Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[oppopioneer]

The actual bluray disc put into the bd player offers superior PQ than streaming it. Netflix is no where close to bluray disc PQ. Bluray discs still outperform HD cable and satellite tv in PQ too. What's the point in downloadable online content when you can get hundreds of movies with Comcast HD, Verizon Fios, Direct TV and Dish Network for a couple bucks a movie?

[Musashi]

Originally Posted by Rob71

And allow me multiple free downloads in case of HDD failure. Oh and speaking of HDD failure, imagine re-downloading all 300 of your HD movie files... Got any free time?

True that. Takes long enough to DL one movie, let alone do a collection restore.

Some of the drawbacks to DL are similar to those of the old Circuit City DIVX format. Think about how Disney puts things on moratorium. With downloads, they'd have an easier time forcing not just a halt of new sales, but of watching the movie at all. I remember hearing that a book was stripped off of everyone's Kindle due to a legal snare. I don't mind self-contained DRM, but strings like those are unacceptable.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Rob71

And allow me multiple free downloads in case of HDD failure.

Actually I subscribe to a music download services that allow you to re-download tracks as long as your account remains active.

Oh and speaking of HDD failure, imagine re-downloading all 300 of your HD movie files... Got any free time?

If someone was really concerned, the answer is simple: backups.

[Muscleduck]

I think after Blu-Ray, there will be other physical formats. People just don't want downloadable content.
I think the next step in high def,when super HDTV or whatever it is called is here (with the 22.2 sound), we'll buy movies on some kind of flash memory. Most likely SDHC cards it's only a matter of time before they make affordable DS cards with 1TB or more capacity.
BD will be around for another 10 years at least I think. Especially because BR can have a maximum of 8 layers, making discs of 200GB!
Streaming and download services will never entirely take over I think. I'm one of those people who love to have something physical when they buy a game, movie or CD. A nice case with nice artwork, maybe a slip cover. And what about limited/collector's editions? If DLC takes over, they will cease to exist.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by blu2

If someone was really concerned, the answer is simple: backups.

So instead of just buying the Blu-ray, download a 30+ gig file and burn it to... a Blu-ray disc. Ummm... Ok.

[tron3]

People will always want the hard media. See the article in my signature line.

I figure a holographic disc will be next in 3" capacity. Will they call it blu-ray? Who knows.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by partridge

Music moved to downloads easily because they are small files that you listen to.

The rest of your post was good, but I just had to take issue with this since it tends to lead others into making dumb claims. How can you say "Music moved to downloads easily"? I agree that it is easier for the consumer (right even if you had 100Mbps it would take 40 minutes to DL a 30GB HD movie) but music moving from CD to DL is still happening but has not happened yet. Even though itunes came out January 9, 2001 at this point in time consumers are still buying more CDs then DL now the more optimistic think it might happen this year that sales reach parity (50/50) but other estimates go all the way to 2012. It has been one of the most painfully slow adoption ever.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by blu2

If someone was really concerned, the answer is simple: backups.

for music, that can work where a 50GB BD can probably hold probably anyone’s collection, but for BD when a collection could be 50TB it is hard and gets expensive to back it up

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Rob71

So instead of just buying the Blu-ray, download a 30+ gig file and burn it to... a Blu-ray disc. Ummm... Ok.

Hard drive backup!

The original poster was talking about 15 years in the future, when it's certainly possible that a 50TB drive won't cost any more than a 2TB drive today. For those who like optical, the largest optical discs will certainly be huge by that time as well.

It wouldn't suprise me though if "purchases" were just in network storage without local copies of everything.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by blu2

Hard drive backup!

The original poster was talking about 15 years in the future, when it's certainly possible that a 50TB drive won't cost any more than a 2TB drive today. For those who like optical, the largest optical discs will certainly be huge by that time as well.

the only issue is that the farther you go in the future the more everything changes. An uncompressed short movie is 1TB the EE LOTR movies would be beyond 2TB and that is for BD specs and just video (i.e. 1080p, same colour palet...) if you are talking 4K then you need 200GB, if you want 32 bit colour you need more…. just because a 50TB can most likely hold my BD collection today, it does not mean that it will be anywhere near enough for what I will want in 15 years.

