Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[psx3man]

For me personally if everything was DL only than i wouldnt see the need for me to buy a movie again. What is so exciting about telling people you know that you have 500 movies on a hard drive. Wow that is so cool not. And they say i have netflix with thousands of movies on my computer and thats only $8 a month. Whats the difference.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

Are you serious!? We have 9 years and 9 months left until the decade ends. Compare todays tech to 2001, tell me there isn't room for another giant leap in the next 10 years.

1) it is not just one giant leap that is needed. it is many giant leaps or a super mega ginormous leap.
2) you are missing the other side of the equations. Why don't you compare todays movie tech to what was available in 2001?


Simply put today it would impossible to moveto everyone having access to DVD quality distribution over the internet but tDVD quality was 10 years ago in acceptable quality, In 10 years maybe the internet would be able to handle DVD quality, but it most likely would not be able to handle BD quality for everything and definetly not to something better, which is what I hope will be available.

Not true at all. I'm buying a MediaHub this week that plays EVERY single file format imaginable (for videos, music, and photos), while also having many internet apps. It costs $200, I'm going to add a 2TB internal drive for $80. That's far more economical than a lot of blu-ray player on the market.

1) there are many BD players out there at less then 280$

2) 2TB won't even come close to handle a BD collection. What is that less then 50BD items, I have 700, so how much will the 14 2TB drives cost? adds up fast doesn't it?

3) I don't know what you bought, but what happens if some other format is created? after all, any new DL service could use new codecs and will definitely have some form of encryption and it is most likely not on your player already.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

This is how I know you have no idea what you're talking about. A good 1080 rip can range anywhere from 4GBs, to 15GBs. For simplicity, let's say the average 1080p file is 10GBs....that's 200 movies on a 2TB drive.

are you nuts? I am sorry, good 1080p needs more then BD, BD is acceptable because it is the best that is available and no other reason. I am curious is your whole idea of what things should look like coming from watching shakycam pirated movies. I can't imagine anyone that has actually seen a BD or a movie in a theatre going with such a ridiculous notion.

[MrFattBill]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

This is how I know you have no idea what you're talking about. A good 1080 rip can range anywhere from 4GBs, to 15GBs. For simplicity, let's say the average 1080p file is 10GBs....that's 200 movies on a 2TB drive.

Psst before casting that stone....a 2TB drive is only 1.81GB of usable space formated with NTFS (I deal with storage and video everyday) I am also going to point out that making anything worth watching fit within 4GB, hell even 10GB, takes time, effort and know how, at least one of which the average person will be laking.

Carry on.

Bill

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

What are you going on about? Where the hell are your sources that say otherwise?

because anyone can google music market share and soon realize that once you remove all the propaganda and BS that DL music is still a smaller part of the market. DL was 35.5% of the US market in Q1 2010 http://www.tuaw.com/2010/05/24/itune...wells-to-26-7/

And at the end of Q1 2011 internationally http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...sic-sales-fall

CD was 10.4 bn while DL was only 4.6bn and total (don't forget there are records as well) 15.9


So it is crazy to qualify as dead somethiong that still comprises most of the sales

[mywhitenoise]

Originally Posted by Rob71

The following are a few artists CD Sales vs Their Digital Sales to date as of 12/27/09.

Lady GaGa - 2.3 mil overall :: 430k digitally

Taylor Swift - 5.3 mil overall :: 329k digitally

Jay-Z - 1.5 mil overall :: 300k digitally

Black Eyed Peas - 1.7 mil overall :: 298k digitally

Eminem - 1.7 mil overall :: 268k digitally

John Mayer - 666k overall :: 201k digitally

Kelly Clarkson - 810k overall :: 168k digitally

Pink - 1.5 mil overall :: 136k digitally

Paramore - 391k overall :: 114k digitally

Beyonce - 2.6 mil overall :: 100k digitally

Maxwell - 941k overall :: 88k digitally

Rihanna - 459k overall :: 82k digitally

Susan Boyle - 3 mil overall :: 81k digitally

Alicia Keys - 699k overall :: 73k digitally

Trey Songz - 423k overall :: 71k digitally

50 Cent - 334k overall :: 69k digitally

Justin Bieber - 676k overall :: 63k digitally

Mary J. Blige - 332k overall :: 30k digitally

Mariah Carey - 386k overall :: 41k digitally

Whitney Houston - 903k overall :: 81k digitally

I have no problem thinking that now, one year later the numbers may shift towards digital a bit, but all this doom and gloom talk about the end of physical media is just that. Talk. If a format that is tailor made for digital, music, can't kill off CD's in over a decade, what would be the evidence that physical discs would disappear for video. There is right now no ownership model for digital that even comes close to the ease of ownership of discs. Sorry, but banks of HDD's and Raid setups are not mass market friendly. And as of now, storing your films "in the cloud" sounds good on paper I guess, but before I put one dime into it, I'm going to need to see it in operation. Add to that the dismal broadband access rates in America, let alone the world and I don't see anyone interested in turning a profit not releasing on disc for decades, with an s.

