Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[mredman]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

I am not biased against either. The consumer market is, or can be interpreted to be. One is declining and the other is increasing. Get it?

yeah not biased towards digital at all

i already showed you statistics blu ray ALONE has a market share in BILLIONS. Get it - BILLIONS of dollars!

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

What has happened is people aren't buying movies like they did, for whatever reason but they are going to streaming. In the mean time physical sales have dropped.

Year to date (August 9), in the U.S., DVD revenue is down 10.09%, BD revenue is up 0.08%, DVD units are down 9.01%, BD Unit sales are up 2.46%, BD has a 31% physical market revenue share and a 21% physical market unit share (all calculated via Home Media Magazine stats).

While I have argued many times that the weak year-over-year unit and revenue growth of BD and its weak physical market share is a problem, if the VOD/streaming market is as large as was stated in an earlier post ($3+ billion), it's actually quite remarkable that BD has shown any growth at all.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

This is the Future Technology board isn't it? I'm posting trends whether you or I like it or not. Don't shoot the messenger.

all your trends you post is from BIASED digital sites

even Forbes posted an article saying physical media is not going anywhere and listed a number of reasons why.

I think i should mention it again. Blu Ray sales dollars is in BILLIONS and that is just the states.

[slick1ru2]

Originally Posted by mredman

yeah not biased towards digital at all

i already showed you statistics blu ray ALONE has a market share in BILLIONS. Get it - BILLIONS of dollars!

Everyone used to have a buy lots of VHS movies and music cassettes too. How many are sold now? Its not how much it is now, IT'S HOW ITS STEADILY DECLINING. DEG is saying the declines are expected. This is the FUTURE technology board.

I'm not biased at all. You, on the other hand, are very biased.

[slick1ru2]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Year to date (August 9), in the U.S., DVD revenue is down 10.09%, BD revenue is up 0.08%, DVD units are down 9.01%, BD Unit sales are up 2.46%, BD has a 31% physical market revenue share and a 21% physical market unit share (all calculated via Home Media Magazine stats).

While I have argued many times that the weak year-over-year unit and revenue growth of BD and its weak physical market share is a problem, if the VOD/streaming market is as large as was stated in an earlier post ($3+ billion), it's actually quite remarkable that BD has shown any growth at all.

Makes me wonder if 4K is going to take away much of this market and overall just be worse for HD physical media. I think 4K is going to take out of that BD market share, not the DVD one, or add much to the overall. So you'll have a split like 70% DVD, 5-10% 4K and 20-25% BD

[mredman]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

Everyone used to have a buy lots of VHS movies and music cassettes too. How many are sold now? Its not how much it is now, IT'S HOW ITS STEADILY DECLINING. DEG is saying the declines are expected. This is the FUTURE technology board.

I'm not biased at all. You, on the other hand, are very biased.

you seriously gonna pull that card. thats physical media to. they replaced it with a more convenient physical media. Digital is a whole new ballgame. Digital is buying smoke that could cease to exist with a blink of an eye when that service goes down. And most people wanna OWN their favorite movies. You do not OWN jack sh!t with digital and people know that.

yeah you are biased and your bias do not belong on a blu ray board at all.

[Penton-Man]

Here we go again....slick vs. Blu-ray supporters Ver. 1001

After the shootout winner is declared, I want a recount.

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

Here we go again....slick vs. Blu-ray supporters Ver. 1001

After the shootout winner is declared, I want a recount.

lol, yeah there's always a few who troll this board just to trash physical media, it happened all the time with Hidefdigest back in the day.... dvdmike, Lee Stewart and a few others would literally THRASH blu-ray with all sorts of graphs and predictions (just like Slick does) on how blu-ray wouldn't last pat 2012......

[Tok]

I'm sure when BD is eventually replaced they will be back to say I told you so. Granted it may be a long wait. There are many still waiting for their CD death prediction to come to fruition.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by Tok

I'm sure when BD is eventually replaced they will be back to say I told you so. Granted it may be a long wait. There are many still waiting for their CD death prediction to come to fruition.

There is no sign of that blu rays intake is in billions of dollars

[Tok]

Yeah I don't even know why we try to validate our points to him. The best response is let him meet silence or if you're having a bad day, GFY troll

[bruceames]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but VHS was the last physical format that was actually "replaced" by another. These days formats just tend to coexist almost indefinitely, having their sales peak year and then slowly declining after that. I really don't see DVD or Blu-ray being "replaced" ever, at least by another physical format.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by slick1ru2

76% of owners have a life and don't sit on the couch watching movies about it.

Lol so that is your response to me posting that the article actually said “24% of adults, according to a survey from the firm, watch video on the Internet via a connected TV at least weekly” when you said it was half?

1) it is not just movies the article you quoted said "watch video " so that should also include TV shows as well as movies.

2) even if we forget that and assume it was just movies they were talking about, in what bizarre world does it make sense to believe that 76% have a life and are so busy that they don’t sit down to watch at least one film a week?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but VHS was the last physical format that was actually "replaced" by another.

depends what you mean by "replaced". What I mean is take HD-DVD for a second, it came out in 2006 and is no more. For the people that bought into HD-DVD obviously now it got replaced by something else if they are still alive and watching movies.

