Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[trekdude]

Pro-B, we'll have to completely disagree on this issue. I think we both love watching good movies on blu-ray and hope millions of others will continue moving to the format.

My point is simple. Blu-ray will be one of many options for people to view movies and other content. All of those options will continue to grow as technology improves over the next decade. Plus, consumer interests are changing.

Here's an example My very smart 17-year-old cousin barely remembers life before cell phones, youtube and video on her smartphone, just like all of her friends. I'm age 35 and I value holding a physical disc in my hands and looking at it on my shelf. Younger people don't care. It's the world they know.

And yes, Netflix is the GIANT in home video. It's putting Blockbuster and everyone else out of business, but the company is transitioning from physical media to streaming. What Netflix does influences the entire industry. I don't like it either, but its the unemotional truth.

I tried Netflix's streaming service and it looked worse than standard cable so I cancelled my subscription. But obviously millions of new subscribers every month disagree with me or had a different experience.

The book and music industry have changed dramatically in just a few years. Some books or CDs might sell better than downloads but when you look at the entire market the change is obvious. Blu-ray will feel some of that change too.

I will continue buying blu-rays until something better comes along or the industry stops making them.

[DetroitSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Malik True

"Amazon has reportedly yet to lock up content from any of the six major Hollywood studios, as the studios continue to evaluate the impact of streaming on DVD sales"

The above statement did not mention Blu-ray because it is a niche market and not seen as the eventual replacement to DVD.

Many "journalists" lump DVDs and BDs in the same group, and just write "DVD" because that is what the mainstream public is more familiar with. That ignorance is why we see articles that refer to BDs as "Blu-Ray DVDs".

[Canada]

Yes! Not everybody wants to download there movies, I know I don't. As far as I know you can't get 1080p and lossless or uncompressed by downloading movies. I dot even have a huge home theater imagine trying to convince some one who has $ 50,000 or more tied up in there home theater to go back to 1080i and Dolby Digital, I just can't see it happening.

I have approximately 7,125 gb worth of movies.

Even the person 75 on the Blu rays owned has more than 1 tb worth of movies.

[Canada]

Originally Posted by Sammy

It will go the way of wax cylinders, reel to reel, 8-track, vinyl, cassette, VHS, laser disc, just like DVD is doing right now... Eventually. Applying Murphy's Law, it won't last as long as DVD is lasting. Until then, enjoy.

DVD is still kicking butt.

[financially stable]

Originally Posted by Canada

DVD is still kicking butt.

right..

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Malik True

Pro I disagree with a number of items in your post however the one above I disagree with the most.

That is fine . Typically, a healthy debate can bring out facts that are otherwise ignored. Let's see here if you could answer a couple of questions for me.

Originally Posted by Malik True

Blu IS a niche market today not the dominant one. It mostly likely will never penetrate the number of households DVD has due to a number of factors and the studios and tech watchers are fully aware of this.

1. If Blu-ray is still a niche market, could you point out to me what the other market, the dominant one is? And when you answer, please post factual data that compares the niche with the other market.

2. How did you conclude that Blu-ray will not reach the same penetration as DVD? Has penetration stalled?

3. Why do you believe that for Blu-ray to be considered mass we need to see the exact penetration numbers DVD achieved?

Originally Posted by Malik True

Personally I believe Blu is the last physical format we'll see adopted and embraced in the magnitude it has.

Very well. We agree here.

Originally Posted by Malik True

Should let's say another physical format is released it will truly have the popularity of the LaserDisc market before it crashes. I say this because streaming has already entrenched itself deep enough to be the future.

I disagree. Streaming has not entrenched itself to be the future. If anything, thus far it has been proven that massive infrastructure upgrades are needed for it to be considered a viable method for content delivery. And the very best words its proponents have offered to back up its market validity has been that technology will improve. Sure, let's see how soon.

Originally Posted by Malik True

Yesterday I posted what Engadget HD reported in regards to Amazon "possibly" offering unlimited streaming in the near future. Below is an excerpt from the Engadget report.

"Amazon has reportedly yet to lock up content from any of the six major Hollywood studios, as the studios continue to evaluate the impact of streaming on DVD sales"

The above statement did not mention Blu-ray because it is a niche market and not seen as the eventual replacement to DVD. Blu-ray will be around for a while and I will continue to purchase specific titles I want. The question is how much longer will Blu get the same support of the studios it has now before the focus shifts to primarily streaming. I surely do not think its decades as in 20 yrs away as others believe.

Yes, and?

Originally Posted by Malik True

I don't know what studios will do.

Leave that to the studios to figure out. Like the book publishers, they will figure out a way to run their business.

