Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by wormraper

exactly. since cable is now basically becoming "streaming" in their eyes, all those subs are gonna be thrown in the mix too.

They are getting desperate. What next? Starting to include soda streams into the mix as well!

Bluray for life!

[Musicguy]

Do you really believe the studios are going to abandon a product that brings in 8.7 billion dollars a year?


They are also including cable in there. People will download to watch a film once as with rentals and cable TV, but blu-ray will be the collector's preferred format for years to come. Few people collect - most rent (from Video stores to Netflix to streamings etc)

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by wormraper

exactly. since cable is now basically becoming "streaming" in their eyes, all those subs are gonna be thrown in the mix too.

I won't be surprised if they did start throwing in cable subs, lol.

Subscription streaming as it is pads the DEG home entertainment revenue totals, since it cannibalizes cable revenue to some extent. If they predict digital revenue will be $17.5 billion in 2018, then that will be almost what the total (physical + digital) revenue is now, and has been holding steady for several years (thanks to the padding provided by SVOD). Adding the predicted 2018 physical revenue of $8.7 (which seems about right) to that means they think the home video market will grow to $26.2 billion in four years. Doesn't make any sense, UNLESS they lump in ALL streaming, no matter what the category. So very misleading forecast to say the least. No way digital movies/TV series is going to grow like that.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Depends on how they tally SVOD in the future. Subscription streaming right now is almost all movies and TV shows. But eventually you'll have sports, news and other programming traditionally viewed on cable/sat. Counting those towards "home video" will be misleading and in my opinion the only way digital will reach $17.5 billion in four years is to include non-movie/tv show programming.

Of course it was our resident Streaming troll vargo that posted the article from variety. But i love the comments from that crap article. Everyone is against digital in the comment section. Many say if there is no discs they will stop buing movies. And i am in the the same boat. I WILL NEVER pay for any digital movies NEVER. I want to OWN PHYSICAL discs and there are many that feel the same way. The studios are shooting themselves in the head if they think everybody is gonna go digital. Most people wanna OWN their favorite movies and tv shows physically. Just look how much Game of Thrones sell on blu ray or any other big blockbuster movie - Frozen anyone

this is also interesting:

I’ve ALREADY lost access to some movies via Digital, so Ren is on-target. Second rate picture and audio at a higher price…no wonder the studios love it. As for discs, the only reasons they are dropping in sales is because the industry has been trying to kill it for years. A) Having movies on digital but delaying the discs for a month or longer. B) Stripping rental discs of any and all features, leading many consumers to not notice any additional value in BD over streaming. C) Making discs unavailable for purchase at retail outlets (check out the weekly releases and then go to, say, your local Best Buy and see how many you can find).

Streaming may be OK for the undemanding viewer as a higher-priced rental. But I’m with the posters below…if there are no discs, I just will no longer buy movies.

If you don’t have the discs, you don’t have control. We’ve seen incident after incident where people thought they had bought a digital product, but it was later taken away. Who are they kidding here?

When you buy or use the abhorrent ultra-violet, you are simply renting the product. That’s what the studio wants. They want to be Gepetto and for you to be their puppet.

what the studios should do is end DVD once and for all. So there will only be Blu Ray for physical media for movies. Blu Ray sales will sky rocket and digital will be left standing

[Nick The Slick]

Originally Posted by mredman

[Show spoiler]Of course it was our resident Streaming troll vargo that posted the article from variety. But i love the comments from that crap article. Everyone is against digital in the comment section. Many say if there is no discs they will stop buing movies. And i am in the the same boat. I WILL NEVER pay for any digital movies NEVER. I want to OWN PHYSICAL discs and there are many that feel the same way. The studios are shooting themselves in the head if they think everybody is gonna go digital. Most people wanna OWN their favorite movies and tv shows physically. Just look how much Game of Thrones sell on blu ray or any other big blockbuster movie - Frozen anyone

this is also interesting:

what the studios should do is end DVD once and for all. So there will only be Blu Ray for physical media for movies. Blu Ray sales will sky rocket and digital will be left standing

I feel like this is a terrible idea. Killing DVD isn't going to make people want to upgrade to Blu-Ray. If they're still stuck on DVD, chances are higher that they will take the easy route and go to streaming rather than buy new equipment for Blu-Ray. So, your idea will really just make your nightmare come true faster. Let me be clear though, I am not supporting streaming here, just saying. Streaming is great for mobile devices and the like, but at home on the big screen it's of no use to me.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by Nick The Slick

