Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by AnamorphicWidescreen

I echo the concern about 4K, especially since Blu is a long way from becoming mainstream. As I mentioned in a recent post in the Retail/Shopping thread, it's unfortunate that Wal-mart (possibly the biggest retailer in the U.S.) seems to be supporting Blu even less than they were even a year ago; when I go into my local store they have very little Blu product...

This is no surprise to me - I was surprised when WalMart sold Blu in the first place. WalMart may be the largest physical retailer, but they sell mainly to consumers who are looking for the absolute lowest price regardless of quality. That is not an appropriate venue to sell Blu-ray, IMO.

Originally Posted by AnamorphicWidescreen

On a related point, as a collector/fan of movies/TV shows on Blu, it's irritating that there is still so much out there that hasn't been upgraded to Blu...to the point that if you want to get some of this material, you'd have to pay an arm and a leg for an OOP DVD.

Unfortunately and in spite of collectors who really care about the entire history and breadth of cinema and TV, Blu-ray is a hit-driven medium. If we look at sales (of both DVD and BD) for 8/28, the #1 title is "The Amazing Spiderman 2" and the #2 title, "Divergent" sold only 15% of what Spiderman sold. The #10 title, "NCIS Season 11" sold less than 6% of what Spiderman sold. And the #20 title, "Good Will Hunting" sold only 3% of what Spiderman sold. So imagine how little an obscure niche title sells, although most of those titles are sold with a "long tail" sales cycle in mind.

Originally Posted by AnamorphicWidescreen

In conclusion. the article is correct in the concern about the viability of 4K...If Blu is taking forever to be adopted by the general public, then what chance does 4K have?!

There's an article in Home Media this week claiming that 4K won't have substantial impact for ten years. But I agree with you because there was a clear and distinct quality improvement in BD over DVD (although not as much as DVD over VHS), but there's a much lesser quality improvement of 4K (at least in terms of what we've seen so far) over BD. However, that can change if the final 4K format does include expanded color space, as proposed.

But having said that, BD year to date still only has a 30.9% U.S. dollar share of physical media and a 20.7% unit share. So 4K is going to be under 5% for many years to come unless it's co-packaged with a regular BD.

[ultraflexed]

If 4k blue-ray disc are to thrive the following will need to happen.

1). Affordability
You cant ask consumers to upgrade every couple years and ask them to spend 2-300 on and upgrade that consumers will yet again have to spend at least 2-4k on a uhd tv just to use the player.

2). Compatibility
To upgrade should not mean throw all your dvd's and blue ray disc away, the blue-ray 4k player should be compadible with dvd, blue-ray dvd, and 3d-blue-ray along with 4k.

3).CONTENT!!!
you can people to buy a UHD TV then a 4k blue-ray player and only offer a handful of titles, movies. When the 4k player hits the market it will need to make a immediate impact as far as content, how about 200-300 4k titles apon release that would be meaning full.

4). 4k Tv's will have to fall in price just one more time. I bought my 65inch brx-900a for 2400 that a great price, image that for a just 2 thousands flat then even the most conscious. Buyers will make the purchase.

5). Hollywood would needs to have had a block buster summer with 4k movies people would want to see at home (avengers 2: age of ultron) to enhance marketing.

If the following can be condinated with right strategy then 4k blue-ray will get off to a great head start

[AnamorphicWidescreen]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

This is no surprise to me - I was surprised when WalMart sold Blu in the first place. WalMart may be the largest physical retailer, but they sell mainly to consumers who are looking for the absolute lowest price regardless of quality. That is not an appropriate venue to sell Blu-ray, IMO.

I completely get what you're saying here. However, if Blu is ever going to rise up above being nothing more than a niche or semi-niche format (and I think it's safe to say that those of us who frequent this board want that to happen), then IMHO it needs to make a greater showing at stores like Wal-mart. I was there last week & they did have more Blu's than I had seen previously, which is a good sign. They even had some older ones this time around, i.e. Dances with Wolves, Platoon, etc.

Re: the prices, Wal-mart does not necessarily have great prices on Blu, though I guess that could all depend on your area. The one near me doesn't have any Blu's in the $5 bins (or any other bins, for that matter), and their new movies on Blu range from $15 - $20. You can sometimes find older Blu's on sale, but in my experience those times are few & far between....

That all being said, maybe Blu will always be a niche format....

It seems that the physical media (DVD'/Blu's) in stores is, in general, shrinking anyway. So, who knows, maybe 10 years from now you won't even be able to go into a store and buy a Blu/DVD; you'll either have to stream the material, or buy the Blu/DVD online....

