Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by steve1971

Anthony Wood has got to be out of his freakin mind for making a statement like that but really its no surprise because people have been saying that ever since Blu ray came out. Blu will continue to roll on long before Ruku is even around.

I think the claim that he said that needs to be fact-checked. It's pretty obvious that there must have been a tremendous amount of dope smoke up there on the stage. Thick enough to cut with a knife, is what I'm thinking.

The words were uttered, and when the smoke cleared up a bit, the statement was attributed to the most wasted-looking SOB on the stage. It could just be an understandable mistake. Wood just couldn't deny it, being truly Deep In The Zone and not paying attention.

I need better proof before I can agree anybody is that effing daft.

[Steedeel]

Zoet, How does Facebook take away from time listening to music? You do realise that mp3 players exist? Also people can listen through computers speakers at the same time they check Facebook.

[tigertron]

No way in hell Blu-ray will be obsolete by 2016. Thats 4 years away and studios have poured way too much money in remastering and releasing their back catalogue to let it happen.

Besides, DVD hasn't yet died and thats been going strong since '97. Whats the alternative? streaming? hell no, I prefer physical ownership and plus my internet would mean my films would keep buffering. Not only that, physical stores and online retailers would have something to say if they were suddenly unable to sell the latest videos.

I don't see this happening.

[Prox]

Originally Posted by tigertron

No way in hell Blu-ray will be obsolete by 2016. Thats 4 years away and studios have poured way too much money in remastering and releasing their back catalogue to let it happen.

Besides, DVD hasn't yet died and thats been going strong since '97. Whats the alternative? streaming? hell no, I prefer physical ownership and plus my internet would mean my films would keep buffering. Not only that, physical stores and online retailers would have something to say if they were suddenly unable to sell the latest videos.

I don't see this happening.

That's an excellent point that I hadn't thought of before. Taking out physical media means quite a bit less money for retailers. Do companies like Roku think these retailers will sell their streaming devices at tiny profit margins without some other large incentive?

[octagon]

Originally Posted by tigertron

Not only that, physical stores and online retailers would have something to say if they were suddenly unable to sell the latest videos.

Well, his theory (if you can even call it that) is in the next few years consumers are going to stop demanding physical media in favor of some manner of digital delivery or another. If that were to happen then I don't know that retailers would have a whole lot to say about it.

If people stop wanting stuff there's not a lot retailers could do.

But that's all obviously moot. Consumers aren't going to abandon physical media anytime soon and certainly not in the next four years.

[vargo]

Not only that, physical stores and online retailers would have something to say if they were suddenly unable to sell the latest videos.

The falling sales of physical media have already had an impact on retail. Just look at the statistics above regarding CD sales from 1999 to 2010. I know lots of local record stores that have closed or downsized.

Same for physical video. Large stores like Walmart have made their video section smaller. Lots of rental chains have shut down. Anybody who doesnt realise that physical media is on the way out is fooling themselves.

That's life. New technologies will always cause some stores to go out of business and force others to adapt/change.

[Petra_Kalbrain]

F.U.D. IS NOT YOUR FRIEND PEOPLE!!!

2016? Hahahaha!

[Petra_Kalbrain]

Originally Posted by vargo

The falling sales of physical media have already had an impact on retail. Just look at the statistics above regarding CD sales from 1999 to 2010. I know lots of local record stores that have closed or downsized.

Same for physical video. Large stores like Walmart have made their video section smaller. Lots of rental chains have shut down. Anybody who doesnt realise that physical media is on the way out is fooling themselves.

That's life. New technologies will always cause some stores to go out of business and force others to adapt/change.

Two words... ONLINE SHOPPING!!!

I've all but stopped purchasing physical media in-store unless it's a FutureShop exclusive steelbook because I can find my physical media cheaper online and have it sent straight to my door without having to deal with a bunch of idiots (both fellow consumers AND store staff). Many others can/will echo this statement as well, which leads to explain why big retail stores are downsizing their media sections.

It has nothing to do with an industry-wide drop in physical media sales, but rather a redistribution of sales activity towards other sources.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by Petra_Kalbrain

Two words... ONLINE SHOPPING!!!

Total physical media sales are down. That includes brick & mortar stores and online stores. In total, sales are down.

Blu-ray sales may be rising, but not enough to overcome falling DVD sales. Physical media sales and rentals overall are falling steadily while streaming rises.

In 2012, for the first time more movies will be watched in the US via legal streaming than from physical copies.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by vargo

Total physical media sales are down. That includes brick & mortar stores and online stores. In total, sales are down.

Blu-ray sales may be rising, but not enough to overcome falling DVD sales. Physical media sales and rentals overall are falling steadily while streaming rises.

In 2012, for the first time more movies will be watched in the US via legal streaming than from physical copies.

I think they were talking Netflix, which is a stupid comparison. Especially as they seem to concentrate on tv shows mostly. When we switch our attention to renting and buying, i am pretty sure physical media is still ruling the roost and will continue to do so for many more years.

[Steedeel]

Vargo, if i may ask, how many blurays do you own?

[vargo]

Originally Posted by morriscroy

Is this by revenue, profit, or some other measure (ie. actual views, etc ..)?

