Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Cevolution]

Originally Posted by Malik True

Cevolution

My statement was directed specifically @ Pro-B. The bold type highlighted above I disagree with in a BIG WAY. I have also along with many others whom I agree with acknowledged why. As I responded to Pro-B time will indeed reveal all..

I stand by my comment that u highlighted 100%. What part of it do disagree with? Though it's not really a comment that u can disagree with, because stating comments such as 'dvd currently has a bigger market and still sells more than blu-ray' and 'blu-ray will never get to the same market level as dvd has', are ridiculous as they are obvious, for many factors and reasons (which some of are listed in my post I told u to look at), and therefore are foolish things to use as points to try to support your argument.

Btw, no matter what u say to Pro-B, he's not going to agree with u (nor u with him), because he has his own views and opinions, just like u do. So with that being the case, why bother replying back, as really there's point, because in the end neither of u are going to agree with one another. Obviously that's what forums are for, to discuss your opinions with others, but when does it get to the point where u go, this conversation I'm having with this person is just going nowhere, because we simply don't agree and probably never will.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Even if the top 20 sold 100% in Blu-ray, DVD would still probably hold a large portion... possibly even a majority.

DVD just has an ENORMOUS back catalog and even though each one of those DVDs that are years old might not sell well, putting them all together adds up to a far greater sum than BD has a chance to compare favorably against. This is why looking at it industry-wide doesn't provide a good understanding of what Blu-ray is doing exactly. Even if the best selling titles sold at 100%, Blu-ray would still not have even close to 100% industry-wide market share.

I meant on a per title basis. I would be willing to bet that more than a few Blu-rays made more profit release week than the DVD. I just wonder at what point the studios will think a combo only release will make more sense than a DVD and BD release. And if retail shrinking DVD shelf space might help speed that decision along.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Malik True

[FONT="Verdana"][SIZE="3"][COLOR="DarkSlateBlue"]Pro-B

When did the discussion enter the classroom where now one must produce graphs, trends and analysis for credibility?

If you choose to completely disregard any of my statements, that’s fine however I am not going to go searching for data to support my beliefs, it’s not that important. My statements are based what I’ve read, what I’ve seen and what others are doing or have done, as trekdude mentioned in regards to his 17 yr old cousin.

Whether I agree or disagree with your statements, what you describe above is anecdotal information and has no relevance in any intelligent discussion of what's happening in a market. Graphs, trends and analysis is exactly what's needed in any such discussion. Otherwise, you're discussing nothing more than personal emotions and not facts. It's one thing to state, "I love BD because of A, B and C" and express that as a personal opinion of how you personally feel about the media. It's quite another to imply that "BD will be successful because I love BD" and apply one's own feelings to the entire market without any facts to back it up.

I don't remember if it was this thread, but some days back, someone wrote, "I saw someone in a store and they did X" and used that to extrapolate what this one person did to represent the entire market. That's simply foolish.

It's sort of like the hype about vinyl. The popular assumption is that "vinyl is making a comeback". Are vinyl sales increasing? Sure. But it's such a small number (vinyl sales are basically a rounding error) it would be like me stating that BD sales must have doubled because I doubled the amount of BD titles I purchased in the last year (but last year I only bought two titles).

When I read statements like "I saw someone in a store...", I hope the writer is 16 years old because if they're a person with a college education and especially if they took any business courses, they wasted their money.

If you don't want to backup your statements with research, that's certainly your right, but then don't express them as supposed facts.

[SpaceDog]

The argument that the pace of blu-ray releasing is killing the format is invalid. The same pace and strategy is in place for blu-ray as it has been for DVD. The fact of the matter is that the best selling titles will always be the shiny and new stuff. Only a minority of catalog titles have the ability to sell blockbuster numbers on a new format. Those releases are staggered so as not to cannibilize each other. People are much more likely to buy a new film or a new catalog release than a catalog release that has been available since the first year of blu-ray.
It's marketing 101.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by headcheese_bbq

To the people saying streaming will replace media, this countries infrastructure is no where near ready for that kind of transition. We can barely support the streamers as it is...now with everything streaming...oh boy.

I'm very happy with blu-ray and feel no need for further clarity even. Sometimes I feel if my picture were any clearer, it would stop looking like a film.

It's not going to REPLACE physical media in the near future... but it will be an ever growing competitor from here on out. People forget just how rapidly internet technology DOES grow. Just 15 years ago it was NOT the norm to have a home internet connection... and those that did had to wait 30 minutes just to download one song. Now, with improved speeds and compression technologies I can instantly stream 1080P with 5.1 DD audio, and I just have an average 6MB DSL connection.

