Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[krazeyeyez]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

NO, the world does not revolve around you
R&T talked about streaming a BD while watching it to a home server over wi-fi. brettallica he would be nervous doing that over wi-fi, Marquoz who I quoted said there is no issue DL large files because there is error correction and tools to help with such matters. That is why I quoted Marquoz and I said that the issue was not the filke size but the tasks at hand (i.e. copying the data to the server while streaming to a device and watching the movie at the same time.



it might be what you meant, but not what you said,


on the other hand your new post shows a total lack of understanding, do you think any collector buys for the sake of having useless trinkets taking up space? It is the benefits of ownership that we like (and if you have 300+ BDs then you should understand). It is the fact that unless my house burns down, chances are my collection is safe (let’s face it, even if someone brakes in they might steel equipment but they won’t spend hours putting my movies in a box to take them with them), it is the fact that I can see what I want when I want. How many times did you go to the rental place and “there is no more copies of that movie because it is old and no one rents it and shelf space is needed” or you wish a movie would be made available (like song of the south which is not PC enough for Disney to release it on DVD or BD) it is about my nephew coming over and asking “can I borrow Scooby Doo: the mystery begins” and being able to say yes. It is all about having complete control and watching what you want when you want and making sure it is safe when you are not watching it. Now I know you will say when you DL to own how is it different? Tell me what legal service that exists now lets me legally back up my movies, lets me lend them out, what guaranty do I have films won’t be “dropped” and could be ported as tech evolves so I can keep all the movies I bought even if I don't ever watch them again?

no need to be an ass lol, last time you said "he meant, or he said" it WAS in regards to me and you were wrong, so just clarifying.

Actually my buddy just lost over 100 blu-rays in his last break in BECAUSE they were easy to grab and easy to sell at a high price, $7-8 a title adds up quick. It happens, although RIGHT NOW it is far more likely to have a HDD fail. But then again i am talking future development.

NOW! At this moment none exist, but i thought the discussion was titled the FUTURE! Thats what i don't get about your arguments, i am not saying discs will disappear, just that downloads are not the big evil screwed up crazy idea you think, they may be now, but limitations don't last forever.

You adopted Blu-Ray even though HDTV is a fraction of the market, now how many people own computers today as opposed to HDTV, i would say far more. What does it matter what the physical container is? thats is all i am saying.

I do understand the collectors impulse, but in my case i collect the movie, i am not big on which insert is used, or omg my slip cover is creased, i care about the content, nothing more, nothing less. As was said look at all the companies pursuing this line of technology and ask yourself who is crazy, me and all those companies for thinking that this is not to far around the corner and could offer every thing a physical disc offers and more, or you who says not possible EVER lol.

To me you sound like HDDVDers did saying Blu-Ray would fail out of spite for all the money you invested in BLU just like me. However i see downloads as an addition to not a replacement for BLU-Ray

[Grumpz]

I still find it hard to believe that people actually assume that movie collectors "require" or "need" something physical.


Of course it doesn't exist, but I'll bet both of my thumbs that if starting Dec 1st 2009, you were able to download new release blu's for $15 bucks and catalogues for $7.50, in under an hr, you'd all scrap your physical collection. Of course it would have to include some sort of gaurantee of the data, but since there's is no physical item to replace, a lifetime license wouldn't even be unreasonable.

The only reason you may not like it now, is because it doesn't offer any benefit.

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by ouflak

despite the fact that many here have lived through and even led the way through the most recent paradigm shift in media; the change to optical disks.

Shifting to discs wasn't THAT big of a change. They were still individual units inserted into a player, and optical discs weren't without precedent in the form of CD-ROM, audio CDs, and laserdiscs.

Even shifting to Blu-ray is a minor shift.

Changing to a download-only form for purchased media is an unrealistic hurdle any time soon, not just for technological reasons, but also for market support reasons. Most people just won't like getting behind that kind of thing. I'd say it'll take around a generation at least before downloads could become a dominant force on the market, assuming they can get around the technological limitations by then (not to mention establishing a standard design for distribution and playback).

Originally Posted by ouflak

What percentage of junior high school kids in American today have ever even played a music CD? 50%? 30%? 10%? Less?

