Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Captainhawk1]

This whole thread has officially bored the shit out of me.

[ole geezer]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

No.

1. You wanted to know why would a studio sign exclusive distribution rights to a retailer like Walmart. The answer, which you had a difficult time understanding, is now confirmed by a clear quote - because Blu-ray sales are strong. In other words, exclusivity makes sense. Unfortunately, it does not to you...

https://forum.blu-ray.com/newreply.p...eply&p=4884231

Strong...huh. Optical sales in general look kinda grim to me according to what I see on these charts.

It's because sales are so bad that we get bargains such as these $10 Walmart catalog exclusives. The worse sales get...the better the bargains for Blu-ray consumers.

Walmart's getting in a number of these exclusive ole catalog titles that I want and are selling 'em for $10 bucks each, BUT, I have a suspicion that on Black Friday, we might see these exclusives BR's go 2 for 1 for $10, so I'm gonna wait.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Cevolution

A lot of young people travel around a lot moving from place to place

trying to put right what once went wrong, and hoping each time that their next leap... will be the leap home.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ole geezer

https://forum.blu-ray.com/newreply.p...eply&p=4884231

Strong...huh. Optical sales in general look kinda grim to me according to what I see on these charts.

It's because sales are so bad that we get bargains such as these $10 Walmart catalog exclusives. The worse sales get...the better the bargains for Blu-ray consumers.

Walmart's getting in a number of these exclusive ole catalog titles that I want and are selling 'em for $10 bucks each, BUT, I have a suspicion that on Black Friday, we might see these exclusives BR's go 2 for 1 for $10, so I'm gonna wait.

I don't get you man, you reach a contradiction, the guy explains where you went wrong and then instead of trying to understand you want to remain with your pre-conceived wrong notion.


Simple fact is that it cost money to a studio to make a BD master, the store with the exclusivity window pays for it, if neither of them where making money they would not be doing these deals. How hard is that to understand. Since these deals happen that means your premise must be wrong. On the other hand look how far you must go to continue your delusion that BD sales are week and so not worth it, you link to a chart and focus on the DVD numbers but not the BD which are constantly growing from year to year.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

You won't find a single post of mine where I ever said that Blu-ray is doomed. And something can "last" without having growth or being successful. And I happen to be a big fan of Blu-ray (look to your left and you'll see I own 63 titles) and I truly appreciate high quality PQ and AQ. I was one of those people who would only see a movie in a theatre with the "best" presentation quality and if a film was playing in 70mm, would not even think about seeing a 35mm version. I would be obsessive if the presentation quality wasn't "perfect", frequently complaining to the projectionist or theatre management. (And for the record, I'm an ex-recording engineer).

But I'm also realistic about Blu-ray's prospects, I've been in the industry for decades and I understand business analysis.

This is a forum to discuss Blu-ray so it's intellectually dishonest to accuse me of being obsessed with anything concerning Blu-ray and I've never written a single negative word about any BD title that I own. And I certainly post far less than many other people on here, averaging only slightly more than a post per day. But when people write fanboy garbage that has absolutely no basis in fact, I'm going to respond to it because I don't like hype. As another example, I'm a fan of vinyl LPs and still have about 500 with a perfectly working turntable in my living room. But I don't go onto forums and claim that vinyl is "coming back" and is a big success, because it's not. In 2010, it comprised 1.18% of long form units and 1.27% of U.S. industry dollars. That's a rounding error. Yes, units increased 25% over 2009, but the base is so small that it's meaningless. It's clearly a niche format in spite of the hype.

I'm not a supporter of compressed formats. My point has not been that download quality is good (it's certainly not), it's been that the mass market considers it good enough and doesn't care about the quality of BD any more than the mass market cares about eating fine food and instead is perfectly happy eating in fast food chains. The fact is that it's actually quite rare when the mass market wants quality - the rare occasions when art meet commerce. Remember, we're a country where the largest private employer is Wal-Mart.

People talk about the supposed success of BD without backing up their comments with sales figures. The FACTS are that through 5/28/11, BD is only 10.75% ahead of last year to date and only has a 20.3% share of physical media. It's also a very hit-driven business with the fifth best-selling title typically selling only 6-10% of the top title in any week and the 20th best-selling title selling only 2-3% of the #1 title. That's not good enough performance and does place the future of BD in danger. BD has to have broad-based sales and have catalog titles that sell healthily, otherwise the studios will lose interest and move on to something else that has greater returns. People on here always complain about some great classic title that hasn't been released on BD yet. But the reason why is that if the studios don't think it's going to be a top-5 title, the sales are so small, it's frequently not worth the bother as compared with other efforts.