The vast majority of my viewing is still from physical media, but there are PLENTY of times that I have no new movies and am not in the mood to rewatch something in my library. This is where streaming media shines. I can just get on Netflix, Zune or Vudu and find a movie I've never seen, even new releases, and start streaming. Movies I've been eagerly anticipating... yeah.. I'll wait for the blu-ray release. Bored on a Thursday night... streaming movies more than fills that entertainment gap.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

In what universe? In 2010, BD achieved a 15.2% market share (in dollars).

Yes, there were a very few titles in which BD sales hit the 50% mark in some weeks, but those were a very few titles. Looking at the latest sales figures of the top 20 titles (01/30/2011), only Inception hit the 50% mark. The #1 title, Red, is at 46% and the #2 title, Secretariat is at 30%.

So I don't know how you can say that BD started outselling DVD mid last year. It's not even close.

Come on man, you take that sentence completely out of context and then pretend it does not make any sense? KDO asked me out of the thousands of movies ever made why does it matter if BD outsold DVD on only a few. That is why I started by asking him from the 20's to the 90's and stuff. Obviously back then no one was buying BD copies of movies, BD did not exist. On New releases BD started outselling DVD mid 2009, and yes we would only look at new releases since anything else would not make sense and can't be compared. I can show that when Gladiator came out on BD, the BD had over 90% of the market that week. But only a complete moron would not realize that almost everyone that wanted it on DVD would have already bought it years ago so you would expect almost 100% of sales would be on BD.

[Agent Bond]

If there's anything invented to replace the Blu-Ray, I sure as Hell don't want it.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

Even if the top 20 sold 100% in Blu-ray, DVD would still probably hold a large portion... possibly even a majority.

DVD just has an ENORMOUS back catalog and even though each one of those DVDs that are years old might not sell well, putting them all together adds up to a far greater sum than BD has a chance to compare favorably against. This is why looking at it industry-wide doesn't provide a good understanding of what Blu-ray is doing exactly. Even if the best selling titles sold at 100%, Blu-ray would still not have even close to 100% industry-wide market share.

What do you think the top 20 selling 100% BD means? It means that new releases are no longer coming out on DVD, if new releases are no longer coming out on DVD why do you assume there will still be a DVD market for it to hold a large portion and possibly a majority? Do HD DVD fan boys (and we know there where a few) still buy HD DVDs? Do VHS tapes still sell well to the people that don't care about DVD quality? With nothing new a format (even if strong) disintegrates almost immediately. Why would BB and all the major movie places sell DVDs only in the garbadge bin? why will Redbox, Netflix and other rental places still hold a large inventory of things most people don't want?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Whether I agree or disagree with your statements, what you describe above is anecdotal information and has no relevance in any intelligent discussion of what's happening in a market. Graphs, trends and analysis is exactly what's needed in any such discussion. Otherwise, you're discussing nothing more than personal emotions and not facts. It's one thing to state, "I love BD because of A, B and C" and express that as a personal opinion of how you personally feel about the media. It's quite another to imply that "BD will be successful because I love BD" and apply one's own feelings to the entire market without any facts to back it up.

I don't remember if it was this thread, but some days back, someone wrote, "I saw someone in a store and they did X" and used that to extrapolate what this one person did to represent the entire market. That's simply foolish.

It's sort of like the hype about vinyl. The popular assumption is that "vinyl is making a comeback". Are vinyl sales increasing? Sure. But it's such a small number (vinyl sales are basically a rounding error) it would be like me stating that BD sales must have doubled because I doubled the amount of BD titles I purchased in the last year (but last year I only bought two titles).

When I read statements like "I saw someone in a store...", I hope the writer is 16 years old because if they're a person with a college education and especially if they took any business courses, they wasted their money.

If you don't want to backup your statements with research, that's certainly your right, but then don't express them as supposed facts.

agree, anecdotal comments are fun and especially to back up facts, but give me the hard facts any day and explain the analysis. Anything else is just useless

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

It's not going to REPLACE physical media in the near future... but it will be an ever growing competitor from here on out. People forget just how rapidly internet technology DOES grow. Just 15 years ago it was NOT the norm to have a home internet connection... and those that did had to wait 30 minutes just to download one song. Now, with improved speeds and compression technologies I can instantly stream 1080P with 5.1 DD audio, and I just have an average 6MB DSL connection.

and 15 years ago you could not get a movie on a disk with more then stereo. The internet does evolve, but so does what we expect from movies. On VHS you had crappy SD and stereo, with DVD SD digital and 5.1 lossy, when BD launched you had decent HD and 7.1, now we have decent HD 3D and lossless 7.1. Both keep on improving, that is the part of the equation proponents of DL miss.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

and 15 years ago you could not get a movie on a disk with more then stereo. The internet does evolve, but so does what we expect from movies. On VHS you had crappy SD and stereo, with DVD SD digital and 5.1 lossy, when BD launched you had decent HD and 7.1, now we have decent HD 3D and lossless 7.1. Both keep on improving, that is the part of the equation proponents of DL miss.