Actually, it's probably close to, if not, 100%. I'm only a few years out of high school myself. My little sister is herself a senior.

I know people that age use CDs. Maybe not as much anymore, but they did in the recent past, and FURTHERMORE:

music's direction in the digital market is not indicative of anything relating to movies.

You can't say "look at music" when talking about movies, because movies are NOT music. The reasons that music caught on in the digital-only arena have little bearing on things people demand from movies. People accept poor quality because their cheap headphones mask the difference, yet at the same time, they spend major money on screens which are growing in average size all of the time. People also enjoy being able to play all of their music on a portable device that they keep with them all of the time, but how many people would buy a poor quality digital copy of a movie just so they have something to watch on their iPod in addition to their TV at home? Most would just buy the better edition of it, then use less-than-legal methods to get the digital copy if they want it that bad.

Originally Posted by binarymelon

I don't know about that. People are fine with their music being distributed digitally.

Not all of them. They still produce plenty of CDs and vinyl! And look at books. Completely technologically obsolete, but people still prefer them. They've been obsolete technologically for DECADES, but people still buy them.

And again, MUSIC IS NOT MOVIES!

Originally Posted by robinandtami

Nope.... and I don't think he's going to get a blu-ray player either

The industry will force it in the future. I'd say that within a few years, it'll be impossible to find a DVD player in Best Buy. They'll all be Blu-ray players.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

it is about my nephew coming over and asking “can I borrow Scooby Doo: the mystery begins” and being able to say yes.

ew... you own that?

How is it? My morbid curiosity wasn't enough to overcome the pricetag on this one.

Originally Posted by krazeyeyez

Actually my buddy just lost over 100 blu-rays in his last break in BECAUSE they were easy to grab and easy to sell at a high price, $7-8 a title adds up quick.

Had them all in a book or something? Most burglars wouldn't bother to box up hundreds of CASES and leave with boxes full.

Maybe a dude with 10 BDs would get them stolen, but I have confidence that a thief breaking into my place wouldn't be walking out of here with my 500+ collection. It'd be worth quite a bit of money to him, but he'd be better off stealing any number of other things in my house that would be of similar value, but far easier to steal.

And maybe you guys live in a worse neighborhood than me, but I've never once in my life worried about a break-in, I've never known anyone who's house was burglarized. And you guys know 8 Mile, the titular road in that Eminem picture? I live a half mile north of it.

Originally Posted by krazeyeyez

As was said look at all the companies pursuing this line of technology and ask yourself who is crazy, me and all those companies for thinking that this is not to far around the corner and could offer every thing a physical disc offers and more, or you who says not possible EVER lol.

Not many companies are backing downloads as a serious means of distribution. What is there, iTunes and Amazon? Fully digital distribution has a future in the rental game as seen in Netflix's success in the area, but people buying movies don't seem as interested.

Originally Posted by krazeyeyez

However i see downloads as an addition to not a replacement for BLU-Ray

How about see digital copies as an EXTENSION then? The movie on disc is ALREADY digital. It just so happens that a high capacity optical disc is the BEST way to deliver the content, as current technology limits other digital methods. But even without that limitation, people are STILL unlikley to give up physical media just because most people prefer physical media.

Rather than argue for DOWNLOADS that won't work, argue to get your digital copies a more efficient way: by being allowed legally to rip the BDs that are already available. But heck, I'd wager that most people who purchase media and are of the mindset to heavily prefer pure digital media would be more likely to illegally rip their collection than to purchase subpar downloads. Honestly, I know plenty of you ALREADY do this with DVDs!

[krazeyeyez]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

EDITED TO SAVE SPACE

Yeah but you gotta figure a thief walking out with a HDTV they could sell illegally for $500 or a bag of movies worth the same, sold legally to some used place, which is less obvious. I actually don't know how they bagged or boxed them up lol, but they did, and i know he had over 100 as at least 85 of them i sold to him myself (went a little crazy during the BOGO's before HDDVD called it quits ) They also got his ps3 and a number of other small things, but luckily left his two XBR's alone. Neighborhood isn't too bad but the "hood" is definitely expanding.