[mredman]

Originally Posted by AnamorphicWidescreen

I completely get what you're saying here. However, if Blu is ever going to rise up above being nothing more than a niche or semi-niche format (and I think it's safe to say that those of us who frequent this board want that to happen), then IMHO it needs to make a greater showing at stores like Wal-mart. I was there last week & they did have more Blu's than I had seen previously, which is a good sign. They even had some older ones this time around, i.e. Dances with Wolves, Platoon, etc.

Re: the prices, Wal-mart does not necessarily have great prices on Blu, though I guess that could all depend on your area. The one near me doesn't have any Blu's in the $5 bins (or any other bins, for that matter), and their new movies on Blu range from $15 - $20. You can sometimes find older Blu's on sale, but in my experience those times are few & far between....

That all being said, maybe Blu will always be a niche format....

It seems that the physical media (DVD'/Blu's) in stores is, in general, shrinking anyway. So, who knows, maybe 10 years from now you won't even be able to go into a store and buy a Blu/DVD; you'll either have to stream the material, or buy the Blu/DVD online....

this has nothing to do with blu rays or DVD's at all. Fact is "stores" are shrinking and people buy more online now including movies

[Blu Titan]

As far as Bill Hunt, he has an opinion like many, but he is not an industry insider or anything to that effect. Just from the tone of his article, it looks like BH is not getting many screeners or anything else from the studios.

Some good points, but not a very balanced or accurate article...

[Dotpattern]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

As far as Bill Hunt, he has an opinion like many, but he is not an industry insider or anything to that effect. Just from the tone of his article, it looks like BH is not getting many screeners or anything else from the studios.

Some good points, but not a very balanced or accurate article...

Which of his points specifically are not accurate?

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Dotpattern

Which of his points specifically are not accurate?

When he writes about Blu-ray releases, he mentions issues with them as if every release was problematic. Very far from the truth, probably, 95% of all Blu-ray releases offer a form of upgrade over the DVD version....Just about 100% of new home video releases offer higher PQ and AQ in Blu-ray over the equivalent DVD version.

Sure there won't be a ton of catalog releases on 4K but there will be some major titles released. More importantly, new home video will be available in 4K Discs and collectors will have the opportunity to own those movies in a physical format...there will be plenty of those. 4K BD assures the longevity of physical media and acknowledges that there's a viable market for it.


Like I said not a very accurate or balanced article. Opinions are not facts and that is all his writing is an opinion...take it for what it's worth.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

When he writes about Blu-ray releases, he mentions issues with them as if every release was problematic. Very far from the truth, probably, 95% of all Blu-ray releases offer a form of upgrade over the DVD version....Just about 100% of new home video releases offer higher PQ and AQ in Blu-ray over the equivalent DVD version.

Sure there won't be a ton of catalog releases on 4K but there will be some major titles released. More importantly, new home video will be available in 4K Discs and collectors will have the opportunity to own those movies in a physical format...there will be plenty of those. 4K BD assures the longevity of physical media and acknowledges that there's a viable market for it.


Like I said not a very accurate or balanced article. Opinions are not facts and that is all his writing is an opinion...take it for what it's worth.

Bill hunt has become pretty irrelevant in the last 8 years and its coming out on his blog. He's always tended to be rather self entitled but now its becoming more and more obvious

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by wormraper

Bill hunt has become pretty irrelevant in the last 8 years and its coming out on his blog. He's always tended to be rather self entitled but now its becoming more and more obvious

He gets release info from the usual studio contacts that handle that kind of stuff...that is all. No need to create a separate thread about an individual's opinion...that is what his blog is for .

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

He gets release info from the usual studio contacts that handle that kind of stuff...that is all. No need to create a separate thread about an individual's opinion...that is what his blog is for .

Yup

[Dotpattern]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

When he writes about Blu-ray releases, he mentions issues with them as if every release was problematic.

Hmmm, that's not how I read it. To me, he's asking legitimate questions - questions/complaints that have been brought up time and time again on these very boards.

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Very far from the truth, probably, 95% of all Blu-ray releases offer a form of upgrade over the DVD version....Just about 100% of new home video releases offer higher PQ and AQ in Blu-ray over the equivalent DVD version.

I could be wrong, but I don't think he ever suggests there isn't an upgrade over the DVD version. I think we're all fans of Blu-ray here and can all agree on the PQ and AQ benefits over DVD. I don't think Bill Hunt is suggesting otherwise.

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

4K BD assures the longevity of physical media and acknowledges that there's a viable market for it.

Bill Hunt seems to agree with you here when he says he hopes 4K will keep physical media alive and "wants to believe."

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Like I said not a very accurate or balanced article.

And this is where I was hoping you would provide more point-counterpoint.

[Blu Titan]

And, before anyone gets all upset..I am presenting my PERSONAL opinion which I have the right to do. I am not an employee of the site and I do not have any financial interest in the site.

