Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Rocklandsboy]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Again, I don't see this happening for 4-5 years until HDR sets are the norm.

If it hasn't caught on within 4-5 years, then...

[dvdmike]

Originally Posted by Rocklandsboy

If it hasn't caught on within 4-5 years, then...

But what version of HDR do you want two copies of the upscaled Mad Max as you want the newly re-released Dolby vision version because you have a Dolby vision set and want to justify its purchace?
The format is a mess of standards and half steps.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Rocklandsboy

If it hasn't caught on within 4-5 years, then...

The 4-5 years was for reaching a deeper demographic. The average Joe. Blu-ray still hasn't reached a 40% physical market share after nearly 10 years. I think UHD BD will do better than that, IMHO.

[Geoff D]

Originally Posted by dvdmike

But what version of HDR do you want two copies of the upscaled Mad Max as you want the newly re-released Dolby vision version because you have a Dolby vision set and want to justify its purchace?
The format is a mess of standards and half steps.

Sad thing is though Mike it was now or never for 4K Blu-ray, if they took another couple of years to hash everything out I think people would've built up such big collections of streaming/download/THEY COME THRU THE INTERNET WHATEVER 4K movies and TV shows. Besides, Blu-ray launched half-baked with regards to its feature set so Son of Blu-ray™ hasn't fallen far from the tree.

[dvdmike]

Originally Posted by Geoff D

Sad thing is though Mike it was now or never for 4K Blu-ray, if they took another couple of years to hash everything out I think people would've built up such big collections of streaming/download/THEY COME THRU THE INTERNET WHATEVER 4K movies and TV shows. Besides, Blu-ray launched half-baked with regards to its feature set so Son of Blu-ray™ hasn't fallen far from the tree.

Oh I get it, they needed to do something but they chose CED

[42041]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Blu-ray still hasn't reached a 40% physical market share after nearly 10 years. I think UHD BD will do better than that, IMHO.

How do you figure?

[Rocklandsboy]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

The 4-5 years was for reaching a deeper demographic. The average Joe. Blu-ray still hasn't reached a 40% physical market share after nearly 10 years. I think UHD BD will do better than that, IMHO.

I admire your optimism but, based on a long history of diminishing returns, I would estimate 20% maximum market share for UHD BD. The format barely offers anything in its native resolution, many titles are 2K/4K combinations, and HDR has still not proven itself - and leaves a sour taste in the mouths of many purists (i.e. the majority of the target audience).

[dvdmike]

Originally Posted by 42041

How do you figure?

Look at the post history.....

[Adrian Wright]

Sums up this thread

[dvdmike]

That should have been a 4k screen from the 4k master

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by 42041

How do you figure?

How do I figure what? That it hasn't reached 40% or that UHD BD won't reach it?

Last year Blu-ray did 33.7% revenue share for the format as a whole. So far this year it's 34.0%. Top 20-wise it averages in the low 40's though, with most top movies getting over a 50% share. But overall, it's well under 40%.

[42041]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

How do I figure what? That it hasn't reached 40% or that UHD BD won't reach it?

That it will be more successful than blu-ray.
Even if we grant that people care about HDR, you can stream HDR, so what is UHD offering that differentiates it from blu-ray's situation? You end up in the same spot - trying to sell people on better compression and physical discs. Seems rather far-fetched to me.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by 42041

That it will be more successful than blu-ray.
Even if we grant that people care about HDR, you can stream HDR, so what is UHD offering that differentiates it from blu-ray's situation? You end up in the same spot - trying to sell people on better compression and physical discs. Seems rather far-fetched to me.

I meant physical market share, not including digital sell-through as well. UHD BD share within that market will eventually get over 40%, even as the market itself continues to decline.

Sure you can stream HDR, but remember most of Blu-ray revenue comes from new and recent releases and those are not available on a la carte streaming services. Another point to consider is that the UHD HDR will be offered as a pack-in to UHD BD purchases (as well as the BD), so it will be the better value (than buying a $25 HDR new release streaming movie by itself).

Yes, it's optimistic, but it's hard not to be once you've enjoyed it at home these last few weeks. And it will only get better as TVs get better and encodes do as well. This is something the average person with a smallish TV can really appreciate, which has been the stumbling block with Blu-ray so far (the need to sit closer or get a bigger TV, which most don't have).

