Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by img eL

Digital downloading streaming is booming, the video & audio quality of streaming is not booming

booming where? not in actual numbers (maybe in some fan boys imagination but nowhere else). The only thing that is doing relatively OK is Netflix streaming and it is not doing any where near as well as BD and it is not really growing either the only reason some people chose it is that it is dirt cheap and those people are already using it.

i.e.

Total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible
devices now stands at close to 51 million U.S. homes according to numbers compiled by the DEG with input from retail tracking sources.

, while at the last quarterly report (Q3) Netflix told us that they had 22.022(end of Q1), 22.686 (end of Q2) and 23.801 (end of Q3) M users Now we don’t have Q4 numbers yet but I would highly doubt that it would be more than 25.5M (i.e. half way to BDs penetration)


where the 51M is a conservative number based on the assumption that some households will have more than one player, while the later is a real number but with the caveat that Netflix does not require proof of citizenship nor residence (i.e. some of the members that use the US service are not in the US)

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Because we are busy talking about why Blu-ray didn't take off like DVD.

so you mean we are only allowed to discuss fiction

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Because we are busy talking about why Blu-ray didn't take off like DVD.

Nothing will do what DVD did. If the studios intent was for Blu-Ray to fully replace DVD they would have had to have killed off DVD... And they are not going to do that. That would be like DirecTV, Comcast, or Dish getting rid of all their SD channels and just leaving the HD channels. Won't happen.

[biznus97]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

so you mean we are only allowed to discuss fiction

Look, I get that you love and will defend Blu-ray no matter what. I think it's a great format too. Trying to downplay DVD's success as a format for rental and purchases isn't very productive. A lot of people have brought up factors for why we haven't seen the same large numbers in sales. Also reasons ast to why many titles available on DVD still aren't on Blu-ray. Blu-ray is doing well but I doubt we'll see another format hit numbers like DVD anytime soon. I'm pretty sure that's what the thread was about .

[thebluemax]

I saw "The Impossible" at the movies yesterday evening, while the movie was good the presentation was lousey. The picture quality was not sharp or crisp, like all movies I have seen in theathers. The sound was like it came out of a tiny TV speaker. In comparison my Blu-rays look and sound superb. My days of going to the movies has ended. My Blu-ray home prsentation is far superior.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

It is true, I have seen in the past where someone has said studios should stop DVD “now”, so I can understand that pointing out when that line does not make sense (and I have done when I have seen that.)

But I did not really see something like that in the post you originally replied to, and definitely there was none of that in my post when I originally replied to you when you first objected to drawing a line.

"i think ultimately it is because dvd is still around. if they said they were going to stop producing them in the next year, people would buy blu because they have to."

Originally Posted by Anthony P

...but there is something wrong with believing and saying “People will stop buying DVDs when they don't want DVDs anymore. That's why companies don't have to draw lines or pick winners and losers”.

I went on to say 'Markets have a way of sorting themselves out and this one is no different'.

By 'markets' I didn't mean four guys in Iowa. I was - and I would think this was obvious but I guess it wasn't - speaking more broadly than that.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Look, I get that you love and will defend Blu-ray no matter what. I think it's a great format too. Trying to downplay DVD's success as a format for rental and purchases isn't very productive. A lot of people have brought up factors for why we haven't seen the same large numbers in sales. Also reasons ast to why many titles available on DVD still aren't on Blu-ray. Blu-ray is doing well but I doubt we'll see another format hit numbers like DVD anytime soon. I'm pretty sure that's what the thread was about .

