Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Ray_Rogers

Yes. No.

My point is, are they engaged with the big screen. Probably not. Are you denying that personal, portable screens are not taking off in a huge way?

[eiknarf]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

My point is, are they engaged with the big screen. Probably not. Are you denying that personal, portable screens are not taking off in a huge way?

Personal, portable screens indeed are taking off in a huge way...for things other than feature length films.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by eiknarf

Personal, portable screens indeed are taking off in a huge way...for things other than feature length films.

It's amazing how things take off when they become cheap. A recent study (I will try to find it) suggested that video watched on mobile will have a market share of 20 % by 2025. That is taking market shares from television and the desktop. How long before that market share overtakes tv watching? Are you telling me that future gens won't be watching movies on a regular basis with their devices by then?

[eiknarf]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

It's amazing how things take off when they become cheap. A recent study (I will try to find it) suggested that video watched on mobile will have a market share of 20 % by 2025. That is taking market shares from television and the desktop. How long before that market share overtakes tv watching? Are you telling me that future gens won't be watching movies on a regular basis with their devices by then?

It's odd.
People had a goal to try to recreate the movie theater experience at home. Bigger Tvs. Bigger sound. Bass. Surround....etc
So now the next generation is going to abandon that?
Yes these portable screens work well for watching a six minute comedy skit, a game walkthrough, a tutorial, a math lesson...etc
But movies?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by eiknarf

It's odd.
People had a goal to try to recreate the movie theater experience at home. Bigger Tvs. Bigger sound. Bass. Surround....etc
So now the next generation is going to abandon that?
Yes these portable screens work well for watching a six minute comedy skit, a game walkthrough, a tutorial, a math lesson...etc
But movies?

But they don't see movies like we do. It's just another disposable media. I just think there is a danger that if something like the above idea (or indeed that very idea) was implemented, we would see a mass exodus away from the tv and towards mobile. I think this could happen within 20 years (tv sets and home cinema completely obsolete) some may note care because they won't be around. I plan (God willing) on living at least 35-40 more years lol.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Are you telling me that future gens won't be watching movies on a regular basis with their devices by then?

No, I'm telling you I don't care. I watched movies on 12" black-and-white TV when I was a kid and the world didn't end. My nieces and nephews watch movies and TV shows on 17" high-definition laptop screens and 10" high-definition tablets and the world will likely survive that too.

TVs keep getting bigger and thinner and lighter and cheaper and there is absolutely no reason to expect this trend stop. And expecting it to not only stop but to reverse itself is completely absurd.

[eiknarf]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

But they don't see movies like we do. It's just another disposable media. I just think there is a danger that if something like the above idea (or indeed that very idea) was implemented, we would see a mass exodus away from the tv and towards mobile. I think this could happen within 20 years (tv sets and home cinema completely obsolete) some may note care because they won't be around. I plan (God willing) on living at least 35-40 more years lol.

Like everything else, all screen sizes and ways to watch and do things will all coexist.
People over at NASA and air traffic control aren't going to abandon large screens for small portable ones... Graphic artists will continue to work on larger and larger screens... Home theater enthusiasts and sports fans will continue to watch movies and the games on their big TV's... Gaming can be done on small screens or large screens... Etc

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by octagon

No, I'm telling you I don't care. I watched movies on 12" black-and-white TV when I was a kid and the world didn't end. My nieces and nephews watch movies and TV shows on 17" high-definition laptop screens and 10" high-definition tablets and the world will likely survive that too.

TVs keep getting bigger and thinner and lighter and cheaper and there is absolutely no reason to expect this trend stop. And expecting it to not only stop but to reverse itself is completely absurd.

Not really. The profit pool has to stay big enough to be worthwhile. What would be the point of people buying to sets only to be overcharged to watch a movie because they prefer the big screen? It would only tick people off and encourage the mass exodus that I speak of. Again, I use DVD as the example. Millions must be watching SD on their tv despite HD being available. The smartphone movie theory is simply the crazy end to that twisted reality. Cheap as chips wins the day remember. I believe the 'pay by screen size' scenario will almost certainly happen at some point.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

By the way, I have never said TVs sets are about to disappear. My posts always refer to the future and how current trends/plans could affect things.

You go back and forth on the specific time frame but you've repeatedly claimed TVs could disappear within ten years.

