Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Drewbee87]

Yeah, the only true 4K releases are digital and only accessible on the Sony 4K media player which is over $600. From what I've read, the 4K downloads are $25 to $35. But when you buy the player, you get a small selection of movies pre-loaded on the player.

EDIT: I think you can get the 4K content through PS4 now also.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by TheWalkingDead

I would say it is not as successful as DVD. Then again Im not sure about the timeframe between the two formats.

DVDs were available around 1997
DVDs were competing with VHS until around 2004

7 years competing with another format (before "eliminating" VHS)

If you go by those timeframes, then it is still too close to call it a complete failure.

actually studios in the US dropped VHS in 2005-2006 (i.e. in 2005 they said they would stop releasing after Dec 31 2005 - but since things get delayed a bit there are a few movies that did get released in 2006 on VHS)

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

Do you have stats that prove this?

I find this VERY hard to believe. I had a Playstation 2 (which played DVDs) since 2001, as did all my friends and NO ONE I knew bought VHS since that year. And by 2004, I don't think they were even selling VHS in stores so they could "compete" with DVDs.

well here is a link to Bambi 2 released in 2006 on VHS http://www.amazon.com/Bambi-VHS-Walt.../dp/B000BAVLYS

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

Well, like I mentioned, for me buying a PS2 made VHS pointless.

so by that token DVD became pointless in 2006 because that is when I bought my first BD player (and a bit later PS3). What does when you bought a format (or gave up on a format) have to do with anything?

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Ray Jackson

Only thing that frustrates me about blu-ray are the numerous glitches I have to deal with on a semi-regular basis.

Movies that inexplicably freeze up at random moments and my machine won't respond at all, so I have to literally unplug it and plug it back in to start the whole thing from scratch.

And there's still quite a few movies that automatically reboot to the main menu page when you hit the "stop" button--either on purpose or by mistake.

...it's really a pain in the ass sometimes.

what the hell do you use? I have been watching BDs since 2006 on several different players and that has never happened to me.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Darth Anakin

LOL I should've been more clear that that was sarcasm, I blame my self-inflicted level of near poverty for the size of my BD and TV show collection more than the format of BD itself.

I think his point was that you can pick any format (for example DVD or VHS) and you can find titles that never made it on them (well at least until now) No format has ever had 100% of all films and TV shows ever made.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by wormraper

it depends on the location... my walmart is about 60/40 in favor of DVD

agree, my WM has more BDs than DVDs (well at least shelf wise)

and as for only "new" movies in store... that's just the future of brick and mortar stores...online is wiping out the need for store space for anything but hot sellers.

agree, I have bought a lot of catalogues in B&M but the reality is that they are always in small quantities and only for the huge titles, when you go more obscure catalogue you need to look harder.

[Jay Mammoth]

Lol some people don't know what niche means, Bluray is definitly not niche.

[RickWJ324]

Originally Posted by Jay Mammoth

Lol some people don't know what niche means, Bluray is definitly not niche.

Exactly! Blu-ray is far from a 'niche' market. 3D blu on the other hand is VERY much a niche market. I'm fairly confident that 4k players and movies will also be niche.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by manunited1

Na, more and more people are discovering bluray now.

That would be nice, but if more and more people are discovering Blu-ray, then people who have already discovered Blu-ray are buying far fewer titles because sales are not good and as per my (long) post above, Blu-ray has only a 21% share of the physical media market.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Blu-ray has only a 21% share of the physical media market.

Why do you suppose that it is that high?

IMO, the vast marjority seem to be be content with cable (TWC, Comcast, Cox, etc.) and/or satellite (Dish, DirecTV) and/or a streaming service. One would think most projector owners would own a BD player and purchase disc but that is a very small minority (1-2%??). So I am not quite sure who is purchasing BD disc, hardware and why.

I fully expected BD to repeat the market share that LaserVision had so it is a pleasant surprise to see the format sell at the level that it has/does, disc and hardware.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

That would be nice, but if more and more people are discovering Blu-ray, then people who have already discovered Blu-ray are buying far fewer titles because sales are not good and as per my (long) post above, Blu-ray has only a 21% share of the physical media market.

Your percentage number is incorrect according to homemediamagazine new report from November 5th. Blu Ray is now on 31% share of the physical media market for the year.

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by mredman

Your percentage number is incorrect according to homemediamagazine new report from November 5th. Blu Ray is now on 31% share of the physical media market for the year.

I believe he was referring to the share of physical discs, which is lower, and not the percentage of sales revenue.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

I believe he was referring to the share of physical discs, which is lower, and not the percentage of sales revenue.

Well in the end of the day its sales that count. And Blu Ray has almost every week a bigger market share than DVD has for the new released big blockbuster movies.