[cole2kb]

....and OP was never heard from again.

[ack_bak]

The reality is that within a few years 4K TV's that support HDR will be the norm, no matter the size, and 1080p will be phased out, or only found in smaller, cheaper TV's that are not front and center for consumers to buy.

And in 3-4 years 8K will be all the rage and the cycle will repeat...

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

The reality is that within a few years 4K TV's that support HDR will be the norm, no matter the size, and 1080p will be phased out, or only found in smaller, cheaper TV's that are not front and center for consumers to buy.

And in 3-4 years 8K will be all the rage and the cycle will repeat...

That's true for TVs, but software-wise it has been a different story. Way too many people watching DVDs on their HDTVs. Even now, two of the bigger releases this week aren't even coming out on Blu-ray (both are TV shows). Hopefully this time consumers will better appreciate the upgrade since it's multi-faceted and not dependent on screen size or viewing distance.

[JoeDeM]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

How do I figure what? That it hasn't reached 40% or that UHD BD won't reach it?

Last year Blu-ray did 33.7% revenue share for the format as a whole. So far this year it's 34.0%. Top 20-wise it averages in the low 40's though, with most top movies getting over a 50% share. But overall, it's well under 40%.

In order for UHD BD to gain, they need to drop the Blu-ray+DVD Combo, and replace it with UHD+Blu-ray Combo, this will simplify the market, and they can still release a separate DVD for those that refuse to upgrade.

[jrauseo]

Originally Posted by ack_bak

The reality is that within a few years 4K TV's that support HDR will be the norm, no matter the size, and 1080p will be phased out, or only found in smaller, cheaper TV's that are not front and center for consumers to buy.

And in 3-4 years 8K will be all the rage and the cycle will repeat...

The cycle can only repeat so far. If 8K is already being announced at places like CES then what will make people want 4K when 8K is right around the corner? People will not upgrade their TVs again in 3-4 years if 4K becomes 8K. No way, not a chance. That will fail big time, especially when most movies are only shot in 4K and then digitally mastered in 2K. 8K is a massive waste of time and effort from these companies. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.

Also, most people have a set somewhere in that sweet spot of 50-55" these days, which is useless for UHD resolution. So they would be banking on HDR, but from what I have heard HDR is really a matter of personal preference when it comes to color, some people like it and some people do not. But that is just early reviews so who knows.

I just think the whole thing is silly. A DVD is a good enough format for watching a movie at home, and a Blu-ray is top notch and anything more is so unnecessary for 99.9% of people. I will be very very surprised if 4K ever becomes a real "thing" outside of a very small niche of A/V geeks.

I am just going to sit here and wait for all these consumers that everyone claims will be buying UHD so that I can scoop up the Blu-rays at current DVD prices. Cannot wait for the 50 cent Blu-rays on ebay and at pawn shops if this format does take off, so by all means, buy up that UHD and leave the cheap Blu-ray stuff for the rest of us.

[jrauseo]

Originally Posted by JoeDeM

In order for UHD BD to gain, they need to drop the Blu-ray+DVD Combo, and replace it with UHD+Blu-ray Combo, this will simplify the market, and they can still release a separate DVD for those that refuse to upgrade.

But if you still offer the DVD for those who refuse to upgrade, then people are not ready/want UHD. You either have to make the change as a whole and slowly eliminate DVD, or the format loses. I do not think there were any VHS tapes still being pushed when Blu-ray was announced, because that is counter productive to the new format.

But, people will still want DVDs because there is not a real reason for most people to even go from DVD to Blu-ray. The average consumer could give a shit less about the resolution and HDR and things like that. They care about cost, and when a new DVD is $15, a Blu-ray is $20, and UHD is $30, good luck getting America's middle class to shell out $30 for a movie.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by JoeDeM

In order for UHD BD to gain, they need to drop the Blu-ray+DVD Combo, and replace it with UHD+Blu-ray Combo, this will simplify the market, and they can still release a separate DVD for those that refuse to upgrade.

I'm surprised they're still doing combos with DVDs. Most people prefer the UV/DC than the DVD, as part of the reason was to accommodate different players in the house (the other was to sell DVD buyers on BD, but that ship has sailed). Now it's far easier to just stream it. My 5 year old granddaughter has an easy time going through the kids movies in my VUDU collection. With DVDs it would be a pain.