Originally Posted by Malik True

I can recall one day when I resided in NY many years ago just walking into "The Wiz" (very popular electronic store back then) and all the albums were gone and they were replaced with CD's about two weeks later Tower Records began to do the same. I guess records companies decided that the CD would be the format of choice and made the switch forcing us, the consumers in essence to do the same. The truth of the matter is money played a factor in this and I am sure money will do the same with streaming.

Bingo. So now do some research and see how much, and, more importantly, how revenue is generated from the streaming companies. I'd say this is one of the primary reasons why physical ownership will be supported by the studios for many, many years, likely well after you and I are gone from this world.

Originally Posted by Malik True

Also, I don't believe Blu is just going to just vanish altogether soon, I don't believe I ever stated that.

Neither do I.

Originally Posted by Malik True

It's popularity will diminish over time and be reduced down, you'll get much fewer new or old releases as studios move their resources to streaming.

Sure. What you and I apparently disagree on is what over time will be. I have a feeling that my take on it is much more different than yours.

Originally Posted by Malik True

I have a LaserDisc player, I don't believe Laser has any studio support if it does it is very, very small. The same will happen with Blu's unfortunately. Older folks still have 8-track and reel to reel, there's almost no support (I think there's ZERO) for either if any. Is VHS even supported by studios any more?

I have a DVD player. And there is still plenty of support for it. And there will be for quite some time, even after Blu-ray takes over DVD. With other words, you aren't comparing the right formats.

Pro-B

[Deadset]

Originally Posted by financially stable

right..

Yeah I know. DVD is def not kicking as much butt as it used to. Not with new releases coming out with ~40% of sales coming from bluray discs.

Blu-ray has taken a big bite out of DVD.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by trekdude

Pro-B, we'll have to completely disagree on this issue. I think we both love watching good movies on blu-ray and hope millions of others will continue moving to the format.

Fine

Originally Posted by trekdude

My point is simple. Blu-ray will be one of many options for people to view movies and other content. All of those options will continue to grow as technology improves over the next decade. Plus, consumer interests are changing.

It does not look like a simple point to me. You seem to believe that the other options would improve, while the physical options (and for now let's assume that Blu-ray will be the only one, won't). I'd say to you this: It is more than likely that what would be possible to accomplish on a physical format will always be 10 steps (or 2-3 generations) ahead of what would be possible via streaming. From 3D growth to ultra-high resolution products.

Originally Posted by trekdude

Here's an example My very smart 17-year-old cousin barely remembers life before cell phones, youtube and video on her smartphone, just like all of her friends. I'm age 35 and I value holding a physical disc in my hands and looking at it on my shelf. Younger people don't care. It's the world they know.

Here's another example: Even though we can now send instant (e)mail to any corner of the world, we are still using "old-fashioned" mail. And this holiday season there was so much of it that post offices around the world could not handle the volume.

Originally Posted by trekdude

And yes, Netflix is the GIANT in home video. It's putting Blockbuster and everyone else out of business, but the company is transitioning from physical media to streaming. What Netflix does influences the entire industry. I don't like it either, but its the unemotional truth.

Two corrections - Netflix is a giant according to...Netflix. And Netflix hurt Blockbuster long before they proclaimed themselves "streaming company". Additionally, many, let me repeat again, many of Blockbuster's biggest financial woes were inherited from the SDVD days, and were not a byproduct of their competition with Netflix.

Originally Posted by trekdude

I tried Netflix's streaming service and it looked worse than standard cable so I cancelled my subscription. But obviously millions of new subscribers every month disagree with me or had a different experience.

It is not so obvious. Again: All of the data about Netflix usage you see comes from...Netflix. Think about that.

Originally Posted by trekdude

The book and music industry have changed dramatically in just a few years. Some books or CDs might sell better than downloads but when you look at the entire market the change is obvious. Blu-ray will feel some of that change too.

Yes, the two industries have changed dramatically. Here's a suggestion for you: compare how much in revenue the music industry generated from CDs last year to what they did from downloads. Then, if you have the time, please let me know (with numbers please), how the industry's biggest hit albums sold

Originally Posted by trekdude

I will continue buying blu-rays until something better comes along or the industry stops making them.

So will I. 2011 is shaping out to be a great year for catalog product.

Good talking to you

Pro-B

[stobbart]

The only way for BD to be replaced by another physical media would have to do with the acceptance of huge tvs and or projectors, like 10 foot or so. Im not sure the actual point at which 1080p can be discernible to the human eye as inferior to another format (at which point there is only film). But in order to see this upgrade in quality relies on massive viewing space, something that probably about 95% of the US population either does not have or would even be able to afford.

