Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[I KEEL YOU]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

What do you expect at launch, 10%?

There's only a few thousand players out there and a small handful of titles. This is exactly what I was referring regarding not judging the format so early. Blu-ray only had a 5% share after nearly two years. These new formats tend to start out at a tiny market share.

Actually, yes. I expected around 10 percent right around the launch, then to fall to 3-5 percent over the following months after the hype factor with the launch (which was non existent) died out, and then start gradually climbing again to 10 percent and beyond. 0.10 is insanely low. But I know that some delusional people here will see the glass as being 0.10 percent full than 99.90 percent empty. And those 0.10 percent are only of the physical market as far as I understand, not counting the ever increasing digital competition.

[infiniteCR]

These things take time. I'll bet that I start to buy UHD blus in about 5-10 years as all my equipment slowly gets refreshed to the new standards.

[Rocklandsboy]

Originally Posted by infiniteCR

These things take time. I'll bet that I start to buy UHD blus in about 5-10 years as all my equipment slowly gets refreshed to the new standards.

In 10 years the next format will be launched. That's how the industry rolls.

[cole2kb]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

Actually, yes. I expected around 10 percent right around the launch, then to fall to 3-5 percent over the following months after the hype factor with the launch (which was non existent) died out, and then start gradually climbing again to 10 percent and beyond. 0.10 is insanely low. But I know that some delusional people here will see the glass as being 0.10 percent full than 99.90 percent empty. And those 0.10 percent are only of the physical market as far as I understand, not counting the ever increasing digital competition.

There is also a huge issue with availability right now which did not plague Blu-ray upon launch. UHD will be much more of a slow burn because of this alone; you can't simply ignore that fact.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by I KEEL YOU

Actually, yes. I expected around 10 percent right around the launch, then to fall to 3-5 percent over the following months after the hype factor with the launch (which was non existent) died out, and then start gradually climbing again to 10 percent and beyond. 0.10 is insanely low. But I know that some delusional people here will see the glass as being 0.10 percent full than 99.90 percent empty. And those 0.10 percent are only of the physical market as far as I understand, not counting the ever increasing digital competition.

You do realize that the .10% is because only 2 UHD titles were in the top 20? The UHD share for those two movies among Blu-ray was around 2%.

Believe it or not, the market share for physical media starts at the bottom and works its way up. It doesn't start in the middle, go down and then go back up.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by HeavyHitter

I think the margin of success or waiting time is going to be a lot smaller for UHD BD. In other words, if sales are not up to par (whatever that low barrier may be), I think we could see the plug pulled. If sales are still just a spec after the next two years, I think the format will be in serious danger of going extinct.

Very unlikely. A lot of Blu-ray buyers will be future proofing and getting the UHD code in the bargain. Would you rather pay $20 for a new release and get a Blu-ray and an HD code. Or pay $25-$30 to get Blu-ray, a UHD BD and a UHD code? The code alone can be sold for the price difference.

Also with the 2016 and 2017 TV that will truly meet UHD Premium specs that will bring out the full range of HDR, we'll start seeing a bigger difference in quality between BD and UHD. There was only 1 TV last year that meets the Premium spec and that's the Sony 940C (with a few others coming close).

[jibucha]

seriously? :: no one is going to 'pull the plug'; this is happening; it's a far more significant advancement than anything previously

'information gap'? :: simply, currently most are simply 'uninformed', which is to be expected

UltraHD :: it's overwhelming just 'how much' improvement is already available, with 'much more' forthcoming, whether realized or not

Originally Posted by HeavyHitter

I think the margin of success or waiting time is going to be a lot smaller for UHD BD. In other words, if sales are not up to par (whatever that low barrier may be), I think we could see the plug pulled. If sales are still just a spec after the next two years, I think the format will be in serious danger of going extinct.

[Mighty Max]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Very unlikely. A lot of Blu-ray buyers will be future proofing and getting the UHD code in the bargain. Would you rather pay $20 for a new release and get a Blu-ray and an HD code. Or pay $25-$30 to get Blu-ray, a UHD BD and a UHD code? The code alone can be sold for the price difference.

Where?
Most everyone that messages me doesn't want to pay more than $2 for a code.
I sell movie codes for a flat $5 and i sell the tv show codes at different prices... the highest being $20 for the full season of outlander.

So, no, at least in my experience, codes can't offset the price difference between uhd and bd.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Mighty Max

Where?
Most everyone that messages me doesn't want to pay more than $2 for a code.
I sell movie codes for a flat $5 and i sell the tv show codes at different prices... the highest being $20 for the full season of outlander.

So, no, at least in my experience, codes can't offset the price difference between uhd and bd.

Have you bought or sold a UHD code? I think they'll go for around $8 or so, which I think will be around the price difference between BD and UHD on release week.

[Mighty Max]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Have you bought or sold a UHD code? I think they'll go for around $8 or so, which I think will be around the price difference between BD and UHD on release week.

A code from a UHD set is no different than one from a BD Set.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Mighty Max

A code from a UHD set is no different than one from a BD Set.

The Warner codes are. They redeem UHD on Vudu now. The other studios will follow suit soon.

