Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[david2189]

think we're gettin ahead of ourselves here, still gotta takeover dvds reign.

[cartier]

Originally Posted by Chazcov08

Sorry, but this is here today. Have you ever seen a movie ripped from a BD and re-encoded as an H.264 MKV file? Indistinguishable from the original, and less than 9GB.

People trade these online like mp3s.

I'm not promoting this, I'm just letting you know that "decades away" is yesterday. I'm happy to watch BD movies on my PS3, but the future is now.

If they had some sort of pay-per-download of these high-def movies, someone would make a killing.

I think many here would argue this point with you, however I am presently disinclined as it has been done in other threads.

[jubei29]

Considering COMBINED HD-DVD/Blu Ray sales on a month per month basis didn't beat out VHS (impossible to even find these days) until August of 07, I'm saying it doesn't have enough time to catch standard DVD. Niche market is the best it'll be, but that doesn't mean you can't enjoy the hell out of it until the next big thing comes along. Tech moves a lot faster now a days compared to the VHS days.

VHS ----Laserdisc(bridged the gap)----DVD

DVD ----BluRay(bridged the gap)----????

[Chazcov08]

Originally Posted by cartier

I think many here would argue this point with you, however I am presently disinclined as it has been done in other threads.

Although I can see your point, and see the point of many others when comparing image quality, I think the estimation of "decades away" is WAY off target.

MOST people can't see a difference between a 1080p MKV and a BD. If some people can, then that's a difference story. But the technology to bring these disc-less movies into the home is here today. Which was the point of my post.

I don't really think that there is anything BEYOND BD that will exist in the consumer market. There may be some new technologies that will cram terabytes onto disc media, and these could be used to store your downloads, but I don't think that we're going to see a consumer replacement for BD anytime soon, if ever.

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by Chazcov08

Sorry, but this is here today. Have you ever seen a movie ripped from a BD and re-encoded as an H.264 MKV file? Indistinguishable from the original, and less than 9GB.

People trade these online like mp3s.

I'm not promoting this, I'm just letting you know that "decades away" is yesterday. I'm happy to watch BD movies on my PS3, but the future is now.

If they had some sort of pay-per-download of these high-def movies, someone would make a killing.

I think that downloads are pretty good, but you have to consider that real HD downloads are not going to happen anytime soon. Real 1080p at 40 mbps bit-rate with uncompressed would take several hours even at the highest speeds.

Reality is you can't replace hard media. The idea of licensing and using a stationary unit is not typical for people who go to a friends house to watch movies. What are you going to do, relicense the movie at the friend's house. What about lending movies? What about watching it in a different room in the house. Network? Probably will require another license. It just doesn't work with typical patterns of viewing.

The beauty of downloadable content is instantly accessible movies that take up no physical space. The problem is that what happens if your machine fries. Apple is still working that kink out with iTunes. Imagine the loss of a whole movie collection.

Some benefits and a lot of disdvantages to digital downloads. I just can't believe the media is stupid enough to say, "it happend with music, so it's going to happen with movies". Have these idiots observed that people listen to music casually and therefore it can be portable? That's why MP3 players won. It's not as if people said, "Oh God! My CD collection is taking up too much room". [/RANT]

[supersix4]

yikes I hope people dont think downloads will become the new standard not unless net prices drop not everyone can afford 30+mbps down tons of people havent even made the switch to the cable speed of like 4-6 ... and who wants to watch movies on their comps not me

[Dragonraine]

eventually it will be feasible. Hell 10 years ago, the best you could get in your home was like ISDN.

[supersix4]

Originally Posted by jubei29

Considering COMBINED HD-DVD/Blu Ray sales on a month per month basis didn't beat out VHS (impossible to even find these days) until August of 07, I'm saying it doesn't have enough time to catch standard DVD. Niche market is the best it'll be, but that doesn't mean you can't enjoy the hell out of it until the next big thing comes along. Tech moves a lot faster now a days compared to the VHS days.