So take off your fanboy hat and put on your business analyst hat, face reality and maybe you won't take so much offense at what I write. No one would be happier than I if BD became a really big success. I think some of the releases later this year, like Star Wars, will help get it there.

I have asked you time after time to name the thing that's going to replace Blu-Ray. You have never answered. Why?

If Blu-Ray is as in trouble as you claim, it should be easy to name the thing that will replace it. But you continue to ignore the question.

It doesn't take a Blu-Ray fanboy to know that the growth of Blu-Ray is better than that of DVD AND better than Digital Downloads. So what's your 3rd alternative? Or are you really a Digital Downloads fanboy who can't look past YOUR preconceptions to be convinced that the smaller market/smaller growing item really is the thing that's a threat to Blu-Ray? Or do you think Studios will choose to go back to a (slowly) dying DVD? *EDIT* Or are you one who believes that PPV/rental style downloads are a direct competitor to Blu-Ray?

For all the stats you name about how "slowly" Blu-Ray is growing, NAME THE THING GROWING FASTER.

[ole geezer]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I don't get you man, you reach a contradiction, the guy explains where you went wrong and then instead of trying to understand you want to remain with your pre-conceived wrong notion.

I'm afraid that with your attitude...you're going to go through your entire life totally incapable of understanding anyone or anything.

Simple fact is that it cost money to a studio to make a BD master, the store with the exclusivity window pays for it....

I can't be as certain as you, but it's my belief that exclusive Walmart titles such as The Big Country are using HD masters prepared years ago for broadcast TV. I know for a fact that this title has been repeated aired on HDNMV for several years. I think you're wrong in assuming that Walmart paid for a new master and it's very probable that the studio ain't going to go through the added expense of creating a new HD master for this title. Just call it a hunch.

...if neither of them where making money they would not be doing these deals. How hard is that to understand. Since these deals happen that means your premise must be wrong.

Honestly...I don't think you have the foggiest notion of what I'm talking about and if I thought it would do either of us any good, I'd explain further...but I don't.

On the other hand look how far you must go to continue your delusion that BD sales are week and so not worth it, you link to a chart and focus on the DVD numbers but not the BD which are constantly growing from year to year.

Just take another really good look at that chart without that fanboy baggage.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ole geezer

I can't be as certain as you, but it's my belief that exclusive Walmart titles such as The Big Country are using HD masters prepared years ago for broadcast TV. I know for a fact that this title has been repeated aired on HDNMV for several years. I think you're wrong in assuming that Walmart paid for a new master and it's very probable that the studio ain't going to go through the added expense of creating a new HD master for this title. Just call it a hunch.

I did not say WM paid for the new master. They paid for the priviledge of the exclusivity window. As to "old master", it depends what you mean. If you mean film master/digital master. Then maybe, but that is not important, if you mean encoded master, then it would be 1080i (there are no old TV 1080p masters), but what ever happens a BD master needs to be created and the studio has that expense because it is the only way to stamp disks.

Just take another really good look at that chart without that fanboy baggage.

why don't you show me on the chart where BD is not doing well. The only thing concerning BD says it grew by 12.3% over last year. Now if you point the DVD numbers that are dropping? then yes they are not good for DVD but who cares about DVD? This is a BD discussion. Find a chart with BD catalogue sales being bad and then I would agree with you.

[partridge]

ah, the good old "you're just a fan boy" argument; the get out of jail free card for those times when your side of the argument has been blown apart.

It seems to me that actually it's the whole entertainment industry that is seeing a dip in sales, not specifically blu-ray or DVD, but every type of media, while the Western world continues to experience a financial pinch.

Sure there are plenty of people with the money to buy what they want, but there are a lot more who are putting off buying a new blu-ray/DVD in preference to something else more important.

If more of us were in a position to splash the cash and not worry about it, we'd be buying more blu's and DVD's, probably more music, probably going to the cinema more, eating out more, etc, etc.

The argument that blu-ray is failing, etc, would only stand up if it was 100% crystal clear that those "lost" sales were instead going to downloads. But it seems to me that they are simply lost sales due to consumers tightening their belts. In my experience downloads tend to cost more than retail anyway!

