Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

There are tons of indie films and older films that will NEVER make it to blu-ray, and I really enjoy scolling through them on Netflix until I find one that strikes mebuy them.

You see this is a perfect example of what I said in my previous post, why do you believe they will will "NEVER make it to blu-ray"? And how does your unrealistic belief become fact all of a sudden? Where do you think Netflix is getting these movies from? Do you think that the studio went through all the trouble just to limit themselves to a small part of one rental agency (according to Netflixes own PR less then half of their users even tried streaming- if I remember correctly they used 10 minutes of DL or something like that)?

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

The issue is that everything you say about streaming was true for PPV and it launched years before DVD did, it did not stop DVD from growing and having a full life. In home streaming has existed since the early 90's and yet has never amounted to much, DL music has been growing for 10 years and yet physical media is king. Is streaming DL movies here to stay? most probably. Will it continue growing extremely slowly as it has from the start? yes. Why do we need to go over it every few days? Especially since they also tend to contain mostly exaggerated and false statements?

Our definition of growth may be different. Recently it made the news that Netflix alone accounts for 20% of all internet bandwidth usage during prime hours. It's the most popular streaming service... but there are several others that would surely add to that total.

This article dated today shows that Netflix added 7.7 million subscribers in 2010, with 3.1 million of them coming in Q4 after Netflix made a streaming only option available. This compared with 2.9 million total subscribers in all of 2009. That's some pretty rapid growth, and it is certain that much of it is streaming related with Netflix streaming having been added to so many devices already connected to our tv's during that time frame.

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives...n_4_months.php

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

Our definition of growth may be different. Recently it made the news that Netflix alone accounts for 20% of all internet bandwidth usage during prime hours. It's the most popular streaming service... but there are several others that would surely add to that total.

Agree, but we are not discussing why streaming movies has no chance of going mainstream. Think about it, it is the biggest Internet capacity hog while it is only available in two countries and we are talking about some of the customers of one provider.


We are talking about movies, so growth means growth in revenue from selling or renting more movies.

[edit] I was not going to bother looking for it again since I think I posted it earlier and I was too lazy to look for it again. But EST (streaming and other DL) grew 15.7 percent to $683M, BD grew 68% and sales (unfortunately they don't give rental) where $1.8B http://www.degonline.org/pressreleases/2011/f_Q410.pdf

why do people feel a need to ask if BD will survive when it is more then 3x as big, growing 3x faster and does not have any distribution issues (like you pointed Netflix by itself accounts for 20% of internet traffic right now) [/edit]

This article dated today shows that Netflix added 7.7 million subscribers in 2010, with 3.1 million of them coming in Q4 after Netflix made a streaming only option available. This compared with 2.9 million total subscribers in all of 2009. That's some pretty rapid growth, and it is certain that much of it is streaming related with Netflix streaming having been added to so many devices already connected to our tv's during that time frame.

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives...n_4_months.php

that did not say anything about what was DL and what was not. Why would you assume that it is necessarily DL. Also you are missing that Netflix started operations in Canada at the end of Sept

[krazeyeyez]

whats the comparison between ppv and streaming...

i can see ppv being compared to renting, but streaming is much more like cable service only with endless options at your fingertips. I don't have it but my exposure to netflix through the 360 is pretty impressive. The catalog of choices is growing extremely fast as well. For less then the cost of one movie purchase you not only get all the tv and movies you could want, but discs as well, even blu-rays. Hardly see how that can be compared to ppv. For me physical media will stay, but i see a definite shift especially with all the new tv's coming with these service capabilities built in.

[Blu-ray Fanatic]

Wouldn't it suck if blu-ray were to be discontinued starting right now? Just imagine what these threads would look like.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by krazeyeyez

whats the comparison between ppv and streaming...

i can see ppv being compared to renting, but streaming is much more like cable service only with endless options at your fingertips. I don't have it but my exposure to netflix through the 360 is pretty impressive. The catalog of choices is growing extremely fast as well. For less then the cost of one movie purchase you not only get all the tv and movies you could want, but discs as well, even blu-rays. Hardly see how that can be compared to ppv. For me physical media will stay, but i see a definite shift especially with all the new tv's coming with these service capabilities built in.