Actual views according to this.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-ihs-says.html

Vargo, if i may ask, how many blurays do you own?

Not many. Maybe 50.

[Prox]

Originally Posted by vargo

Actual views according to this.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-ihs-says.html

Thanks for the link. The claim definitely counts Netflix viewings.

I'm not sure how they determine viewings for physical media (the methodology is never mentioned). The probably equate one purchase to one viewing, which is a poor approximation in my opinion. I feel that people generally purchase physical copies because they intend to watch the movie/show multiple times.

This is the most important takeaway for me:

Consumers paid an average of 51 cents for every movie consumed online, compared with $4.72 for physically purchased videos, IHS found.

That's a HUGE difference in revenue for content providers. Also, where/how are people buying physical copies for less than $5? This must be a highly prevalent practice if it brings the average down that much.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by Prox

That's a HUGE difference in revenue for content providers. Also, where/how are people buying physical copies for less than $5? This must be a highly prevalent practice if it brings the average down that much.

A lot of people only buy in sales or bargain bins.

[Musashi]

Originally Posted by Prox

That's a HUGE difference in revenue for content providers. Also, where/how are people buying physical copies for less than $5? This must be a highly prevalent practice if it brings the average down that much.

That figure makes me think they're lumping in buying and renting together.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by vargo

Actual views according to this.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-ihs-says.html


Not many. Maybe 50.

So you are not a serious collector obviously. Therefore, you would be fine with streaming and downloading. The difference is i am not and never will be.

[Tony208]

Digital offers more unit sales but physical media gives more profit per unit. They want both options and so do consumers, physical media isn't going anywhere. No one is going to turn down potential sales, that's why there's the one size fits all Blu-ray/Dvd/Digital copy combo packs. Only an idiot would think physical media will be obsolete and by 2016 no less

It's not going to happen for a long time.

[antimatter]

This CEO is a Jackass b/c the future of his company hangs in the balance he is trying to bad mouth other technologies. I personally perfer not to stream B/c the quality is not there. Not to mention we need better quality streaming capabilities and fast speed internet connections at affordable prices. This guy can suck a fat one. Now I hope his company goes under.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

So you are not a serious collector obviously. Therefore, you would be fine with streaming and downloading. The difference is i am not and never will be.

I was...once.

I had hundreds of DVDs and VHS back in the day. Still got most of them in storage. I realised at some point that I never watched 90% of my collection more than once. And then when Bluray came out the collection that i'd spent years building up felt inadequate and a huge waste of money.

So I gave up 'collecting'. I buy a few Bluray per year, my family and friends buy a few, we swap around and I pretty much get to see any movie I want.

I don't have the satisfaction of 'owning' everything but im fine with that because I grew out of it. Some day we'll all be dead and you can't take your collection with you.

In any case we are constantly reminded that we don't 'own' the content we purchase anyway, we can't do whatever we like with it...we're not supposed to rip it or lend it to friends etc. We're just purchasing the right to watch it, we never own it.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Zoet, How does Facebook take away from time listening to music? You do realise that mp3 players exist? Also people can listen through computers speakers at the same time they check Facebook.

All surveys show that people are spending less time listening to music in spite of portable music players. While I'll admit that I don't have hard research that proves that people using Facebook aren't listening to music at the same time, I think music sales stats tell the story. If you want to maintain that it has nothing to do with Facebook and the like and that music sales are half of what they used to be for other reasons, fine.

Also, since radio and music listening have become so fragmented with so many sub genres of music, it's rare that the masses listen to the same music. The result of that is that music becomes less important in the culture and when it's less important, sales decline. That's why, unless the culture changes again, there will never be another Sinatra, Elvis, Beatles, Stones, Dylan, Springsteen or Madonna, although I suppose that Adele is as close as we've gotten to a crossover artist in years. My hope is that a new generation of listeners will rediscover the pleasures of the album. Maybe the new interest in vinyl LPs (although still less than 2% of the market) will help drive this.

All leisure time activities compete with each other. With the advent of the internet and computers, there are far more activities than there were decades ago. So each traditional activity takes a hit in terms of the money spent on it and the time spent doing it. As just one example, while boxoffice revenues are up due to higher ticket prices and even higher ticket prices for 3D and IMAX, the number of tickets sold is down substantially from years past. In the U.S., the peak year for movie ticket sales was 1946, when there were about 86 million weekly admissions (vs. 25.4 million in 2010) in spite of the fact that U.S. population was only 141 million (vs. 308 million today).

When I was a kid, I probably saw 40 movies a year because there simply wasn't that much to do in spite of the fact that we spent far more time outdoors than most kids do today. And when I wasn't doing schoolwork or at the movies, I was listening to music, including extensive radio listening, which led to music purchases. Radio doesn't sell music anymore. I still personally buy music, but I must confess that when I walk into J&R, the last of the large physical music stores in New York City, it's usually a ghost town. And they've already reduced the space devoted to physical music (with about 20% going to games) as a result.

Word is that the big box stores like Best Buy are going to substantially reduce the size of future stores. Since physical retail is generally measured by sales per square foot, my bet is that music will be the first to go. It takes up lots of space and doesn't generate much profit or cash flow. In existing stores, it doesn't make a difference because they have to pay the rent on the space anyway.