Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Agree, but we are not discussing why streaming movies has no chance of going mainstream. Think about it, it is the biggest Internet capacity hog while it is only available in two countries and we are talking about some of the customers of one provider.


We are talking about movies, so growth means growth in revenue from selling or renting more movies.

[edit] I was not going to bother looking for it again since I think I posted it earlier and I was too lazy to look for it again. But EST (streaming and other DL) grew 15.7 percent to $683M, BD grew 68% and sales (unfortunately they don't give rental) where $1.8B http://www.degonline.org/pressreleases/2011/f_Q410.pdf

why do people feel a need to ask if BD will survive when it is more then 3x as big, growing 3x faster and does not have any distribution issues (like you pointed Netflix by itself accounts for 20% of internet traffic right now) [/edit]



that did not say anything about what was DL and what was not. Why would you assume that it is necessarily DL. Also you are missing that Netflix started operations in Canada at the end of Sept

My point in rehashing the recent revelation that Netflix streaming accounts for 20% of total internet bandwidth usage during prime hours was not to suggest that streaming is on the verge of overtaking physical media sales; clearly it is not. My intent was to rebutt your statement that streaming has grown "really slowly" since it debuted in the 90's.

In the early 90's you had CinemaNow and a couple of other services that only offered a very few ancient public domian choices. Compared with today where just ONE service of the many services available is "hogging" 20% of internet bandwidth.

Sure video streaming takes a lot of bandwidth, but so do the activities that millions of other users are engaged in at that same time; like streaming music, bit torrenting, video chatting, youtube, and on and on. For ONE service to account for 20% of usage at any given time is actually a pretty staggering revelation, and would indeed represent vigorous growth since it's infancy when it was surely just a blip in total bandwidth usage.

The assumption that streaming has added to the huge growth in Netflix subscribers in the past couple of years is easy to reach when you look at how many devices Netflix streaming has been added to in that time. XBox 360, PS3, Wii, networked tv's, blu-ray players, phones, tablets, roku and others. Why even bother with all these new options if significant growth is not being seen?

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Sammy

Well I do that too but it still is not related. Some people will be lazy like this without regard to what technology is available. IMHO, there still no relationship between the two. The two facts are mutually exclusive, so to speak.

Regardless of the fact that some people will be lazy no matter the technology, there is a fairly direct correlation between the amount of media one consumes and obesity. And just like the easy availability of food causes obesity, the easy availability of media causes people to consume more of it. Haven't you ever heard the term couch potato?

Kids don't go out and play physically anymore - they stay home and play video games. This increases the incidence of obesity in children. Although one can logically argue that parents don't let their kids out because they don't feel it's safe and as a result the kids play video games, but if video games didn't exist, they might sit on the couch and read a book, but they'd still get obese anyway because of the inactivity. Parents should let their kids out even if it is unsafe - at the very least, they'd be running away from the criminals which would provide them with good exercise.

The fact is whether you consider TV to be intellectually destructive or physically destructive or none of the above, when you're watching TV, you're not doing something else. And whatever that something else is, it's usually better for your health than watching TV. Now excuse me...there's a show I'm missing.

We can laugh about all this, but the fact is that childhood obesity and diabetes are becoming a plague in the United States. If it continues, longevity is going to decline for the first time in 100 years. The costs to treat these diseases are astronomical.

[victorvondoom88]

The fact is whether you consider TV to be intellectually destructive or physically destructive or none of the above, when you're watching TV, you're not doing something else

That's why I love my Tivo ! I spend less time watching TV. No wait I can watch more shows in the same amount of time

I think winter contributes to my fatness more than TV. 5 degrees today what are you going to do in that?

[Sammy]

Just because two things happen at the same time does not mean that they are related. Just like you said, "correlation". All this means is that people are consuming more media and there is a rise in obesity. Observing both occuring simultaneously does not relate them to each other in any way, shape or form. Looking at two sets of unrelated data and seeing a trend in both that is (in this case) upwards and to the right on a graph does not prove causation. It is simply an observation of two sets of data.

There are many other things that directly cause obesity such as the chemicals found in food from the industrial food industry for instance. People in my family consume a considerable amount of media but our lives are balanced in diet and excercise so none of us are obese. So no, the only relation between the two is that they have a similarily shaped graph of data points with respect to time.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming....

[Sammy]

Originally Posted by victorvondoom88

That's why I love my Tivo ! I spend less time watching TV. No wait I can watch more shows in the same amount of time

I think winter contributes to my fatness more than TV. 5 degrees today what are you going to do in that?

Move to California! 78* today...

[bigkatninja]

Why do people keep posting this junk the answer is yes get over it.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by krazeyeyez

It would be netflix, although when i get an xbox again i fully plan to subscribe.

PPV was and is limited... your also paying for a one time use, like renting, you get the movie, watch it and your done... for under $20 a month, netflix is like a cable service only you program what you want to watch.... movies or tv what you want when you want. I watch a movie this week, then in two months i want to watch it again, i can, basically its like having the ability to borrow from a super nerd with everything in existence. They have HD, they have 5.1, i just don't see how this compares in any way to ppv. Maybe at a basic level if you neglect all the other features, options and conveniences.

