Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by dieheart

After they just ****ed over everyone who has a 100+ dvd collection, blu ray better last 10+ years period.

When did the DVDs stop working?

Gary

[PuzZLeR]

Tuned in to this thread late, but have to address a point from early on:

Originally Posted by Dragonraine

Hell, you still need to compress a movie to fit it onto BD. Until you can dump a movie onto a disc with no compression at all, there will always be a new format waiting in the wings.

Regardless of physical storage capacities or video stream formats that may, or may not be available, in the future, don't ever expect movie studios to ever put a direct Master Source onto a disc, or via download, for purchase. You will always be buying a, albiet somewhat, diluted version of it in one form or another.

Storage mediums may get bigger, video streams may get more efficient, but the Master will always be one step ahead in quality and size. And the rate of improvement of these Masters will dictate the market's need for better formats.

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by nycomet

Name some titles from that era that U want on BD. Little Rascals?

Talkies started in 1929. The Phantom of the Opera with Lon Chaney Sr.
Charlie Chaplin movies, London after Midnight with Lon Chany Sr., Metropolis.

[nycomet]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

Talkies started in 1929. The Phantom of the Opera with Lon Chaney Sr.
Charlie Chaplin movies, London after Midnight with Lon Chany Sr., Metropolis.

Now I am scared. Are you 20 years old or 50?

Whatever. Time is irrelevant. I will simply shove you in Captain Janeway's wormhole. Then we'll be the same age. Then we can go to ToyzR-us and get a PlayStation 1. I challenge U to PONG.

[jw]

Originally Posted by dieheart

After they just ****ed over everyone who has a 100+ dvd collection, blu ray better last 10+ years period.

My dvd player still works as well and to make things better BD players play DVDs Your technolgy is safe. I have alot of TVonDVD and dont want to lose them and have no desire to rebuy them on blu-ray as most are 80s90s TV with PQ not being a must for them

Originally Posted by nycomet

Now I am scared. Are you 20 years old or 50?

Whatever. Time is irrelevant. I will simply shove you in Captain Janeway's wormhole. The we'll be the same age. Then we can go to ToyzR-us and get a PlayStation 1. I challenge U to PONG.

lol, I have a PSOne with 74 games, just cant seem to part with them as it still works and there is very little resale value

[LiveFree/DieWithRed]

no, because new things come out so fast now a days

[Kristin Simard]

In one sense, I think BDs will have a longer life span than VHS. VHS deteriorates slightly with each pass. This is not so with BD. At least not at anywhere near the same rate as VHS.

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by nycomet

Now I am scared. Are you 20 years old or 50?

Whatever. Time is irrelevant. I will simply shove you in Captain Janeway's wormhole. Then we'll be the same age. Then we can go to ToyzR-us and get a PlayStation 1. I challenge U to PONG.

LOL! Neither. Just a student of film. Whats Pong? I'm getting the 80gig this June. Is Pong playable on the PS3? I hear some of the older PS1, 2 games can only be played on the 60gig?

[PuzZLeR]

Originally Posted by jwbbud

My dvd player still works as well and to make things better BD players play DVDs Your technolgy is safe. I have alot of TVonDVD and dont want to lose them and have no desire to rebuy them on blu-ray as most are 80s90s TV with PQ not being a must for them

Keep in mind though, the DvD playback ability is not within the BD standard. It's only available as a convenience feature and a means to smooth the transition into the mass market. This DvD decoding ability, in theory, is actually almost a separate built-in DvD player inside (such as a red laser) and has very little to do with BD.

There is no guarantee that DvDs will forever playback on BD units in the long run - especially when the market evolves, competition grows, and costs need to be slashed.

Nothing plays floppy diskettes today. You will hardly find a new car stereo that plays cassettes... I can go on. It's happened before. It's not safe. (However software will be able to convert it easily in the future...).

[punkguy03]

Well the ps3 as we all know plays dvd's and i dont think the companies at least for now will make it so u cant watch your dvd.The upscaling is a great feature, but as to it lasting as long as vhs i could see that. I mean the next thing will probably be 3d or sumthing.

[Rabidhunter]

The consumer cannot handle a change right away. Any change in format within the next ten years would cause riots. I personally would be upset. We are just now stabilizing with our HDTV's. It would be unwise to push a new format soon. Buisness will need to realize this.

[mdm1699]

I think that this is a shallow comparison. VHS was cumbersome. Rewinding and Fast-forwarding was a pain. There were too bulky to tote in large quantities. It is similar to audio cassettes. Blu-rays, CDs, DVDs, are easier to tote around in folders and more convenient to use. As for movie downloads, the masses are not that tech savy and are really more concerned with the physical media. There are too many bitter people wasting time talking about blu-ray lifespan. They should spend that time enjoying Apple downloads and cable. Oh wait! They don't because the quality is less than blu-ray. Shucks!