I am not down playing DVD, but I am not making a fairytale world on how well it did either. DVD was the fastest adopted tech in history but it was not 100% of the market in 2002 not even remotely close to it. When comparing different times, different launches, different factors..... it is not easy and when there is no large difference (I.e. like let's say how digital music compares to DVD) a lot of it is mostly personal bias. DVD launched in Q4 1996 in Japan, in Q1 1997 in the US but only in some cities, in 1998 in some other countries. Samsung launched their BD player in the summer of 2006, but every other manufacturer launched their player in the fall/winter of 2006. So how can one clearly compare how one is doing compared to the other? You can't. IF in 2002 DVD was doing the same way it was doing in 2006 (VHS got axed the year earlier and BD/HD DVD were just barely starting) so everything else was none existent, than it would be easy to say DVD did much better and ask why didn't BD take off. But in some metrics and in some ways BD is doing as good as DVD and so for me that question does not make sense. It is a bit like when people discus PS3 and 360, until recently there were more 360's that sold than PS3s, but the 360 launched a year earlier, so if one said "it is Nov 2011 the 360 sold more units" that would be true, but the statement on its 5th birthday (nov 2011) the PS3 sold more units than the 360 sold on its 5th birthday" would equally be true. You can only know which sold better (and by how much) once they both go away and stop production (or like it appears now when the PS3 has taken the lead since that means under any way of looking at it is doing better but even then a lead could go the other way if there is the right price drop or not)

The same here studios decided in 2005 to drop VHS at the end of the year even though VHS still brought in over 1B$ to the industry. If and when the studios decide to drop DVD then we will be able to discuss what happened there and try and analyse the situation. At this point the BD footprints and DVD footprints are too similar to make it a clear case of DVD did better they are both roughly equal in their evolution..

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by thebluemax

my Blu-rays look and sound superb. My days of going to the movies has ended. My Blu-ray home prsentation is far superior.

Well, in some cases that is actually correct. The movie studios that have gone to digital sometimes uses files with less resolution than blu ray. And I actually personally know someone who shows blu rays, in a theatre, to an audience who pay to see it on 720p projector.

Film days were so much better.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by octagon

"i think ultimately it is because dvd is still around. if they said they were going to stop producing them in the next year, people would buy blu because they have to."

yes, I saw that and to that I replied “it is still a bit early to dump DVD”. I think his line appears to be a bit early (DVD might not be small market enough within this year), but let’s face it neither I nor you know what the growth will end up being and a year is both very small and very big. Last year Avengers did 72% on BD, in 2011 I think a good title would have been around 66% and in 2010 Avatar did 49% (if I remember correctly, either way it was just below 50% that much I am sure of) what will 2013 give us as the % for the top blockbuster of the year? If it is near 72% than it will be insane to be discussing the end of DVD, but if it is 85%+ then that line is becoming real clear.

I went on to say 'Markets have a way of sorting themselves out and this one is no different'.

Yup. But you kind of negated it with the rest. Either sorting it out is draw a line or it is not.

By 'markets' I didn't mean four guys in Iowa. I was - and I would think this was obvious but I guess it wasn't - speaking more broadly than that.

But it is always that way, that is the issue. VHS did over 1B of business in 2005 but part of it was rental and part of it was sales, some of it was in Iowa and some of it was not, some of it was at store X in Iowa and some of it was in different stores and different chains, some of it was was different titles. Let’s make it simple, let’s say there is a store in Iowa that sold 50 copies of Avengers, now for that store that could have been 35 copies on BD and 15 copies on DVD, now let’s assume that some time passes and there is an other film its distribution is 90%BD sales if that store thinks 50 people will most likely buy it and it will be 90% BD he will order 45BDs and 5 DVDs and if those 4 guys in that store in Iowa go “that movie is worth the BD experience” that guy that orderd 45BDs and 5 DVDs because he rightly assumed the distribution will be 90-10 will get screwed because those 4 fickle people changed it from 90-10 to 98-2 and he way over bought the copies in the old format. At the macro level something like 90% or 1B$ sounds like a lot but at the micro level (individual titles and stores) it starts getting dangerous very fast.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

booming where? not in actual numbers (maybe in some fan boys imagination but nowhere else). The only thing that is doing relatively OK is Netflix streaming and it is not doing any where near as well as BD and it is not really growing either the only reason some people chose it is that it is dirt cheap and those people are already using it.

i.e.

exactly, it's dirt cheap for netflix and amazon instant video but digital downloading is going NOWHERE fast. laughable at best. it's nice to stream some old tv show that's in SD or something, but for critical movie watching?? not even close. NO ONE I know uses streaming except illegally or netflix to watch some tv shows, watching actual movies on there is almost non-existent

[ouflak]

This thread is going to be necro-bumped in about 3 to 4 years, and some of you people are really going to wonder what the heck you were thinking when you posted what you've posted.

