Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[headcheese_bbq]

Originally Posted by DVDave

Physical Media is going to be around for a long long time folks.

Just when it looks like streaming/digital media is about to overcome the market, the paradigm will shift again.

I'm talking 4k or higher.

The bandwidth infrastructure cannot stream the massive amounts of data required for those resolutions. Not for decades. Not until the entire infrastructure of the internet is overhauled. Blu-ray will go away but a new format will inevitably replace it, one that can store terabytes of data to provide the highest resolution and quality for videophiles. Until then, compressed digital media will be biting at it's heels but always be lagging behind.

I could not have put it better myself. Great and TRUE input.

[Deadset]

Originally Posted by Rob71

Ultraviolet is supposedly the new download model that will take over where Digital Copy left off. "They" basically store your movies for you for free(for now) and give you access to them via your player, PC or whatever. Every Warner BD release(just new releases I believe) will have them this year supposedly, so it's basically a free copy that you can get access to from anywhere. I believe there will be tons of people using this feature by next year, but it will be the free copies that come with their physical copy, not purchased copies. And if that's the case how long will our access to "our" films remain free? For this model to work long-term, they will need people to buy the file not the disc, and I just don't see that happening.

http://www.uvvu.com/

Interesting post Rob. I fail to see where in their business model a profit is made if you backup your physical copy to this site? Maybe advertisements? Cost per gigabyte of storage? Don't get me wrong, I like the premise, but the cost must be included in the purchase price of the Ultraviolet media.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by Deadset

Interesting post Rob. I fail to see where in their business model a profit is made if you backup your physical copy to this site? Maybe advertisements? Cost per gigabyte of storage? Don't get me wrong, I like the premise, but the cost must be included in the purchase price of the Ultraviolet media.

For it to work long-term, they have to sell titles independent of the "free" ones that come with a disc purchase. And this

Up to 6 family members – whether they’re around the house or out and about – can access your family media collection using customizable individual preferences.

just seems like a system that is set up to lose money. Just imagine. Me and 5 of my closest friends, err "family", pool our money to purchase titles for "my" collection.

[Malik True]

Originally Posted by DVDave

Physical Media is going to be around for a long long time folks.

Just when it looks like streaming/digital media is about to overcome the market, the paradigm will shift again.

I'm talking 4k or higher.

The bandwidth infrastructure cannot stream the massive amounts of data required for those resolutions. Not for decades. Not until the entire infrastructure of the internet is overhauled. Blu-ray will go away but the new format will inevitably replace it be streaming. one that can store terabytes of data to provide the highest resolution and quality for videophiles. Until then, compressed digital media will be biting at it's heels but always be lagging behind .

Decades Dave? Decades, twenty plus years c'mon Dave! To grab a line from Vader "Your lack of vision is disturbing". In 1991 VHS was at it's peak, Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo were the video games of choice. Sega Saturn had not even debuted never mind the original playstation. Better yet take a walk down memory lane for computer tech in 1991 as see how faaar tech has come in just 20 years.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by Malik True

Decades Dave? Decades, twenty plus years c'mon Dave! To grab a line from Vader "Your lack of vision is disturbing". In 1991 VHS was at it's peak, Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo were the video games of choice. Sega Saturn had not even debuted never mind the original playstation. Better yet take a walk down memory lane for computer tech in 1991 as see how faaar tech has come in just 20 years.

How long was VHS on the market? When did DVD debut? And it's still going. Twenty years isn't that hard to believe really.

[DVDave]

Originally Posted by Malik True

Decades Dave? Decades, twenty plus years c'mon Dave! To grab a line from Vader "Your lack of vision is disturbing". In 1991 VHS was at it's peak, Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo were the video games of choice. Sega Saturn had not even debuted never mind the original playstation. Better yet take a walk down memory lane for computer tech in 1991 as see how faaar tech has come in just 20 years.

Yes, decades. The internet, as it currently exists, cannot sustain the streaming of terabytes of data per user per ISP for 1 lossless movie. First, the entire pipeline needs to be overhauled and deployed, processing power and networking on personal PC's also must evolve to handle the capacity requirements we are talking about for lossless resolutions. Streaming, in its current existence is lossy and compressed and nowhere near the quality of HD that Apple, Netflix and other make the claims they do. Any true videophile can tell the difference between lossless and lossy. It will be decades before you will see streaming lossless 4k or higher resolutions. I probably won't even see it in my lifetime.

[Deadset]

Originally Posted by Malik True

Decades Dave? Decades, twenty plus years c'mon Dave! To grab a line from Vader "Your lack of vision is disturbing". In 1991 VHS was at it's peak, Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo were the video games of choice. Sega Saturn had not even debuted never mind the original playstation. Better yet take a walk down memory lane for computer tech in 1991 as see how faaar tech has come in just 20 years.

First of all...it's I find your lack of faith disturbing.

