Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Truewitt]

Originally Posted by prerich

Well, everyone in the business isn't excited about 4K here's one take from Geoffery Morrison's Blog on Cnet http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-33199_7...nt;contentBody

Is he right?

Well, his whole article is founded on a fundamental flaw...that no one will sit at the correct viewing distance from the size TV they own. This assumption is ridiculous. Plus, his whole argument of resolving detail vs. seeing it is silly. The biggest problem I have with lower resolutions is seeing the pixel structure. I can see the pixels on a 50" 1080 TV from 8 feet...not ideal.

[Prox]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Bluray will be irrelevant IF streaming/downloading can offer 25-40 mbps 1080p quality and people suddenly decide they hate collecting movies. Until then, Bluray all the way. Besides i have a backlog of around 300 bluray discs so i will make it last regardless!

I couldn't have said it better myself. Physical media will exist as long as:

1. It offers the highest quality
2. People care about actually owning movies (and being able to watch them 5+ years from now)
3. Internet providers impose bandwith/data usage caps

It is not feasible that all three of these pillars will fall by 2016.
I contend that at least one will still be standing even in 2026.

[Teazle]

1. Roku will be obsolete by 2014

2. OH NOES .. TEH SKY KEEPS FALLING

[vargo]

Originally Posted by Prox

I couldn't have said it better myself. Physical media will exist as long as:

1. It offers the highest quality
2. People care about actually owning movies (and being able to watch them 5+ years from now)
3. Internet providers impose bandwith/data usage caps

It is not feasible that all three of these pillars will fall by 2016.
I contend that at least one will still be standing even in 2026.

Talking about whether it 'exists' or not skirts the issue. Vinyl exists but that doesnt make it any less obsolete.

At some point optical media as a distribution method will account for less than 5% of revenue. I think most would agree that at that point, it can be considered more or less obsolete.

That's quite inevitable. It is simply the way the world is going.

However 4 years is far too soon a prediction. Maybe in 4-5 years digital delivery will account for 50% of home revenue. When we reach that 50/50 point we can start to make more accurate estimates of the timeframe.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by vargo

That's quite inevitable. It is simply the way the world is going.

Considering Blu-ray continues to grow faster than digital media sell-through, it is anything but inevitable.

There is a certain percent of digital fanatics who refuse to believe that physical can co-exist with digital. Why?

At this point I use digital more than Physical. But what I want physical for, digital simply can't give me. It's not a replacement.

*EDIT* It does continue to amuse me that the goalposts keep moving. 4 years ago Blu-Ray would be dead by 2012. Now it's 2012 and it'll be dead by 2016.

[FlipperWasIrish]

Originally Posted by Tibor Lugosi

This guy is delusional.

Not going to happen, as DVDs won't even be gone by 2016.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Considering Blu-ray continues to grow faster than digital media sell-through, it is anything but inevitable.

There is a certain percent of digital fanatics who refuse to believe that physical can co-exist with digital. Why?

At this point I use digital more than Physical. But what I want physical for, digital simply can't give me. It's not a replacement.

*EDIT* It does continue to amuse me that the goalposts keep moving. 4 years ago Blu-Ray would be dead by 2012. Now it's 2012 and it'll be dead by 2016.

Again, you are skirting the issue with your choice of words.

What does it mean to say they can co-exist?

Vinyl co-exists with CD and MP3. VHS co-existed with DVD. The horse-drawn carriage co-exists with motor vehicles. To say that physical media can co-exist with digital distribution....these are weasel words that mean nothing. At some point it will occupy such a small portion of the market that effectively it becomes obsolete.

Regarding growth, vinyl sales are growing faster than digital music distribution in many countries. What does it mean, vinyl is the future? No of course not, it just shows how easily you can twist numbers to suit your point.

It is inevitable that optical media will become obsolete as a distribution format for 1s and 0s and that's simply common sense. It is the way the world is going.

[Trekkie313]

DVD maybe, Blu-Ray definitely not!

[Blu-Benny]

I just can’t imagine a download offering the same PQ/AQ as a physical disc. Not to mention the guy is in charge of a download only medium.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Truewitt

Well, his whole article is founded on a fundamental flaw...that no one will sit at the correct viewing distance from the size TV they own. This assumption is ridiculous. Plus, his whole argument of resolving detail vs. seeing it is silly. The biggest problem I have with lower resolutions is seeing the pixel structure. I can see the pixels on a 50" 1080 TV from 8 feet...not ideal.

