Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Tok]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

I purchased many disc in this period because there was many titles released that I and many others wanted. IMO, the 2nd half has a fairly weak release slate and therefore sales will be weak.

If there is desirable titles made available then sales will be strong, if not then sales will be weak. I believe it has always been this way and will continue this way.

Just sales numbers, percentages, YoY gains, etc. only tell part of the story, unfortunately that is about all the press folks use.

Q3 and Q4 are highly dependent on the success of the summer movie releases at this point.

The big catalog releases have already had their initial BD releases. There is no longer a Star Wars or Indiana Jones box set waiting in the wings. Disney has released most of their golden classics with a few exceptions.

So don't get depressed about disc sales. If the yearly movie BO is bad because of bad product it's not realistic to think consumers will pay top dollar for it when on disc.

[blonde_devil]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

These days, a large portion of big-budget films don't even make money at the boxoffice, they don't become profitable until they sell on home video and cable TV. A movie that costs $200 million to make, has to gross more than $500 million just to break even, (and even after that, it's not all profit, only 35-40% of gross after hitting break-even would be profit... so if your $200 million dollar film grosses $600 million, you probably only made $30 million). Most of the money from ticket sales goes to cover the costs of running the cinema, as well as covering the distribution costs of the studios. Many studios have had so many expensive bombs on their books lately, that they are bound to re-evaluate their standard as to what gets the investment of a theater-run, versus what goes straight-to-video.

Anymore, the cinema has become a means of advertising and selling home videos, that's where they make their real money. While I think it is unlikely, it is certainly within reasonable possibility that film studios could do without the cinemas almost entirely, aside from their sure-thing franchise tentpoles. I do think that we are coming to a time where releasing something straight-to-video or straight-to-cable doesn't carry the stigma it used to, and a lot more films will be released that way. Cinemas are in much more danger than physical media, home theater, or films in general.

that's kind of what I was thinking. it isn't uncommon not to hear of a movie bombing at the theatre yet making a fortune from rentals and sales. I think all it takes is for one company to actually put out some quality films like that and people will start to accept it. Can't blame people - direct to video has a history of being bad, original movie has Sly Stallone, sequel has Frank Stallone sort of thing. That's why I think maybe the Netflix route will happen first as they are showing you can do quality work without a network.

in regards to what Tok said about the lack of big releases, I have to agree. I think that is why they are jumping onto things like 3D for home - it gives them an excuse to re-release something. I mean, Wizard of Oz had 2 major releases in 5 years, same with Casablanca. Star Wars and Star Trek were both released on bluray less than 5 years ago and were re-released again recently. Right now, anything big that isn't new has pretty much been released already. Sure there are still movies that people want that are not out yet but nothing huge. that is going to impact sales. and even the re-releases are not helping that much - people hate when studios double-dip so are you going to buy that second release just because it is in 3D?

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

That is the death of movies for the future gen. Watching on a mobile or worse smartwatch. Doesn't anyone see the sheer tragedy that that represents? It's the death knell for movies in the future, if that happens.

I would disagree with that being the biggest factor, although I do agree that it's a terrible way to watch a movie. (But I was always surprised that anyone was willing to buy a bootleg DVD that was made by using a camera in a theatre.) The biggest factor in a potential death knell for movies would be the demise of the movie theatre, which is slowly happening and will continue to happen at an even faster pace if the studios don't stop being so greedy and continue to push for ever decreasing exclusive theatrical windows.

Theatrical windows used be a year. Then it was reduced to six months, then to four months and even that is frequently violated. The theatres were smart enough to refuse to show a movie last year that was going to be day and date available streaming. There are movie executives pushing for simultaneous release in all media, but I think this is an extremely self-destructive impulse. They think they want it because it would save marketing dollars and it would potentially improve cash flow which would raise their stock price (and their bonuses) in the short term, but destroy the business in the long term, because IMO, movies would no longer seem 'important'.

The one thing actually saving theatres in the U.S. right now is the still relatively poor economy. In many places, the building or land that the theatre occupies couldn't be used for anything else, because no developer is willing to invest. But as I've posted before, where real-estate is hot, theatres are gone. In NYC, which used to be the biggest movie-town in the country (at one time, NYC had 29 theatres with more than 2800 seats each), no longer has a single movie theatre on Broadway between 20th and 66th streets and has lost many theatres over the last decade with the Union Square 14 and the Cinema 1,2,3 rumored to be next.

[blonde_devil]

I think part of it is that movies are for the most part no longer an experience. you went to the theatre to see something you couldn't see at home on tv but that has now changed. with vhs, you were able to start bringing the movies home to watch but you had to wait. now because of the money involved, studios are bringing them out sooner and sooner. tv isn't immune to this - look how many times a series or seasons ends and you can find that season in store to buy within a week. but the other part is that movies were, for lack of a better term, more mature than tv was. it was a more realistic take on life compared to tv. but that has changed over the years and shows on tv are doing things that you could only do in movies in the past. I think that is hurting theatres now as there are few big movies/experiences out there and I think eventually we will have the direct streaming instead of releasing into theatres. I think once that starts happening, then optical media is in trouble as why would a studio stream it and then go through the hassle of releasing a bluray when they can just let people download that same file and take it with them anywhere?

[mredman]

Why would that matter. Movies in theaters also get physical media releases just because movies gets streamed instead of going to theaters does not mean that physical media is in trouble. Its just streaming and theaters that gets reversed. That has nothing to do with physical or optical media.