It was my understanding that a larger number then you stated of corporations are pursuing means of starting download content, whether they have started yet or not, but i could be wrong, and knowing the net maybe just rumors.

Fully agree on the being able to "backup" my content, and if that means pounds of DRM to stop piracy i can get behind that. I am generally careful with my discs, but i am not the only one handling them, and well i am not always 100% sober either (love me some natty light). Stuff happens, and i have unfortunately found this out the hard way with many a TV season box set. The most reason being my Gold Box of SG-1 all 10 seasons that had a couple episodes as casualties that needed to be replaced with a whole season for 1 episode. (hey now their is an idea for downloads as well, although not exactly a huge demand for that exact situation i am sure).

I morally find nothing wrong with backup for my stuff and think it is messed up how the laws are today, but at the same time cannot blame them. But because it is illegal the programs for doing this are shady type stuff, and in the short period of time i looked into it (during the SG-1 thing which i was pissed about) i could not find one that gave me a quality copy i could be happy with. Sorry if that bothers anyone, but i actually purchased season 7 of SG-1 3 times, and had to try to avoid a 4th.

While i don't have an IPOD to take advantage of the video, i do like the digital copies i have got so far with my blu's, came in mighty handy on my laptop last vacation, and do not understand why they can't take that a step further to offer a program that both rips a bit4bit, and applies DRM to the rip to protect the rights holders so they can allow us to back up all are old DVD's as well.

I myself won't take advantage of Downloads anytime soon, i just think the idea has potential. For now and i would guess for a long time to come, Blu-Ray is more then i need. I just could see this as an option i would like in addition to hard media purchasing, renting, etc...

EDIT: One other thing downloads could be a plus for is limited run type stuff, for instance a show that a company makes a limited run of DVD's for, not knowing how well they will sell, and/or discontinues production. They could just have that file up for download rather then lose the small amount of sales they otherwise would have gotten. Only reason i thought of this, is i have been kicking myself for sometime for not getting Farscape on DVD, and could only find it on places like EBAY for gouging prices, although they announced not to long ago another run of DVDs

[binarymelon]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Music is not the same beast as movies. Music portable and small, and the problem with things like CDs is people do not necessarily like the entire CD.

Nobody is going to say "Man, how about the Chapter 23 of Independence Day, I'll gladly pay 2$ to own that one chapter."

You're right about people possibly not wanting an entire album, but how is a music CD or file any more portable than a movie file or a dvd? The media is only as big as the device you're playing it on and most devices play both now.

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Digital Downloads with no physical alternative are a long ways away, if for no other reason than to appease people who want the physical alternative. Can we at least wait until MP3s pass CDs in revenue before declaring "The future of Digital Downloads is here!"?

I'm not saying digital downloads will happen soon, but I do feel it will eventually and technology will be better and our media needs met better because of it (if we can escape brutal copyright protection methods and laws). I think that video media file sizes will continue to out pace download speeds for at least another 15-20 years, but in maybe 7 years a larger portion of the market will be fine with streaming 1080p even if there is something better available.

Also you have to realize that illegal downloads represent a portion of the market not represented by revenues and Apple is the number #1 music retailer in the US (without having to force the entire album on the consumer). This report states that 1/3 of music sold in the US was downloads last year and the physical music market is hemorrhaging consumers.

[Kyo28]

I also believe that in the not-so-near future, servers and bandwiths will allow companies to deliver HD content and BD quality to customers over the Internet.

However, to me the question is not whether or not they'll be able to do it or when. For me, it's a matter of what I want ... and call me old-fashioned, but I still love to be able to touch my collection.

Even if digital downloads can offer lossless audio and full 1080p picture quality like BD's, as well as all the extra's it would all remain pretty 'virtual' ... stocked somewhere on one of my hard disks.

I love the fact that I can physically browse through my collection, that I can have a look at the cover, front and back, that I have a disc with artwork I insert, that I have a booklet, a slip cover and what not. Personal preference, sure, but as long as physical media is around, I'll prefer it over digital distribution.