As far as streaming I personally will never get rid of my hard copies for digital even if the quality is the same. So I see my investment in Blu-ray right now as being the way I will be watching movies for a looooong time to come.

And being a filmmaker just being able to experience some of these older films in the quality as close to how they were intended to be seen is remarkable.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by stobbart

The only way for BD to be replaced by another physical media would have to do with the acceptance of huge tvs and or projectors, like 10 foot or so. Im not sure the actual point at which 1080p can be discernible to the human eye as inferior to another format (at which point there is only film). But in order to see this upgrade in quality relies on massive viewing space, something that probably about 95% of the US population either does not have or would even be able to afford.

As far as streaming I personally will never get rid of my hard copies for digital even if the quality is the same. So I see my investment in Blu-ray right now as being the way I will be watching movies for a looooong time to come.

And being a filmmaker just being able to experience some of these older films in the quality as close to how they were intended to be seen is remarkable.

Give this man his prize!

Pro-B

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

2011 is shaping out to be a great year for catalog product.

Pro-B

You aren't kidding. Just the rumored titles mentioned in 2010 were enough for me to say that, but some of the ones that have release dates have me very exited.

The Outlaw Josey Wales
Papillon
Taxi Driver
And Justice for All
Mortal Kombat
El Topo
Stand By Me
The Ten Commandments
All the President's Men

And actually just today found out Kansas City Confidential is coming out in two weeks.

I really need to check out the release calendar more often.

[Canada]

DVD is still kicking butt.

Originally Posted by financially stable

right..

DVD has been around since "97 and there still selling around 60% average on the format for a new release.

I think in the next few years you will see far fewer DVD than you see today but when where selling 40% on Blu ray I thought it would be more than that by now.

[nameisjimbo]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Two corrections - Netflix is a giant according to...Netflix

How many subscribers does it take to make a "giant" in your book?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...70P8GM20110126

"Netflix's total subscriber base now stands at 20 million, making it the third largest U.S. video subscription service behind only Comcast and DirecTV"

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by nameisjimbo

How many subscribers does it take to make a "giant" in your book?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...70P8GM20110126

"Netflix's total subscriber base now stands at 20 million, making it the third largest U.S. video subscription service behind only Comcast and DirecTV"

You didn't really contradict what was said though. Netflix is taking the stance that their customers are tired of disc, when the vast majority rent discs from them as a matter of routine. So now they say they are a streaming company and their first move is to raise the rates on their disc customers. Their second move is a punitive one aimed at... Don't really know what they were thinking with the whole button debacle. Piss off their base? If so, mission accomplished. Add all that in with the inevitable price hikes coming because of their streaming deals, and who knows?

[nameisjimbo]

Originally Posted by Rob71

You didn't really contradict what was said though. Netflix is taking the stance that their customers are tired of disc, when the vast majority rent discs from them as a matter of routine. So now they say they are a streaming company and their first move is to raise the rates on their disc customers. Their second move is a punitive one aimed at... Don't really know what they were thinking with the whole button debacle. Piss off their base? If so, mission accomplished. Add all that in with the inevitable price hikes coming because of their streaming deals, and who knows?

You read way more into my post than what was there.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Malik True

Also, I don't believe Blu is just going to just vanish altogether soon, I don't believe I ever stated that. It's popularity will diminish over time and be reduced down, you'll get much fewer new or old releases as studios move their resources to streaming.

Perhaps I'm misreading your position but it appears to be this - streaming will supplant physical media and this could happen in as few as five years and will almost certainly happen in no more than ten.

The problem I have with that forecast is that it both overestimates the rate at which bandwidth will become availabe and underestimates the demand for it.

Yes, technology advances exponentially but infrastructure gears tend to grind quite a bit more slowly. In addition to the massive (and massively expensive) physical obstacles there are all manner of regulatory obstacles (particularly in the case of wireless options). If a ten-fold increase in networking technology were introduced tomorrow it would take years before it was widely adopted let alone implemented. We're talking about a huge pie here and not only are a lot of people trying to get their fingers in it, a lot of people have very big interests in keeping their fingers right where they are even if that means blocking or slowing new approaches.

As for the demand side, true (or even true-ish) HD is hardly a niche market. It's probably true that most people don't care all that much about 1080p v 1080i or lossless v lossy audio but it should abundantly clear that a *lot* of people do. We're not talking about a handful of audiophiles clinging to vinyl here. People have been voting with their wallets for a few years now and a sizable number of them prefer HD and are willing to pay for it.

As long as that's the case my guess is providers will be willing to take their money.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by stobbart

The only way for BD to be replaced by another physical media would have to do with the acceptance of huge tvs and or projectors, like 10 foot or so.

