Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[haste]

downloads with this?


HAH!.

10 years.

[Blu Haze]

Originally Posted by unreal1080p

My original comments:



NOT a joke here's why:

1) Transition from VHS/Laserdisc to DVD happened because:
-there had to be a transition from ANALOG to DIGITAL (both VHS & Laserdisc were analog formats)
-there had to be a transition to a more portable practical format (as opposed to huge ass Laserdisc and clunky VHS cassettes).

2) Transition from DVD to Blu-Ray had to happen because of the new broadcast standard that is HDTV

3) There are NO MORE valid reasons to transition to another format now

4) The next valid reason will ONLY happen when a new broadcast standard is established in North America and we are barely at the infancy of the HDTV era.

5) The next broadcast standard is Super Hi-Vision (8K) and is NOT coming until 2040-2050 (in North America).

6) DOWNLOADS ARE NOT THE FUTURE! By the time downloads even become somewhat mainstream, Blu-Ray will have such an overwhelming presence and be so inexpensive that it will not be threatened by crappy quality downloads. By the time the quality of downloads reaches Blu-Ray quality (audio & video) Blu-Ray will simply SHARE a market with downloads (IMHO the VAST majority of the population will and ALWAYS will prefer a physicall format).

7) TV's in peoples homes are going to be 2K (1920 X 1080) for a very VERY long time. There is absolutely NO REASON for the masses to change their HDTV's until a new higher end broadcast standard is established.

8) The previous broadcast standard was established in 1950 and is still going strong today even though HDTV was introduced in 1998.



9) If DVD had came out in the early 60's... it would still be going strong today as their would have been NO REASON to change it for something else... EXACTLY the same reason why there will be NO reason to change Blu-Ray until approx 2050 when/if a new higher end broadcast standard becomes established in North America and a sufficient amount of homes have adopted new TV's supporting the new specification.

10) DVD's have been around for 10 years and will last another 10 until COMPLETELY being replaced by Blu-Ray. With Blu-Ray around as the highest quality form of movie media for the next 40 years, I believe it will take an additional 20 years for it to go away even after the introduction of something better... hence my predicion of 2070

All I can say is that I sincerely hope we are all around in 2070 to continue arguing about this



P.S. You Microsoft loving, no logic having, "Downloads are the Future" fantards can start poking holes at my theories now

2nd P.S. Movie studios will still find ways to make you spend your money with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th editions Super, Duper, Magical, Extended, Director's Cut & The Son of the Director's cut editions

Are you trying to make me cry. People dont even see a reason to switch to Blu ray with a HDTV. So why would everyone switch which will not happen that soon then stay with it. Blu ray is good but its not the hugest technology jump the world has seen.

If i have to wait 70 years to get a blu ray player for 10 bucks like DVD is there must be a world wide drought and everyone would be broke as ****. The end.

[Chaka]

Blu-ray will start to fizzle and die one year after George Lucas decides to release the StarWars trilogy.

End of story.

[Marcusarilius]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Blu-ray will start to fizzle and die one year after George Lucas decides to release the StarWars trilogy.

End of story.

Sounds about right. Sometimes when I think about the long delay Lucas subjected us to (Released on Laser first though) on DVD, and then the overabundant waterfall of various double dip versions, I get tired of his non-commital to the latest and greatest movie format and don't even give a rat's ass anymore.

Who am I kidding right? True. I just prefere he not wait as long for the BD releases of Star Wars as he did for DVD.

Star Wars isn't the only game in town, and there are so many better films available and will be available for BD. He sure acts like the Universe begins and ends with Star Wars though.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

Sounds about right. Sometimes when I think about the long delay Lucas subjected us to (Released on Laser first though) on DVD, and then the overabundant waterfall of various double dip versions, I get tired of his non-commital to the latest and greatest movie format and don't even give a rat's ass anymore.

Who am I kidding right? True. I just prefere he not wait as long for the BD releases of Star Wars as he did for DVD.

Star Wars isn't the only game in town, and there are so many better films available and will be available for BD. He sure acts like the Universe begins and ends with Star Wars though.

Lucas, like Disney create their own market and demand. I fuggen hate them yet I can't stop buying almost every piece of junk that comes out. I need help. I am glad someone understood what I was saying though. Lucas will put out on the media when the lifecycle is near its end. Almost makes me wonder if he gets paid extra to resuscitate the format when it slows down.

[Blu Haze]

Disney are money makin niggos.

[TwiSted Mind]

im going with 7 to 8 years

[tron3]

Originally Posted by sparksj

Here is my two cents on this (okay, maybe a dollar's worth) .

1. Please quit worrying about the next big thing... We just got Blu Ray. Can we at least enjoy that for a while. I've never seen anyone drive home in a new Porsche and say, "Man, my next car is going to be really cool". Lets just slow down a bit.

2. HD Downloads - It's really common sense. Downloads will replace the percentage of rentals that we watch alone at home, but BM /on line physical media rentals or purchases will always be available for times when we need it to be protable. (Unless they allow movies to be stored on an Ipod like device that is protable. But that would require 8 TB of capacity to store at least 100 movies or so).

3. Physical Media - This will always be around. Even I have recently gotten in to extra content and commentaries. I never watched them on DVD befor. There are still a lot of things that on line downloads can't offer. Not to mention the fact that physical media and downloads will progress at the same time. If downloads are 10 times faster in 8 years, then you can also count on physical media being 10 time better in 8 years too.

4. As always, there are certian movies people only want to see once (rent), and there are those they want to see multiple times (pruchase). There will always be room for both. Downloads are more likely to replace rentals.