Another important aspect will be the legal implications of digital downloads. When I buy a BD or DVD, I know I can watch it as many times I want for as long as I want. I own the movie.

With digital distribution, I fear we will move from ownership to a lease system, where you're only allowed to download a movie a limited number of times and where perhaps you can only use it until the timer runs out. If your hard disk fails and you aren't entitled to an additional download: tough titty!

So for me it's a matter of personal preference as well as legal implications. For that, I will always prefer physical media.

[MOONPHASE]

Originally Posted by Kyo28

I also believe that in the not-so-near future, servers and bandwiths will allow companies to deliver HD content and BD quality to customers over the Internet.

However, to me the question is not whether or not they'll be able to do it or when. For me, it's a matter of what I want ... and call me old-fashioned, but I still love to be able to touch my collection.

Even if digital downloads can offer lossless audio and full 1080p picture quality like BD's, as well as all the extra's it would all remain pretty 'virtual' ... stocked somewhere on one of my hard disks.

I love the fact that I can physically browse through my collection, that I can have a look at the cover, front and back, that I have a disc with artwork I insert, that I have a booklet, a slip cover and what not. Personal preference, sure, but as long as physical media is around, I'll prefer it over digital distribution.


Another important aspect will be the legal implications of digital downloads. When I buy a BD or DVD, I know I can watch it as many times I want for as long as I want. I own the movie.

With digital distribution, I fear we will move from ownership to a lease system, where you're only allowed to download a movie a limited number of times and where perhaps you can only use it until the timer runs out. If your hard disk fails and you aren't entitled to an additional download: tough titty!

So for me it's a matter of personal preference as well as legal implications. For that, I will always prefer physical media.

True words right there and also if you have a disc you can just pop it in at a friend's house and then you and your friend can watch the movie together.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Kyo28

With digital distribution, I fear we will move from ownership to a lease system, where you're only allowed to download a movie a limited number of times and where perhaps you can only use it until the timer runs out. If your hard disk fails and you aren't entitled to an additional download: tough titty!

There's nothing to keep that from being done in the future with physical media as well. Just as a player can remember where you left off in a movie, it can be made to remember how many times you have played a movie. It's done now with digital copies that exist on hard media. I think however it is highly unlikely to happen in either format.

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by Kyo28

Another important aspect will be the legal implications of digital downloads. When I buy a BD or DVD, I know I can watch it as many times I want for as long as I want. I own the movie.

With digital distribution, I fear we will move from ownership to a lease system, where you're only allowed to download a movie a limited number of times and where perhaps you can only use it until the timer runs out. If your hard disk fails and you aren't entitled to an additional download: tough titty!

So for me it's a matter of personal preference as well as legal implications. For that, I will always prefer physical media.

Essentially this. Once we get to talking about digital distribution, then we quickly wade into a sea of proprietary formats, DRM, etc. Not that I have a problem with those things, per se. But, in order to enjoy your purchased content, you need to have that continued, third-party support for it. If a provider goes out of business or simply abandons that aspect of its business without a replacement vendor picking up the slack, then your content will quickly become just wasted space on a hard drive.

The success of iTunes lies in Apple's perceived stability as company. People take solace in the idea that Apple, iTunes services, and the associated proprietary formats (.m4v, etc.) will last. But I think they have proven to be the exception moreso than the rule. So going forward, physical media still offer the convenience and usability of (basically) open standards: any disc on any player. And as mentioned before, loaning a movie out to a friend or family member is a no brainer with a physical disc, but with a digital download--such a prospect is either just not feasible at all, or easily convoluted.

[Elvispookie]

Original Poster here...

For those who claim that digital downloads are right around the corner and will be as great as Blu Ray.. you all know that the internet is running low on data transfer space right now, right? Many articles have been written on our horrible infrastructure. One that would require billions to upgrade.

While AT&T might be stretching it a little to say we will be out of space next year.. they still make their points:

http://news.cnet.com/ATT-Internet-to...3-6237715.html

other links:

http://news.cnet.com/ATT-Internet-to...3-6237715.html

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518405,00.html

if you think our infrastructure can handle your futuristic needs for HD movies with lossless audio.. you also might think we will have flying cars next year.