Anyway, the fact that the studios have decided to leave SD content, in other words TV shows in SD, off of Blu-ray has sadly kind of killed the format for me. I won't purchase TV shows on DVD because there are just too many disks involved. All the TV shows I have on DVD (4, all thanks to my lovely well-meaning wife) were gifts. If they would put an entire season on a single Blu-ray disk, my total collection of optical disks would be double its size atleast, possibly more than doubled. This was a real opportunity to clinch the 'convenience' crowd, which I think is a much bigger crowd than the audio/video/collector enthusiasts crowd combined. A big missed opportunity if you ask me.

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by wormraper

for critical movie watching?? not even close.

The average person does not do too much critical movie watching. Does a movie like Hope Springs, or The Tourist really need to be seen in 1080p with the sound all over the place? Not really.

The average person just wants to watch the movie, access it conveniently, and for a cheap or a decent price.

NO ONE I know uses streaming except illegally or netflix to watch some tv shows, watching actual movies on there is almost non-existent

I know four families that are blu ray free. They access their movies off Netflix and iTunes or cable. Two of them do it the HD way while the others do not. None of them have ever talked or showed any interest in going the blu ray route.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

Well, in some cases that is actually correct. The movie studios that have gone to digital sometimes uses files with less resolution than blu ray. And I actually personally know someone who shows blu rays, in a theatre, to an audience who pay to see it on 720p projector.

Film days were so much better.

It is bigger than that actually. Projectionist was an art as much as it was a skill, and most theaters just hire some high school kid now and pay him/her minimum wage to run the projectors and audio gear. It is quite sad actually.

I cannot tell you how many times I have paid $8-12 to see a movie (that does not even include the price of popcorn/candy and drinks) only to be really dissapointed with the PQ/AQ.

I used to go to the movies 20+ times a year and now go like 2-3 times a year... I almost always get a much better experience at my home.

[ack_bak]

Originally Posted by ouflak

This thread is going to be necro-bumped in about 3 to 4 years, and some of you people are really going to wonder what the heck you were thinking when you posted what you've posted.

Anyway, the fact that the studios have decided to leave SD content, in other words TV shows in SD, off of Blu-ray has sadly kind of killed the format for me. I won't purchase TV shows on DVD because there are just too many disks involved. All the TV shows I have on DVD (4, all thanks to my lovely well-meaning wife) were gifts. If they would put an entire season on a single Blu-ray disk, my total collection of optical disks would be double its size atleast, possibly more than doubled. This was a real opportunity to clinch the 'convenience' crowd, which I think is a much bigger crowd than the audio/video/collector enthusiasts crowd combined. A big missed opportunity if you ask me.

I think the boat has been missed because of uber cheap streaming. And the big problem I see with streaming is that sometimes Netflix will yank the show you are watching when you are halfway done with a series or season. It sucks. I too wish more shows were on Blu-Ray, but I think most shows will not make it on the format. Luckily for me some of my most favorite shows are on Blu and I have bought them already.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

The average person does not do too much critical movie watching. Does a movie like Hope Springs, or The Tourist really need to be seen in 1080p with the sound all over the place? Not really.

The average person just wants to watch the movie, access it conveniently, and for a cheap or a decent price.




I know four families that are blu ray free. They access their movies off Netflix and iTunes or cable. Two of them do it the HD way while the others do not. None of them have ever talked or showed any interest in going the blu ray route.

yes, EVERY film deserves to be seen in it's BEST possible viewing environment. try watching a DVD on a 120-136 inch screen, not even close. If I'm not watching the best, then why am I watching it at all?

