Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Unfortunately it looks like Digital HD will reach Blu-ray numbers as soon as next year. Just this last quarter Digital HD was $347 million (per DEG) while Blu-ray did about $390 million (aggregated weekly data from HMM).

As I said, it's mainly because of the two week window favoring Digital HD. As evidence that it's working, the DEG Report stated that new release digital sales are up 70 percent in Q3 and 88 percent for the year. That's compared to overall Digital HD up 26 percent in Q3 and 33 percent for the year. So nearly all the growth is coming from new release.

BTW, I don't consider Blu-ray a niche format just because it's not the top selling format. Many new releases sell well over 50% Blu-ray and some of those well over a million copies. Kinda hard to call that niche. But if overall sales were under, say 10 percent, then yeah I'd agree it's niche.

No, sorry I meant overall bluray sales over the years. Sorry, should have been clearer.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mredman

where are you seeing these numbers
Also Blu Ray ALWAYS sells huge on Black Friday and Christmas weeks. Where digital HD is FLAT. So again Blu Ray will make a lot more money there and push its sales numbers higher these weeks.

http://homemediamagazine.com/researc...-flat-q3-34526



according to the report above digital is minor compared to physical including Blu Ray yet again.

The data comes from the latest DEG Spending Chart. The DEG doesn't specify anymore what percentage of physical sales is Blu-ray, so we have to depend on HMM for that (DEG and HMM data always align very closely so both sources can be used interchangeably).

I agree physical sales get a lot of benefit from holiday sales and gift giving that won't benefit digital. However digital revenue still benefits from a stronger Q4 box office strength so it will go up proportionally in that regard.

From the latest report digital is only 18% of the total sell-through pie (so far for the year). Blu-ray is 25% of that pie and DVD 57%. Not really a huge difference between Digital HD and Blu-ray but to be fair Digital HD includes SD sales so should be compared to DVD + Blu-ray. I was just responding to the point about Digital HD reaching Blu-ray numbers.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

No, sorry I meant overall bluray sales over the years. Sorry, should have been clearer.

Ok that would make quite a difference then. Who knows when it would catch up to that.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Folks need to keep in mind there are ups and downs, rise and fall of most anything you care to address.

Verizon/Redbox streaming is no more, Hulu is still in the red, hard to believe but Amazon is in the red because of Prime, overall Walmart sales are down for the year, Best Buy is in the red, Radio Shack is in the red, Netflix added less subs than expected...............

That said, I may partake of some local Blu-ray disc buying during the Thanksgiving buying period because of the extended promotions at Best Buy, Walmart and Target .

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

From the latest report digital is only 18% of the total sell-through pie (so far for the year). Blu-ray is 25% of that pie and DVD 57%. Not really a huge difference between Digital HD and Blu-ray but to be fair Digital HD includes SD sales so should be compared to DVD + Blu-ray. I was just responding to the point about Digital HD reaching Blu-ray numbers.

Last time I saw them talk about this Digital was getting credit on sell-through for all Digital attached to Blu-Rays and DVDs.

Has that changed?

Because if it hasn't that 18% is highly misleading...people are not purchasing a Blu-Ray/DVD/Digital combo to get their hands on the Digital as a rule, and while it used to be only a Disney title here or there had the digital attached, now every title does.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Last time I saw them talk about this Digital was getting credit on sell-through for all Digital attached to Blu-Rays and DVDs.

Has that changed?

Because if it hasn't that 18% is highly misleading...people are not purchasing a Blu-Ray/DVD/Digital combo to get their hands on the Digital as a rule, and while it used to be only a Disney title here or there had the digital attached, now every title does.

Yes, I would like to know that as well.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Last time I saw them talk about this Digital was getting credit on sell-through for all Digital attached to Blu-Rays and DVDs.

Has that changed?

Because if it hasn't that 18% is highly misleading...people are not purchasing a Blu-Ray/DVD/Digital combo to get their hands on the Digital as a rule, and while it used to be only a Disney title here or there had the digital attached, now every title does.

All sales containing Blu-ray discs are, and have always been, allocated 100 percent to Blu-ray revenue. They do not break it down and give digital this much and DVD that much, etc. It all gets credited to Blu-ray because that's the primary product in the package. Thus the included UV/DC codes do not count at all toward digital revenue meaning that the 18% is pure digital sales.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

The data comes from the latest DEG Spending Chart. The DEG doesn't specify anymore what percentage of physical sales is Blu-ray, so we have to depend on HMM for that (DEG and HMM data always align very closely so both sources can be used interchangeably).