But until you can magically create physical media in your own home it will NEVER have the convenience factor of streaming content. Having your windshield cleaned and your fluids checked is certainly a superior way to get your gas tank filled.... but who wants to wait for that anymore? There's no way around it... many people LIKE the convenience factor of instant streaming.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

But until you can magically create physical media in your own home it will NEVER have the convenience factor of streaming content. Having your windshield cleaned and your fluids checked is certainly a superior way to get your gas tank filled.... but who wants to wait for that anymore? There's no way around it... many people LIKE the convenience factor of instant streaming.

However, the way you are using streaming doesn't replace the need for physical media even slightly.

15 years ago when I didn't feel like going anywhere and wanted to watch a movie I've never seen I'd turn to Pay-Per-View. That's no different from what you are doing now, ultimately. PPV never stopped my desire to buy films.

The main difference between your described use of downloads and PPV is that PPV was a limited technology compared to streaming.

[Cevolution]

Here in Australia, if we want to stream content legally, then we have to enter into a contract which allows us to watch a certain number of movies per month. The problem I have with that is, if u ever cancel your contract then any movie u watched while u were paying for the service goes with it. So that just becomes wasted money as u end up owning no movies when u could have bought the movie in the 1st place which would ensure that u will own it forever. Some people might like the convenience of streaming and only be interested in watching a movie once or twice, but for me I like knowing when I'm paying for my movies they will be there no matter what if I want to watch them in the future.

[partridge]

The studios are happy to support all the various ways there are to access their content, so clearly there's a market for downloads, streaming and disc.

Personally I prefer disc if it's a title I want to keep. I have rented films using PSN on my PS3 and I'm happy with the quality and accept that the sound might only be stereo, sometimes 5.1

But disc based media will be here for a long time; there's no way the studio's can justify pushing downloads only when the internet is spread so thin around the globe. Some of us can get super speed broadband while others remain on something not much faster than dial up. Some can't get the internet at all, but they can buy discs through the post or in a shop.

I also hate the idea of all my music and film being stored on a hard drive - I'd need terrabytes of storage! Though I see the appeal of instant access to that stuff, give me a disc in a box (or a nice collectors edition) any day.

Is the future digital downloads? I really don't know, that depends entirely on the infrastructure, but for many there is a fixed limit to how fast their access can reach and if it doesn't allow for streaming then streaming won't become the norm. The studios will always concentrate on the biggest market.

[Deadset]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

It's not going to REPLACE physical media in the near future... but it will be an ever growing competitor from here on out.

Definetly true. Streaming is here to stay...whether you use Netflix, Crackle, etc...there will always be a market for middle of the road streaming quality compared to blurays.

The vast majority of my viewing is still from physical media, but there are PLENTY of times that I have no new movies and am not in the mood to rewatch something in my library. This is where streaming media shines. I can just get on Netflix, Zune or Vudu and find a movie I've never seen, even new releases, and start streaming. Movies I've been eagerly anticipating... yeah.. I'll wait for the blu-ray release. Bored on a Thursday night... streaming movies more than fills that entertainment gap.

There have been instances when someone in my house wanted to watch a movie, checked streaming and watched it there vs. taking the disc out of the case, placing it in the player, switching inputs and watching the movie. I asked why? The answer I got, It was easy and the lower quality really doesn't bother me. Now to me, it does make a difference. Some people though it doesn't bother them.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

However, the way you are using streaming doesn't replace the need for physical media even slightly.

15 years ago when I didn't feel like going anywhere and wanted to watch a movie I've never seen I'd turn to Pay-Per-View. That's no different from what you are doing now, ultimately. PPV never stopped my desire to buy films.

The main difference between your described use of downloads and PPV is that PPV was a limited technology compared to streaming.

That's a pretty big difference!

The market is full of varied types of consumers. Consider the market portion that rarely ever purchases movies but prefers rentals... they do indeed exist. Now instead of travelling to the local rental place... they can stream instantly. Then there's the portion of the market that places more value on the convenience of streaming than they do on the superior quality of physical media. Those people are out there too. Then there are tons of people like myself who consider streaming to be a very viable and convenient portion of my overall entertainment options.

As I said in my first post... I don't think physical media is going away soon; but I don't think that it is even debatable that streaming media will continue to provide more and more competition for physical media.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Deadset

Definetly true. Streaming is here to stay...whether you use Netflix, Crackle, etc...there will always be a market for middle of the road streaming quality compared to blurays.