Back to my original point.. downloads will be the next thing.. but they will not be the norm in this generation... there are too many people that do not adopt change or adapt either. Couple that with a bad setup.. just isnt going to happen..... yet.

[Sponge-worthy]

The Telecoms simply do not have the financial incentive to expand broadband access in the same way that they did in expanding wireless access. Of course the question of whether the private sector has really served us well in providing Internet infrastructure as opposed to whether the public sector should take a more aggressive role in the area starts to bleed into the taboo realm of politics.

[krazeyeyez]

Originally Posted by Kyo28

I love the fact that I can physically browse through my collection, that I can have a look at the cover, front and back, that I have a disc with artwork I insert, that I have a booklet, a slip cover and what not. Personal preference, sure, but as long as physical media is around, I'll prefer it over digital distribution.

LOL i get so much crap for this because i really enjoy it myself, i keep all my movies in our walk in closet, and i usually here a "you alright in there" long before i return with a couple movies. When no one is here i can be in there for dang near an hour but i am a freak in finding exactly what i want to watch at that moment, hence my geekly large collection.

Someone said something about being able to sort your catalogue online which appeals to me, but whether that has anything to do with the content i doubt. Using a third part system like what i use to have my collection posted on in my sig, would actually work for that.

I keep hearing the limits on the internet, and while i DO fully believe that, my internet provider has been offering more and more download speeds without any kind of caps at a steady pace. Not to mention how intertwined the net is with every facet of technology and business these days, downloads might not be feasible anytime soon, but i find it hard to believe the private or public sectors would allow us to hit a wall on the internet. No matter how much money it costs, they will make it happen as a lot of revenue would be lost if left unchecked.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by krazeyeyez

I keep hearing the limits on the internet, and while i DO fully believe that, my internet provider has been offering more and more download speeds without any kind of caps at a steady pace. Not to mention how intertwined the net is with every facet of technology and business these days, downloads might not be feasible anytime soon, but i find it hard to believe the private or public sectors would allow us to hit a wall on the internet. No matter how much money it costs, they will make it happen as a lot of revenue would be lost if left unchecked.

I agree. Some would have said that the internet is the most important invention since the wheel... and it would be very hard to argue against that view. Anyone who realizes how much it has advanced since the day 40 years ago that two computers first "spoke" to each other would be hard pressed to ever put an arbitrary limit on what the internet is capable of. 40 years is blink in the eye in regards to human invention... and the progress made during that blink has been phenomenal and completely unforseen by the people who first worked on it.

[krazeyeyez]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

I agree. Some would have said that the internet is the most important invention since the wheel... and it would be very hard to argue against that view. Anyone who realizes how much it has advanced since the day 40 years ago that two computers first "spoke" to each other would be hard pressed to ever put an arbitrary limit on what the internet is capable of. 40 years is blink in the eye in regards to human invention... and the progress made during that blink has been phenomenal and completely unforseen by the people who first worked on it.

Wonder if they would feel something along the lines of those that created the A-bomb, when they hear kids today quoting wiki as fact

[Sponge-worthy]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

Anyone who realizes how much it has advanced since the day 40 years ago that two computers first "spoke" to each other would be hard pressed to ever put an arbitrary limit on what the internet is capable of.

I can put an arbitrary limit on it...it's called bits/second.

[madmojo]

I'm not too worried about it, as long as I still have physical media to go along with the downloads. I don't like downloads and such. Heck, even Hulu is gonna be charging money next year. I HATE having things the moment I want them. I like the waiting, the anticipation of not having something for a while, but without something actually being there, I'd feel let down. A file is a file to me, and not worth much. Everyone has files.

I know all physical media will be gone in 20 years, but I can hope that some sort of physical media sticks around at least for those of us who need to feel like we actually own something. Records are still around for collectors, and always have been. Sure not every album gets put on the format, but the more popular ones do.

Besides, with all this web neutrality stuff going on right now, it's possible that digital downloads could go the way of the Dodo.

Sorry all, just airing out my nervousness and disappointment at the future as a whole.