VHS ----Laserdisc(bridged the gap)----DVD

DVD ----BluRay(bridged the gap)----????

actually it goes dvd---- hddvd/ HD VMD (bridged the gap)---- BLU-RAY

[Sonny]

Blu-ray will be very Strong for the next 10+yrs, I guarantee it or your $$$ back.

[mightypen]

A conspiracy theorist perhaps would say that regardless of the success of blu-ray, the media and tech companies will roll out a new musthave whizzdo thingamabob in 10 years in order to charge exorbitant amounts for bleeding edge technology. Love those hi-end large margin items.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

There are a number of factors to look at to come close to the amount of years Blu-ray will probably be in use.

1. TV networks equipment upgrades (do provide digital signals to homes via government mandates). ABC, NBC, FOX, etc have spent tons of money in upgrading their infrastructure to be able to provide up to 1080p presentations of TV shows. That means using 1080 cameras like the Genesis camera (very expensive from what I heard). They have to build up a stable of these 1080 camera (or use 35mm cameras and film or better for other than live shows).

The time it takes for the industry to recoup the money invested in this venture will be KEY.

2. The movie studios upgrades. This follows VERY closely to the TV network side of things.

3. How much bandwidth is needed for FULL color depth from these Genesis cameras and 35mm and 70mm cameras. I think color depth with be the next upgrade to HD content. That will take a larger bitrate budget to realize. I don't know if more than 40MBps is required to reproduce that color depth. Maybe 100GB BDs may be necessary to achieve that for some movies or TV series.

If 1440p TVs hit the scene, will 40MBps bandwidth be enough for that content? Will 40MBps be enough to handle 1440p AND a color depth increase? I don't know, but I doubt it. Maybe we'll either go to 1440p or have maximum color depth on 1080p content, but the chances of Blu-ra having enough bandwidth to handle 1440p WITH max. color depth is slim.

4. TV manufacturers bringing higher resolution TVs to market. I believe TV manufacturers could help to accelerate the TV and movie industry to the next big resolution (maybe 1440p or 2Kp). I kind of covered this in the last paragraph.


Therefore, I would say we have, AT LEAST, a decade with Blu-ray. Anything else above that depends more on the 4 factors I listed above.

[Chazcov08]

Originally Posted by supersix14

yikes I hope people dont think downloads will become the new standard not unless net prices drop not everyone can afford 30+mbps down tons of people havent even made the switch to the cable speed of like 4-6 ... and who wants to watch movies on their comps not me

I watch a lot of movies on my computer. Of course my computer monitor is a front projected 1080p Epson Home Cinema projector on a 92" screen.

If you have an HDTV, then you have a LARGE computer monitor. Unless you have a 19" HDTV.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by Dragonraine

You always post the funniest stuff. I swear you cant possibly believe what you say, it has to be jokes.

My original comments:

NO. Blu-Ray will have at least DOUBLE the VHS life span as there are to be no new broadcasts standards in North America until 2040-2050 and Blu-Ray would still stick around 15+ years after those broadcasts standards are in place. You're probably looking at about 65 years IMHO (2070).

NOT a joke here's why:

1) Transition from VHS/Laserdisc to DVD happened because:
-there had to be a transition from ANALOG to DIGITAL (both VHS & Laserdisc were analog formats)
-there had to be a transition to a more portable practical format (as opposed to huge ass Laserdisc and clunky VHS cassettes).

2) Transition from DVD to Blu-Ray had to happen because of the new broadcast standard that is HDTV

3) There are NO MORE valid reasons to transition to another format now

4) The next valid reason will ONLY happen when a new broadcast standard is established in North America and we are barely at the infancy of the HDTV era.

5) The next broadcast standard is Super Hi-Vision (8K) and is NOT coming until 2040-2050 (in North America).