This is ridiculous. Period.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by eiknarf

Like everything else, all screen sizes and ways to watch and do things will all coexist.
People over at NASA and air traffic control aren't going to abandon large screens for small portable ones... Graphic artists will continue to work on larger and larger screens... Home theater enthusiasts and sports fans will continue to watch movies and the games on their big TV's... Gaming can be done on small screens or large screens... Etc

What if the profit margin from this potential future pricing isn't high enough to maintain high quality HD copies on a tv screen? If the vast majority buy the cheaper tablet or smartphone version (and they will, the past has proven they will) aren't we left with a DVD only scenario. What I mean is at present, certain films are t getting a bluray release because DVD is still by far the most popular format and blu is seen as a risk.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by octagon

You go back and forth on the specific time frame but you've repeatedly claimed TVs could disappear within ten years.

This is ridiculous. Period.

20 years? Still ridiculous? I don't know. Maybe someone with a total understanding of the market could help. How long exactly would it take? Using the study I mentioned earlier, mobile video to be 20 % of all video watching by 2025. Going by that, how long in theory if those figures carry on at that speed before tv sets and desktops (they have larger majority obviously) are in single digits and mobile is the completely dominant format for movie/tv watching. Please consider the switch that could occur if movies on smartphones become cheaper to watch than tv by 2025 (the ten years stated by the Dreamworks CEO before the pay by screen size scenario could potentially be put in place.)

[Aclea]

Originally Posted by eiknarf

It's odd.
People had a goal to try to recreate the movie theater experience at home. Bigger Tvs. Bigger sound. Bass. Surround....etc
So now the next generation is going to abandon that?

To a large degree it's already been abandoned. For years the aim in film production was to get the best visual and sound quality, experimenting with systems like Cinerama and 65mm, constantly refining lenses and film stocks. Now the obsession is with making every other movie look like it was shot on a phone by an amateur, with compressed sound and lifeless color - and many filmmakers will spend enormous amounts to make their films look cheap. There's been a complete move away from trying to improve the quality in the belief that shakeycam, overediting, orange-and-teal grading, bleach bypass desaturation et al are somehow more authentic. Which in itself may be one of the reasons that a high definition format like Blu-ray hasn't taken off the way VHS and DVD did: quality presentation simply isn't that important to the current generation of moviegoers.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Aclea

To a large degree it's already been abandoned. For years the aim in film production was to get the best visual and sound quality, experimenting with systems like Cinerama and 65mm, constantly refining lenses and film stocks. Now the obsession is with making every other movie look like it was shot on a phone by an amateur, with compressed sound and lifeless color - and many filmmakers will spend enormous amounts to make their films look cheap. There's been a complete move away from trying to improve the quality in the belief that shakeycam, overediting, orange-and-teal grading, bleach bypass desaturation et al are somehow more authentic. Which in itself may be one of the reasons that a high definition format like Blu-ray hasn't taken off the way VHS and DVD did: quality presentation simply isn't that important to the current generation of moviegoers.

Or screen size for that matter.

[Errol Riddick]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Or screen size for that matter.

Boy, are you on the lam from a State Run Psychiatric Ward?

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

20 years? Still ridiculous?

Absolutely.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Using the study I mentioned earlier, mobile video to be 20 % of all video watching by 2025. Going by that, how long in theory if those figures carry on at that speed before tv sets and desktops (they have larger majority obviously) are in single digits and mobile is the completely dominant format for movie/tv watching.

A) I can't image a scenario under which phones and tablets are the dominant format for movie/tv watching. People like big screens (including those damn kids today who go to theaters far more frequently than people our ages).

B) Let's say in some bizarre alternate reality A does come to pass. So what? You still have to make a case that the dominant way of watching movies or TV shows will be the only way of watching movies or TV shows and reality simply does not reflect your 'all one or all the other' way of seeing things.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Please consider the switch that could occur if movies on smartphones become cheaper to watch than tv by 2025 (the ten years stated by the Dreamworks CEO before the pay by screen size scenario could potentially be put in place.)

I have considered this and I think your conclusions are ridiculous.

Standard definition programming is currently cheaper than high definition programming and yet high definition programming is thriving. McDonald's is cheaper than Applebee's or Olive Garden or the like which are in turn cheaper than fine dining and yet Applebee's and Olive Garden and fine dining are all thriving. Buying clothes at Kmart or Target is cheaper than buying nicer clothes at more expensive stores and yet there is no shortage of more expensive stores selling nicer clothes.

You say cheap as chips wins the day but that's simply not true. At least not in the binary, black-and-white way you're painting things.

It's true that you can't walk more than a block or two without seeing a McDonalds but you only have walk another ten or fifteen feet to find something else.