I keep hearing that people just want to view it cheaply and conveniently, but only the "Ipad" type fanatics ever do that, everyone else still rents from redbox or buys the movie. ISPs are shutting down bandwidth limits left and right, unless you wanna watch a movie on a sh!tty tiny computer or ipad screen, downloads are dead in the water. (why anyone would watch a movie on less than a 40-50 inch screen is beyond me, my 40 inch bedroom TV is BARELY big enough for my tastes, the 50 inch living room tv is decent but the 120 inch projector is where I get the real goods)

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

I think the boat has been missed because of uber cheap streaming. And the big problem I see with streaming is that sometimes Netflix will yank the show you are watching when you are halfway done with a series or season. It sucks. I too wish more shows were on Blu-Ray, but I think most shows will not make it on the format. Luckily for me some of my most favorite shows are on Blu and I have bought them already.

yup, they are in a pickle, if they raise the prices like they want (the studios have talked about wanting $60-$90 PER MONTH for streaming for them to really jump on board) they're gonna lose customers since everyone is used to sub $10 streaming per month, and if they keep it where it's at they aren't really gonna grow... it's a catch 22. they realize cable is being KILLED by streaming and they want another revenue source, but they're stuck between a rock and a hard place

and the licensing issues SUCK, constantly seeing stuff added and deleted at will.

[biznus97]

Originally Posted by wormraper

yes, EVERY film deserves to be seen in it's BEST possible viewing environment. try watching a DVD on a 120-136 inch screen, not even close. If I'm not watching the best, then why am I watching it at all?

I keep hearing that people just want to view it cheaply and conveniently, but only the "Ipad" type fanatics ever do that, everyone else still rents from redbox or buys the movie. ISPs are shutting down bandwidth limits left and right, unless you wanna watch a movie on a sh!tty tiny computer or ipad screen, downloads are dead in the water. (why anyone would watch a movie on less than a 40-50 inch screen is beyond me, my 40 inch bedroom TV is BARELY big enough for my tastes, the 50 inch living room tv is decent but the 120 inch projector is where I get the real goods)

Based on your screen size preference, you seem like a good candidate for 4k when it is available. Do you plan to sell your BD's once a better 4k solution is available?

[pagemaster]

Originally Posted by wormraper

yes, EVERY film deserves to be seen in it's BEST possible viewing environment. try watching a DVD on a 120-136 inch screen, not even close. If I'm not watching the best, then why am I watching it at all?

This is where I do not agree with you. I am more interested in seeing a movie that perhaps I would never of seen if it were not for iTunes, Netflix or cheap dvds.

I would never of paid to buy the blu ray of Summer with Monika at $33.99. Luckily I saw it on iTunes for less than $5 and I was able to watch it. I would of gladly paid to see the movie in the theatre but we now that is not going to happen. Same thing with the movie Night Train to Berlin which was available for free on YouTube...or a blu ray for $30+.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by pagemaster

This is where I do not agree with you. I am more interested in seeing a movie that perhaps I would never of seen if it were not for iTunes, Netflix or cheap dvds.

I would never of paid to buy the blu ray of Summer with Monika at $33.99. Luckily I saw it on iTunes for less than $5 and I was able to watch it. I would of gladly paid to see the movie in the theatre but we now that is not going to happen.

I strive for 100% perfection in every movie I watch... and $33.99??? who pays those prices? I just go to pawn shops, buy at gohastings and average $4-$8 per movie. plus I get to OWN the disc (which is another main goal... I don't pay money for ANYTHING I don't get to tangibly keep in this universe)

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by biznus97

Based on your screen size preference, you seem like a good candidate for 4k when it is available. Do you plan to sell your BD's once a better 4k solution is available?

if it drops to a reasonable price and sticks around, sure why not. however I'm still suspicious 4K won't be more than a niche for at least 5-8 years