Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[silverado]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

give it a bit more time, eventualy you will understand why it won't be that small

I am pretty sure that it will be relatively small.

[singhcr]

Originally Posted by Neild

What niche collectors want bears no relevance on what the mass market will supply. Corporations won't voluntarily accept radically smaller profits because you enjoy touching and holding a movie case.

Our less discerning mass market comrades surrendered the 'quality-versus-bandwidth' war years ago. That's the reason my 'HD' television channels look like DVD's played through a macroblocking codec, and why audio quality of CD's is now worse than when the format was introduced.

Unfortunately for every collector like you that appreciates a good looking blu-ray, there's 99 others who naively accept the cable company's claim that their version is equal or better. And there's millions of suckers who are more concerned that they could cram 4,000 songs on their mp3 player than they are about the fact all 4,000 sound like garbage.

This is very, very true. While Blu-ray is around for enthuasists, the vast majority of people don't care what something looks or sounds like, as long as they can watch it quickly and easily.

The music industry is the best example of this. Within the last few years MP3's and dynamic range compression and loudness boosting have turned CD quality music into garbage, but let's not forget that the industry was already heading downward in quality with the introduction of the CD over the vinyl record.

Now we are in a situation where the master recordings for CD quality audio are at CD spec, or if they are higher, studios have no interest in releasing them. I have all of the classic Journey albums on LP and they sound great, especially the 180g remastered pressings. These came off of reel-to-reel master recordings which sound even better than the LP.

Journey broke up in 1986 or so after Raised on Radio, their last album to be released on LP. In 1996 they came back with Trial by Fire, but it was on CD only and despite being 10 years newer, technology had regressed. Now in 2011 we are in the same boat because their latest release, Eclipse also is stuck in CD land. There's an LP release but I contacted the company and found out that it is just an LP pressing of the CD.... that's like making a Blu-ray copy of a VHS tape source.

However, nobody I know really cares about that. They are content with "high quality" MP3 audio in their car or on their Ipod or smartphone. I'm 28 and feel like I have been robbed. You can get very high quality stereo audio with the DVD format (DVD Video spec allows for 96/24 stereo audio) let alone the ignored DVD-Audio/SACD formats or BD-Audio, and some of the DVD-Audio discs I've ripped onto my computer show that a whole album only takes 1-1.5 GB. In this day and age, that is nothing in terms of file size. The only excuse not to have high quality audio is laziness and lack of consumer demand, which probably go together more than I would like to think.

[wormraper]

the minute they get rid of physical media for downloads and sh!tty streaming quality is the day I give up collecting and buying media. end of story.

[TraCes]

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by singhcr

This is very, very true. While Blu-ray is around for enthuasists, the vast majority of people don't care what something looks or sounds like, as long as they can watch it quickly and easily.

The music industry is the best example of this. Within the last few years MP3's and dynamic range compression and loudness boosting have turned CD quality music into garbage, but let's not forget that the industry was already heading downward in quality with the introduction of the CD over the vinyl record.

People always try to make this comparison, but I don't see it as a legit comparison.

The fact that Blu-Ray survived its war while neither SACD nor DVD-A really did tells me people value video much more than they do audio.

[singhcr]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

People always try to make this comparison, but I don't see it as a legit comparison.

The fact that Blu-Ray survived its war while neither SACD nor DVD-A really did tells me people value video much more than they do audio.

Why don't you see it as a legit comparison? To me, they are very similar. Home video has become better and better over time with VHS to DVD to Blu-ray, but they all relied on a TV and physical media for delivery. Now the push is for portable video devices and streaming, which may be HD in terms of resolution, but is around the same bitrate as DVD. Many streaming sites like Hulu aren't anywhere close to HD resolution, let alone DVD.

With music, the push towards ease of use and portability happened much sooner, around 2000 or so with the advent of the MP3 format and the iPod launch in 2001. The same thing is happening with video. When I see commericals advertising the fact that movies will look great on a smartphone, I cringe because video quality is going downhill as well. If it was not for the majority of people, why would we be discussing whether BD will be the last physical format, let alone 4k content?

Content providers have figured out that ease of use and portability trump everything else for consumers. Now that bandwidth and the needed video devices are here, video is going portable too which means the rise of poor quality. I really hope the day does not come where BD will become the video equivalent of vinyl. Video will go the way of MP3 soon enough.