I do love this communty .

[Dotpattern]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

And, before anyone gets all upset..I am presenting my PERSONAL opinion which I have the right to do. I am not an employee of the site and I do not have any financial interest in the site.

I do love this communty .

Your opinion is completely respected!

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Dotpattern

Hmmm, that's not how I read it. To me, he's asking legitimate questions - questions/complaints that have been brought up time and time again on these very boards.



I could be wrong, but I don't think he ever suggests there isn't an upgrade over the DVD version. I think we're all fans of Blu-ray here and can all agree on the PQ and AQ benefits over DVD. I don't think Bill Hunt is suggesting otherwise.



Bill Hunt seems to agree with you here when he says he hopes 4K will keep physical media alive and "wants to believe."



And this is where I was hoping you would provide more point-counterpoint.

I did that already, his piece is mostly gloom and doom. I have no interest in spending any more of my time, which will be put to better use watching movies...Like I said, a personal rant, nothing more. You guys go ahead and have some fun with it .

[mredman]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

I did that already, his piece is mostly gloom and doom. I have no interest in spending any more of my time, which will be put to better use watching movies...Like I said, a personal rant, nothing more. You guys go ahead and have some fun with it .

I agree. What is your opinion on regular Blu Ray and 4K. Will 4K make regular Blu Ray stronger or weaker. Or do you see it as i see it. It will make DVD become weaker and it will make Regular Blu Ray even stronger because of DVD decline ?

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Dotpattern

Which of his points specifically are not accurate?

The point that the majors have to thrive so that there is massive interest from the consumers for 4K Blu-ray. Actually, despite the fact that DVD was such a success story, its growth was primarily driven by approximately 10% of hardcore collectors, not the 'interested masses'. (I encourage you to double check the veracity of the above statement. It should not be too difficult as it is something ex-Universal president Craig Kornblau has publicly stated). Some food for thought there.

I see no reason to believe that there needs to be one dominant format for the industry to be enthusiastic about the market. Actually, precisely the opposite is true -- the time when one format, or form of delivery, would be mass and dictate how the market grows is gone. In the future the market, and the business, will be fractured. The volatility of digital sales have made it absolutely clear -- though there are still 'analysts' who draw comparisons and look at Blu-ray as a format that should have matched DVD's market performance. So, anyone predicting that in the next 10-15 years the market will be "digital only" (streaming/downloading) has a very broken crystal ball.

4K Blu-ray: It isn't going to be a "successor" of Blu-ray, it is going to be an extension of Blu-ray. You will see combo-packs just like you saw combo-packs for 3D Blu-ray releases. More importantly, 2K and 4K content will peacefully coexist. Anyone imagining a world where the studios will suddenly standardize output and have everything coming through the 4K pipe simply has not been paying attention. For many, many, many films there are definitive 2K masters already -- end of the line. There is no more money to do anything better. Period.

Exclusive content: Maybe Bill isn't aware, or has simply forgotten, but exclusive content has been given away to retail partners for many years before Blu-ray came to the market. Actually, it was a very common practice with CD/Vinyl in Europe and Japan.

Early digital HD releases worry me as much as PPV "premieres" do. In other words, they don't. Again, the future of the market will be one of many options for the consumer, not of digital only platforms. (This is something I actually would love to comment on again 10-15 years from now).

Bill is making the mistake that the majors are the industry. Wrong. The majors are only a part of the industry. There are other smaller players that belong there as well. I am just stating the obvious.

Sales of 4K equipment: Sales have been less than impressive because the content has been missing. And one other point that seems to evade people: Offering a puck with pre-loaded content isn't a huge incentive. In fact, it is not an incentive at all. Bring 4K Blu-ray and offer consumers the ability to physically own the content they like and then judge. Until there is 4K content for the consumer to purchase on a disc, people should not judge. The HDDVD/Blu-ray war should have made this quite obvious.

Finally, "1080p streaming content being good enough for most people" is like implying that cheap burgers are good enough for most people and therefore quality restaurants aren't needed. The consumer likes options. And plenty of variety.

People analyzing the market and making predictions really need to reconsider the logic and tools they have been using to do so. Comparing the market movement and the forces that operate on it in 2014 to those of 1999/2002 seems like an awfully bizarre practice to me.