6) DOWNLOADS ARE NOT THE FUTURE! By the time downloads even become somewhat mainstream, Blu-Ray will have such an overwhelming presence and be so inexpensive that it will not be threatened by crappy quality downloads. By the time the quality of downloads reaches Blu-Ray quality (audio & video) Blu-Ray will simply SHARE a market with downloads (IMHO the VAST majority of the population will and ALWAYS will prefer a physicall format).

7) TV's in peoples homes are going to be 2K (1920 X 1080) for a very VERY long time. There is absolutely NO REASON for the masses to change their HDTV's until a new higher end broadcast standard is established.

8) The previous broadcast standard was established in 1950 and is still going strong today even though HDTV was introduced in 1998.

During its campaign for FCC approval, CBS gave the first demonstrations of color television to the American general public, showing an hour of color programs daily Mondays through Saturdays, beginning January 12, 1950,

9) If DVD had came out in the early 60's... it would still be going strong today as their would have been NO REASON to change it for something else... EXACTLY the same reason why there will be NO reason to change Blu-Ray until approx 2050 when/if a new higher end broadcast standard becomes established in North America and a sufficient amount of homes have adopted new TV's supporting the new specification.

10) DVD's have been around for 10 years and will last another 10 until COMPLETELY being replaced by Blu-Ray. With Blu-Ray around as the highest quality form of movie media for the next 40 years, I believe it will take an additional 20 years for it to go away even after the introduction of something better... hence my predicion of 2070

All I can say is that I sincerely hope we are all around in 2070 to continue arguing about this



P.S. You Microsoft loving, no logic having, "Downloads are the Future" fantards can start poking holes at my theories now

2nd P.S. Movie studios will still find ways to make you spend your money with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th editions Super, Duper, Magical, Extended, Director's Cut & The Son of the Director's cut editions

[Sonny]

^^^^Sorry but I wont be here in 2070 & F**K DL's & M$ & Toshitba & HDDIC* SUC*ING DUD's & F**K the BUBBLE they live in

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by Sonny

^^^^Sorry but I wont be here in 2070 & F**K DL's & M$ & Toshitba & HDDIC* SUC*ING DUD's & F**K the BUBBLE they live in

If I make it ... i'll be close to 100



P.S. I might die before Blu-Ray does but I bet I make it to see the next format in 2050

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Now, THAT is funny!

[PeteS]

unreal1080p - have to agree.
Blu-ray certainly has a long future ahead of it.

Yoda said something like "Clouded with emotion, the future is."

Blu-ray is both a storage medium and a video format. Even downloads need somewhere to be stored. BD-R is a great storage format.
If the medium changes, as I expect it eventually will, probably to something solid state avoiding moving parts, the format (even on solid state optical media) itself can remain.

Then, there's the unexpected. see Technologicial Singularity www.singularity.org which I think is just a way for technologists to say "It's too hard to see past AI." Most Singularity predictions are about 1 to 2 decades out - within Blu-ray's lifespan. But what that really means is that Blu-ray survives at least until we can't predict anymore.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

That makes more sense, but 40+ years is just short of madness.

[Dragonraine]

LOL, so you really think there wont be a storage format bigger than 50gb in the next 60+ years! OMGWTFBBQ! Someone will come out with something that has a higher capacity than BD and eventually things will move to that format. Most formats last for about 10-20 years. Hell, you still need to compress a movie to fit it onto BD. Until you can dump a movie onto a disc with no compression at all, there will always be a new format waiting in the wings.

[Mikeblu]

Originally Posted by smurfy

Since downloads that match the quality of BD are decades away, and there's really no reason to switch to whatever comes next (we have 100GB quad layer discs that work in already released players if we need them), I think we could have Blu-Ray with us for at least twenty years if not more. There are HVDs and PCDs being developed that would allow 50 terabytes of storage on a single layer, but I think Blu-Ray will be the last popular physical media, before downloads replace it decades from now.

It's a Blu future.

Can I just say I was the first one on the forum to mention HVDs, PCDs, LS-Rs and HD VMDs.

Just something I wanted to point out.