As for SACD/DVD-A, that failed primarily because of the format war. If BD and HD DVD were still fighting now, we wouldn't see nearly the adoption rate we have now.

[Johnny Vinyl]

Originally Posted by singhcr

As for SACD/DVD-A, that failed primarily because of the format war. If BD and HD DVD were still fighting now, we wouldn't see nearly the adoption rate we have now.

That makes no sense at all. Can you explain in a little more detail what you tried to say?

[singhcr]

Originally Posted by John72953

That makes no sense at all. Can you explain in a little more detail what you tried to say?

I was trying to respond to the claim that DVD-A/SACD failed and BD did not because consumers value video more than audio.

My assertion was that consumers do not care more about video than audio, and SACD/DVD-A failed primarily because the format war between the two kept people from adopting either one. If HD DVD was still around, neither BD or HD DVD would be very popular because consumers are hesitant to buy a player and discs for a format that isn't established.

In short, the lack of DVD-A/SACD titles was not due to consumers valuing video more than audio, it's because of the lack of an established standard for high fidelity digital audio. Of course now with the consumer shift towards portable music neither format would be popular now, but if one of them won in the early 2000s I imagine it would have replaced the CD by now.

Furthermore, I believe that consumers don't value video more than audio. Audio quality was sacrificed for portability a decade ago due to the Ipod and the small file sizes for MP3 files. In 2000 you didn't have enough bandwidth to stream movies and there were no portable devices to play them on. Now that we have smartphones, larger hard drives and greater access to high speed internet, video quality is starting to be sacrificed for portability as well.

Does that make more sense now? I apologize for my original post because now that I read it, it doesn't make any sense.

[BluPat]

Originally Posted by wormraper

the minute they get rid of physical media for downloads and sh!tty streaming quality is the day i give up collecting and buying media. End of story.

+1

[HDMe]

Far more people listen to music with headphones than people watch TV and listen with headphones.

I hate some of what has happened to the music industry too... but with so many people wanting portability and listening to music in headphones... all the quality is lost anyway the way most people listen to their music. Gone are the days when the masses sat around their home and listened to music to pass the time in their living room.

But for video... sure, portability is nice for kids in a minivan or something... but most folks are still sitting in their living room watching TV to pass the time... so the low-quality stuff doesn't cut it. Yeah, some people are less picky than others... but it is still currently a higher bar than what those same people set for their music listening time.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by singhcr

Why don't you see it as a legit comparison?

because if you ask people "when do you listen to music?", most will say things like "while I am driving" or "while I jog"... while very few (and it would need to be an audiophile) it might be "I go to my audio room, close all the lights and sit the dark so that nothing distracts me from the music". On the other hand if you ask "when do you watch movies?" no one will say while I am driving" or "while I jog" almost everyone will say, "I go to my Living Room (or HT or what ever the room with the biggest display is called) I close most/all of the lights and I sit down to watch a movie."

Second if you ask "why did you buy X on itunes (or similar service) instead of a CD" some might answer "I like that I can buy one song at a time instead of an album" others might say "I will be listening to it on my ipod while jogging so there are less steps". Again none of these apply to movies, I don't know anyone that wants to watch just one chapter of a film and very few people want to spend the tens of thousands in order to have a media server with all their movies, so disks are easier.


Thirdly you are assuming something that is incorrect. Yes in 2001 Apple launched itunes and ipod, but to this day more music is sold on physical media in the US (almost 50-50) and the world (roughly 70% physical media-30% DL)

As for SACD/DVD-A, that failed primarily because of the format war. If BD and HD DVD were still fighting now, we wouldn't see nearly the adoption rate we have now.

maybe, but what does that have to do with your argument. If SACD/DVD-A failed because of the format war (and I agree with you that it was a big factor) how does it mean that people don't want high quality music. If anything the opposite might be true (people wanted high quality but because they stayed away waiting for a winner both had a premature death. As for BD who cares if a long and more balanced war would have killed it. It is now doing great with substantial growth each year, who cares what would have happened if HD-DVD would still be around.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by HDMe

sure, portability is nice for kids in a minivan or something...

but even then isn't a disk more portable? you can throw a few DVDs or BDs in the car and assuming a built in player/portable player watch several hours (i.e. an other reason movies are different from music, on a 2h car ride you will put one film for the kids that you can easily pick before hand, but you will need a lot of songs and so not as easy to pick and so having a large library of music at your fingertips is an advantage), on the other hand if you need to transfer before hand (to a portable HDD or the HDD of the car player) that is time consuming and streaming through your phone that can be extremely problematic as you are moving from one tower to the next on the highway (also add roaming and it is extremely expensive as well since we are talking of a trip that will be more than an hour and possibly 2h).