Pro-B

[Canada]

One of the reasons why physical media is not going to go any where is my 1TB hard drive for my PVR died and I lost every thing. I would hate to think if that happened to all my movies I have over four hundred at either 25 or 50 gigs, I have no idea how many TB's that would be but I would hate to have to download over 400 movies again, do you know how many bloody hrs I would spend in front of my computer just finding those films.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Canada

One of the reasons why physical media is not going to go any where is my 1TB hard drive for my PVR died and I lost every thing. I would hate to think if that happened to all my movies I have over four hundred at either 25 or 50 gigs, I have no idea how many TB's that would be but I would hate to have to download over 400 movies again, do you know how many bloody hrs I would spend in front of my computer just finding those films.

no kidding. it's a PAIN unless they go to streaming only, as downloads are NOT fun to deal with.

physical media is going strong by all accounts and will go strong for quite a while. that is unless you go to places like hometheaterforum.com or the vudu forums lol

[Bishop_99]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

[Show spoiler]The point that the majors have to thrive so that there is massive interest from the consumers for 4K Blu-ray. Actually, despite the fact that DVD was such a success story, its growth was primarily driven by approximately 10% of hardcore collectors, not the 'interested masses'. (I encourage you to double check the veracity of the above statement. It should not be too difficult as it is something ex-Universal president Craig Kornblau has publicly stated). Some food for thought there.

I see no reason to believe that there needs to be one dominant format for the industry to be enthusiastic about the market. Actually, precisely the opposite is true -- the time when one format, or form of delivery, would be mass and dictate how the market grows is gone. In the future the market, and the business, will be fractured. The volatility of digital sales have made it absolutely clear -- though there are still 'analysts' who draw comparisons and look at Blu-ray as a format that should have matched DVD's market performance. So, anyone predicting that in the next 10-15 years the market will be "digital only" (streaming/downloading) has a very broken crystal ball.

4K Blu-ray: It isn't going to be a "successor" of Blu-ray, it is going to be an extension of Blu-ray. You will see combo-packs just like you saw combo-packs for 3D Blu-ray releases. More importantly, 2K and 4K content will peacefully coexist. Anyone imagining a world where the studios will suddenly standardize output and have everything coming through the 4K pipe simply has not been paying attention. For many, many, many films there are definitive 2K masters already -- end of the line. There is no more money to do anything better. Period.

Exclusive content: Maybe Bill isn't aware, or has simply forgotten, but exclusive content has been given away to retail partners for many years before Blu-ray came to the market. Actually, it was a very common practice with CD/Vinyl in Europe and Japan.

Early digital HD releases worry me as much as PPV "premieres" do. In other words, they don't. Again, the future of the market will be one of many options for the consumer, not of digital only platforms. (This is something I actually would love to comment on again 10-15 years from now).

Bill is making the mistake that the majors are the industry. Wrong. The majors are only a part of the industry. There are other smaller players that belong there as well. I am just stating the obvious.

Sales of 4K equipment: Sales have been less than impressive because the content has been missing. And one other point that seems to evade people: Offering a puck with pre-loaded content isn't a huge incentive. In fact, it is not an incentive at all. Bring 4K Blu-ray and offer consumers the ability to physically own the content they like and then judge. Until there is 4K content for the consumer to purchase on a disc, people should not judge. The HDDVD/Blu-ray war should have made this quite obvious.

Finally, "1080p streaming content being good enough for most people" is like implying that cheap burgers are good enough for most people and therefore quality restaurants aren't needed. The consumer likes options. And plenty of variety.

People analyzing the market and making predictions really need to reconsider the logic and tools they have been using to do so. Comparing the market movement and the forces that operate on it in 2014 to those of 1999/2002 seems like an awfully bizarre practice to me.

Pro-B

Excellent points pro-bassoonist. I know that I will take a while before I ever upgrade my equipment to 4K, but as soon as they would start releasing new Blu-ray movies in a 2k/4k combo pack, those will be the version I would buy. I really look forward to seeing the BDA move forward with 4k.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by AnamorphicWidescreen

It seems that the physical media (DVD'/Blu's) in stores is, in general, shrinking anyway. So, who knows, maybe 10 years from now you won't even be able to go into a store and buy a Blu/DVD; you'll either have to stream the material, or buy the Blu/DVD online....

Physical retail is generally evaluated on sales per square foot, although exceptions are made for products that get people into stores. In the past, media was a way to get people into the store and then hopefully, they'd buy something else more profitable.

If BD no longer generates enough sales per square foot and it's not what gets people into the store, then retail won't carry it. There have also been reports of Best Buy reducing space for physical media.

My hope is that if all the big box stores give up selling physical media that there would be a resurrection of the independent record/video store. I've noticed in NYC that there seems to be more small record stores in Manhattan and a relatively large record store (Rough Trade) has opened in hipster Williamsburg, Brooklyn, although all these new stores specialize in vinyl and/or unknown alt bands, not the big popular stuff. Amazon is so dominant (and absurdly high rents in places like New York City) that an independent video store may be an impossibility, but you never know.