Not sure of your question, but Netflix (streaming or disk) is renting. PPV started in the 90's and for the person too lazy to go to the rental place to get a VHS they could sit at home and watch the movie they want on their TV. Netflix is not like cable (assuming you exclude PPV) since with cable you don't have a choice on what you watch and when you watch it. Also when PPV came out some people where sure that renting physical media was doomed because everyone would be too lazy to go out to the rental place when they could just dial a # and watch it on the TV.

In essence every pro-DL argument is pretty much a rehash of everything that was used as pro-PPV

PS not important, but what does It in “I don't have it” mean?

[krazeyeyez]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Not sure of your question, but Netflix (streaming or disk) is renting. PPV started in the 90's and for the person too lazy to go to the rental place to get a VHS they could sit at home and watch the movie they want on their TV. Netflix is not like cable (assuming you exclude PPV) since with cable you don't have a choice on what you watch and when you watch it. Also when PPV came out some people where sure that renting physical media was doomed because everyone would be too lazy to go out to the rental place when they could just dial a # and watch it on the TV.

In essence every pro-DL argument is pretty much a rehash of everything that was used as pro-PPV

PS not important, but what does It in “I don't have it” mean?

It would be netflix, although when i get an xbox again i fully plan to subscribe.

PPV was and is limited... your also paying for a one time use, like renting, you get the movie, watch it and your done... for under $20 a month, netflix is like a cable service only you program what you want to watch.... movies or tv what you want when you want. I watch a movie this week, then in two months i want to watch it again, i can, basically its like having the ability to borrow from a super nerd with everything in existence. They have HD, they have 5.1, i just don't see how this compares in any way to ppv. Maybe at a basic level if you neglect all the other features, options and conveniences.

I am sure people will always buy media, i know i will, but i think streaming is a very real new form of distribution that is becoming more mainstream and accessible every day, and INTEGRATED into every new gadget you buy.

I just think its unfair to say streaming is just ppv, at least imo.

It may be this is a rehash of old arguments, but the variables have and will continue to change in its favor. What seems to be a rehash from my perspective is the doom and gloom of streaming, and internet topping out etc... being comparable to the fud spread during the red blu days. Streaming being built into tvs, game systems, etc.. does not lead me to believe it will just be a once a year ppv option.

[kdo]

Originally Posted by Blu-ray Fanatic

Wouldn't it suck if blu-ray were to be discontinued starting right now? Just imagine what these threads would look like.

Thankfully, I think it's fair to say that's not going to happen . As you very well know, just the tech capabilities alone are going to ensure its survival for quite some time. Blu-ray is a brilliant format, with so much potential ...what it comes down to I feel, is how the studios choose to utilize the technology. The capacity for top-notch quality is amply available, but as with almost everything, money and demand end up dictating what can (or will) be done with a given title. It's a shame that every release doesn't get the type of treatment that "Blade Runner" did, because if this was the case, I've no doubt that films on Blu would be selling HUGE. I try to say to people, it's not the Blu-ray format itself that's the problem, it's all about the studios, and the lengths they're willing to go in what they provide to be mastered onto the disc...

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by krazeyeyez

whats the comparison between ppv and streaming...

i can see ppv being compared to renting, but streaming is much more like cable service only with endless options at your fingertips. I don't have it but my exposure to netflix through the 360 is pretty impressive. The catalog of choices is growing extremely fast as well. For less then the cost of one movie purchase you not only get all the tv and movies you could want, but discs as well, even blu-rays. Hardly see how that can be compared to ppv. For me physical media will stay, but i see a definite shift especially with all the new tv's coming with these service capabilities built in.