I feel like this is a terrible idea. Killing DVD isn't going to make people want to upgrade to Blu-Ray. If they're still stuck on DVD, chances are higher that they will take the easy route and go to streaming rather than buy new equipment for Blu-Ray. So, your idea will really just make your nightmare come true faster. Let me be clear though, I am not supporting streaming here, just saying. Streaming is great for mobile devices and the like, but at home on the big screen it's of no use to me.

no they will not. A disc is a disc. DVD is totally different from Streaming and digital. While DVD and Blu Ray is basically the same thing. Blu Ray just has way superior PQ and AQ but its still a disc and you OWN it like a DVD. Streaming and digital is owning "air" So why would DVD buyers jump to owning air over owning physical again just with way superior sound and picture

[Nick The Slick]

Originally Posted by mredman

no they will not. A disc is a disc. DVD is totally different from Streaming and digital. While DVD and Blu Ray is basically the same thing. Blu Ray just has way superior PQ and AQ but its still a disc and you OWN it like a DVD. Streaming and digital is owning "air" So why would DVD buyers jump to owning air over owning physical again just with way superior sound and picture

Because if they are still stuck on DVD then they obviously don't care about superior sound and picture, and they most likely don't care about owning something either, they just want something to watch... Present your average consumer with the option of either buying a ~$50-$100 blu-ray player plus their collection again (considering a lot of them will be unaware their DVD's will still play in the Blu-Ray player), or paying a (relatively) small monthly fee for a service they can readily access on their laptop/computer/smart TV then throw in the bonus they don't have to store the discs anymore, then there's no contest (remember, average consumer).

I'm not arguing the fact of owning something with you, I completely agree, but this is you and me, we know better. I'm talking average consumer here though. They are going to take convenience any day. That's the only reason they are still using DVD. It's not because they are owning something, it's because they already have the equipment for it so why go to Blu-Ray? Take away their DVD's and it's either buy new equipment, or use equipment they already have (nearly every household has a computer/device that can stream of some form) and stream.

Furthermore, (again, remember, average consumer thinking here) abruptly take away DVD's and that's going to a leave a bad taste in their mouth. "Why should I invest in another disc format when it could be taken away just like my DVD's were! I'm going digital!" You and me both know their digital content can be taken far easier than the discs though, but what are they going to do? They're going to take the word of salesmen or the streaming service providers, who obviously aren't going to tell them that. Not to mention they aren't going to know the difference in quality between streaming and the disc. All they know is they both say "Full HD!", so what's the difference to them?

Now obviously we can't just group everyone who's buying DVD's together. There are going to be your exceptions. Ones who can't get reliable internet (or internet at all), ones who are hardcore collectors and want something physical, ones who don't own streaming devices, ones who will actually do research and see the advantages of disc over digital etc. etc. But it's the majority that wins, not the exceptions. And I'm willing to bet the majority will want convenience.

I'm just arguing for the sake of arguing at this point though. I feel this is all moot really. I don't believe streaming will kill physical formats anytime soon, if at all (at least not in my lifetime, at 23 years old currently). I enjoy the speculation though and the "what if" scenarios.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

I won't be surprised if they did start throwing in cable subs, lol.

Subscription streaming as it is pads the DEG home entertainment revenue totals, since it cannibalizes cable revenue to some extent. If they predict digital revenue will be $17.5 billion in 2018, then that will be almost what the total (physical + digital) revenue is now, and has been holding steady for several years (thanks to the padding provided by SVOD). Adding the predicted 2018 physical revenue of $8.7 (which seems about right) to that means they think the home video market will grow to $26.2 billion in four years. Doesn't make any sense, UNLESS they lump in ALL streaming, no matter what the category. So very misleading forecast to say the least. No way digital movies/TV series is going to grow like that.

it wouldn't surprise me in the LEAST. when they were trying to throw together stats about what percentage of people streamed vs. purchased they padded their numbers by including Youtube and the like... stuff that didn't have ANY monetary value but added weight to their numbers for streaming. and you're right. the jump from now to then with the 8.2 billion increase ONLY makes sense if they're throwing in subscription cable streaming.... another sleazy article with heavily manipulated numbers

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by wormraper

it wouldn't surprise me in the LEAST.

