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Originally Posted by krazeyeyez
@anthony P - anything but blu-ray huh, i know you probably got a download chip on your shoulder thanks to the FUD of red fanboys, but dang, seek help brother.
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no just as tired by the BS and FUD of DL is inevitable fanboys. Like
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All i am saying is downloads will happen
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Hell Star-Trek looks pretty dang good streamed off HULU in HD, and that's free
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for free, maybe it is good enough. But free does not make a market. When BD came out Netflix was charging the same, because there actually is a market for BD rental, Netflix decided to charge more for the Priviledge of getting a BD instead of a DVD, now you can stream for free, will netflix have that for ever? No, eventually, if people uses it, they will charge and if not it will be dropped. That is the reality of the world, companies can’t work on free samples, but all your arguments for DL being inevitable are based on it, The DSP will give you content for free, the ISP will give you unlimited BW and DL capacity for free. But I am a fanboy because I am not dumb enough to buy into that theory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by krazeyeyez
to take a lesson from your avatar
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No one says you said in the next 1-2 years. That is why, for example I brought up flying cars, permanent moon bases, interplanetary/stellar flight, pills instead of food and robots. As things people thought at some time would be more then prevalent by now. Each one ha the same issue with your comments. You assume tech will move much faster then it does and you forget to take everything into account. Now the old adage hindsight is 20-20, but why where those predictions made and why did they not come true.
Flying cars: highways and bridges where being build like crazy, flight was taking off like mad with many “daredevils” building/having their own planes and commercial travel which was more like chauffer travel for the rich was taking off, as well as helicopters that took off up and down. Why did it seem to make sense at the time? It would not need the same infrastructure, flight was the cool tech and cars where old hat. In a way it did come true flight is now common and most people have flown, but the mistake is that flight needs a lot more control then cars (look at airport control towers) and does not work well in tight spaces (i.e. imagine bumper to bumper traffic in the sky)
Moon bases and interplanetary/stellar flight: It was the cold war, the US wanted to prove it was better then the USSR and vice versa, both where spending a lot of money to get to the moon, technology was moving fast. What happens, once someone reached the moon, and there was nothing there, it did not matter any more, the focus and the money left space travel and went to other endeavours.
Pills: women’s lib was new and women where working having a lot less time for working, TV dinners where new and needed little time to prepare, space travel was just starting and astronauts where drinking tang and eating dehydrated foods, Science where starting to understand the make up of foods (carbs, fats….). They though food would become simpler to prepare and if tech continued that way it would soon become pills, but what they missed is that we might eat to live but eating is a sensual pleasure and texture and taste is extremely important. Instead of moving in that direction (boring crappy pills) food did become more “prepared” but also in getting the max pleasure for the mouth.
Robots: automation was new in factorize and advancing fast, it brought down the cost and they are much better at repetitive jobs. People thought they would not only become the factory “slaves” but also make their way to our homes for all the jobs too tedious for us. What happened? For factorize it has continued to progress and at a relatively fast pace, but chores around the home are not that simple and individualistic, you also have the issue of cost, companies that get a robotic arm that replaces 10 people and does the job 5x as fast sees the benefit of paying a lot of money for it, on the other hand a person in the house might like to do the chore but is not willing to pay what the development cost will be. Also for home you have the “uncanny valley” to contend with (i.e. something like an automated welding machine won’t elicit a response because it will look like a machine, but at a certain point we will start to anthropomorphise them and then if they don’t look good enough they make people uncomfortable). So what happens we have a lot more machines in the home (dishwashers…) but they are dedicated to a task “real” robots that do all the chores are no where near becoming reality.
Let me put it a bit differently, if I ask you to tell me to predict what will happen to you tomorrow, you will most likely be able to give me an accurate and precise description with extremely high probability, for example I will still be single, I will still have no children (except if an old GF informs me otherwise), I know what project and client I will be working with (except if an other client has an emergency or I get fired or something really wrong with my health) and I know I will be here checking the forum after supper (and obviously if I die maybe all those will be wrong). Few exceptions that are extremely drastic, on the other hand if the same question was asked for in a month or a year or 10 years, and to a large extent the same is true for tech. Many techs are worked on that don’t really make it (look at Beta, at DIVX-which is a precursor to DL in a way, HD DVD…) and then you have techs that never even launch (how often have we heard Holographic disks are right around the corner, how long was Toshiba telling us for a few years SED TVs are the ultimate display and will be out soon before they finally abandoned it….
A few of the obvious issues with DL being inevitable is this
1) “movie” tech advances a lot as well, they started as silent, then B&W then academy, then wide screen now more and more movies are 3D
2) “home movie” tech advances and each generation needs to offer a lot more, we had nothing but what was on TV, then VHS came out which meant we can see it when we want and as often as we want, then DVD which offered better quality, 5.1 sound, convenience…. Then BD better quality, 7.1 lossless sound, fancier extras….
3) Eventually everyone will have the necessary BW and capabilities to DL movies, I know you are not talking today, but only 25% of people have any access to the internet, the most optimistic wishes are 50% by 2015, you give yourself as an example, but you fail to realise that you are not looking at the bottom tear of what your ISP has to offer in high speed, more then 50% and probably 60% will fall in that category, that is the category (for all the world) that needs to be a hell of a lot higher and the back end built up enough to handle it, also if there are max usage levels (at the lowest tears) because that will determine if it is convenient. Also, let’s be realistic, especially for streaming but also for DL to watch later, how much extra space there is, could you do 2 at a time because some at least two people want to watch something different?
4) People want to DL, let’s face it the issue with DIVX was that people did not want to have to “call home” every time they wanted to watch a film. Now DL might not be as bad (at least you don’t need to tie up a line for a few seconds) but you keep on talking about all the marvellous things we will be able to do (make 50 copies to disks and USB sticks for archiving, sharing and backups)….. but then when asked why can’t we do it now your answer is always the same, “it just is not, but it could be”, DVDs, BDs, and DL available now has restrictive DRM for a reason, the trust from the content providers, for obvious reasons, is not there. That won’t change and on the other side the trust from consumers won’t change either. I don’t care if I can’t move the content from my disk, but I don’t care for them to know where and when I see a movie.
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you seem to see them as stagnant for the next 20 years. How about some middle ground. They will advance and they will become more appealing then they are now, and while you may understand compression, and codecs, and bitrates, and yada yada, J6P will understand, hey its a new form of VOD cool. I just think this has room for development, and could see it being something very appealing in the near future. 
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