It wouldn't hurt for blu-ray prices to drop to the same level as DVD's though. I don't see why I should pay more for blu anymore.

[Anthony P]

It seems to me that actually it's the whole entertainment industry that is seeing a dip in sales, not specifically blu-ray or DVD, but every type of media, while the Western world continues to experience a financial pinch.

I don't think it is that, I just think people are unrealistic. Back when DVD was young, you had rental outlets that had several copies of new releaseds for 6$ a day, now you can have Netflix as many films as you can go through in a month for <10$ you have redbox for 1-2$. Plus the simple fact that if someone bought a catalogue title he does not need to re-buy it every years. It is just normal that with the price drops for buying, the much better rental options and that a mouvie bought is seldome one that will be bought again that over time from when sales where at the highest they would be lower now.

It wouldn't hurt for blu-ray prices to drop to the same level as DVD's though. I don't see why I should pay more for blu anymore.

because it is better, it is the same reason that a Ferrarie costs more then a Civic or DVds cost more then VHS until VHS was dropped. They want to get rid of the excess inventory of DVD plus only poor people that don't care about quality are still buying DVDs.

[AintNoSin]

Originally Posted by partridge

It wouldn't hurt for blu-ray prices to drop to the same level as DVD's though. I don't see why I should pay more for blu anymore.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

because it is better, it is the same reason that a Ferrarie costs more then a Civic or DVds cost more then VHS until VHS was dropped.

That's part of it, but I think it has more to do with the fact that the development costs for DVD as a format have pretty much been paid off. No one is spending more money on DVD, no new plants, no new software, etc, so a lot of the costs associated with that have disappeared. Blu-ray is newer and people are still ramping up, writing better mastering software, buying new equipment, expanding pressing plants, blah, blah, blah.

It's the same reason that new DVDs and BDs are more expensive than similar titles from last year. New titles still have to pay for creating and mastering the content on the disk. A title that's been on the shelf for two or three years no longer has to pay off that upfront cost, so the price drops.

Blu-ray will never quite catch up to DVD. By the time Blu-ray is as cheap as DVD is now, DVD will barely exist as a format.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by AintNoSin

That's part of it, but I think it has more to do with the fact that the development costs for DVD as a format have pretty much been paid off. No one is spending more money on DVD, no new plants, no new software, etc, so a lot of the costs associated with that have disappeared. Blu-ray is newer and people are still ramping up, writing better mastering software, buying new equipment, expanding pressing plants, blah, blah, blah.

It's the same reason that new DVDs and BDs are more expensive than similar titles from last year. New titles still have to pay for creating and mastering the content on the disk. A title that's been on the shelf for two or three years no longer has to pay off that upfront cost, so the price drops.

Blu-ray will never quite catch up to DVD. By the time Blu-ray is as cheap as DVD is now, DVD will barely exist as a format.

I don't disagree that making back R&D & initial investment is always part of the plan, but in the end price is determined by what people are willing to pay. That is why DVD will always be cheaper.
As for new titles, it is the same thing. The person that really wants something will pay the "new title price" but the guy that is not willing to pay that much might still buy it, so once the "new price" people bought something the price drops so that the high price people will buy and then the middle price and then the low price people that shop the garbage bin.

[partridge]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

plus only poor people that don't care about quality are still buying DVDs.

Er, riiiight, damn those poor people who don't appreciate quality, I say round 'em up, put 'em in a field and bomb the b@$t@ds!

Blu-ray may be the pinnacle of home theatre, but a grainy old black and white film in mono is still perfectly enjoyable to watch. That's how plenty of people feel about blu-ray, DVD is perfectly good enough, especially when upscaled, so why pay more? If the price was the same they'd be far more likely to go for blu and that would do wonders for making blu-ray the default home entertainment format.

DVD had no competition, it was clearly better than VHS and once the player prices settled down it was a no brainer to buy one. Blu-ray has competition all over the place, not just alternative formats but alternative entertainment in the form of videogames on every platform there is!

A price drop across the board would make a big difference to sales. I know I would buy more blu if the standard price was £10 ($16)

[octagon]

Originally Posted by partridge

It wouldn't hurt for blu-ray prices to drop to the same level as DVD's though. I don't see why I should pay more for blu anymore.