Yeah, but look at how "bad" those sales are in comparison to 10 years ago. Lady Gaga only at 2 million physical albums sold!? That surprises the hell out of me.
I can't stand her music, but she is the biggest pop star in the world right now. If that was released in the 90's, it would have sold 10 million.

::EDIT:: Just realized those stats are from late 2009, she's probably sold a lot more in the last year.

[mywhitenoise]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

no, because I want my movies all over the place, I want to be able to watch them in my HT or my BR or FR or bring them with me when I am out of my home (like this weekend when I was visiting friends in Toronto or the summer when I go to the cottage by the lake......)

What exactly is your point? A hard drive is about as big as a 2 blu-rays. It's not extremely hard carrying around...caveman!

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

What exactly is your point? A hard drive is about as big as a 2 blu-rays. It's not extremely hard carrying around...caveman!

I never said an HDD is big, but it can't be in two places at the same time, an HDD is much more susceptible to damage and assuming we are not talking an external drive it is harder to take out. But to clarify, if you live by yourself and don't have familly/friends over then I would agree with you (and not worried that mistreating the HDD could lose all your movies). But for the rest of us, that is not true. Hasn't it happened to you that you want to watch one thing and someone else something else in a different room? hasn't it ever happened that some of the embers are away while others are at home?

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

By the end of this decade, it will be gone.

I loved my physical media, but you have to admit...it's pretty cool owning a digital library on one hard drive/device. It's similar to having your entire music library on your iPod.

After buying over 150 blu-rays, I think I'm going to stop (unless it's a must own movie) and just start running everything through a Media Hub.

There is nothing cool about "owning" a digital library. What is cool is taking that awesome LP I bought in the early 70s and looking at the amazing artwork while listening to it.

The people who would argue that physical media would die soon are the same people who argued that email would replace conventional mail. Last time I checked - and this would be exactly this past December - there was so much mail, the post office could not deliver it on time.

To me, ownership and physical media go hand and in hand. It is that simple.

Pro-B

[mywhitenoise]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I never said an HDD is big, but it can't be in two places at the same time, an HDD is much more susceptible to damage and assuming we are not talking an external drive it is harder to take out. But to clarify, if you live by yourself and don't have familly/friends over then I would agree with you (and not worried that mistreating the HDD could lose all your movies). But for the rest of us, that is not true. Hasn't it happened to you that you want to watch one thing and someone else something else in a different room? hasn't it ever happened that some of the embers are away while others are at home?

I don't mean a bare bones drive. I mean one enclosed in a media hub, like this
http://www.popcornhour.com/onlinesto...&mainItemId=24

You can't have a blu-ray 2 places at once either...and if you're moving a blu-ray movie (then that's assuming there's a blu-ray player), just unplug the HDMI from the blu-ray player and hook it up to the media hub.

[mywhitenoise]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

The people who would argue that physical media would die soon are the same people who argued that email would replace conventional mail. Last time I checked - and this would be exactly this past December - there was so much mail the post office could not deliver it on time.

I NEVER get any mail, unless it's a bill or a package from ebay or Amazon (UPS, OnTrac). How do I pay those bills? I use Online Bill Pay.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

I NEVER get any mail, unless it's a bill or a package from ebay or Amazon (UPS, OnTrac). How do I pay those bills? I use Online Bill Pay.

So, you DO get mail.

On the other hand, I never pay to "own" films or music or books unless I can hold them in my hands.

Newsflash: physical media will die the day when all people radically change their perception about ownership -- and this day ain't coming any time soon. Centuries later people still buy books and send letters. I feel pretty confident that people would do the same for another century, more than likely even a couple more.

Book my post. And if things change, come back to tell me I was wrong

Pro-B

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

You can't have a blu-ray 2 places at once either...

why would you need to? The issue is you assume that all the content is on one drive/device in the DL model? That is obviously not true for BD. If wife/gf wants to watch ,for example, sex in the city and you want to watch a good film that she is not interested in then it makes sense that she will watch it on one display in one room and you in an other room. On the other hand if you both want to watch the same film at the same time why would it be in different rooms? Now if you mean away and at home, then yes I guess two people could be interested in the same movie, but every time that has happened we just wait to be together.

[Bishop_99]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

Yeah, but look at how "bad" those sales are in comparison to 10 years ago. Lady Gaga only at 2 million physical albums sold!? That surprises the hell out of me.
I can't stand her music, but she is the biggest pop star in the world right now. If that was released in the 90's, it would have sold 10 million.