There have been instances when someone in my house wanted to watch a movie, checked streaming and watched it there vs. taking the disc out of the case, placing it in the player, switching inputs and watching the movie. I asked why? The answer I got, It was easy and the lower quality really doesn't bother me. Now to me, it does make a difference. Some people though it doesn't bother them.

For me it depends upon the movie. There are tons of indie films and older films that will NEVER make it to blu-ray, and I really enjoy scolling through them on Netflix until I find one that strikes me. Then there are movies that I kind of want to see.... but not enough to actually buy them. A streaming rental is the perfect compromise, especially if I don't want to wait months for it to come to the movie channels.

The other night I updated my bedroom blu-ray player and they had added Vudu. All I had to do was give my email address to get one free HD rental. I chose The Karate Kid because it fit that kinda want to see nitch. Within moments I was streaming it in 1080P and 5.1 DD.... and for that movie, and for watching in my bedroom, that was perfectly fine quality for me.

[victorvondoom88]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

But until you can magically create physical media in your own home it will NEVER have the convenience factor of streaming content. Having your windshield cleaned and your fluids checked is certainly a superior way to get your gas tank filled.... but who wants to wait for that anymore? There's no way around it... many people LIKE the convenience factor of instant streaming.

While that maybe true there are many people who prefer Quality over Quantity. Those people incidentally drive the HT market and keep asking for more.

Some of what you say reminds me of the IT guy at my work who is usually up on the latest and greatest in tech. During the format war right around the release of the ps3 he was convinced Sony would fail on both fronts not only would HD-DVD beat out blu-ray on name recognition alone the fact that you don't need blu-ray for games and the loss the ps3 represented would be it's undoing.

My reply was simply this: people want cool stuff. blu-ray sounds cooler and if you researched it, you would've found it was indeed more future proof and offered more.

Blu-ray won and the ps3 was a huge part of that win & the arguments that games don't need 25gb of space has also been proven incorrect.

He also incidentally shares your views of "digital" media here is what even he will concede. It's all fine and dandy to say it's the future and all but until everyone has access to 30Mbps download speed whats the point? My internet is fast enough (6-8Mbps) for most games but when I try to stream movies or TV shows I get bumped down to SD and to beat that it looks awful not even as good as my directv feed. I've done it on my ps3 my xbox and the wii. Wii looked the worst ps3 better and xbox actually did it the best but if there is allot of movement it all falls apart. Horrible compression artifacts.

Now I live in a rural area(~90miles west of Chicago) just like the majority of the USA does. If I lived in L.A. or N.Y. or even Chicago I would probably have allot better speeds. To which my IT guy says is the achillles heel of the streaming world is our poor infastructure. Add to that allot of isp's are putting caps on bandwidth I don't know about you but sure don't want to get socked with overages.

As for getting up and changing inputs, taking the disc out of the case and putting the disc in the player. I don't see a big deal here I'm 5 feet away from my HT gear cabinet. I like the case art and disc art and some special features not all but some.

Ultimately I want the best picture and sound I can get period if that means digital downloads one day so be it but it isn't going to be anytime soon in my area.

FWIW the Cassette tape beat out 8-track, VHS beat out Betamax, CD eventually beat out the cassette tape, DVD did obsolete VHS
But Vinyl is still going strong Care to explain that?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

But until you can magically create physical media in your own home it will NEVER have the convenience factor of streaming content. Having your windshield cleaned and your fluids checked is certainly a superior way to get your gas tank filled.... but who wants to wait for that anymore? There's no way around it... many people LIKE the convenience factor of instant streaming.

I don't have an issue withy people streaming, the discussion was not if people should or should not stream. I did not even add to your comment that it will be a growing choice. But you need to be realistiic, the internet needs to be a hell of a lot more robust in order for it to work for more then a small niche and it does not make sense that physical media will remain the same for all those years.

As to the convenience of phy7sical media? I buy my BDs during my lunch brake or on line so yes they do magically appear in my home. If the internet is down and you want to watch a movie how convenient is streaming? If you start watching a film and your friend says “come over and we will watch it” how convenient is it to bring it to his place? If you go on vacation, how convenient is it to stream movies there? Streaming has some benefits, but there are many negatives as well.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

I don't think that it is even debatable that streaming media will continue to provide more and more competition for physical media.

The issue is that everything you say about streaming was true for PPV and it launched years before DVD did, it did not stop DVD from growing and having a full life. In home streaming has existed since the early 90's and yet has never amounted to much, DL music has been growing for 10 years and yet physical media is king. Is streaming DL movies here to stay? most probably. Will it continue growing extremely slowly as it has from the start? yes. Why do we need to go over it every few days? Especially since they also tend to contain mostly exaggerated and false statements?