I'm not entirely sure we are paying more for blu anymore.

Let me clarify - I know the DVD of say The King's Speech is cheaper than the BD of The King's Speech. I get that.

What I'm wondering though is whether the current new and catalog BD prices are all that higher than the new and catalog DVD prices of previous years when DVD was the top format.

I haven't the information (nor honestly the inclination) do some sort of statistical comparison but I'm getting a stronger and stronge impression that new BD releases price points are probably on par with previous generations of new DVD releases and BD catalog releases prices have or are at least beginning to drop.

Those would be interesting numbers in which to nose around, I would think.

[partridge]

I understand what you're saying; once upon a time DVD prices were higher than they are now. So is it fair to compare a ten year old format to a four year old one?

I just think that sales would improve if DVD and blu-ray were the same price, I can't believe blu-ray still costs more to produce than DVD, the presses are out there, the mastering software is out there, so how hard can it be to make a blu-ray when it's perfectly possible to create one at home (with the right kit).

[Cevolution]

Originally Posted by partridge

Er, riiiight, damn those poor people who don't appreciate quality, I say round 'em up, put 'em in a field and bomb the b@$t@ds!

Blu-ray may be the pinnacle of home theatre, but a grainy old black and white film in mono is still perfectly enjoyable to watch. That's how plenty of people feel about blu-ray, DVD is perfectly good enough, especially when upscaled, so why pay more? If the price was the same they'd be far more likely to go for blu and that would do wonders for making blu-ray the default home entertainment format.

DVD had no competition, it was clearly better than VHS and once the player prices settled down it was a no brainer to buy one. Blu-ray has competition all over the place, not just alternative formats but alternative entertainment in the form of videogames on every platform there is!

A price drop across the board would make a big difference to sales. I know I would buy more blu if the standard price was £10 ($16)

Originally Posted by partridge

I understand what you're saying; once upon a time DVD prices were higher than they are now. So is it fair to compare a ten year old format to a four year old one?

I just think that sales would improve if DVD and blu-ray were the same price, I can't believe blu-ray still costs more to produce than DVD, the presses are out there, the mastering software is out there, so how hard can it be to make a blu-ray when it's perfectly possible to create one at home (with the right kit).

What u are saying is not completely accurate, because prices of both dvd's and blu-rays are different depending on what country u live in. Just take a look at these photo I have attached which were taken about 4-6 weeks ago (to show another member on here how much we still pay here in Australia for both dvd's and blu-rays) at 1 of Australia's biggest retail chains that sells movies. They are of 4 movies, 2 dvd's, and 2 blu-rays of the same 2 movies. As u will see, the blu-ray version of Skyline is only $2 more expensive than the dvd version, and the blu-ray version of Salt is $16 cheaper than the dvd version. I can go and take plenty of other photos showing comparisons, and in more than half of those examples the blu-ray versions will be and are cheaper than the dvd versions of the same movie.

[partridge]

In my experience it is completely accurate because every shop, online or not, that I visit sells blu-ray at a higher price than the DVD equivalent.

When comparing the price of a brand new release on both formats I'd be amazed if the blu-ray is cheaper or even priced the same. We're being charged for the extra resolution and all I'm arguing is that for blu-ray to really hit the masses it needs to be the same price, otherwise anyone "on the blu-ray fence" will stick with DVD, but if they saw new releases at the same price it could be all the incentive they need to pick up a blu-ray player and make the transition to HD

[Cevolution]

Originally Posted by partridge

In my experience it is completely accurate because every shop, online or not, that I visit sells blu-ray at a higher price than the DVD equivalent.

When comparing the price of a brand new release on both formats I'd be amazed if the blu-ray is cheaper or even priced the same. We're being charged for the extra resolution and all I'm arguing is that for blu-ray to really hit the masses it needs to be the same price, otherwise anyone "on the blu-ray fence" will stick with DVD, but if they saw new releases at the same price it could be all the incentive they need to pick up a blu-ray player and make the transition to HD

In your experience, well in my experience it's different. I provided u with photos which proves what u are saying is questionable (well at least outside of the UK anyway), u can choose to disregard those examples if u like but that still doesn't change anything. Like I said, here in Australia quite often the blu-ray version of a movie (whether it be a new release or not) is either very close to the same price, is the same price or is cheaper than the DVD version of the same movie. So point being, the prices of blu-rays compared the prices of dvd's in many circumstances means absolutely nothing here in Australia when it comes to people upgrading to blu-ray.