Besides i dont think that will ever happen. To think theaters will go away is just crazy because that will never happen

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by blonde_devil

I think once that starts happening, then optical media is in trouble as why would a studio stream it and then go through the hassle of releasing a bluray when they can just let people download that same file and take it with them anywhere?

Well at the rate UV is moving with UV players (not to be confused with UV streaming devices) it will be some time before you can take it with you anywhere . I'm not sure they even have their CCF up and running. And Disney still seems to be UV MIA. No matter, all my disc work.

FWIW, we have been looking into the purchase of a 2014 Chrysler T&C Limited mini-van. It comes with a CD\DVD\Blu-ray player and two monitors. Does not do a thing for me but for some it may have appeal.

[MrsMiniver]

I have been secretly buying UV/iTunes copies from forums for cheap. Usually 3-4 bucks a movie. It is a pretty good deal if you ask me.

I just read that Blockbuster is closing, so I wonder what these former members are going to do, are they just going to switch to Redbox or perhaps move over to streaming.

[Midnight Rambler]

And what will happen to streaming when Time Warner, etc., all put a data cap on customers' accounts and then charge exhorbitant amounts for exceeding the cap ?

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Midnight Rambler

And what will happen to streaming when Time Warner, etc., all put a data cap on customers' accounts and then charge exhorbitant amounts for exceeding the cap ?

comcast is doing that in our state already. $10 per $10 gig in overage charges

[vargo]

Originally Posted by Midnight Rambler

And what will happen to streaming when Time Warner, etc., all put a data cap on customers' accounts and then charge exhorbitant amounts for exceeding the cap ?

I predict that as streaming adoption increases, caps will get worse and worse and eventually only the 5 richest kings in Europe will be able to afford to stream video on the internet.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Midnight Rambler

And what will happen to streaming when Time Warner, etc., all put a data cap on customers' accounts and then charge exhorbitant amounts for exceeding the cap ?

Some of the heavy users of Netflix over at AVS have changed their settings for lower quality video, a few said they paid the difference.

[bobbydrugar]

As that happens companies like google will happily accelerate their plans for a internet focused broadband network. And will happily take those time warner/comcast customers money to add to their collection.

T

[kimg1453]

That's why everyone needs to support physical media. If it goes away, look out, you will be paying more than you ever did for Blu-ray and the quality will be crap.

I'm thankful for my collection and at least I know I will have it in the future to enjoy all my favorite movies without having to pay for them and being able to watch them whenever I want, etc.

[RyanPom]

Originally Posted by kimg1453

That's why everyone needs to support physical media. If it goes away, look out, you will be paying more than you ever did for Blu-ray and the quality will be crap.

I'm thankful for my collection and at least I know I will have it in the future to enjoy all mt favorite movies without having to pay for them and being able to watch them whenever I want, etc.

Not to mention the Commercials they will insert into movies and TV series WHILE you are watching them.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

I purchased many disc in this period because there was many titles released that I and many others wanted. IMO, the 2nd half has a fairly weak release slate and therefore sales will be weak.

If there is desirable titles made available then sales will be strong, if not then sales will be weak. I believe it has always been this way and will continue this way.

Just sales numbers, percentages, YoY gains, etc. only tell part of the story, unfortunately that is about all the press folks use.

Ok, fair point.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by RyanPom

Not to mention the Commercials they will insert into movies and TV series WHILE you are watching them.

Or product placement in nearly every screen.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by bobbydrugar

As that happens companies like google will happily accelerate their plans for a internet focused broadband network. And will happily take those time warner/comcast customers money to add to their collection.

Actually Google and Verizon has halted ALL of their expansion plans for fiber. IIRC Google will finish the Austin TX install but that will end it.

[Tok]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Actually Google and Verizon has halted ALL of their expansion plans for fiber. IIRC Google will finish the Austin TX install but that will end it.

I can't believe that some think these big corporations are going to play nice with consumers. It's all about profit. Google and none of the others are going to give ISP services away for free.

[Steedeel]

Well, another store is ceasing to sell optical media online i believe. Sainsburys in the UK will only sell blurays from their retail stores and not online store from next year I understand. This is a worrying trend. I use amazon, but if they decide to cease selling blurays etc.. We are screwed. I can see a scenario where potentially, Amazon could dictate the market. Amazon may (in my opinion) push downloads and streaming and stop producing blurays to ensure their goal. Just my theory of course.
Regardless, soon online stores for optical media is going to be as rare as high street stores.

[arrow61095]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Well, another store is ceasing to sell optical media online i believe. Sainsburys in the UK will only sell blurays from their retail stores and not online store from next year I understand. This is a worrying trend. I use amazon, but if they decide to cease selling blurays etc.. We are screwed. I can see a scenario where potentially, Amazon could dictate the market. Amazon may (in my opinion) push downloads and streaming and stop producing blurays to ensure their goal. Just my theory of course.
Regardless, soon online stores for optical media is going to be as rare as high street stores.

If I am not mistaken, Sainsburys is a supermarket. There are many Supermarkets in the U.S. (like Giant Eagle for example) that don't sell blu-rays online (only in store). It usually has to do with the percentage of their business. It doesn't make sense to a place that sells mostly food/consumable related materials to sell certain items online. In general, they don't do enough online business to justify the staff needed for packaging and shipping. I could be wrong, but I highly doubt that movie sales at Sainsburys are even 1% of their monthly sales.

I doubt that Amazon would ever quit selling optical media as one of their goals is to compete with "brick and mortar" competitors like Best Buy/Future Shop, Walmart, and Target and they do make a high percentage of their profits from the sale of electronics and optical media.