[bruceames]

Blu-ray market share is 31% for the year, but should end up around 33-34% since the market share always jumps in Q4. That's always been the pattern: market share jumps several percentage points in Q4, then holds that level for the next 3 quarters before jumping again. Q4 2013 it was 30.5% so at 31% through Q1-3 it's essentially holding the gain from Q4 last year.

The reason for the jump in Q4 is not gift giving (actually the market share for Black Friday week favors DVD even more), but rather having so many strong box office movies that favor Blu-ray come out during that period. The market share for Blu-ray top 20 sales is generally about 10 percentage points higher than overall sales, but during Q4 it's even more than that.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Blu-ray market share is 31% for the year, but should end up around 33-34% since the market share always jumps in Q4. That's always been the pattern: market share jumps several percentage points in Q4, then holds that level for the next 3 quarters before jumping again. Q4 2013 it was 30.5% so at 31% through Q1-3 it's essentially holding the gain from Q4 last year.

The reason for the jump in Q4 is not gift giving (actually the market share for Black Friday week favors DVD even more), but rather having so many strong box office movies that favor Blu-ray come out during that period. The market share for Blu-ray top 20 sales is generally about 10 percentage points higher than overall sales, but during Q4 it's even more than that.

Bluray sales have been down for the past six weeks in a row I believe. I think YOY it is going to be negative this year.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Bluray sales have been down for the past six weeks in a row I believe. I think YOY it is going to be negative this year.

It looks likely to me as well (remaining weeks the releases are not as strong as last year). However the X factor is the gift giving and Q4 sales: mainly Black Friday week and the 2 weeks leading up to Christmas. Those weeks are the strongest of the year and are not dependent on box office strength so much. If they can continue to grow like they have, then it's possible Blu-ray can be up for the year (I have underestimated those weeks in the past).

But it does look like the best days have come and gone. I think the 2 week early release window for digital is having an effect more than anything else.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

It looks likely to me as well (remaining weeks the releases are not as strong as last year). However the X factor is the gift giving and Q4 sales: mainly Black Friday week and the 2 weeks leading up to Christmas. Those weeks are the strongest of the year and are not dependent on box office strength so much. If they can continue to grow like they have, then it's possible Blu-ray can be up for the year (I have underestimated those weeks in the past).

But it does look like the best days have come and gone. I think the 2 week early release window for digital is having an effect more than anything else.

I would agree with that. I'm eternally optimistic that 4K will have its own little niche that can survive for a good few years.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by mredman

Your percentage number is incorrect according to homemediamagazine new report from November 5th. Blu Ray is now on 31% share of the physical media market for the year.

It has a 31% revenue share, but a 21% unit share of the physical media market. As compared with last year, it's down 2.73% in revenue and 0.31% in units (through 10/25)

And as for the other poster's comment that last year, Blu-ray share increased as we got into the holiday season, it did, but only slightly. At this time last year, it had a 29.3% revenue share of physical media and a 19.5% unit share. At the end of the year, it wound up at a 30.4% revenue share and a 19.9% unit share. With only 9 weeks left in the year, it's hard to up the shares by very much.

Blu-ray has to do $85.34 million per week in the 9 weeks from 11/1 to the end of the year in order to match last year. That's not going to happen. So for the first time, Blu-ray will be below previous year. The last time BD beat previous year was August 23rd and that was only a $32.53 million week for BD.

If BD fans bought the same amount of product they purchased last year and then there were additional consumers new to the format this year, BD would be growing. But that's not the case. So even fans of the format must be buying less. That's certainly not inconceivable if they've already purchased all the catalog product that they've wanted to own.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

It has a 31% revenue share, but a 21% unit share of the physical media market. As compared with last year, it's down 2.73% in revenue and 0.31% in units (through 10/25)

And as for the other poster's comment that last year, Blu-ray share increased as we got into the holiday season, it did, but only slightly. At this time last year, it had a 29.3% revenue share of physical media and a 19.5% unit share. At the end of the year, it wound up at a 30.4% revenue share and a 19.9% unit share. With only 9 weeks left in the year, it's hard to up the shares by very much.

Blu-ray has to do $85.34 million per week in the 9 weeks from 11/1 to the end of the year in order to match last year. That's not going to happen. So for the first time, Blu-ray will be below previous year. The last time BD beat previous year was August 23rd and that was only a $32.53 million week for BD.

If BD fans bought the same amount of product they purchased last year and then there were additional consumers new to the format this year, BD would be growing. But that's not the case. So even fans of the format must be buying less. That's certainly not inconceivable if they've already purchased all the catalog product that they've wanted to own.

Next year is packed with blockbusters so maybe it will better this years total?