Secondly. I've been into DVD buying for 15 years and still purchase the occasional disc.

So a few decades isn't out of the question.

[headcheese_bbq]

Originally Posted by Deadset

First of all...it's I find your lack of faith disturbing.

Secondly. I've been into DVD buying for 15 years and still purchase the occasional disc.

So a few decades isn't out of the question.

Thank god at least some people pay attention to the accuracy of quotes...

[headcheese_bbq]

Originally Posted by DVDave

Yes, decades. The internet, as it currently exists, cannot sustain the streaming of terabytes of data per user per ISP for 1 lossless movie. First, the entire pipeline needs to be overhauled and deployed, processing power and networking on personal PC's also must evolve to handle the capacity requirements we are talking about for lossless resolutions. Streaming, in its current existence is lossy and compressed and nowhere near the quality of HD that Apple, Netflix and other make the claims they do. Any true videophile can tell the difference between lossless and lossy. It will be decades before you will see streaming lossless 4k or higher resolutions. I probably won't even see it in my lifetime.

I'm a networking major...he speaks the truth.

[Deadset]

Originally Posted by headcheese_bbq

thank god at least some people pay attention to the accuracy of quotes...

vader_sq.jpg

[headcheese_bbq]

Originally Posted by Deadset

Attachment 29313

Thats what happens to people who misquote the original star wars trilogy.

[Malik True]

Originally Posted by DVDave

Yes, decades. The internet, as it currently exists, cannot sustain the streaming of terabytes of data per user per ISP for 1 lossless movie. First, the entire pipeline needs to be overhauled and deployed, processing power and networking on personal PC's also must evolve to handle the capacity requirements we are talking about for lossless resolutions. Streaming, in its current existence is lossy and compressed and nowhere near the quality of HD that Apple, Netflix and other make the claims they do. Any true videophile can tell the difference between lossless and lossy. It will be decades before you will see streaming lossless 4k or higher resolutions. I probably won't even see it in my lifetime.

Dave we are the minority, the majority does not care about none of what's in bold type. Furthermore neither you or I know what's going to be developed in the next five years to render your point about be able to sustain copious amounts of data, potentially moot. Hence the reason why I asked you take a trip down tech memory lane...

Originally Posted by Deadset

First of all...it's I find your lack of faith disturbing.

Secondly. I've been into DVD buying for 15 years and still purchase the occasional disc.

So a few decades isn't out of the question.

Deadset first, the squirrel photo was funny as hell. EXCELLENT. Second, I know what Vader stated but using faith instead of vision did not fit what I feel Dave lacked. He lacks vision in what could happen within the next 5-7 years let alone 10.

[DVDave]

And you obviously have no vision at all if you must resort to petty insults and putting people down to make your point.

[trekdude]

The original question was will "home media become as obsolete as CDs..." I think most of us would say No.

But I firmly believe over the next 5-8 years that customers will increasingly want streaming, downloads and other options without a physical disc. Netflix is already a driving force. Physical blu-rays will still be sold, but the market share will continue growing then start to shrink. Many customers want convenience more than high quality video

And yes, buying moves and storing them on a remote server is coming. Its already happening with music and Google and IBM are pushing the industry in that direction.

Bottom line, most consumers are not like us. Most people are far less interested in 1080p video and HD audio. They just want to watch a movie. 9-year-olds are already watching them on their ipod and phones.

I will continue to buy and rent blu-rays until something better comes along.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by trekdude

But I firmly believe over the next 5-8 years that customers will increasingly want streaming, downloads and other options without a physical disc.

Faith is an interesting thing. Some 30 years ago a few of America's greatest directors believed that by 2000 there will be flying cars.

Originally Posted by trekdude

Netflix is already a driving force.

Hardly. Netflix have been hyping themselves as driving force. A few former HDDVD supporters turned streaming/downloading evangelists have joined them. Fact: There is no hard financial data proving that Netflix are a driving force. Even their own selective data about usage also does not support such a notion.

Originally Posted by trekdude

Physical blu-rays will still be sold, but the market share will continue growing then start to shrink. Many customers want convenience more than high quality video.

Let's see how far the market share would grow, and then worry about whether or not it will start shrinking.

Originally Posted by trekdude

And yes, buying moves and storing them on a remote server is coming. Its already happening with music and Google and IBM are pushing the industry in that direction.

Yet the biggest albums of last year sold better on CD. With other words, coming and happening are two very different things.

Originally Posted by trekdude

Bottom line, most consumers are not like us.

Most consumers are not active downloaders either.

Originally Posted by trekdude

Most people are far less interested in 1080p video and HD audio.

You know, one of the biggest arguments the HDDVD crowd had gravitated around most people.

Originally Posted by trekdude

They just want to watch a movie. 9-year-olds are already watching them on their ipod and phones.