::EDIT:: Just realized those stats are from late 2009, she's probably sold a lot more in the last year.

But the thing is that when legal digital downloads came around, they did nothing to help the music industry in terms of sales. Like you said, that artist would have likely sold 10 million units in the late 90's, but now 2 to 3 million is the best the top artists can do. The point he was trying to make is that if digital is the unquestionable future and the CD format is dead, the digital format failed to stop the massive decline in album sales since the late 90's, and even to this day, CD albums still manage to greatly outsell the legal digital albums.

[mywhitenoise]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

why would you need to? The issue is you assume that all the content is on one drive/device in the DL model? That is obviously not true for BD. If wife/gf wants to watch ,for example, sex in the city and you want to watch a good film that she is not interested in then it makes sense that she will watch it on one display in one room and you in an other room. On the other hand if you both want to watch the same film at the same time why would it be in different rooms? Now if you mean away and at home, then yes I guess two people could be interested in the same movie, but every time that has happened we just wait to be together.

Because you said this

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I never said an HDD is big, but it can't be in two places at the same time

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

Yeah, but look at how "bad" those sales are in comparison to 10 years ago. Lady Gaga only at 2 million physical albums sold!? That surprises the hell out of me.
I can't stand her music, but she is the biggest pop star in the world right now. If that was released in the 90's, it would have sold 10 million.

::EDIT:: Just realized those stats are from late 2009, she's probably sold a lot more in the last year.

does it matter? either the numbers are so bad that the music industry collapses and there is no more music, or they will produce what sales. Right, if God came down and said "pick physical media or DL and in two seconds all the sales from the other choice will disappear" do you think the music industry will say "mywhitenoise said CD is dead and records niche so we will give up that market" when it is bigger then the DL market?

I get your point, there is a lot of pirating. but that is immaterial to record labels because they produce for the people that buy.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

Because you said this

yes but the HDD device has many movies while a BD only has one. So it is important that you can't have a HDD device in two places while it is irrelevant that you can't have a BD in two places. If you and the rest of the household want to watch skyline then it does not matter if it is on one HDD device and one BD since you all watch it together in the same room. If some people want to watch one movie and others a different one then they will be on different BDs and they can be watch in different rooms, on the other hand with an HDD device that has both those movies on it, it cannot be done.

[Cevolution]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

Yeah, but look at how "bad" those sales are in comparison to 10 years ago. Lady Gaga only at 2 million physical albums sold!? That surprises the hell out of me.
I can't stand her music, but she is the biggest pop star in the world right now. If that was released in the 90's, it would have sold 10 million.

::EDIT:: Just realized those stats are from late 2009, she's probably sold a lot more in the last year.

Piracy is the biggest reason that music sales have dropped over the last decade, most people who download aren't downloading music (or movies and games) because they prefer digital downloads over physical media, but rather because they can get digital downloads for free illegally. To be honest most of the people I know who illegally download still prefer to burn their media to blank discs after downloading them rather than storing it all on hard drives. Hypothetically, if illegal downloading and piracy was eliminated overnight, and we only had the option to purchase either physical media or digital downloads, then most people would make the jump back to cd's, because in most circumstances when people pay for things they want ownership and to be able to hold in their hands what they have spent their hard earned money on. People don't usually care too much about ownership when they are getting stuff like movies, music and games for free, because they don't have the same emotions as they do when spending their own money on things.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by mywhitenoise

Yeah, but look at how "bad" those sales are in comparison to 10 years ago. Lady Gaga only at 2 million physical albums sold!? That surprises the hell out of me.
I can't stand her music, but she is the biggest pop star in the world right now. If that was released in the 90's, it would have sold 10 million.

::EDIT:: Just realized those stats are from late 2009, she's probably sold a lot more in the last year.

But those are sales of physical discs vs digital. Can you not see the disparity in the numbers? That is the best digital can do with over a decade of trying? What makes you think that it will be any different for films on disc? In that market digital is doing much, much worse.

[MrFattBill]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

yes but the HDD device has many movies while a BD only has one. So it is important that you can't have a HDD device in two places while it is irrelevant that you can't have a BD in two places. If you and the rest of the household want to watch skyline then it does not matter if it is on one HDD device and one BD since you all watch it together in the same room. If some people want to watch one movie and others a different one then they will be on different BDs and they can be watch in different rooms, on the other hand with an HDD device that has both those movies on it, it cannot be done.

I agree that I don't think physical media is going any where soon but I'm just going to point out that if the HD is hooked to a network via a NAS or PC then anyone one can watch any movie in any room at anytime so long as they have the supporting hardware....we have this already, it's called Netflix

Bill