[Mighty Max]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

The Warner codes are. They redeem UHD on Vudu now. The other studios will follow suit soon.

Ok, good to know. I only sell the codes. I own the BDs so I have no need to redeem the codes.

[peterraes]

[QUOTE=Blu-Dog;12025187]I'm glad you're speaking for yourself, and not me. I have a 79", non-HDR screen, and eagerly plunged into 4K early on. Of course, I got stung. My set cost $8,000, and moved my Kuro to casual use, and obviously it was a mistake.


This thing is a fad, and needs a serious move to standardization to become mature. It's not about satisfaction with the status quo, or non-affordability.




I'm glad you're leaving. Don't let the doorknob whack your tailbone on the way out. I've heard enough weeping already.[/QUOTEth
Think your missing something special by not having a HDR set?
Do some research about HDR video and try to get a viewing on a calibrated display,then come back here and give me your honest opinion...dont be fooled by the "buzz" right now about HDR ,just view it yourself before making judgement!
They WILL slap you around with brighter whites and deeper blacks but only in the portion of the picture where it is "normal",seriously....they take us for fools the industry?
Been collecting movies since betamax,laserdisc,dvd..and i always watch on calibrated displays,NEVER otherwise.
I had the chance to see it at the professionals and i went home verry dissapointed ,not because of the 4K..WCG and 10Bit...the HDR is the real "filmlook" killer.
I'm still on hold for a top 4K projektor as i'm not sure what to do really ,HDR really puts me off ,i'm a purist and (slightly) obsessed about how i view my movies.
That does not mean it has to be for others here ,if you dont mind HDR and dont give a damn about artistic ...then your oke i guess and can enjoy it.
PS:sorry for spelling errors etc...my native language is flemish.

[chip75]

If we get UHD codes in the UK with our releases I'd certainly be tempted to buy the combo packs and future proof my movies, but until then I'm not sure it's worth it. The UK UV services are terribly lacking in title support (depending on devices) and we just lost another service off the PlayStation (blinkbox will remove it's service shortly).

If I can play UHD codes on a 4K TV then I'd be very interested.

[infiniteCR]

Originally Posted by Rocklandsboy

In 10 years the next format will be launched. That's how the industry rolls.

Yes, true, its a shame. With all the HDR controversy its just not worth upgrading everything prematurely.

[murphywmm]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

The 4-5 years was for reaching a deeper demographic. The average Joe. Blu-ray still hasn't reached a 40% physical market share after nearly 10 years. I think UHD BD will do better than that, IMHO.

[HeavyHitter]

Originally Posted by jibucha

seriously? :: no one is going to 'pull the plug'; this is happening; it's a far more significant advancement than anything previously

'information gap'? :: simply, currently most are simply 'uninformed', which is to be expected

UltraHD :: it's overwhelming just 'how much' improvement is already available, with 'much more' forthcoming, whether realized or not

And "most" will stay uniformed. Streaming (sub par) would continue to gobble up market share. The advancement from BD to UHD BD is not as advanced as has been from other formats for various reasons which has been pointed out ad nauseum.

[Ruined]

Biggest barrier for me is intrusive DRM capability combined with diminishing returns over BD

[4K fanatic]

I dont have HDR but do have 10 bit color depth and hdcp 2.2 via a 2014-65UB9500. I have 30mbps internet as well. Netflix docs like oceans and waterfalls look great. I oniw Breaking Bad is some upscaled version but it looks better than nearly any other 4K movies. OAR sucks for 4K- not even worth upgrading. Maye my family room is too big and sitting 15' away from a 65'' set is too far but how absurd is it to have ur couch 5' from a 65'' set? Id buy The Martian UHD Vudu digital copy but i learned my lesson of buying Blu-ray films, watching once and having them collect dust on a shelf. Im not paying half a grand for a Samsung player with no digital uhd rental service. If uhd blu ray is still around, ill buy when a PS4 or Xbox has one built in. Until then, ill wait for more of a widespread Direct TV 4K offerring or Vudu and MGO w/my 30mbps internet.

[veritas]

One of the biggest barriers is really just lack of content and high starting price. if Disney released the force awakens in 4k or if we got the hobbit trilogy with high frame rate perhaps the original star wars trilogy in 4k with the proper fixes those are the kinds of things that would make me buy 4k. Basically 4k has released perhaps 1 or 2 movies I want to own in 4k so far. So I cant really be bothered to buy 4k right now. I already have a 4k tv so ill count it as sunk cost but buying a 4k blu ray player and 1 or 2 movies would mean i would be paying what 180$ per movie. I need proper deals in either the player or the blu rays or a huge collection to distribute that cost over or I cant even justify it.

One other big barrier is the not including 3d in the combo packs. the 3d buyers are the ones that showed a willingness to pay premiums for content and now your really just spliting a nitch in half hurting both 4k and 3d.

I would say the biggest problem 3d had was bad quality control. Movies with horribly done 3d. Tv sets that should be sued for false advertising saying they do 3d. price gauging for almost all 3d movies. Really 3d never built up a very loyal customer base and it will be interesting to see if 4k falls into the same traps as the same traps mostly exist for 4k.