Netflix has always counted a title as viewed no matter the actual time watched. Just select a title and click view then stop after 15 seconds. Now that title will show up in your viewed list. Makes for great numbers to present to shareholders .

It appears most do not really watch anymore anyway. A few months ago a survey was done that showed 80% of viewers were doing other things when watching (texting, gaming, talking, etc.).

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Netflix has always counted a title as viewed no matter the actual time watched. Just select a title and click view then stop after 15 seconds. Now that title will show up in your viewed list. Makes for great numbers to present to shareholders .

Shareholders couldn't care less how much of a movie you watch. They only care about subscribers and revenue and whether it's increasing. And maybe how much Netflix spends to license the content. That's it.

Same for satellite radio. It doesn't matter who listens. It only matters who subscribes.

In the case of Netflix, they might even prefer that you don't watch - it lowers the bandwidth requirements.

[bruceames]

Physical vs. Digital spending 2009-2013
Source: DEG Ent.



Total spending each year (in billions):

2009, $18.2
2010, $18.0
2011, $18.0
2012, $18.0
2013, $18.2

HE spending has been virtually unchanged the last five years, and this report predicts it will increase $26.2 billion in four years, with digital alone being $17.5?

[pentatonic]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Netflix has always counted a title as viewed no matter the actual time watched. Just select a title and click view then stop after 15 seconds. Now that title will show up in your viewed list. Makes for great numbers to present to shareholders .

It appears most do not really watch anymore anyway. A few months ago a survey was done that showed 80% of viewers were doing other things when watching (texting, gaming, talking, etc.).

This is a big part of why digital delivery will take over. First, too many think broadcast HD is really really good and are very satisfied of Netflix quality it seems. But the viewing habits of a large portion of the population definitely have changed. Unless it's something terribly awesome, texting, FBooking etc. also occupy the same time. They enjoy enough to pay $8-10/mth but even renting digitally for them (broadcast HD) is just as good.

I have so many crazy examples of that, one no later than 3 days ago. Go over to my buddy's and I see in his face he got a new toy. Having pointed out to him that his 2006 XBR was dead and it was time I knew what to expect. Anyways long story short he got the new curved screen TOL Sammy. So I let him "impress" me. Well, it took me over 20-25 mins to be able to tell him to freakin put in a Blu-ray, broadcast HD while very well processed by this model was doing him a disservice. He did and was real happy with it, and then 10 mins later show me whatever on broadcast HD. He spends the bucks but really has no freakin interest in even using his stuff well. And he ain't alone. He, and so many more are perfect candidates to drool over digital delivery, and it's not even ease over quality, for them it's just ease as they truly don't perceive the added PQ and AQ. How they can't see though stills baffles my mind

[Rixx]

Originally Posted by wormraper

exactly. since cable is now basically becoming "streaming" in their eyes, all those subs are gonna be thrown in the mix too.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

They are getting desperate. What next? Starting to include soda streams into the mix as well!

Bluray for life!

Possibly including total sales for combo packs, so what if it contains Blu-ray and dvd discs it's only the ultraviolet that counts

[thecalm_7]

Originally Posted by pentatonic

This is a big part of why digital delivery will take over. First, too many think broadcast HD is really really good and are very satisfied of Netflix quality it seems. But the viewing habits of a large portion of the population definitely have changed. Unless it's something terribly awesome, texting, FBooking etc. also occupy the same time. They enjoy enough to pay $8-10/mth but even renting digitally for them (broadcast HD) is just as good.

I have so many crazy examples of that, one no later than 3 days ago. Go over to my buddy's and I see in his face he got a new toy. Having pointed out to him that his 2006 XBR was dead and it was time I knew what to expect. Anyways long story short he got the new curved screen TOL Sammy. So I let him "impress" me. Well, it took me over 20-25 mins to be able to tell him to freakin put in a Blu-ray, broadcast HD while very well processed by this model was doing him a disservice. He did and was real happy with it, and then 10 mins later show me whatever on broadcast HD. He spends the bucks but really has no freakin interest in even using his stuff well. And he ain't alone. He, and so many more are perfect candidates to drool over digital delivery, and it's not even ease over quality, for them it's just ease as they truly don't perceive the added PQ and AQ. How they can't see though stills baffles my mind

People are fun like that. I was in Best Buy the other day and there was a lady buying a DVD. The DVD alone was 18$ and the combo pack DVD/Blu/Digital was $15. I asked her why not save $3 and get a better value for the $. Her reply was to mind my own business as well as "Blu-ray isn't for me". There is the good portion of America. Not only stupid, but rude and unwilling to take preventative action and save money.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by thecalm_7

People are fun like that. I was in Best Buy the other day and there was a lady buying a DVD. The DVD alone was 18$ and the combo pack DVD/Blu/Digital was $15. I asked her why not save $3 and get a better value for the $. Her reply was to mind my own business as well as "Blu-ray isn't for me". There is the good portion of America. Not only stupid, but rude and unwilling to take preventative action and save money.