I am sure people will always buy media, i know i will, but i think streaming is a very real new form of distribution that is becoming more mainstream and accessible every day, and INTEGRATED into every new gadget you buy.

I just think its unfair to say streaming is just ppv, at least imo.

It may be this is a rehash of old arguments, but the variables have and will continue to change in its favor. What seems to be a rehash from my perspective is the doom and gloom of streaming, and internet topping out etc... being comparable to the fud spread during the red blu days. Streaming being built into tvs, game systems, etc.. does not lead me to believe it will just be a once a year ppv option.

thanks for explaining the "it", that is what I thought at first but then youy continued with Netflix on 360 so it threw me a curve.

no one said it is pay per view but R&T's argument is that you can sit on your but, not move from your chair and watch a movie of your choosing when you want, that is true for PPV, every nbew relese is there and there is one starting every 10 minutes or so.

As for proice, Netflix also has a fixed price for disk based renting, do you also not consider it renting. Isn't it like having access to some Nerds movie library? Also Netflix's model is fixed price, Vudu, Apple and others charge per movie, it is not a streaming thing but a Netflix thing.

As for doom and gloom, I don't think anyone has said streaming will go away or that it won't continue growing slowly, on the other hand there are 7B people on this earth and even if we dismiss half of them due to age location and wealth, that still leaves at least 3B people that watch movies, they need to have something to watch.

But let's just look a bit closer to home there are 20M Netflix users (streaming and disk) and now their streaming comprises 20% of internet usage. These are the facts. There are also over 100M households in the US alone. Do the math, there is no way the internet can support even 1/2 of them moving to streaming any time soon. And so far we only looked at one simple aspect of it. Even if forget if the internet can support it, there are rural areas where calling it high speed internet is a joke.

[Uniquely]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

no one said it is pay per view but R&T's argument is that you can sit on your but, not move from your chair and watch a movie of your choosing when you want, that is true for PPV, every nbew relese is there and there is one starting every 10 minutes or so.

Not even close.

PPV.... MAYBE 30 choices.... all new releases.... all mainstream theatrical releases.

Streaming services.... hundreds to thousands of choices... many different ages, many different genres.

[Blu-ray Neo]

Blu-ray will be around for years to come. The argument that Blu-ray will fall to streaming is just downright moronic. Tell that to the tens of millions of people that purchased 1080p HDTV's, PS3's, and other BD players. Aside from that fact, there are literally millions of people that do NOT have access to broadband internet and the internet companies don't really have the tech just yet to stream BD quality audio/video.

You may try and argue that I'm a minority, but that's a baseless argument. I'm the majority. HDTV adoption has tripled over the last 2 years and is expected to continue growing. Blu-ray adoption is growing slowly, but steadily. I think the biggest cause for the slow reception to BD is pretty clear unless you're Rip Van Winkle.

With the economy in the toliet and national unemployment rate being in the 18% range, that would have an effect on people's spending habits wouldn't you say?

A majority of Americans (myself included) will always support a physical form of media. I have over 4,000 DVD's and I'm approaching the 400 mark with Blu-ray. Sometimes I enjoy just looking at my bookshelf and showing others my collection.

As a former HD DVD supporter, Blu-ray is going to be the dominant form of media available. PERIOD! They're not going anywhere.

[DJ Manyak]

This thread is a great read just for the fact people whom are arguing BD will die are part of a Blu ray forum and purchase Blu rays as well as any BD related equipment.

Ha ha ha ha

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by victorvondoom88

I think winter contributes to my fatness more than TV. 5 degrees today what are you going to do in that?

Let's just put it this way. I'm sure the maternity wards will be standing room only in 8-9 months.

[frogmort]

Q: "So my question is, even though majority of the people on this site enjoy having a physic copy of the films we purchase, in years down the road will home media become as obsolete as CDs have become or will people still want to have a physic movie collection?"

A: I still prefer CDs, or lossless audio files to compressed,lossy files.

I also still prefer to physically own certain things.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Sammy

I happen to agree with you on the statement about computers and such. The thing is that if Moore's Law and it's corrolaries are are found to be true then it will happen. There is a limit but we're not there yet....Snipped from the wikipedia article on Moore's Law (one of the corrolaries).

well scientificvaly they are just conjectures. But let's assume it is right for the sake of argument

1) this is true in theory, so completely useless. To help explain let me go with an allegory. You can buy a 152" Panasonic 3D TV right now, I think that is the best TV on the market. Do you think everyone has one or will get one soon? No? why? it costs a lot of money to buy a new TV especially one that is cutting edge and most pe
ople can't afford to do it just because something bigger and better just came out. The same is true for Network owners, even if new equipment that doubles the capacity do come out every 9 months the network providers can't afford to junk everything and even if they could it would take time.