I wouldn't count on that being the case much longer. The Starz deal alone looks to be a major cost for the company later this year. Most people are talking it going from 30M a year to around 200M. When that happens look for every content provider to look for the same come contract time. What then, jack the price of the disc plans again? If they do that they'll lose even more disc customers(and profit from them).

[Malik True]

Originally Posted by Rob71

I wouldn't count on that being the case much longer. The Starz deal alone looks to be a major cost for the company later this year. Most people are talking it going from 30M a year to around 200M. When that happens look for every content provider to look for the same come contract time. What then, jack the price of the disc plans again? If they do that they'll lose even more disc customers(and profit from them).

Rob do you think the their customer base will remain the same and not grow? I think their customer base will continue to swell so what they spend in securing content may offset or and I am sure they think profitable by their expanding customer base. Yesterday I read streaming to a subscriber costs Netflix a nickel as apposed to a $1 for every disc sent...

[Warjack Prime]

I can't imagine physical media ever "going away." The fact that I can stream HD movies, and the fact that I have kids and don't want as many R rated movies around, does limit my bluray purchases, but for movies I want to own I would never pay to own a digital copy simply because computers crash or can be erased whereas a bluray disc is tangibly more reliable.

That was a long sentence.

For instance, the bluray disc Red was on sale for $13 at Target and I almost bought it. However, I know I'll likely not watch it more than once so why pay $13 for a bluray disc when I can pay $5 and stream it in HD for one viewing? Now for movies like Star Wars I'll gladly buy the bluray discs rather than stream or buy a digital copy (if it were available). Some movies I want to own on my shelf and I don't think I'm alone in that desire.

So in my opinion, which is based on my in the box thinking of how digital media would work, I can't imagine paying $20 for a bluray movie that could in any way be lost through some computer glitch or crash. I can't be alone in that thinking either.

[Sammy]

You cannot stream a movie in HD right now. What netflix refers to as HD isn't.

For $5/month you can back your data on remote servers on the internet... Or you can have a RAID or even a single back up drive or a NAS.

There's plenty of ways to preserve your data and I recommend it. Do you have digital pictures on your HDD? If for some reason your drive was wiped they'd be lost forever and you cannot go to amazon and build a replacement library. So doing this really isn't just for your media library, it is for all your data.

Back to movies... Digital will replace blu-ray and it is happening now. Applying Moore's Law and its corrolaries, it will be faster than blu-ray replaced dvd and will happen before blu-ray gets the chance to replace dvd.

[nolfoc]

Originally Posted by Sammy

You cannot stream a movie in HD right now. What netflix refers to as HD isn't.

For $5/month you can back your data on remote servers on the internet... Or you can have a RAID or even a single back up drive or a NAS.

There's plenty of ways to preserve your data and I recommend it. Do you have digital pictures on your HDD? If for some reason your drive was wiped they'd be lost forever and you cannot go to amazon and build a replacement library. So doing this really isn't just for your media library, it is for all your data.

Back to movies... Digital will replace blu-ray and it is happening now. Applying Moore's Law and its corrolaries, it will be faster than blu-ray replaced dvd and will happen before blu-ray gets the chance to replace dvd.

this is your opinion, its not a fact.. this thread needs to die already. its just a bunch of opinions, their is no evidence and when digital doesnt take BD over i want to hear all of you speak that said it was.. not everybody is into computers and streaming and what not.. they will lose a ton of money if they stop producing physical copies.. my opinion of course

[Sammy]

I happen to agree with you on the statement about computers and such. The thing is that if Moore's Law and it's corrolaries are are found to be true then it will happen. There is a limit but we're not there yet. At some point being able to PPV or VOD a 1080P, 24fps, Lossless Multi-channel movie or TV show will most likely be possible. At this point the need for physical media will no longer be there for even the masses.... Speaking of which, most are quite satisfied with pixelated, macro blocked, haloed DD 5.1 material anyway so that is where it will go.