Well, considering how anal people here are about the packaging, she probably didn't want to have the smaller Blu-ray case and was willing to pay $3 extra for the DVD packaging.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Rixx

Possibly including total sales for combo packs, so what if it contains Blu-ray and dvd discs it's only the ultraviolet that counts

Yep, meanwhile my display cabinet is full to bursting with new bluray goodness.

[pentatonic]

I think the real funny thing about this thread is it reads like a war to death. I only see the evolution of options. Now the day new releases start not showing up on BD, then by all means, worry. DVD is slowly dying, at least if I rely on my surroundings. You can barely get them anymore outside of the 2x$5 bin. BBY and FS have finally rearranged the shops around here and only new releases, TV shows or bin catalog titles, but no real choice. BD, while having a bit less than a few years ago, are way better displayed. The few I know who used to buy DVDs a few years ago now byy BDs, often they are cheaper anyways.

Will we see UHD BD is something else, but before mainstream broadcast and all is UHD Blu-ray has a place for it until something truly better comes along, and that's not tomorrow.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by mredman

I've said something like this before, but I also think part of why sales have dropped is simply market penetration.

DVD become the uber collector's medium when it came out. Many, many people bought movies when they used to mostly rent on VHS.

It just hit an all time sales high during the peak of DVD. Odds are that same level of profit won't be seen again regardless of the format (physical or digital).

People collected the hell out of it, buying up their favorite movies, etc.


Blu-Ray is doing great for what it is and is certainly my format of choice, but it will never accomplish what DVD did... and neither will streaming/downloads... specifically because many people now have those movies sitting on their shelves and don't feel the need to buy them again.

Even those "average joes" (meaning not 'enthusiasts' like we have here on this site) who have gotten on board with Blu-Ray aren't going to buy each and every movie again that they already have on DVD. Sure, maybe a few favorites. Most likely 'blockbuster' level material. But they aren't exactly going out of their way to rebuy Beverly Hills Cop or Ferris Bueller's Day Off.

Now, those same people may opt to watch a movie through a streaming service that they are already signed up with (i.e. Netflix) for convenience if it happens to be available, rather than walking over to the shelf to get the disc. But those same people aren't likely to specifically pay for the individual movie through UV or Vudu or any other services.

Those people will mainly buy new movies on Blu-Ray. And those who haven't moved on are still buying DVDs, but again, mostly new movies since they have most catalog titles that they care about.


The studios are chasing an all time level of profit that they once had that was due to unique circumstances at the time that aren't likely to repeat again.


Digital is not going to change that. And it's just going to screw over customers who lose access to their content. And piss off enough of these people by taking away what they paid for, and they'll likely turn to piracy to obtain access to the content they want, when up until that point they've paid for their content legitimately.


I'm sticking with physical media as long as it is around. I don't care if digital versions come out earlier. I'll wait for the disc.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

I've said something like this before, but I also think part of why sales have dropped is simply market penetration.

Agree the physical market has reached saturation. Physical sales do really well whenever a good new title or highly desirable catalog title is released. IMO, in the last year there have not been very many of either (new or catalog).

Still have ≈ 150 DVD titles because they have no BD counterpart and/or I deem an upgrade to BD not worth it.

I will be even more selective when going from BD to UHD BD. I see no reason to upgrade unless the source and DI are 4K.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Agree the physical market has reached saturation. Physical sales do really well whenever a good new title or highly desirable catalog title is released. IMO, in the last year there have not been very many of either (new or catalog).

Still have ≈ 150 DVD titles because they have no BD counterpart and/or I deem an upgrade to BD not worth it.

I will be even more selective when going from BD to UHD BD. I see no reason to upgrade unless the source and DI are 4K.

Yeah, and I just can't see rebuying all of those movies AGAIN!

Top favorites and those that will benefit most from the upgrade, sure. Everything else, I'll stick with the Blu-Ray.