I agree physical sales get a lot of benefit from holiday sales and gift giving that won't benefit digital. However digital revenue still benefits from a stronger Q4 box office strength so it will go up proportionally in that regard.

From the latest report digital is only 18% of the total sell-through pie (so far for the year). Blu-ray is 25% of that pie and DVD 57%. Not really a huge difference between Digital HD and Blu-ray but to be fair Digital HD includes SD sales so should be compared to DVD + Blu-ray. I was just responding to the point about Digital HD reaching Blu-ray numbers.

Thanks for the link. But i like that HMM said in the new report that Digital is minor compared to physical and that Blu Ray and DVD is the industries cash cow

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by mredman

Thanks for the link. But i like that HMM said in the new report that Digital is minor compared to physical and that Blu Ray and DVD is the industries cash cow

Yeah me too. It will be a sad day when it isn't, and hopefully won't happen for many years. Just can't see people collecting digital movies on any scale remotely comparing to physical. So I think physical will always be with us, and in no small proportion either.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Yeah me too. It will be a sad day when it isn't, and hopefully won't happen for many years. Just can't see people collecting digital movies on any scale remotely comparing to physical. So I think physical will always be with us, and in no small proportion either.

I fully believe subscription services are the future for streaming not downloads (ownership). I think we will see a spike in downloads in several years and then it will taper off dramatically as all you can eat movie/TV services become more and more important. Basically we all end up with a new order that looks very much like the old ways (cable).

In this time, I am hoping bluray sticks around for at least the next six or seven years.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I fully believe subscription services are the future for streaming not downloads (ownership). I think we will see a spike in downloads in several years and then it will taper off dramatically as all you can eat movie/TV services become more and more important. Basically we all end up with a new order that looks very much like the old ways (cable).

In this time, I am hoping bluray sticks around for at least the next six or seven years.

it will stick around much longer then that. There will always be physical media. They would never announce 4K blu ray if Blu Ray is not even lasting six years.

There will ALWAYS be people that want Blu Ray and physical media for their favorite movies and tv shows. That will never go away. Like Bruce says digital is not something you can collect and hold on to. Digital and streaming is for the rental crowd. I stream and i still buy buckets of Blu Ray for the movies and tv shows i wanna own. I know there are many that do the same. Like the report says its there the money is for the studios

[rdodolak]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Unfortunately it looks like Digital HD will reach Blu-ray numbers as soon as next year. Just this last quarter Digital HD was $347 million (per DEG) while Blu-ray did about $390 million (aggregated weekly data from HMM).

As I said, it's mainly because of the two week window favoring Digital HD. As evidence that it's working, the DEG Report stated that new release digital sales are up 70 percent in Q3 and 88 percent for the year. That's compared to overall Digital HD up 26 percent in Q3 and 33 percent for the year. So nearly all the growth is coming from new release.

BTW, I don't consider Blu-ray a niche format just because it's not the top selling format. Many new releases sell well over 50% Blu-ray and some of those well over a million copies. Kinda hard to call that niche. But if overall sales were under, say 10 percent, then yeah I'd agree it's niche.

That's not a fair comparison as digital electronic sell-thru isn't just HD content.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Yeah me too. It will be a sad day when it isn't, and hopefully won't happen for many years. Just can't see people collecting digital movies on any scale remotely comparing to physical. So I think physical will always be with us, and in no small proportion either.

No, the sad day will be if/when I can't buy the stuff I want at a reasonable price. If I can still buy what I want I don't really care if everybody else is buying something else.

Do I really care that Frozen outsells Out of the Past by about a billion to one?

Not particularly.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

That's not a fair comparison as digital electronic sell-thru isn't just HD content.

I was responding to another poster's comment which linked the two, and said in a later post that it wasn't a fair comparison.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by octagon

No, the sad day will be if/when I can't buy the stuff I want at a reasonable price. If I can still buy what I want I don't really care if everybody else is buying something else.

Do I really care that Frozen outsells Out of the Past by about a billion to one?

Not particularly.

No, the sad day will be when I can't buy it on Blu-ray at all and have no hope of ever buying it on Blu-ray, because movies like Frozen are outselling movies like Out of the Past by a billion to one. What other people spend their money on has a huge effect on what the studios decide to release in the future.

The price doesn't concern me. The important thing is availability, and if that means higher prices because that's the only way a low sellers can be viable, then so be it.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

No, the sad day will be when I can't buy it on Blu-ray at all and have no hope of ever buying it on Blu-ray, because movies like Frozen are outselling movies like Out of the Past by a billion to one. What other people spend their money on has a huge effect on what the studios decide to release in the future.