These days formats just tend to coexist almost indefinitely, having their sales peak year and then slowly declining after that. I really don't see DVD or Blu-ray being "replaced" ever, at least by another physical format.

that is why I asked the question. VHS died out in 2006. in 2005 the studios decided VHS sales where too small and that they would stop new releases won VHS with the end of the year so it also had what can be called a slow decline to nothingness since DVD came out in Q4 96 (in Japan) and Q1 97 in the US. It might be slightly slower but the same is happening with DVD (a constant decline where at some point it won't make sense to continue supporting it).

The other thing is that if we look only at formats that were at some point in time true kings of the hill (,ajority of sales) . There have only been two formats that ever disappeared VHS in the 2000s and 78rpm records in the late 50's and both of them co existed for a long time with the new king of the hill(33s came out in the late 40's). It always takes a long time because of the economic factor, not everyone has the $ to run out and get new tech as soon as it is available.

The question that needs to be asked to figure out if a format (king or not) will one day be "replaced" (or like LPs will go down to niche probably for ever) is what does that format have to offer that its competitors don't. For example in the mid 80's audio tapes were near 50% of the market, people that wanted transportability when choosing a format for their music (play it in the car/Walkman) bought tapes, people that wanted quality and durability bought records. But when CD came out (around mid 80's when tapes where at the highest) people that wanted portability started slowly moving from audio tapes to CDs and so tapes disappeared on the other hand even today people that want analogue quality still buy LPs and it survives as niche. The same with LD , it came out soon after VHS, it was always niche because it was expensive but better quality but when DVD came out and it was better quality people that stuck with LD for the whole life of VHS moved to DVD since there was no longer a reason to stick with LD.

To put it simply, if a new format isn't better in every way important to everyone the new and the old will co-exist (the same way LP, CD and VM share the music market today). If the new format is better in every way to the old format the old one will eventually die but it will take time (like VHS, 78's or even audio tape).

[bruceames]

Well I think cassettes were "replaced" by CDs, and LD's were replaced by DVDs. HD DVD wasn't around long enough to be considered an "established" format worthy of considering. Anyway it was involved in a format war since the beginning and had a very tiny market share. On that note I wouldn't consider Betamax or Divx either as formats that were replaced by others, although Betamax is debatable.

The life and death of formats is an interesting topic for me and yes you're right only a few were ever truly "king of the hill". It's likely DVD will be the last such format.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Well I think cassettes were "replaced" by CDs, and LD's were replaced by DVDs. HD DVD wasn't around long enough to be considered an "established" format worthy of considering. Anyway it was involved in a format war since the beginning and had a very tiny market share. On that note I wouldn't consider Betamax or Divx either as formats that were replaced by others, although Betamax is debatable.

I don't see why LD would count while HD-DVD would not. You are right that LD had a longer life but that is just because it's replacement (DVD) took a lot longer to come out but once DVD came out LD died out faster then HD-DVD did to BD and HD-DVDs were easier to buy than LD ever was.

That is why I went with what I called "king of the hill" formats. If we include all the formats then there have been several that died and got replaced after VHS died, and if we include some niche formats while we don't others, it either becomes personal preferences (I like LD but not HD-DVD) or to make a point (if we count HD-DVD VHS was not last). The only one that imho is questionable is audio tapes, they were big enough to be considered mainstream before their decline but never became king of the hill because CD came out a bit too early and was better and started stealing their sales.

The life and death of formats is an interesting topic for me and yes you're right only a few were ever truly "king of the hill". It's likely DVD will be the last such format.

I disagree the simple idea of "king of the hill" implies there is one, more or less, all the time with small periods , usually as the crown is passed, where it gets hard to call one.

[bruceames]

I guess I would define a format as "king of the hill" if it achieves a 75 or 80 percent sell through market share. Anyway it's just a question of parameters and semantics and although it's interesting to me, it's more of a casual interest. I'm sure your knowledge of format history is greater than mine so I'll defer to your better judgement.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

I guess I would define a format as "king of the hill" if it achieves a 75 or 80 percent sell through market share.

did not mean it that way, just that clearly one format is larger. It would also depend on all the available formats. For instance if there are 4 formats A has 45%, B has 25%, C has 20% and D has 10% A would be the king of the hill since there is a big difference between A and anyone of the rest.

[bruceames]

Yes that makes more sense Anthony.

[slick1ru2]

This is the "future technologies forum". 4K isn't here and the only young technology growing in double digits is __________. By definition, bashing the new technology in a future technology forum is being a troll. The only concern of the owners of this website is if the future is not physical media because that's how they make money, kick back for sales when visitors here follow links to Amazon and make a purchase. Digital streaming isn't going to generate those sales, although they could make money if they linked to streaming devices on Amazon, there were 6 million of those sold in Q2 alone.

http://homemediamagazine.com/streami...ayers-q2-34080

Home Media Magazine has a classification for articles called Digital Evolution. What kind of articles do you expect to find there? Do you know what EVOLUTION means?

http://homemediamagazine.com/list/ne...l-evolution-38