It wouldn't suprise me though if "purchases" were just in network storage without local copies of everything.

I would never accept that. That is just renting. What happens when they decide to pull a movie because it is not PC any more, or they want to save on HDD space, or there is an internet issue....

[Blu-ray Fanatic]

Lets not even talk about whats after blu-ray. We're not at the next step yet. Plus I want blu-ray to last another 20 years or so because its making tremendous progress.

[Blu-ray Fanatic]

Also I don't have all the movies I want on blu-ray yet.

[partridge]

The fact that we're discussing this is a sign of the times; no sooner has something hit the shelves than industry "experts" start talking of it's downfall and replacement; competing with each other to see who turns out to be right!

I love technology, but the companies making this stuff need to slow down; consumers can't afford to continually update their home entertainment kit. I'm convinced this is why 3D at home is going to be painful for the industry; most of us have only recently picked up our 1080p HD sets!!

If blu-ray is suffering, it's precisely because of scare mongering tactics by rival firms who want us to adopt their format instead. At the end of the day it's as much all about sales and getting our money as it is about creating new technology.

Apple have the right idea, they release updates annually, while everyone else seems to be pushing something new every other month; it makes me hesitant to buy into some of this tech because I know it will be out of date within 6 months, leaving me wondering if my new phone, or whatever, will still be supported a year after I buy it.

Right now Blu-Ray is the ultimate home entertainment medium, and long may that continue!

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by blu2

It wouldn't suprise me though if "purchases" were just in network storage without local copies of everything.

I hope people are smart enough not to support this. If you do not have a physical copy, you are at the whim of whoever provides you your "copy". Like the recent Kindle fiasco. People woke up one morning and a book was gone. Too bad if you were in the middle of reading it.

[kurtlingle]

One thing to consider is how the change in "presentation" will affect the need for larger media.

So if the next thing after 3D is Holographic movies, perhaps they will need a TB for one movie? Who knows?

So downloads (could possibly) work now for HD (though they absolutely stink from NetFlix = 5MB/sec) they may still be unrealistic if a new presentation comes about.

Blu-ray might not be big enough for long movies made to be 3D (like KK or LOTR in 3D) since 3D takes up extra bandwidth. Imagine if some other way of presenting this comes about?

[partridge]

We'll have to wait and see, but I must say I'm quite happy to enjoy the 3D experience in the cinema and watch a 2D version at home. No movie should only be good because it's in 3D!

File size is the big problem for digital downloads though; a tv programme in the UK did a comparison between Apple tv and blu-ray. Basically, the blu-ray user was able to visit a shop, buy his film, get home and watch it before the Apple DL version had finished! And of course the quality was better and he got the extras too

No worries about hardware failure either; if your player breaks, buy another one, it doesn't affect your movie collection

[Hard Nard]

Neural Implants!

[Pondosinatra]

They'll come out with Green-Ray and everyone will dump all their blu's and rebuy them in the new format.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Rob71

I hope people are smart enough not to support this. If you do not have a physical copy, you are at the whim of whoever provides you your "copy". Like the recent Kindle fiasco. People woke up one morning and a book was gone. Too bad if you were in the middle of reading it.

Agreed that is a risk. Another approach is the a user stores their purchases on 3rd party network storage.

We're already at a point where one cableco is about to deploy network DVRs.

http://www.lightreading.com/document...site=lr_cable&

[partridge]

As a slight aside, the only thing missing for me is the quick, easy and legal way to take a purchased DVD and make the content available on portable devices like a PSP or smartphone.

If there was some way I could put a DVD or blu-ray into a PS3 and choose a "copy to PSP" option, all above board, that would be superb! Similary some way to move it to a smart phone now that many of them have decent size screens.

That's the missing element for me, I like my media on disc, but I'd like to be able to take it with me to watch wherever I am. Currently the only way to do this is by dubious means...