Take a look:

Network capacity. According to Gerry/Gerald Butters,[29][30] the former head of Lucent's Optical Networking Group at Bell Labs, there is another version, called Butter's Law of Photonics,[31] a formulation which deliberately parallels Moore's law. Butter's law[32] says that the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every nine months. Thus, the cost of transmitting a bit over an optical network decreases by half every nine months. The availability of wavelength-division multiplexing (sometimes called "WDM") increased the capacity that could be placed on a single fiber by as much as a factor of 100. Optical networking and dense wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM) is rapidly bringing down the cost of networking, and further progress seems assured. As a result, the wholesale price of data traffic collapsed in the dot-com bubble. Nielsen's Law says that the bandwidth available to users increases by 50% annually.

Snipped from the wikipedia article on Moore's Law (one of the corrolaries).

[nolfoc]

Originally Posted by Sammy

I happen to agree with you on the statement about computers and such. The thing is that if Moore's Law and it's corrolaries are are found to be true then it will happen. there is a limit but we're not there yet.

Take a look:

Snipped from the wikipedia article on Moore's Law (one of the corrolaries).

i agree with this, technology is always changing, but i cant see them taking away physical copies.. a lot of things will be affected by it if it does happen.. people like to keep themselves busy and get out of hte house.. if streaming was the only thing, obeseity will be at all time highs

[Sammy]

I don't see the relationship at all between obesity and video streaming as there isn't one. As far as the studios making enough money to cover their costs, they'll find a way. A lot of people will still pay for their video but just won't have to trek to the local Blockbuster, Redbox or mom and pop video store, they'll just pay for it right through their TV. They already do. Providing this in TrueHD (both pq and aq) will come as maybe a premium rental. It is even there now in VOD where the SD version is say $4 and the "HD" version is $6. So maybe the TrueHD version will be $8 or so but as the ability to deliver data gets faster and/or cheaper the cost of these rentals will go down too.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by Malik True

Rob do you think the their customer base will remain the same and not grow? I think their customer base will continue to swell so what they spend in securing content may offset or and I am sure they think profitable by their expanding customer base. Yesterday I read streaming to a subscriber costs Netflix a nickel as apposed to a $1 for every disc sent...

Streaming costs a nickel now. Wait until the Starz deal gets renegotiated. And then wait and see what the other content providers decide to ask for. Read what Warner Bros. opinion on the subject is.

[nolfoc]

Originally Posted by Sammy

I don't see the relationship at all between obesity and video streaming as there isn't one. As far as the studios making enough money to cover their costs, they'll find a way. A lot of people will still pay for their video but just won't have to trek to the local Blockbuster, Redbox or mom and pop video store, they'll just pay for it right through their TV. They already do. Providing this in TrueHD (both pq and aq) will come as maybe a premium rental. It is even there now in VOD where the SD version is say $4 and the "HD" version is $6. So maybe the TrueHD version will be $8 or so but as the ability to deliver data gets faster and/or cheaper the cost of these rentals will go down too.

the relationship being nobody will leave their house.. its bad enough video games and what not are focusing on people staying home.. look at all the work out video games that are out! when did the gym become a bad thing. technolgoy has given people reasons to stay home, next we will be able to eat food that is streamed through out tvs.. this is a joke.. people need to enjoy the fresh aair and sun, i can give much more examples and keep proving hte relationsip if youd like me to.

[Sammy]

Originally Posted by nolfoc

the relationship being nobody will leave their house.. its bad enough video games and what not are focusing on people staying home.. look at all the work out video games that are out! when did the gym become a bad thing. technolgoy has given people reasons to stay home, next we will be able to eat food that is streamed through out tvs.. this is a joke.. people need to enjoy the fresh aair and sun, i can give much more examples and keep proving hte relationsip if youd like me to.

Well I do that too but it still is not related. Some people will be lazy like this without regard to what technology is available. IMHO, there still no relationship between the two. The two facts are mutually exclusive, so to speak.

[I_Like_Movies]

When its time, I will kill blu ray....