Hardly. Example: Kids loved Disney's films during the 70s and 80s and wanted to own them even on an expensive format such as VHS. Kids will continue to want to own them 20-30 years from now...and most certainly not stored on Ipods.

Originally Posted by trekdude

I will continue to buy and rent blu-rays until something better comes along.

I've collected all of the formats that the industry has supported. Blu-ray is the best one ever created, and honestly do not see another "better" mass format replacing it. Yes, I am well aware of the 10+ years history switch, but I think that people simply do not realize the potential Blu-ray has as far as longevity is concerned.

Pro-B

[financially stable]

Alot of people live in rural areas, thus not having access to the proper speed for streaming/downloading media content.

[micks_address]

Great post, i think blu-ray has the potential for huge longevity. I cant see 4k becoming the norm in the home for a really long time.... would you notice the difference between 1080 and 4k on a 42" screen?

downloading and HD by Satelite is great.. but i still prefer full HD with lossless sound.. i think we're a long way from getting that over streaming..

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Faith is an interesting thing. Some 30 years ago a few of America's greatest directors believed that by 2000 there will be flying cars.



Hardly. Netflix have been hyping themselves as driving force. A few former HDDVD supporters turned streaming/downloading evangelists have joined them. Fact: There is no hard financial data proving that Netflix are a driving force. Even their own selective data about usage also does not support such a notion.



Let's see how far the market share would grow, and then worry about whether or not it will start shrinking.



Yet the biggest albums of last year sold better on CD. With other words, coming and happening are two very different things.



Most consumers are not active downloaders either.



You know, one of the biggest arguments the HDDVD crowd had gravitated around most people.



Hardly. Example: Kids loved Disney's films during the 70s and 80s and wanted to own them even on an expensive format such as VHS. Kids will continue to want to own them 20-30 years from now...and most certainly not stored on Ipods.



I've collected all of the formats that the industry has supported. Blu-ray is the best one ever created, and honestly do not see another "better" mass format replacing it. Yes, I am well aware of the 10+ years history switch, but I think that people simply do not realize the potential Blu-ray has as far as longevity is concerned.

Pro-B

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Malik True

I will say it again most folks don't care if the picture they see is in HD, they want convenience.

That may well be but obviously a significant portion of the market does care about those things. Under your model will that segment just go away or will suppliers just stop meeting their demands?

Auto makers won't stop making sports cars simply because most people won't buy them. Japanese restaurants won't close simply because most people can't stand sushi. Blackberry (or Apple, for that matter) isn't going to shut their doors simply because their customers are a minority.

Why do you expect this market to be any different?

[Malik True]

Originally Posted by DVDave

And you obviously have no vision at all if you must resort to petty insults and putting people down to make your point.

Then an apology is in order if you took anything I typed as an insult or a an attempt to belittle you personally. That was not my intent...

[Malik True]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Let's see how far the market share would grow, and then worry about whether or not it will start shrinking.

Pro I disagree with a number of items in your post however the one above I disagree with the most. Blu IS a niche market today not the dominant one. It mostly likely will never penetrate the number of households DVD has due to a number of factors and the studios and tech watchers are fully aware of this.

Personally I believe Blu is the last physical format we'll see adopted and embraced in the magnitude it has. Should let's say another physical format is released it will truly have the popularity of the LaserDisc market before it crashes. I say this because streaming has already entrenched itself deep enough to be the future.

Yesterday I posted what Engadget HD reported in regards to Amazon "possibly" offering unlimited streaming in the near future. Below is an excerpt from the Engadget report.

"Amazon has reportedly yet to lock up content from any of the six major Hollywood studios, as the studios continue to evaluate the impact of streaming on DVD sales"

The above statement did not mention Blu-ray because it is a niche market and not seen as the eventual replacement to DVD. Blu-ray will be around for a while and I will continue to purchase specific titles I want. The question is how much longer will Blu get the same support of the studios it has now before the focus shifts to primarily streaming. I surely do not think its decades as in 20 yrs away as others believe.

Octagon

I don't know what studios will do. I can recall one day when I resided in NY many years ago just walking into "The Wiz" (very popular electronic store back then) and all the albums were gone and they were replaced with CD's about two weeks later Tower Records began to do the same. I guess records companies decided that the CD would be the format of choice and made the switch forcing us, the consumers in essence to do the same. The truth of the matter is money played a factor in this and I am sure money will do the same with streaming.

Also, I don't believe Blu is just going to just vanish altogether soon, I don't believe I ever stated that. It's popularity will diminish over time and be reduced down, you'll get much fewer new or old releases as studios move their resources to streaming. I have a LaserDisc player, I don't believe Laser has any studio support if it does it is very, very small. The same will happen with Blu's unfortunately. Older folks still have 8-track and reel to reel, there's almost no support (I think there's ZERO) for either if any. Is VHS even supported by studios any more?