[KAEXUM]

I will be so pissed if they do away with physical media I want a Blu-Ray case I want a CD case,I want the album artwork ,I don't care if it is 100 dollars cheaper just downloading content . I want to be able to count & dust my collection. I don't care if i have to drive in the rain at midnight to go pick up the new releases. That's what a true collector would want.

[singhcr]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

because if you ask people "when do you listen to music?", most will say things like "while I am driving" or "while I jog"... while very few (and it would need to be an audiophile) it might be "I go to my audio room, close all the lights and sit the dark so that nothing distracts me from the music". On the other hand if you ask "when do you watch movies?" no one will say while I am driving" or "while I jog" almost everyone will say, "I go to my Living Room (or HT or what ever the room with the biggest display is called) I close most/all of the lights and I sit down to watch a movie."

That's true, people do focus on movies more intently than they do with music. However, the picture quality for many people is going down with the growing popularity of streaming video and smartphones.

[FinalEvangelion]

If we are headed to an industry of macroblocked, low quality, DRMed downloads and streams, count me out. Never joined the mp3 train with music - not joining it for movies either.

[HDMe]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

but even then isn't a disk more portable? you can throw a few DVDs or BDs in the car and assuming a built in player/portable player watch several hours

True... but if you have more than one car or your car doesn't have that... then it's much more convenient to have an iPhone or iPad or something like that and be able to load a few digital copies onto it... They are lower quality, but on the small screen it still looks good.

The larger point really was that in the car was the only place I could think of where people might make a habit of settling for lower quality video than they would in their home... so I could see non-physical-media being ok there.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by FinalEvangelion

If we are headed to an industry of macroblocked, low quality, DRMed downloads and streams, count me out. Never joined the mp3 train with music - not joining it for movies either.

I don't see this happening. Why then produce big 3D flat screens if we are going this way.

There will always be demand for physical media because people want quality and people like to collect things it is a hobby.

If we go that way the stores should just throw away the big flat screens and why in the hell even invent this new 3D stereophonic.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by KAEXUM

I will be so pissed if they do away with physical media I want a Blu-Ray case I want a CD case,I want the album artwork ,I don't care if it is 100 dollars cheaper just downloading content . I want to be able to count & dust my collection. I don't care if i have to drive in the rain at midnight to go pick up the new releases. That's what a true collector would want.

Who says that they will do away with physical media?

There are two kinds of people who "believe" that physical media will be phased:

1. A small group of former, very bitter HDDVD boys turned streaming/downloading evangelists.

2. "Analysts", such as Rob Enderle, whose record of being wrong is so long that it makes him look like a complete idiot every time he comes with one of his illuminating articles. Which is what he likes, because it generates his sensationalistic nonsense plenty of hits (a.k.a The Fox News tactic).

Physical media is here to stay and anyone who "believes" that it isn't, I guarantee you, could only back up his/her speculations that it isn't with "future talk" - that would be the same future where cars can fly.

Let me ask you a question: Do you think that the studios (and I don't mean only the majors) do not realize that the people who drive the market, and these people are approximately 10% of hardcore buyers who buy physical media, will not be paying to buy digital files? So they will essentially replace the physical media market (which is still a gigantic pie) with tiny streaming peanuts where content is devalued beyond belief and cannot be resold?

Some people really need to get to terms with reality.


Pro-B

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by mredman

I don't see this happening. Why then produce big 3D flat screens if we are going this way.

There will always be demand for physical media because people want quality and people like to collect things it is a hobby.

If we go that way the stores should just throw away the big flat screens and why in the hell even invent this new 3D stereophonic.

Give this man a cigar!

Pro-B

[Johnny Vinyl]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Give this man a cigar!

Pro-B

Indeed!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sVShT6nVTA