[mar3o]

This is a ridiculous discussion going on right now. TVs aren't going anywhere. Sports alone will guarantee that large-screen HDTVs aren't going anywhere. Are all the sports fans supposed to huddle around the tablet or phone during the Superbowl? Believe it or not, people do still have family nights and do watch tv together. Millions of people every night watch tv with somebody else. Anybody that thinks TVs will be abandoned for smartphones is cuckoo. Walk into any Target, Costco, Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Sam''s Club, BJ's, etc. and you'll see isles and walls full of large-screen HDTVs, cheaper than they've ever been. A husband and wife are not going to gather around the phone to watch a movie. This is an absurd line of thinking.

Originally Posted by Aclea

To a large degree it's already been abandoned. For years the aim in film production was to get the best visual and sound quality, experimenting with systems like Cinerama and 65mm, constantly refining lenses and film stocks. Now the obsession is with making every other movie look like it was shot on a phone by an amateur, with compressed sound and lifeless color - and many filmmakers will spend enormous amounts to make their films look cheap. There's been a complete move away from trying to improve the quality in the belief that shakeycam, overediting, orange-and-teal grading, bleach bypass desaturation et al are somehow more authentic. Which in itself may be one of the reasons that a high definition format like Blu-ray hasn't taken off the way VHS and DVD did: quality presentation simply isn't that important to the current generation of moviegoers.

I will agree here that the current trend of movies is to look as ugly as possible, and it's depressing to say the least. Gone are bright, natural, gorgeous colors. Instead we get, dark, dull, dreary, ugly, de-saturated images that either have little color to speak of, or a deep yellow/teal/orange tint. They even go so far as to make older films look like this on blu-ray when they never previously looked that way. I keep hoping this ridiculous trend will go away, but it shows no signs of stopping. This may indeed play somewhat into people not caring so much about blu-ray quality in general. People don't even know what a good film looks like anymore.

[Jake2104]

Im 17 so I guess I can give a good insight into the way new generations thinks about and watches movies. I do buy blu-rays (just discs in general) of my favorite movies as I like to recreate the cinema experience at home instead of watching on a small screen. The never watch movies on my smart phone, and only do watch some on my iPad or Laptop when Im away from home.

That being said, I am the only one that I know that buys discs, everyone else my age streams movies, not even legal streaming like Netflix or iTunes, they use illegal streaming sites or just download them outright from torrents, as what has been mentioned in this thread they think of movies as just disposable entertainment and is not worth paying for.

So really why people are debating physical to streaming, note that most people in from the new generation streaming is done for free and the reason they are not getting blu-ray's or physical disk's is because they don't want to pay for movies in general, which is a bigger problem for the entertainment industry.

This actually leads to where streaming is today as the studios try to convince people to pay for movies by giving them a convent option (iTunes, Vudu etc) or a cheap option (Netflix). But the problem is the mind set of my generation has already been set on movies are not something they should have to pay for. Heck even some of my friends don't go to the cinema anymore cause they can either torrent a cam or wait 2 months and get a good copy to watch for free at home.

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by Jake2104

Im 17 so I guess I can give a good insight into the way new generations thinks about and watches movies. I do buy blu-rays (just discs in general) of my favorite movies as I like to recreate the cinema experience at home instead of watching on a small screen. The never watch movies on my smart phone, and only do watch some on my iPad or Laptop when Im away from home.

That being said, I am the only one that I know that buys discs, everyone else my age streams movies, not even legal streaming like Netflix or iTunes, they use illegal streaming sites or just download them outright from torrents, as what has been mentioned in this thread they think of movies as just disposable entertainment and is not worth paying for.

So really why people are debating physical to streaming, note that most people in from the new generation streaming is done for free and the reason they are not getting blu-ray's or physical disk's is because they don't want to pay for movies in general, which is a bigger problem for the entertainment industry.

This actually leads to where streaming is today as the studios try to convince people to pay for movies by giving them a convent option (iTunes, Vudu etc) or a cheap option (Netflix). But the problem is the mind set of my generation has already been set on movies are not something they should have to pay for. Heck even some of my friends don't go to the cinema anymore cause they can either torrent a cam or wait 2 months and get a good copy to watch for free at home.

This is all very depressing.

[octagon]

What's depressing about it? They're seventeen. Seventeen year olds have always been cheap (primarily because they've always been broke).

[mredman]

And yet just last week in just one week into its release Furious 7 sold 2.5 million discs with 62% being Blu-Ray and that was in the States alone. Who bought those i think This franchise has a lot of Young people.