growing popularity of the format. Criterion on the other had, as I recently discovered, puts more effort into their releases and the ones I've gotten recently thanks to B&N's 50% off sale making the Criterion version worth the typical $39.99 MSRP. Not that I would pay that since Amazon and Best Buy often sale them for around $29.99. I'll definitely be adding the Criterion release of Dazed & Confused to my collection in October. Just remember, you get what you pay for and higher quality cost more.

[bradley4846]

im nervous BD will be discontinued soon.... some of the prices are lower then the DVDs!

i just dont want to buy to many if i know the end of it is coming....

(this is on the newbie board, because people may no more about these low prices then i do)

EDIT: Yah, so i just realized how dumb this post is. Next time i will think before i post...

[madlost1]

Originally Posted by bradley4846

im nervous BD will be discontinued soon.... some of the prices are lower then the DVDs!

i just dont want to buy to many if i know the end of it is coming....

(this is on the newbie board, because people may no more about these low prices then i do)

Yeah like dvd never went down in price. Your kidding with this thread right.

[My_Two_Cents]

Seriously?

[MaCruz]

The lower, the better for all of us. That's positive news for those that haven't jumped on the blu-ray.com bandwagon because some still think BD's are expensive.

[HAMP]

Originally Posted by bradley4846

im nervous BD will be discontinued soon.... some of the prices are lower then the DVDs!

i just dont want to buy to many if i know the end of it is coming....

(this is on the newbie board, because people may no more about these low prices then i do)

I don't get it, if you have the equipment to play the bluray, then you have the equipment to play the DVD's. If(which I don't believe) blus die, and DVD makes some type of comeback, you are not losing anything or having to re-buy equipment to play the DVD's.

So, If blus die, you will be fine. It's not like when VHS died and new players had to be bought, such as a DVD player.

[saprano]

Im sure you would be nervous if the prices were all MSRP too right?

Lock this F'n thread please.

[Beta Man]

By this logic, Televisions aren't going to be sold pretty soon.....

[My_Two_Cents]

Originally Posted by Beta Man

By this logic, Televisions aren't going to be sold pretty soon.....

Conversely, it appears we'll never run out of food or gas...

[stevo4264]

My hope is all Blu ray's will be at 50 cents each........

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bradley4846

EDIT: Yah, so i just realized how dumb this post is. Next time i will think before i post...

Dumb? maybe not, unfounded? absolutely. Yes sometimes when a new title comes out a BD could be cheaper then the DVD or there is not much of a difference. But it is not because BD is doomed, but studios would rather people move away from DVD and they hope that by having a more competitive price (especially in this hard economy) that people will move up.

[swifty7]

Originally Posted by stevo4264

My hope is all Blu ray's will be at 50 cents each........

LOL!! one can only wish but seriously prices for blu's have come down to ridiculous prices. I bought Back to Future trilogy for 15 bucks and some people for 9.99 after coupon from BB.

[HAMP]

Only problem I see with the prices going down, is me trying to buy everything I can without being broke all the time.

[BohemianGraham]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Dumb? maybe not, unfounded? absolutely. Yes sometimes when a new title comes out a BD could be cheaper then the DVD or there is not much of a difference. But it is not because BD is doomed, but studios would rather people move away from DVD and they hope that by having a more competitive price (especially in this hard economy) that people will move up.

Tell that to Steve Jobs.