[Elvispookie]

Originally Posted by ryan69969

I can put an arbitrary limit on it...it's called bits/second.

amen brother. I dont think enough people here can see this. Just because it looks like technology is moving at incredible rates.. we will hit a wall.

For those that need a better picture.. imagine if our forefathers created our sewer systems using 3 inch copper pipes instead of the enormous piping under every city. That would work great when there were 12 people in your town.. once you became a city however.... eww.

I read an article recently that said the amount of internet traffic (uploads and downloads) on YouTube in 2008 was equal to the amount of traffic on the entire internet in the year 2000!!! That is staggering. Dont know where people think we are going to get the extra piping from.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Elvispookie

amen brother. I dont think enough people here can see this. Just because it looks like technology is moving at incredible rates.. we will hit a wall.

For those that need a better picture.. imagine if our forefathers created our sewer systems using 3 inch copper pipes instead of the enormous piping under every city. That would work great when there were 12 people in your town.. once you became a city however.... eww.

I read an article recently that said the amount of internet traffic (uploads and downloads) on YouTube in 2008 was equal to the amount of traffic on the entire internet in the year 2000!!! That is staggering. Dont know where people think we are going to get the extra piping from.

The difference between your analogy and reality is huge. Human waste is a physical thing that can only be broken down so far and it's going to require a pipe of a certain physical size to move it. The ways we move data, on the other hand is tremendously more flexible and constantly changing, from the earliest discs that held mere bits, to today's thumbdrives that can hold hundreds of gigs. From the earliest baud modems that transmitted over dedicated lines and couldn't even be measured in bits per second, to optical lines that can transmit hundreds of bytes per second..... all in just forty years. Where were tv's forty years ago? A hundred hears ago? Or how about movie technology forty years ago? A hundred years ago. Internet technology has outpaced movie technology tenfold in one third the time.

[krazeyeyez]

Originally Posted by Elvispookie

amen brother. I dont think enough people here can see this. Just because it looks like technology is moving at incredible rates.. we will hit a wall.

For those that need a better picture.. imagine if our forefathers created our sewer systems using 3 inch copper pipes instead of the enormous piping under every city. That would work great when there were 12 people in your town.. once you became a city however.... eww.

I read an article recently that said the amount of internet traffic (uploads and downloads) on YouTube in 2008 was equal to the amount of traffic on the entire internet in the year 2000!!! That is staggering. Dont know where people think we are going to get the extra piping from.

Using your analogy though, would we just get told you gotta hold it, or would someone upgrade those pipes before we became the land of the free and home of the eww i got poo on my shoe. Internet is no longer a nice thing to have, it is a NECESSITY for business as a whole on the world scale. Sure that demand is expanding at a staggering rate and as we know the human race likes to wait till the o crap it broke point to fix it, but someone WILL fix it.

[Elvispookie]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

The difference between your analogy and reality is huge. Human waste is a physical thing that can only be broken down so far and it's going to require a pipe of a certain physical size to move it. The ways we move data, on the other hand is tremendously more flexible and constantly changing, from the earliest discs that held mere bits, to today's thumbdrives that can hold hundreds of gigs. From the earliest baud modems that transmitted over dedicated lines and couldn't even be measured in bits per second, to optical lines that can transmit hundreds of bytes per second..... all in just forty years. Where were tv's forty years ago? A hundred hears ago? Or how about movie technology forty years ago? A hundred years ago. Internet technology has outpaced movie technology tenfold in one third the time.

Unfortunately robin I disagree.. the wiring that is used by your ISPs can only handle so much. It is not an endless portal that can expand as more people use it. If you read an earlier post (page 4) I provided some links to articles referencing that we are running out of space on this wiring. The data throughput can only go so far. Thus my analogy. Our forefathers who laid down the sewer realized that these small towns could grow and thus gave us huge piping. The ISPs who routed all this wiring around your town did it when??? about 15 - 20 years ago. Do you really think they thought the internet would need so much space for data transfer? Sure they did.. and they gave us what they thought we needed.. unfortunately no one knew about HD and huge data packets.

Read this AT&T link:

http://news.cnet.com/ATT-Internet-to...3-6237715.html

first paragraph says it all.