2) this only deals with the network capabilities, it does not deal with what is needed. I know DL proponents like to think everyone or even a lot of people are using it today, but hardly anyone is. Even if capabilities double every 9 months (which I explained is based on a faulty assumption), it would still take over 5 years before 50% of movie watching can be done that way, even using today’s Netflix specs (i.e. limited to mostly bad SD, no 3D, no lossless sound….)

[victorvondoom88]

Originally Posted by frogmort

Q: "So my question is, even though majority of the people on this site enjoy having a physic copy of the films we purchase, in years down the road will home media become as obsolete as CDs have become or will people still want to have a physic movie collection?"

A: I still prefer CDs, or lossless audio files to compressed,lossy files.

I also still prefer to physically own certain things.

When did CD's become obsolete? Still seems to be plenty of them to buy brand new and there are new releases every Tues.

[victorvondoom88]

Originally Posted by Rob71

Let's just put it this way. I'm sure the maternity wards will be standing room only in 8-9 months.

I bet your right Lol!

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

My point in rehashing the recent revelation that Netflix streaming accounts for 20% of total internet bandwidth usage during prime hours was not to suggest that streaming is on the verge of overtaking physical media sales; clearly it is not. My intent was to rebutt your statement that streaming has grown "really slowly" since it debuted in the 90's.

PPV started in the 90's. I pointed you to the DEG article, EST which includes Netflix, Vudu, AppleTV and any other legal DL/streaming services grew from 2009 to 2010around 15%. BD grew around 70% in that same time frame do you think 15% is a lot?

. Compared with today where just ONE service of the many services available is "hogging" 20% of internet bandwidth.

but how is that relevant to how much people watch? If someone started a service where they digitaly transmit BD size/quality (i.e. the exact same files that are on the BD) will it use a lot more then Netflix if it transmits the same amount of movies as Netflix? how about if it sends uncompressed video and PCM 7.1? GB does not mean content.

Sure video streaming takes a lot of bandwidth, but so do the activities that millions of other users are engaged in at that same time; like streaming music, bit torrenting, video chatting, youtube, and on and on. For ONE service to account for 20% of usage at any given time is actually a pretty staggering revelation, and would indeed represent vigorous growth since it's infancy when it was surely just a blip in total bandwidth usage.

in BW yes, in movies no, how hard is that to understand. You are making the point why DL can't go mainstream for a very long time
on the other hand I find it funny that you try and compare streaming movies to streaming music
.

The assumption that streaming has added to the huge growth in Netflix subscribers in the past couple of years is easy to reach when you look at how many devices Netflix streaming has been added to in that time. XBox 360, PS3, Wii, networked tv's, blu-ray players, phones, tablets, roku and others. Why even bother with all these new options if significant growth is not being seen?

why does it? How many PS3's, 360 or Wii sold in the US & Canada? Obviously most of them are not used for streaming According to Wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Console_wars there where over 30M Wii over 18.6M 360 and 12M PS3. Obviously most where not used for Netflix, even all the users put together don't come close to those numbers.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by robinandtami

Not even close.

PPV.... MAYBE 30 choices.... all new releases.... all mainstream theatrical releases.

Streaming services.... hundreds to thousands of choices... many different ages, many different genres.

Yes, like I said PPV is limited to new releases (then again those are the most popular). But let me ask you this forget your fanatic love of Netflix for one second and answer me this. PPV existed long before Netflix and Redbox. So let’s go back to those early years where the choices for a rental of the top 30 new releases where PPV and the rental store. Why didn’t everyone just watch the PPV but they went to the corner rental place and rent those same new movies? Ifd people where as lazy as you think then rental places would have dropped new releases a long time ago.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by victorvondoom88

When did CD's become obsolete? Still seems to be plenty of them to buy brand new and there are new releases every Tues.

he is quoting the OP, and yes it is a dumb statement.

[icyteddy]

The Holodeck will replace Blu ray not digital streaming

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Yes, like I said PPV is limited to new releases (then again those are the most popular). But let me ask you this forget your fanatic love of Netflix for one second and answer me this. PPV existed long before Netflix and Redbox. So let’s go back to those early years where the choices for a rental of the top 30 new releases where PPV and the rental store. Why didn’t everyone just watch the PPV but they went to the corner rental place and rent those same new movies? Ifd people where as lazy as you think then rental places would have dropped new releases a long time ago.

Traditionally PPV and VOD have been subject to a delay after the DVD release date.

It's only relatively recently that some studios have released titles on PPV/VOD at the same time as DVD/Blu Ray release dates.

So (in the past) if you wanted the latest release, no choice but to head to the video store.

Warner was amoung the 1st studios to go big with day&date VOD (http://www.tvpredictions.com/twvod050208.htm) and next up there will be 'premium' VOD ahead of DVD release date (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...d-service.html)

By the way, while there are a small set of "PPV" titles offered by Cableco's, their VOD offerings are usually in the many hundreds of titles... or more (http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/...64A3PD20100511)