So we can all relax and enjoy the show any way we want to.

You must have been reading some of my older threads and responses. In any case, great minds think alike.

[highdefw]

I give it 15 years tops.... Then everything goes to digital downloads.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by Blu Haze

Blu ray is good but its not the hugest technology jump the world has seen.

DVD = 345 600 pixels native INTERLACED (720 X 480i)

Blu-Ray = 2 073 600 pixels native PROGRESSIVE (1920 X 1080P24)

Not the hugest technology jump the world has seen

Originally Posted by Blu Haze

If i have to wait 70 years to get a blu ray player for 10 bucks like DVD is there must be a world wide drought and everyone would be broke as ****. The end.

I have news for you: You will NEVER be able to purchase a Blu-Ray player for "10 bucks" the shipping and the packaging materials alone cost more then that

I think Red Ant Country is missing an ant (March 2008 join)

[Raf008]

my prediction: 20-23 years !

[BlackLightShark009]

Is it worth panicking bout so suddenly?? It seems very pointless. Also i really doubt downloads will take over. We been able to dl how long now? Just enjoy BD since its here now. Not like we did'nt advance past vhs! Be greatful.

[TK421]

Originally Posted by Marcusarilius

LOL! Neither. Just a student of film. Whats Pong? I'm getting the 80gig this June. Is Pong playable on the PS3? I hear some of the older PS1, 2 games can only be played on the 60gig?

I would have to agree with you. I own a 60gb PS3 and it works great, I will be getting standalone players for the rest of the rooms in our house, but the PRICE must come down. If the vendors really want to see a boost to BLU-RAY in the future.

It's going to be a long time yet for SD DVD's.

[ehaser]

My prediction?

Digital formats such as Blu-ray and DVD will last as long as players and computers with the codec to play them do.

[Anthony P]

Keep in mind though, the DvD playback ability is not within the BD standard. It's only available as a convenience feature and a means to smooth the transition into the mass market. This DvD decoding ability, in theory, is actually almost a separate built-in DvD player inside (such as a red laser) and has very little to do with BD.

true but wrong. DVD is not in BD specs, but BD-9 (red layer disk that has the same physical specs as DVD and plays back the same as DVD with the addition of extra functionality) is part of the specs. So in a round about way DVD is part of the BD specs.

[cktb2793]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle3689881.ece

Coming soon: superfast internet

THE internet could soon be made obsolete. The scientists who pioneered it have now built a lightning-fast replacement capable of downloading entire feature films within seconds.

At speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection, “the grid” will be able to send the entire Rolling Stones back catalogue from Britain to Japan in less than two seconds.

The latest spin-off from Cern, the particle physics centre that created the web, the grid could also provide the kind of power needed to transmit holographic images; allow instant online gaming with hundreds of thousands of players; and offer high-definition video telephony for the price of a local call.

David Britton, professor of physics at Glasgow University and a leading figure in the grid project, believes grid technologies could “revolutionise” society. “With this kind of computing power, future generations will have the ability to collaborate and communicate in ways older people like me cannot even imagine,” he said.

The power of the grid will become apparent this summer after what scientists at Cern have termed their “red button” day - the switching-on of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the new particle accelerator built to probe the origin of the universe. The grid will be activated at the same time to capture the data it generates.

One of the most potent is so-called dynamic switching, which creates a dedicated channel for internet users trying to download large volumes of data such as films. In theory this would give a standard desktop computer the ability to download a movie in five seconds rather than the current three hours or so.

[RazorFromHRSnet]

I dont forsee downloads replacing disc media for sell-through titles, but I could see downloads replacing movie rentals if it gets that easy. For rentals most people are not quite as concerned over PQ & SQ, extras, etc. They just want to see the movie, and for the average renter, a 1080i movie with DD5.1 is plenty cool, whereas for us, we want 1080p hi bitrate with PCM or DTS-MA audio, commentary, bonues, etc... oh and we want a big shelf full of them

[Buggy166]

Originally Posted by unreal1080p

NO. Blu-Ray will have at least DOUBLE the VHS life span as there are to be no new broadcasts standards in North America until 2040-2050 and Blu-Ray would still stick around 15+ years after those broadcasts standards are in place. You're probably looking at about 65 years IMHO (2070).

holographic displays (think star wars) are due for big firms to use as a form of advertisements in Vegas casinos starting in 2010 with a nice 8 figure sum.

blu ray has at best 10-15 years until something new appears.

[Buggy166]

Originally Posted by RazorFromHRSnet

I dont forsee downloads replacing disc media for sell-through titles, but I could see downloads replacing movie rentals if it gets that easy. For rentals most people are not quite as concerned over PQ & SQ, extras, etc. They just want to see the movie, and for the average renter, a 1080i movie with DD5.1 is plenty cool, whereas for us, we want 1080p hi bitrate with PCM or DTS-MA audio, commentary, bonues, etc... oh and we want a big shelf full of them

they already have that...PPV and VOD (video on demand)...and its been around since..03 ?

depending on the area or provider.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by Buggy166

holographic displays (think star wars) are due for big firms to use as a form of advertisements in Vegas casinos starting in 2010 with a nice 8 figure sum.

blu ray has at best 10-15 years until something new appears.

Something new will always "appear" every few years...

Check this out:

http://www.foresight.org/nanodot/?p=2706

Nanotechnology researchers in Australia are developing a format for optical disk recording that they expect will be able to store as much as a petabyte on one disk—20,000 times as much as on one Blu-ray Disc—and which they say could be in commercial use within 10 years.

But you still won't see a BETTER domestic movie format then Blu-Ray until approx 2050