[mdm1699]

Don't even mention ripping the reel from the cassette. The headaches!

[Beta Man]

Look at the time-spans some of you guys are talking about, and consider this. During these time-frames, the INTERNET was "invented" so even saying downloads etc. is the next "thing" there could be technologies we have yet to even consider that are being developed......... and to whoever said 65 years, New technologies will be theorized, and created in that time.....

[SpaceDog]

Technology improves at an exponential rate. New technology adoption is also exponential. The biggest reason why Blu Ray will last a while is that the infrastructure for broadcast will likely be around for a while.

I am at a point myself where I wonder if I NEED my movies to be much better at home than they are now. However, it may just take a good demo to convince me .

Twelve years ago I thought DVD was the end all be all, and that was on an SD TV.

[sparksj]

Here is my two cents on this (okay, maybe a dollar's worth) .

1. Please quit worrying about the next big thing... We just got Blu Ray. Can we at least enjoy that for a while. I've never seen anyone drive home in a new Porsche and say, "Man, my next car is going to be really cool". Lets just slow down a bit.

2. HD Downloads - It's really common sense. Downloads will replace the percentage of rentals that we watch alone at home, but BM /on line physical media rentals or purchases will always be available for times when we need it to be protable. (Unless they allow movies to be stored on an Ipod like device that is protable. But that would require 8 TB of capacity to store at least 100 movies or so).

3. Physical Media - This will always be around. Even I have recently gotten in to extra content and commentaries. I never watched them on DVD befor. There are still a lot of things that on line downloads can't offer. Not to mention the fact that physical media and downloads will progress at the same time. If downloads are 10 times faster in 8 years, then you can also count on physical media being 10 time better in 8 years too.

4. As always, there are certian movies people only want to see once (rent), and there are those they want to see multiple times (pruchase). There will always be room for both. Downloads are more likely to replace rentals.

So we can all relax and enjoy the show any way we want to.

[quexos]

New formats lifespan is shorter and shorter as new stuff comes out faster and sooner, so I give Bluray 10 years before something else comes out successfully. Not to say that Blu is gone as soon as the new stuff is there. it takes years for transition so, total life i'd say 15 years for Blu

[supersix4]

Originally Posted by sparksj

(Unless they allow movies to be stored on an Ipod like device that is protable. But that would require 8 TB of capacity to store at least 100 movies or so).

.

There will always be room for both. Downloads are more likely to replace rentals.

I semi I agree in that not only would you be paying for the Ipod like device(s) since 8tb would be alot for an Ipod like device, the problem is high speed net hasnt even become the "standard" here in amercia and I dont think in many places and were only talking like dsl- 6mb cable

like I said before at max speed 6mb constant a 50gb blu-ray * 1024 = 51200

51200/6mbps= 8533 seconds / 60 seconds in a min. = 142 min per movie dl good luck if a box set comes out

this is not taking into account mass downloading on a new movie day or like most people not getting there max speed I pay for 30mbps down and only get 30.1-27mbps... maybe in the far future this could happen but I doubt in the next 10-20 years... cable and dsl havent even become standard when that happens wake me up lol

[Guinness]

Blu-ray may have a longer life however:

1. It will never match the impact of VHS, which became the defacto first standard for prerecorded video widely adopted by consumers.

2. It will never match the market penetration of VHS, as video downloads in quality acceptable to most consumers at a reasonable price and in a convenient process will be available before this thread is terminated.

[sparksj]

Originally Posted by supersix4

I semi I agree in that not only would you be paying for the Ipod like device(s) since 8tb would be alot for an Ipod like device, the problem is high speed net hasnt even become the "standard" here in amercia and I dont think in many places and were only talking like dsl- 6mb cable

like I said before at max speed 6mb constant a 50gb blu-ray * 1024 = 51200

51200/6mbps= 8533 seconds / 60 seconds in a min. = 142 min per movie dl good luck if a box set comes out

this is not taking into account mass downloading on a new movie day or like most people not getting there max speed I pay for 30mbps down and only get 30.1-27mbps... maybe in the far future this could happen but I doubt in the next 10-20 years... cable and dsl havent even become standard when that happens wake me up lol

Good point. They would have to create some super high speed download option. Even then you would more than likely have to go to a store to download it because the web would be too slow.

Just and FYI, I was being a bit sarcastic on the ipod thing. 8 TB would be a lot to fit in to that machine. But we never know what the future holds. Even then, we would probably still buy the Blu Rays and use those to load the movie on the Ipod.