You my friend have great vision. I'm actually myopic and wear bifocals !!! I can't see the pixel struture of a 62 inch 1080p picture at 8ft. The real benifit of 4K would be with large screens. I've seen it on this very site - where a person with a 27 inch tv hdtv and they will say they cant tell the difference between that and a DVD. I can tell, I can't bear watching SD channels on my sets, but my wife can - and I have the worst eyes!!!!! What Mr. Morrison is relaying is 4K related to the common man J6P.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Prox

I couldn't have said it better myself. Physical media will exist as long as:

1. It offers the highest quality
2. People care about actually owning movies (and being able to watch them 5+ years from now)
3. Internet providers impose bandwith/data usage caps

It is not feasible that all three of these pillars will fall by 2016.
I contend that at least one will still be standing even in 2026.

I want to agree with you - however a few things can change that:

1. Downloads offer more profits
2. Most people have turned intor consumers of movies instead of collectors
3. Internet bandwith is getting bigger (Fiber to homes ect)

Theses are the reasons I'm worried - especially reason #1 - (Companies are now just looking at the bottom line - the dollar).
I like superior quality - but I'm not a collector - I only buy movies that I want to watch over and over again (that's part of quality too) ....and now there are so few! I only buy what I consider reference titles - the ones I want. I buy movies - just not in the hoards that I've seen some people buy them.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Blu-Benny

I just can’t imagine a download offering the same PQ/AQ as a physical disc. Not to mention the guy is in charge of a download only medium.

Agreed!!!! +10000

[jpthomas27]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Cds still live on ... since what 1980 something. DVDs are still popular even though blu is better in every single way. How can anyone suggest Blus will be gone in a few years... that fella is just stupid.

-Brian

They live, but are on life support!! And just to ensure the subject remains realistic it should be noted that althought CD's were techinically in use during the 80's, they weren't a viable consumer product until the early 90's, and cassetts weren't removed from retail shelves until 93-94. Their longevity has mostly to do with a lack of competition for quite a while. Only recent has digital music really taken off and begun to make CD's a thing of the of the past. Once digital music became a seriouse competitor of CD's the business took a serious nose dive in terms of sales. Many music distributors have begun talking about significantly reducing the numebr of CDs they print and realease. I would expect that catalogue titles become very hard to find in the CD format very soon, and new release and top selling recent release titles begin hitting retail shelves in much smaller quantities.

Having said all that, the two (music CD's and Blu-ray movies) are not neccessarily comparable. There are many things that contribute to each that will make Blu-ray much harder for digital media to replace then CD's. Using what happened to music in a conversation about movies is apples and oranges. They are not the same industry, they do not have the same target demographic, people do not have the same expectations of music as they do movies, the capability to down load a song and a movie are quite different, and so on...

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by prerich

I want to agree with you - however a few things can change that:

1. Downloads offer more profits
2. Most people have turned intor consumers of movies instead of collectors
3. Internet bandwith is getting bigger (Fiber to homes ect)

Theses are the reasons I'm worried - especially reason #1 - (Companies are now just looking at the bottom line - the dollar).
I like superior quality - but I'm not a collector - I only buy movies that I want to watch over and over again (that's part of quality too) ....and now there are so few! I only buy what I consider reference titles - the ones I want. I buy movies - just not in the hoards that I've seen some people buy them.

caps, that's all I'm saying.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by vargo

To say that physical media can co-exist with digital distribution....these are weasel words that mean nothing. At some point it will occupy such a small portion of the market that effectively it becomes obsolete.

No offense, but as weasel words go, 'at some point' have to be right up there.

At some point we're going to cure cancer, wean ourselves from fossil fuels and the Chicago Cubs will only be one year away from a World Series win.

So what?

[RBBrittain]

I have a Roku (a gift from a software company), but IMO their product will be obsolete before BD. Roku's niche has been invaded by everything from smart TVs to gaming consoles to, yes, even BD players.

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Not like the CEO of a streaming hardware company would have any biases at all in his public statements......LOL

[blueshadow | Kosty]

Think about it, what's a better consumer value for the same price ... a Blu-ray player that plays CDs, DVDs Blu-ray Discs and also streams content or a Roku box that costs about the same but only streams.....

Unless consumers can easily see the Roku streaming only box is a better value because it costs less or streams better, many consumers will continue to see Blu-ray players as better value.

[Musashi]

Guy from Roku's just the latest fudflinger of the week.

CDs are far from life support; They continue to represent 50+% of audio revenues.

As I see it physical media has more profit. Digital media requires keeping servers powered on and has a smaller audience due to connection requirements.

Terjyn's right too: FUDflingers keep moving these arbitrary goal posts when the years pass and blu-ray turns out more popular than ever.

Blu-ray will continue to be one of if not the strongest outlet for home video for many decades if not indefinitely.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by RBBrittain

I have a Roku (a gift from a software company), but IMO their product will be obsolete before BD. Roku's niche has been invaded by everything from smart TVs to gaming consoles to, yes, even BD players.

Agreed - my HTPC has replaced most of my sources and does everything a Roku can. SmartTv's will replace Roku before BD ever becomes obsolete.