I half agree (+.5?)

I agree that talk of a consumer 4k standard or the like is beyond premature.

I do think there might be room for another generation of physical media though - I could see optical media being replaced by a solid-state alternative. We're not there with regard to either price or reliability but I could see that changing in the next several years.

Originally Posted by stobbart

And being a filmmaker just being able to experience some of these older films in the quality as close to how they were intended to be seen is remarkable.

Couldn't agree more. In a lot of ways Dirty Harry killed dvd for me. Not only did I feel like I had watched it in a theater, I felt like I had watched in a theater in the seventies. It was a surprisingly powerful reaction and definitely the kind of high I don't mind chasing.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by nameisjimbo

How many subscribers does it take to make a "giant" in your book?

I am well familiar with the article, as well as Netflix's recent shareholders report.

So, what type of a giant? And according to who? Remember, we are discussing the market Netflix service - which would mean that you take into consideration what numbers Netflix generate for the studios, and exactly what percentage of their disc shipments are responsible for their growth. As far as the former is concerned, there could be some semi-accurate numbers, since the studios obviously have the financial data that indicates how many discs they ship to Netflix. As far as the latter is concerned, you have absolutely no hard financial data to go by. It is what Netflix are willing to reveal about...Netflix's transformation into a streaming company.

So, again, what type of a giant?

Pro-B

[nameisjimbo]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

I am well familiar with the article, as well as Netflix's recent shareholders report.

So, what type of a giant? And according to who? Remember, we are discussing the market Netflix service - which would mean that you take into consideration what numbers Netflix generate for the studios, and exactly what percentage of their disc shipments are responsible for their growth. As far as the former is concerned, there could be some semi-accurate numbers, since the studios obviously have the financial data that indicates how many discs they ship to Netflix. As far as the latter is concerned, you have absolutely no hard financial data to go by. It is what Netflix are willing to reveal about...Netflix's transformation into a streaming company.

So, again, what type of a giant?

Pro-B

I get the feeling that you are going to shift the goal posts to whatever you feel supports your argument. Thanks, but no thanks.

[kdo]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

The demise of Blu-ray is inevitable, though the claims it will be the last physical format are exaggerated. Blu-ray will never reach the market heights that DVD achieved, due to a combination of factors. But it has already obtained for itself a steady and viable position for several more years at the very minimum.

I agree.

Originally Posted by Blu-ray Fanatic

all that digital download crap is all hype.

Actually, no it's not. I know more people who stream movies now, than buy them on DVD and/or Blu-ray.

Originally Posted by trekdude

I value holding a physical disc in my hands and looking at it on my shelf. Younger people don't care. It's the world they know.

Good point.

I tried Netflix's streaming service and it looked worse than standard cable so I cancelled my subscription. But obviously millions of new subscribers every month disagree with me or had a different experience.

No, they don't disagree with you or have a different experience, it's that they don't care (just like you said). Fact of the matter is that the majority of consumers could really care less about the usually minimal to moderate improvement that Blu-ray provides compared to DVD and/or streaming. Heck, of the very few people I know who even have Blu-ray, most of them could care less about upgrading the films they already have on DVD. One guy I know is very well to do financially, has a Blu-ray player and high quality home theater system, and when I asked him if he was going to upgrade some of his DVD titles to Blu, he simply looked at me and said "Why would I rebuy movies I already own?"

For those who continue to believe that the future of Blu-ray is bright and full of promise, I need only say this...A little over 5 years into the format, DVD had nearly 23,000 titles available. Blu-ray is only about 4 months away from its 5 year mark, and how many titles have been released? About 3,700...one only needs to do the math to figure it out.

Originally Posted by Canada

DVD is still kicking butt.

Considering just about everyone on the planet already owns all of the movies they could possibly want on DVD, yes, it is impressive how well DVD still continues to sell.

Originally Posted by Deadset

Yeah I know. DVD is def not kicking as much butt as it used to. Not with new releases coming out with ~40% of sales coming from bluray discs.

Blu-ray has taken a big bite out of DVD.

Again, this is mainly because everyone already owns all the DVD's they could possibly want. Of course Blu-ray is going to cut in on marketshare of the new-releases, but even then, DVD is still outselling Blu.

Originally Posted by stobbart

And being a filmmaker just being able to experience some of these older films in the quality as close to how they were intended to be seen is remarkable.

Unfortunately though, this is not a universal truth. It all depends on the quality of work we get from the studios. If we get a top-notch restoration this can be the case, but seriously, how many titles on Blu-ray have really been given 'red-carpet' treatment?