The price doesn't concern me. The important thing is availability, and if that means higher prices because that's the only way a low sellers can be viable, then so be it.

Agreed

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Why do you suppose that it is that high?

IMO, the vast marjority seem to be be content with cable (TWC, Comcast, Cox, etc.) and/or satellite (Dish, DirecTV) and/or a streaming service. One would think most projector owners would own a BD player and purchase disc but that is a very small minority (1-2%??). So I am not quite sure who is purchasing BD disc, hardware and why.

I fully expected BD to repeat the market share that LaserVision had so it is a pleasant surprise to see the format sell at the level that it has/does, disc and hardware.

Blu-ray players and media are far less expensive than Laserdiscs were. Laserdiscs was truly niche. (I never felt I could afford it even though I was sort of in the business - I only had a machine at the office.) Blu-ray was not supposed to be niche. There are back catalog titles on Blu-ray that are $5 to $7 and there are plenty of players as low as $55. Amazon lists over 11,000 Blu-ray titles under $15 and almost 7000 titles under $10.

We never had anything close to that for Laserdiscs. A $40 Laserdisc title in 1989 (the midlife of the format in the U.S.) would be $89 today. The Pioneer CLD-1010, which was NOT the top-of-the-line, retailed for $1000 in 1987 ($2095 today).

So I really don't think they can be compared. Where I agree with you is that many people are content with lower quality. Also, I think the industry has done a lousy job explaining what Blu-ray is. Ask the average person what Blu-ray is and they can't tell you (and I'm not expecting a technical response - just saying that it's a DVD with better quality sound and picture would be enough.)

Considering how inexpensive both players and media are, I feel that BD should have done a lot better at this point in its life. But it's hard to compete with free and near-free and people are only going to devote so much of their budgets to media. If they're already subscribing to cable and a service like Netflix, there's reluctance to invest in another media.

Also, in spite of the tremendous advantages to BD (and to physical media in general), the generation who has grown up with digital downloading for music and is now quickly converting to streaming services has no interest in owning physical media (aside from the niche hipsters who love vinyl LPs).

So combine all that with a still poor economy in the U.S. for average people (no increases in real income for the middle class in 30 years) and you can see why BD has not been as successful as it deserves to be. Oh yeah...and then there's the decline of physical retail to add fuel to the fire.

Also, when there are so many alternatives, sometimes we get to the point where none of them are able to survive financially. Fast food restaurants make a lot of money, but if you open five of them on the same block, none of them are going to survive. I think that's what's happening with media distribution.

[Lincoln6Echo]

OK, just to preface my question here, I don't think so based on what I see here at this site with so many older (B&W and Golden Era of Hollywood) limited audience films being released to the format. But I was browsing one of my old forums last night, the TrekBBS, just looking for any news about if STS9 was gonna get a remastered BD release and I was shocked at some of the comments in those threads. Many talked about the decreasing sales of the format, decreased production of them in favor of the cheaper Enhanced Definition 480p DVDs (whatever that is) and the advent and increasingly more popular streaming services (Netflix, iTunes, Hulu, Amazon).

But I don't get it nor see it. All of us here, at least most of us, would argue that for the best PQ and AQ you can't go wrong with BD, being superior to any streaming product. And against 480p DVD? Let's not even go there. I kind of think that this attitude comes from people who aren't audio and videophiles, and who aren't collectors to begin with. I mean, I refuse to buy some titles because they aren't on BD. As far as TV series go, I think perhaps the reason more TV series aren't released on BD is because many don't have a lot of rewatchability, and the lack of multi-disc carousel BD players. It would be really nice if you could load up a 4 to 6 disc season of discs all at one time.

Now then, the discussion in TrekBBS was of course centered around any potential DS9 or VOY releases and the mood was somber because sales of TNG weren't as strong as CBS/Paramount had hoped, and some direct inquiries to CBS came back with "not at this time", but that sounds more like a typical canned response to me than any serious answer. I mean S7 of TNG just came out this past December, so I'd imagine that DS9 and/or VOY will eventually get a remastering because there will always be Trek fans and its CBS's biggest franchise cash cow. With the 50th Anniversary of Trek coming up in a few years, and Trek 3 coming out soon, I can't believe that he folks behind the TNG remastering project aren't more than willing to preserve those two series as well.

[wormraper]

oh lord, isn't this the third thread like this in the last week?

[Ray Jackson]

I surely hope not.

...makes me sick to think of how many UV codes I've sold.