[krazeyeyez]

Your lucky then, while best buy a major american retailer has actually managed to lower some blu's to acceptable prices imo, week after week they advertise things like the harry potter movies (12.99 blu-7.99dvd) and new releases such as tangled and gnomeo and juliet (blu-19.99, dvd 14.99)... and that might not seem like much especially compared to australian prices. However from j6p's perspective that is enough to hold them back from making the change.

Its a hurdle i come across with everyone i try to introduce to blu-ray. Especially when they still advertise blu-rays as high as the $30 price mark, which aside from tv sets and criterions, is a price point dvd has not seen in a long long time. Its a misconception if your an educated consumer as i know i have found new release blu-rays cheaper then the same on dvd however it still fortifies the image of blu-ray costing more, with no real incentive to upgrade as dvd looks so much better on a 46" hdtv then it did on their old 26" sdtv.

Too each their own, i would pay more for a blu any day of the week, but i agree with the person saying if they really want to increase adoption the price of the movies need to drop as the players have been "affordable" for sometime. I would actually be curious to see some numbers on ps3/hdtv combinations in relation to how many are actually being used for blu-ray movies vs only dvd as i would see that as an interesting indicator of how the movie price plays into adoption.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by partridge

In my experience it is completely accurate because every shop, online or not, that I visit sells blu-ray at a higher price than the DVD equivalent.

When comparing the price of a brand new release on both formats I'd be amazed if the blu-ray is cheaper or even priced the same. We're being charged for the extra resolution and all I'm arguing is that for blu-ray to really hit the masses it needs to be the same price, otherwise anyone "on the blu-ray fence" will stick with DVD, but if they saw new releases at the same price it could be all the incentive they need to pick up a blu-ray player and make the transition to HD

But the price difference is because BD is superior. If you looked at DVD vs VHS back in the day, even though it would cost a studio much more to produce the VHS copy (more in material - more plastic, magnetic tape, screws- and time- since DVD is replicated while VHS was copied) the VHS copy was cheaper, even though both VHS and DVD offered sucky NTSC SD quality.

If BD drops to £10 to match what DVDs cost there (going off of what you said) then DVD will drop to £8 and it will still be cheaper. At least for as long as DVDs still make sense. The guy that only buys BD, only buys BD, the guy that buys some films on DVD (and others on BD) buys the DVDs because he does not believe that the particular film is worth BD prices, so if the DVD is the same price he would buy neither of them and the guy that only has a DVD player obviously is looking for cheap, so if DVD=BD prices then DVD will be seen as too expensive.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

But the price difference is because BD is superior. If you looked at DVD vs VHS back in the day, even though it would cost a studio much more to produce the VHS copy (more in material - more plastic, magnetic tape, screws- and time- since DVD is replicated while VHS was copied) the VHS copy was cheaper, even though both VHS and DVD offered sucky NTSC SD quality.

If BD drops to £10 to match what DVDs cost there (going off of what you said) then DVD will drop to £8 and it will still be cheaper. At least for as long as DVDs still make sense. The guy that only buys BD, only buys BD, the guy that buys some films on DVD (and others on BD) buys the DVDs because he does not believe that the particular film is worth BD prices, so if the DVD is the same price he would buy neither of them and the guy that only has a DVD player obviously is looking for cheap, so if DVD=BD prices then DVD will be seen as too expensive.

Well ... I think we're getting close to the point where BD in large vols. will be cheaper than DVDs in small vols, despite the fact that hi-def mastering is (or at least has been) more expensive than mastering & encoding for crappy ol' SD. So I think it's scale more than quality at work here.

The way it's going for _some_ titles (action blockbusters), soon it will scarcely be economical to press DVDs -- for some titles it will be a better strategy for the studio to force BD on the consumer, much as DVD was forced on us, title-by-title, over VHS circa 2004.

My prediction is that within 18 months we'll have the first BD "Matrix" i.e. timed BD exclusive of a major blockbuster from WB. It will be painless as the first-week sales for the action genre approach 70% Blu by that time.

I pulled these #s (18, 70) out of my butt but I stand by them anyway as a rough approximation of what I think will happen.

When the DVD version does come out it won't be cheaper than the BD. When asked why, the studios will simply say "Volumes aren't there anymore".